How to handle Hisashi Iwakuma

[seahawksfan234]

I post this thread because I was responding to PolarVortex's thread and the topic of Iwakuma was mentioned and I feel like it deserves it's own thread.

At his best, I believe Iwakuma is a top 10 starter in MLB. He showed that a few years back when he posted a 2.66 ERA. The only issue is, his health. He has only one year in which he has started more than 28 games, and when he has played hurt - he looked bad.

That being said, he rejected the qualifying offer ($14m), and MLBTR has his projected contract at a surprising (IMO) 3 years $45m. That's $15m a year for a guy who has the potential to be completely lights out, but also has the potential to sit out a quarter of the year with injuries.

I personally wouldn't give him a contract beyond two years unless it was a third year option, and this is coming from someone who probably thinks more highly of him than anyone else on this website. There are other guys out there who are not as good as Iwakuma when he's healthy, but have a much stronger track record of routinely making 30 starts a year. When you're going to tie up $15m a year over 3 years in a player, I feel like you need that type of consistency without making a serious gamble. Iwakuma very well could start 33 games next year and throw out a 2.60 ERA, but he just as well could miss half the season. He's not getting any younger and his injuries are not going to become any less frequent.

That being said, should we re-sign Iwakuma at around $15m per year? At what point is his asking price too much?

 

[seahawksfan234]

Man, I'm looking at some of these projected contracts. Some of these guys who are expected to get $15m per year, I feel like they wouldn't have even received $10m a few years ago. Would be interesting to do some more research on salary inflation in MLB.

 

[cezero]

I know it's not a popular opinion, but I don't see this team contending this coming year or next year unless Nintendo authorizes Dipoto another $30-40 million for FA acquisitions on top of whatever we'd pay for Iwakuma.

Spending that much on Iwakuma is a huge gamble for not a lot of payoff in terms of possible post season success during any possible contract. Again, that's my opinion, and I understand that NW and some others disagree with me.

I'm still angry that Seattle didn't trade him last year. Nobody else is going to be dumb enough to sign him for $15 mill/year or anything like that, so his natural spot was probably going to be right back here anyway, so it's not like we're gaining a draft pick out of the decision.

 

[NWinAZ]

I am ready to pass on Kuma unless it is a 1 year, $8M max deal. Not the same pitcher and isn't worth the risk. I would go with Leake or Kazmir or even make a run at Kenta Maeda

 

[seahawksfan234]

I am ready to pass on Kuma unless it is a 1 year, $8M max deal. Not the same pitcher and isn't worth the risk. I would go with Leake or Kazmir or even make a run at Kenta Maeda

Seeing as how Iwakuna rejected the qualifying offer, he's not looking for a one year deal. I'd be willing to do 2 years at $10m per, I think that's fair. I wouldn't go over two years, and much more than $10m per year is pushing it.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I know it's not a popular opinion, but I don't see this team contending this coming year or next year unless Nintendo authorizes Dipoto another $30-40 million for FA acquisitions on top of whatever we'd pay for Iwakuma.

Spending that much on Iwakuma is a huge gamble for not a lot of payoff in terms of possible post season success during any possible contract. Again, that's my opinion, and I understand that NW and some others disagree with me.

I'm still angry that Seattle didn't trade him last year. Nobody else is going to be dumb enough to sign him for $15 mill/year or anything like that, so his natural spot was probably going to be right back here anyway, so it's not like we're gaining a draft pick out of the decision.

I get the impression that for Dipoto and company they disagree with you. Otherwise they would have begun shipping out the big contracts like Cruz, Cano and maybe Felix.

That being said, based on the moves that the Mariners have made, it looks like this offseason will be one of re-tooling for the present and future instead of rebuilding from scratch.

 

[Davis_Mike]

Iwakuma is going to get $15 mil aav from someone. Anyone thinking he won't, does not understand the current economics of MLB. There is just too much money in baseball for him not to. I would offer him 2/$30 with a third vesting option based on total innings pitch over those 2 years.

The question that needs answered, are the Mariners retooling or rebuilding. If it's the latter, you let him walk & take the pick. If it's the former, you offer him a deal similar to what I proposed. Seeing as the Mariners were already willing to spend $15.8 mil for one season, I see no reason why they wouldn't resign him for a deal similar to what I listed.

 

[cezero]

Seeing as the Mariners were already willing to spend $15.8 mil for one season, I see no reason why they wouldn't resign him for a deal similar to what I listed.

You clearly don't understand the function of QO's for teams or players.

 

[cezero]

I get the impression that for Dipoto and company they disagree with you. Otherwise they would have begun shipping out the big contracts like Cruz, Cano and maybe Felix.

i'd be very surprised if he didn't float the idea around, but the fact is, not many teams could afford to take on those contracts, and the ones who could are so financially secure, they don't have to trade away the top prospects that we'd want in return. unless dipoto wants to take a big market team's 40 man roster garbage off their hands, a trade for cano or felix would be tough to swing at this point. and that's even IF cano was willing to waive his full no-trade clause, or felix was willing to waive his, which includes all of the big market teams.

there's no way dipoto is as blind as seattle fans who look at 2014 as anything but an extreme statistical anomaly. i love what he's doing in terms of setting the team up for success in 2017 and beyond. it would take a shit ton more moves for a lot of money to get this team to compete for a pennant.

 

[NWinAZ]

Iwakuma is going to get $15 mil aav from someone. Anyone thinking he won't, does not understand the current economics of MLB. There is just too much money in baseball for him not to. I would offer him 2/$30 with a third vesting option based on total innings pitch over those 2 years.

The question that needs answered, are the Mariners retooling or rebuilding. If it's the latter, you let him walk & take the pick. If it's the former, you offer him a deal similar to what I proposed. Seeing as the Mariners were already willing to spend $15.8 mil for one season, I see no reason why they wouldn't resign him for a deal similar to what I listed.

I hope you guys sign him for that.

 

[PolarVortex]

Iwakuma is going to get $15 mil aav from someone. Anyone thinking he won't, does not understand the current economics of MLB. There is just too much money in baseball for him not to. I would offer him 2/$30 with a third vesting option based on total innings pitch over those 2 years.

The question that needs answered, are the Mariners retooling or rebuilding. If it's the latter, you let him walk & take the pick. If it's the former, you offer him a deal similar to what I proposed. Seeing as the Mariners were already willing to spend $15.8 mil for one season, I see no reason why they wouldn't resign him for a deal similar to what I listed.

We don't need you to come in here and lecture us on baseball economics. We understand it. MLB baseball has been played longer in Seattle than it has in Phoenix. Hit the door, greenhorn.

 

[PolarVortex]

I hope you guys sign him for that.

LOL. Post of the Day.

 

[blstoker]

Has it been stated what the Mariners are planning on spending? I ask, because if they stay where they were in 2015 - with all the additions and players expected to make the final roster and what not, I come up with only $16 million left to spend (and that's assuming that none of the 3 arbitration players get more than they were paid last year). With only $16 million and giving $14-15 to Iwakuma, that doesn't leave much to fill in any other holes - notably C, OF, BP, UT.

Granted there is the possibility to make more moves, but the moves we have made haven't cut our payroll down, but actually increased it by over $10 million. And then there's the question of trading our top players (Hernandez, Cano, Cruz and/or Seagar) just to sign an older injury prone starting pitcher?

As for offering the qualifying offer @15.8 million. There is a difference between offering a one year deal, that makes Iwakuma a trade commodity, that was pretty evident was going to be turned down and offering multiple years at nearly the same price point.

 

[Davis_Mike]

We don't need you to come in here and lecture us on baseball economics. We understand it. MLB baseball has been played longer in Seattle than it has in Phoenix. Hit the door, greenhorn.

And no one needs you being a bitch. Yet here you are.

 

[NWinAZ]

And no one needs you being a bitch. Yet here you are.

It's all good. I just don't want him for that money.

 

[Davis_Mike]

It's all good. I just don't want him for that money.

I get that. I just think someone will give him that money considering lesser players like Estrada are getting near that amount.

 

[NWinAZ]

I get that. I just think someone will give him that money considering lesser players like Estrada are getting near that amount.

Agreed.

 

[PolarVortex]

And no one needs you being a bitch. Yet here you are.

Stop bitching, bitch.

 

[cezero]

Any team with a payroll under $170 million that signs Iwakuma for any more than 2 years at $15 million/year is very foolish.

But I guess I should apologize to the AZ fan, because it looks like it might actually happen.

If it's the M's, I'll throw my tv out the window.

 

[SeattleCoug]

If I had my way the max would be 1 year deal with an option. I know that won't happen but it's what he's worth in my mind. 2013 was his last full year. There's no guarantee he makes it through a full year as a middle of the rotation pitcher. I would bet against it in fact.

However the ownership factor looms in this situation. Wouldn't shock me if they overpaid to keep him for obvious reasons.