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richig07
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… Obviously if you're busy pouting, and you just want to dump the season and lose out. You don't care, understandable. Move along, nothing to see here. But if you're like me and (I think) a few others on here, and you realize the SLIM odds of this team actually winning out… but are still curious to see where that would put us. Than here you go!
Current NFC Wild Card Standings:
#5 Seed (WC #1): Dallas Cowboys 8-3 (5-3 CONF)
#6 Seed (WC #2): Detroit Lions 7-4 (5-2 CONF)
--------------------------------------------
7th - Seattle Seahawks 7-4 (5-2 CONF) Detroit wins tiebreaker over Seattle on strength of victory
8th - San Francisco 7-4 (4-3 CONF)
9th - Chicago Bears 5-6 (4-3 CONF)
As you can see, the Bears are two back of Detroit, Seattle and San Francisco for the final NFC wild card spot. Three back of Dallas for the #5 seed and first WC spot.
Looking at the Bears schedule moving forward (Two games against Detroit and one vs Dallas), the Bears have a rare opportunity to secure tiebreakers over every other team in the wild card hunt. I say "rare" because I swear that every year in recent memory, the Bears have NEVER done themselves any favors with important tie breakers.
They have beaten San Francisco head-to-head, and if they are to win out they will have beaten Detroit twice and Dallas in their lone head-to-head matchup. As for Seattle, if the Bears/Seahawks tie breaker were to come into play. They would both be at 10-6, meaning that the Bears will have run the table against a five game slate of NFC opponents, while Seattle lost twice in their five game slate which is ALSO against all NFC opponents. The Bears will be 9-3 in conference, and Seattle would be 8-4. Advantage goes to Chicago.
So, in order to secure a playoff spot, the Bears will need to pass NOT ALL… but THREE OF THESE FOUR TEAMS ahead of them in the wild card hunt. Here's what they would have to do to pass each individual team...
Dallas: Win out (beating Dallas once), Dallas loses two other games.
vs PHI
@CHI (Doesn't count as one of the two necessary games, since we're assuming the Bears win out here)
@PHI
vs IND
@WSH
BEST CHANCE TO FIND THE HELP: Bears take care of business head-to-head at home. Dallas loses two of three to PHI x2 and IND.
Detroit: Win out. If the Bears win out, they will have beaten Detroit twice and gained the two games necessary while securing the head-to-head tiebreaker. Pretty simple. The Bears "control their own destiny" against the Lions. Showing their schedule isn't really necessary.
NO HELP NEEDED
Seattle and SF: As with every scenario we're talking about here. The Bears need to win out, and they also would need two Seattle/SF losses to pass them. This would give the Bears head-to-head against SF and a better conference record than each team.
Seattle Schedule:
@SF
@PHI
vs SF
@ARI
vs STL
BEST CHANCE TO FIND THE HELP: Pretty tough schedule. I suppose with SF and SEA still playing each other twice, you have to hope they split. Which will give each team one of the two necessary losses. Seattle could easily lose @PHI, @ARI… and hell… STL has proved to be pesky. That's not a walk over.
San Fran Schedule:
vs SEA
@OAK
@SEA
vs SD
vs ARI
BEST CHANCE TO FIND THE HELP: Another tough schedule. As mentioned for Seattle, it's probably best if these guys split the two games with each other. Then, vs SD and vs ARI. Very lose able games.
So, basically… in conclusion. The Bears do need some outside help, no doubt. However, it DOES look like that if they do stumble upon a miracle and win out, that they have very nice shot at making the playoffs.
… the only problem is, they very likely will not win out. And this thread (if I had to bet on it) will have been a complete waste of time for me come just a couple of days from now on Thanksgiving.
As long as the Bears keep on winning, I'll update the playoff scenarios weekly. Let's pray for a miracle!
EDIT: If you want to tinker with the schedule and outcomes of the final games yourself. Creating your own scenarios of how things could play out . Here's a link to ESPN's NFL Playoff Machine Simulator: http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
If you're unfamiliar with this, it's pretty cool for NFL geeks trying to figure out detailed playoff scenarios. All of the tiebreakers are calculated into the system, so you don't have to think about much. Just pick your winners, and it will update the playoff picture accordingly.
Current NFC Wild Card Standings:
#5 Seed (WC #1): Dallas Cowboys 8-3 (5-3 CONF)
#6 Seed (WC #2): Detroit Lions 7-4 (5-2 CONF)
--------------------------------------------
7th - Seattle Seahawks 7-4 (5-2 CONF) Detroit wins tiebreaker over Seattle on strength of victory
8th - San Francisco 7-4 (4-3 CONF)
9th - Chicago Bears 5-6 (4-3 CONF)
As you can see, the Bears are two back of Detroit, Seattle and San Francisco for the final NFC wild card spot. Three back of Dallas for the #5 seed and first WC spot.
Looking at the Bears schedule moving forward (Two games against Detroit and one vs Dallas), the Bears have a rare opportunity to secure tiebreakers over every other team in the wild card hunt. I say "rare" because I swear that every year in recent memory, the Bears have NEVER done themselves any favors with important tie breakers.
They have beaten San Francisco head-to-head, and if they are to win out they will have beaten Detroit twice and Dallas in their lone head-to-head matchup. As for Seattle, if the Bears/Seahawks tie breaker were to come into play. They would both be at 10-6, meaning that the Bears will have run the table against a five game slate of NFC opponents, while Seattle lost twice in their five game slate which is ALSO against all NFC opponents. The Bears will be 9-3 in conference, and Seattle would be 8-4. Advantage goes to Chicago.
So, in order to secure a playoff spot, the Bears will need to pass NOT ALL… but THREE OF THESE FOUR TEAMS ahead of them in the wild card hunt. Here's what they would have to do to pass each individual team...
Dallas: Win out (beating Dallas once), Dallas loses two other games.
vs PHI
@CHI (Doesn't count as one of the two necessary games, since we're assuming the Bears win out here)
@PHI
vs IND
@WSH
BEST CHANCE TO FIND THE HELP: Bears take care of business head-to-head at home. Dallas loses two of three to PHI x2 and IND.
Detroit: Win out. If the Bears win out, they will have beaten Detroit twice and gained the two games necessary while securing the head-to-head tiebreaker. Pretty simple. The Bears "control their own destiny" against the Lions. Showing their schedule isn't really necessary.
NO HELP NEEDED
Seattle and SF: As with every scenario we're talking about here. The Bears need to win out, and they also would need two Seattle/SF losses to pass them. This would give the Bears head-to-head against SF and a better conference record than each team.
Seattle Schedule:
@SF
@PHI
vs SF
@ARI
vs STL
BEST CHANCE TO FIND THE HELP: Pretty tough schedule. I suppose with SF and SEA still playing each other twice, you have to hope they split. Which will give each team one of the two necessary losses. Seattle could easily lose @PHI, @ARI… and hell… STL has proved to be pesky. That's not a walk over.
San Fran Schedule:
vs SEA
@OAK
@SEA
vs SD
vs ARI
BEST CHANCE TO FIND THE HELP: Another tough schedule. As mentioned for Seattle, it's probably best if these guys split the two games with each other. Then, vs SD and vs ARI. Very lose able games.
So, basically… in conclusion. The Bears do need some outside help, no doubt. However, it DOES look like that if they do stumble upon a miracle and win out, that they have very nice shot at making the playoffs.
… the only problem is, they very likely will not win out. And this thread (if I had to bet on it) will have been a complete waste of time for me come just a couple of days from now on Thanksgiving.
As long as the Bears keep on winning, I'll update the playoff scenarios weekly. Let's pray for a miracle!
EDIT: If you want to tinker with the schedule and outcomes of the final games yourself. Creating your own scenarios of how things could play out . Here's a link to ESPN's NFL Playoff Machine Simulator: http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
If you're unfamiliar with this, it's pretty cool for NFL geeks trying to figure out detailed playoff scenarios. All of the tiebreakers are calculated into the system, so you don't have to think about much. Just pick your winners, and it will update the playoff picture accordingly.
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