How long before Russell Wilson breaks the all-time record?

[Schmoopy1000]

Fair point. If a new team is only stuck paying his salary and not the bonus then next year he would only cost the team $17M, and the following year $37M.

I havent diagnosed it. Saw a video of someone else using the 30 mil #
but the signing bonus & the money already spent wouldnt transfer over

 

[Wolvie]

I havent diagnosed it. Saw a video of someone else using the 30 mil #
but the signing bonus & the money already spent wouldnt transfer over

I was using the data from overthecap.com. Pretty sure the new team is only on the hook for his annual salary not yet earned

 

[Schmoopy1000]

I was using the data from overthecap.com. Pretty sure the new team is only on the hook for his annual salary not yet earned

think when you add the 8.4 mil option bonuses each of those years. the avg would be 35.4 mil
25.4 & 45.4
but not sure of all the particulars. The bonuses are still part of his contract (unless they renegotiate) that hasnt been paid yet.

 

[Wolvie]

think when you add the 8.4 mil option bonuses each of those years. the avg would be 35.4 mil
25.4 & 45.4
but not sure of all the particulars. The bonuses are still part of his contract (unless they renegotiate) that hasnt been paid yet.

Yeah I suppose incentive bonuses would still be applied to the new team. Haven't a clue what the particulars of his contract are.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Yeah I suppose incentive bonuses would still be applied to the new team. Haven't a clue what the particulars of his contract are.

in the video I watched the guy said the cap hit if traded would only be like 14 mil this next year. Not sure how that # came up either.
but sounds like the best option for both Russ & the broncos is to get traded.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

in the video I watched the guy said the cap hit if traded would only be like 14 mil this next year. Not sure how that # came up either.
but sounds like the best option for both Russ & the broncos is to get traded.

Seems like it but then the question becomes" is there a trade partner out there?" Which team would consider trading a 2nd or whatever. Atlanta maybe? But will teams wait until the draft and trading for Russ would be plan B? Gonna be interesting to see how all this plays out in the off-season.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Seems like it but then the question becomes" is there a trade partner out there?" Which team would consider trading a 2nd or whatever. Atlanta maybe? But will teams wait until the draft and trading for Russ would be plan B? Gonna be interesting to see how all this plays out in the off-season.

I would be of the thinking that (I am far from a trade expert) the draft choice would be a cheap one, just to get him off the books.
Which if true. Should gain plenty of phone calls to kick the tires.

 

[Wolvie]

Seems like it but then the question becomes" is there a trade partner out there?" Which team would consider trading a 2nd or whatever. Atlanta maybe? But will teams wait until the draft and trading for Russ would be plan B? Gonna be interesting to see how all this plays out in the off-season.

my guess is that they would waive Russ, and then the highest waiver claim would get his contract. Otherwise the trade would likely be trading a 6th for a 7th round pick.

 

[fastforward]

Deep breath.

Wilson is due $39M in 2024 and it's fully guaranteed. If he is cut his team will still have to pay him all of that $39M and account for it in 2024. This money is effectively sunk. Wilson is due $37M in 2025 and this figure fully guarantees on the 5th day, (early in March), of the upcoming 2024 NFL year. If he's cut after that date his team will have to pay him both the 2024 money and the 2025 money.

The 1st question is whether any of the 32 teams thinks having Wilson for 2 years is worth the $37M difference. If the answer is no then the Broncos should cut Wilson before the 2025 money becomes guaranteed. If the Broncos think he's worth at least $37M for the 2 years they will retain him into the 2024 NFL year.

Hypothetically, if the Broncos think he's worth $42M but another team thinks he's worth $50M for those 2 years then a trade is on the cards. The acquiring team could agree to pay him the last $50M and the Broncos could eat the 1st $26M.

Either way the Broncos will be cap accounting for $14M in 2024 for money already paid to Wilson in the past but not yet accounted for. Additionally there is another $32M that has been paid to Wilson in the past that hasn't yet been cap accounted for. That $32M is scheduled to count in future years. If Wilson is cut or traded before the Jun 1 2024 date all of that $32M dead money will accelerate from future years into the 2024 cap. If he's cut not only will they have to account for all of the $46M total dead money they'd also have to account for all of the $39M that he's guaranteed in 2024. If he's traded they will have to account for all of the $46M plus whatever part of the $39M for 2024 that they're eating.

Again, the starting point of interest for teams is $37M for 2 years.

This is 1 of the rare examples of where there is so much cap at stake that a team may not be able to make a purely business decision. The Broncos may be forced to keep Wilson for the next 2 seasons even if they think he's only worth $30M rather than the starting point $37M.

 

[Tahuyaman]

my guess is that they would waive Russ, and then the highest waiver claim would get his contract. Otherwise the trade would likely be trading a 6th for a 7th round pick.

If he’s released, he’s a free agent. His contract with the Broncos does not fall to the team which picks him up. He’d have to negotiate a new contract.

 

[Wolvie]

If he’s released, he’s a free agent. His contract with the Broncos does not fall to the team which picks him up. He’d have to negotiate a new contract.

assuming he clears waivers, yes

 

[Tahuyaman]

Deep breath.

Wilson is due $39M in 2024 and it's fully guaranteed. If he is cut his team will still have to pay him all of that $39M and account for it in 2024. This money is effectively sunk. Wilson is due $37M in 2025 and this figure fully guarantees on the 5th day, (early in March), of the upcoming 2024 NFL year. If he's cut after that date his team will have to pay him both the 2024 money and the 2025 money.

The 1st question is whether any of the 32 teams thinks having Wilson for 2 years is worth the $37M difference. If the answer is no then the Broncos should cut Wilson before the 2025 money becomes guaranteed. If the Broncos think he's worth at least $37M for the 2 years they will retain him into the 2024 NFL year.

Hypothetically, if the Broncos think he's worth $42M but another team thinks he's worth $50M for those 2 years then a trade is on the cards. The acquiring team could agree to pay him the last $50M and the Broncos could eat the 1st $26M.

Either way the Broncos will be cap accounting for $14M in 2024 for money already paid to Wilson in the past but not yet accounted for. Additionally there is another $32M that has been paid to Wilson in the past that hasn't yet been cap accounted for. That $32M is scheduled to count in future years. If Wilson is cut or traded before the Jun 1 2024 date all of that $32M dead money will accelerate from future years into the 2024 cap. If he's cut not only will they have to account for all of the $46M total dead money they'd also have to account for all of the $39M that he's guaranteed in 2024. If he's traded they will have to account for all of the $46M plus whatever part of the $39M for 2024 that they're eating.

Again, the starting point of interest for teams is $37M for 2 years.

This is 1 of the rare examples of where there is so much cap at stake that a team may not be able to make a purely business decision. The Broncos may be forced to keep Wilson for the next 2 seasons even if they think he's only worth $30M rather than the starting point $37M.

If they trade him the team getting him will force Denver to pay part of his salary.

 

[fastforward]

If they trade him the team getting him will force Denver to pay part of his salary.

Obviously. The post you quoted said that. No team would willingly pay Wilson $76M for the next 2 seasons.

 

[wazzu31]

Seems like it but then the question becomes" is there a trade partner out there?" Which team would consider trading a 2nd or whatever. Atlanta maybe? But will teams wait until the draft and trading for Russ would be plan B? Gonna be interesting to see how all this plays out in the off-season.

I don’t think a trade is possible. Russ has a full no trade clause and why would he or more importantly why would his agent agree to it?

 

[Schmoopy1000]

I don’t think a trade is possible. Russ has a full no trade clause and why would he or more importantly why would his agent agree to it?

depends on what his market value is
he may want to keep this contract

 

[wazzu31]

depends on what his market value is
he may want to keep this contract

Yeah that’s what I’m saying. His camp should just let him get cut then go play for league minimum for some other team. It would be funny if he signed with the Falcons though.

 

[fightinfunbags]

depends on what his market value is
he may want to keep this contract

If I’m reading this correctly, the trading team would be looking at the first two years post trade at $39 million in 24 and $37 million in 25 they would be on the hook for with the future contract. I think that’s reasonable for the QB market. I think the trade option doesn’t suit Denver. Again…my cap management understanding may be off but I think with a cut the Broncos can pay the dead cap of $85 million over two years but a trade option would accelerate the dead cap hit to be all next year and $85 million would be like more than a third of the team cap for a player that isn’t even playing for them. I seem to remember the acceleration of Wentz dead cap when he was traded to Colts but I could have gotten this wrong. @fastforward has posted in the past with some solid cap information. Bro, you seem to have a good understanding of the cap. Can you provide some clarity on the dead cap difference cutting vs trading? Thanks in advance.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

If I’m reading this correctly, the trading team would be looking at the first two years post trade at $39 million in 24 and $37 million in 25 they would be on the hook for with the future contract. I think that’s reasonable for the QB market. I think the trade option doesn’t suit Denver. Again…my cap management understanding may be off but I think with a cut the Broncos can pay the dead cap of $85 million over two years but a trade option would accelerate the dead cap hit to be all next year and $85 million would be like more than a third of the team cap for a player that isn’t even playing for them. I seem to remember the acceleration of Wentz dead cap when he was traded to Colts but I could have gotten this wrong. @fastforward has posted in the past with some solid cap information. Bro, you seem to have a good understanding of the cap. Can you provide some clarity on the dead cap difference cutting vs trading? Thanks in advance.
View attachment 349730

if he is traded the only thing that accelerates is the signing bonus that hasnt been paid yet. Which is three more years at 10 mil per. Which is way cheaper than paying 85 mil in dead money.
So if traded contract as is. Denver owes 30 mil to the cap, if that is all in one year or split between two or however. I am not sure.
The trading team takes the rest.

 

[Mebert]

One of the few contracts where a post June 1st cut is a negative.

 

[fightinfunbags]

if he is traded the only thing that accelerates is the signing bonus that hasnt been paid yet. Which is three more years at 10 mil per. Which is way cheaper than paying 85 mil in dead money.
So if traded contract as is. Denver owes 30 mil to the cap, if that is all in one year or split between two or however. I am not sure.
The trading team takes the rest.

Oh wow. My conclusion that a trade is unlikely was the right conclusion but it was 180 from my reasoning. A team isn’t going to trade for him because of how much cap percentage they’re going to inherit. They can sign him for something much more reasonable on the open market than inheriting the contract extension that hasn’t even kicked in yet.