How long before Russell Wilson breaks the all-time record?

[Schmoopy1000]

Oh wow. My conclusion that a trade is unlikely was the right conclusion but it was 180 from my reasoning. A team isn’t going to trade for him because of how much cap percentage they’re going to inherit. They can sign him for something much more reasonable on the open market than inheriting the contract extension that hasn’t even kicked in yet.

Actually look at it as a 2 year lease & then if you want the new team could cut bait. no guarantees. Or redo contract then. Very reasonable contract for new team.
However most likely, before a trade went through. A whole new deal would probably be made.

I have just been going through the hypothetical of keeping the contract.
Those two years is an avg of 35+ mil.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

if he is traded the only thing that accelerates is the signing bonus that hasnt been paid yet. Which is three more years at 10 mil per. Which is way cheaper than paying 85 mil in dead money.
So if traded contract as is. Denver owes 30 mil to the cap, if that is all in one year or split between two or however. I am not sure.
The trading team takes the rest.

The signing bonus is more than 10 per year for three years.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

The signing bonus is more than 10 per year for three years.

View attachment 349733

I think prorated bonuses are adding the roster or other bonuses into it.
His signing bonus was 50 mil which was split between 5 years originally and 2 of those years have been paid to the cap.
Roster & other option bonuses would go with the contract if traded.
he has 8.4 mil yearly option bonuses throughout the length of his contract. Well 4.4 the final year. I think that is what you are seeing in your prorated bonuses.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think prorated bonuses are adding the roster or other bonuses into it.
His signing bonus was 50 mil which was split between 5 years originally and 2 of those years have been paid to the cap.
Roster & other option bonuses would go with the contract if traded.
he has 8.4 mil yearly option bonuses throughout the length of his contract. Well 4.4 the final year. I think that is what you are seeing in your prorated bonuses.

They show roster bonus in the next column. Here is the note about guaranteed money at signing $124 million.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

They show roster bonus in the next column. Here is the note about guaranteed money at signing $124 million.

View attachment 349736

yes guaranteed money means the player will get paid that.
Not that the original team pays it.
If traded those guarantees goes to the new team.
Now the signing bonus was paid instantly, so the original team is on the hook for that no matter what. The new team will not be.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

View attachment 349735

Your graph shows 85 million in dead cap.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Your graph shows 85 million in dead cap.

yes if cut.
Not if traded.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

yes if cut.
Not if traded.

Here what happens if traded according to OTC:



68 million and if traded in March it can't be spread over two years.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Here what happens if traded according to OTC:

View attachment 349737

68 million and if traded in March it can't be spread over two years.

How soon after the completion of the Super Bowl are teams allowed to engage in trade transactions? Seems like this would also create a super small window that would benefit the Broncos in their ability to pay dead cap over two years. That handcuffs a negotiation for a trade with that kind of deadline knowing they’ll just cut him if they can’t do it.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Here what happens if traded according to OTC:

View attachment 349737

68 million and if traded in March it can't be spread over two years.

ok.
which is not 85 million

 

[Schmoopy1000]

How soon after the completion of the Super Bowl are teams allowed to engage in trade transactions? Seems like this would also create a super small window that would benefit the Broncos in their ability to pay dead cap over two years. That handcuffs a negotiation for a trade with that kind of deadline knowing they’ll just cut him if they can’t do it.

the only way you trade for him is if you like the rest of the contract as is, or if you dont want to get in a bidding war for his services.
Other than that. You wait until he gets cut.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

ok.
which is not 85 million

It's not 30 million either and I believe RW has a no trade clause and he'll leverage that to his benefit if the Broncos want to trade him.

 

[PDay8810]

they just cut him in March

watch and see

 

[Schmoopy1000]

It's not 30 million either and I believe RW has a no trade clause and he'll leverage that to his benefit if the Broncos want to trade him.

I've already said I dont know all that will cost in a trade. but as far as the signing bonus. Only 30 mil is owed. That I do know.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

It's not 30 million either and I believe RW has a no trade clause and he'll leverage that to his benefit if the Broncos want to trade him.

If RW has a no trade clause & he thinks he get more in a new contract (very likely) Then I think he says fuck Denver & refuses to get traded, after being benched like this.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I don’t think a trade is possible. Russ has a full no trade clause and why would he or more importantly why would his agent agree to it?

I agree and I also think Russ takes the same route as Carr did last year. Not going to do the team a favor and restructure to help them find a trading partner. Straight up cut me and let me be a F.A. Also, other GMs likely are aware of this and simply won't talk to the Broncos, or at least not be willing to part with any meaningful draft pick.

 

[fastforward]

Wilson had a no-trade clause in his previous contract with the Seahawks. The Seahawks would have agreed to it in lieu of higher salaries. There is nothing to indicate that Wilson took less money from the Broncos to have a new no-trade clause.

If Wilson is cut or traded by the Broncos before the 5th day of the 2024 NFL year the Broncos will have a total cap hit of $85M in 2024 in regards to Wilson. $14M of that hit is scheduled for 2024 already. There is a further dead money total of $34M that the Broncos will have to account for at some future time. If he leaves the team before Jun 1 2024 all of that $34M will accelerate into the 2024 cap. There is also the $39M 2024 salary to account for.

No team should be interested in Wilson at $76M over 2 seasons. I estimate his value at $13-19M for 2024, (marginal starter). However, my track record with such estimations has been awful. GMs have been willing to pay far more for Wentz, (twice), Ryan, Carr, and Garoppolo than I was. Then again those GMs don't look quite so smart now.

If another team thinks Wilson is worth more than $37M for 2 years a trade is possible. At $44M for example the Broncos could pay Wilson the remaining $32M of his $76M deal and move him to the new team. This would be cheaper for the Broncos than paying $39M to cut him. This is purely an exercise in damage limitation.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Wilson had a no-trade clause in his previous contract with the Seahawks. The Seahawks would have agreed to it in lieu of higher salaries. There is nothing to indicate that Wilson took less money from the Broncos to have a new no-trade clause.

If Wilson is cut or traded by the Broncos before the 5th day of the 2024 NFL year the Broncos will have a total cap hit of $85M in 2024 in regards to Wilson. $14M of that hit is scheduled for 2024 already. There is a further dead money total of $34M that the Broncos will have to account for at some future time. If he leaves the team before Jun 1 2024 all of that $34M will accelerate into the 2024 cap. There is also the $39M 2024 salary to account for.

No team should be interested in Wilson at $76M over 2 seasons. I estimate his value at $13-19M for 2024, (marginal starter). However, my track record with such estimations has been awful. GMs have been willing to pay far more for Wentz, (twice), Ryan, Carr, and Garoppolo than I was. Then again those GMs don't look quite so smart now.

If another team thinks Wilson is worth more than $37M for 2 years a trade is possible. At $44M for example the Broncos could pay Wilson the remaining $32M of his $76M deal and move him to the new team. This would be cheaper for the Broncos than paying $39M to cut him. This is purely an exercise in damage limitation.

Wow! at a time where new QB contracts are up around 50 mil a yr.
you think russ as a starter is worth about 19 mil?
If you think your Qb is a true starter. 30 something mil is cheap nowadays. (unfortunately)

 

[fastforward]

Wow! at a time where new QB contracts are up around 50 mil a yr.
you think russ as a starter is worth about 19 mil?
If you think your Qb is a true starter. 30 something mil is cheap nowadays. (unfortunately)

Supply and demand. QBs that are better, are set as a starter because of their contract, or are cheap and have potential:

Tua Tagovailoa MIA
Brock Purdy SF
Jared Goff DET
Patrick Mahomes KC
Dak Prescott DAL
Josh Allen BUF
Trevor Lawrence JAX
Matthew Stafford LAR
Jalen Hurts PHI
C.J. Stroud HOU
Sam Howell WSH
Baker Mayfield TB
Jordan Love GB
Derek Carr NO
Lamar Jackson BAL
Geno Smith SEA
Justin Herbert LAC
Gardner Minshew IND
Bryce Young CAR
Kirk Cousins MIN
Joe Burrow CIN
Kyler Murray ARI
Ryan Tannehill TEN
Jimmy Garoppolo LV
Deshaun Watson CLE
Daniel Jones NYG
Justin Fields CHI
Kenny Pickett PIT

I might be being a bit harsh on a few others such as Winston, Darnold, Brissett, Heinicke, Taylor, Dalton, Huntley, Lock, O'Connell, Levis, Browning, etc. I have a top list of 28 names who are better options and there might be 5 potential starters coming in through the Draft. Wilson will be competing with these other QBs for maybe 4 starting jobs. Simple market forces.