Having signed Samardzija, what else should we do?

[Mays-Fan]

I repeat...

"I am not a fan of this deal."

But his durability, and his perceived FLOOR make the signing more and more OK by me. If we can have a #3 pitcher who is a work-horse, that is pretty awesome. Even if he only gives us 4.50 ERA baseball. 200 IP will allow the bully to stay fresh and continue to bail the starters out deep into the season.

Keep in mind several upside items about JS, too, in no particular order:

1. He'll be back in the NL, where he has performed better.
2. He will have a true pitcher's park for half his games.
3. He will have a great defense behind him (and in front of him, for that matter!)
4. He will be working with Righetti and Bochy. I suspect they see some untapped potential there.
5. He is getting PAID, big-league style.
6. He will be pitching to the finest catcher of this generation (if not longer).
7. He will have one of the better bullpens behind him.
8. Esp if we land a premium OF, he will have one of the best lineups in the NL to score runs for him. Things will work out well if he is durable and throws strikes.

 

[calsnowskier]

Keep in mind several upside items about JS, too, in no particular order:

1. He'll be back in the NL, where he has performed better.
2. He will have a true pitcher's park for half his games.
3. He will have a great defense behind him (and in front of him, for that matter!)
4. He will be working with Righetti and Bochy. I suspect they see some untapped potential there.
5. He is getting PAID, big-league style.
6. He will be pitching to the finest catcher of this generation (if not longer).
7. He will have one of the better bullpens behind him.

I have heard these argument ad nauseum over the last few days, and outside of point 4 (and point 5 is actually, potentially a negative), I discard all of them. Those arguments could be used for ANY pitcher coming to the Giants, not just Scrabble. Re-signing Zito would also qualify for all these points.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I have heard these argument ad nauseum over the last few days, and outside of point 4 (and point 5 is actually, potentially a negative), I discard all of them. Those arguments could be used for ANY pitcher coming to the Giants, not just Scrabble. Re-signing Zito would also qualify for all these points.

Vell, zen:

 

[SFGRTB]

What can the Giants spend now that they've signed Jeff Samardzija?

What can the Giants spend now that they've signed Jeff Samardzija?

Some possibilities put forth in the article (assumes we have appx $30mm left in the budget):

1. Kenta Maeda and Gerardo Parra
2. Ben Zobrist and Doug Fister
3. Justin Upton and Bartolo Colon
4. Alex Gordon and (younger pitcher acquired in trade)
5. Jason Heyward and Chris Heston

Not limited to these choices. Fire away.

I like the second option, personally. This keeps the Giants in a good position at the deadline to make a move, if they need to. Zobrist is versatile can can plug into many positions, and his hitting should age well, he's an OBP guy, consistent from both sides of the plate. Fister shouldn't break the bank, so it leaves the Giants some financial flexibility for in-season acquisitions as well. Durability is a big concern with Fister though, only 2 full seasons, 200+ IP.

Upton is NOT signing in SF unless they are the highest bidder, which I doubt. He's been on record saying how much he hates hitting at AT&T. Colon is interesting to me though.

I think we'll hear a lot about Maeda, but ultimately he'll go elsewhere.

The Heyward boat never sailed, because it never arrived in SF. I doubt he's landing here. Same for Gordon.

Trade market is always an option too. Drew Smyly is a good fit IMO. Susac for Smyly.

 

[calsnowskier]

I like the second option, personally. This keeps the Giants in a good position at the deadline to make a move, if they need to. Zobrist is versatile can can plug into many positions, and his hitting should age well, he's an OBP guy, consistent from both sides of the plate. Fister shouldn't break the bank, so it leaves the Giants some financial flexibility for in-season acquisitions as well. Durability is a big concern with Fister though, only 2 full seasons, 200+ IP.

Upton is NOT signing in SF unless they are the highest bidder, which I doubt. He's been on record saying how much he hates hitting at AT&T. Colon is interesting to me though.

I think we'll hear a lot about Maeda, but ultimately he'll go elsewhere.

The Heyward boat never sailed, because it never arrived in SF. I doubt he's landing here. Same for Gordon.

Trade market is always an option too. Drew Smyly is a good fit IMO. Susac for Smyly.

That would make a certain attorney frowny

 

[SFGRTB]

That would make a certain attorney frowny

I think it's a great fit. Smyly is a free agent in 2019, but eligible for arbitration next year. Susac is young, ML ready, and has years of cheap control left, exactly what the Rays covet in players. It would probably take a throw in from the Giants side, but a good deal for both sides. Tzill kidnapping Susac notwithstanding.

 

[LHG]

I think it's a great fit. Smyly is a free agent in 2019, but eligible for arbitration next year. Susac is young, ML ready, and has years of cheap control left, exactly what the Rays covet in players. It would probably take a throw in from the Giants side, but a good deal for both sides. Tzill kidnapping Susac notwithstanding.

Maybe tzill could be the throw in.

 

[LHG]

But do we have the pieces in hand right now to follow that model? We have nice pieces coming up, but championship pieces?

You have to win with what you have. 6 years ago we had 3 SUPER prospects/kids who were of that quality. Now we have cash with a supporting system (and a great offensive club in place).

I would say the 2009 version looked it had a lot more holes in its roster than the 2015 version. Consider (with oWAR for fielders, WAR for pitchers):
2009 2015
C - Molina 0.5 Posey 4.7
1B - Ishikawa -0.2 Belt 3.2
2B - Sanchez 1.5 Panik 3.1
3B - Sandoval 5.5 Duffy 3.9
SS - Renteria -0.4 Crawford 3.4
LF - Lewis 0.9 Aoki 1.1
CF - Rowand 1.1 Pagan 0.2
RF - Winn -0.2 Pence 1.0
IF - Uribe 2.6 Blanco 1.7
OF - Schierholtz -0.2 Maxwell -0.5
SP - Lincecum 7.5 Bumgarner 4.8
SP - Cain 6.3 Heston 1.6
SP - Zito 2.6 Vogelsong -0.4
SP - Sanchez 1.7 Hudson 0.3
SP - Johnson 0.3 Peavy 1.5
RP - Affeldt 2.6 Kontos 1.6
RP - Wilson 1.6 Lopez 1.4

The Giants didn't sign any big name free agents after 2009. Wasn't it this board that mocked the Dodgers mercilessly for assembling a collection of high priced players to win a championship? Wasn't it also this board that talked about how so many of the guys that came through the organization were playing better than expected? I think the farm system has earned the trust of developing players for the team.

 

[msgkings322]

Wow was Zito really a 2.6 WAR guy in 2009?

ANd man I miss that rotation....swap out Johnson for Bumgarner and jeez louise

To your point: I can see what you are saying but things change. We just don't have can't miss guys like Posey and Bumgarner to plug in from the minors. It's ok to bring in a guy or two. We are trying to compete with the big boys, we need to use all avenues: domestic draft, international draft, free agency, trades. If a deal makes sense they should do it, not pass because it doesnt fit with what we did in 2010.

 

[msgkings322]

MLB network just said Giants still maybe in on Cueto.

 

[tzill]

I repeat...

"I am not a fan of this deal."

But his durability, and his perceived FLOOR make the signing more and more OK by me. If we can have a #3 pitcher who is a work-horse, that is pretty awesome. Even if he only gives us 4.50 ERA baseball. 200 IP will allow the bully to stay fresh and continue to bail the starters out deep into the season.

I think we can expect about a 110 ERA+ with 2.5-3.0 WAR

 

[tzill]

I like the second option, personally. This keeps the Giants in a good position at the deadline to make a move, if they need to. Zobrist is versatile can can plug into many positions, and his hitting should age well, he's an OBP guy, consistent from both sides of the plate. Fister shouldn't break the bank, so it leaves the Giants some financial flexibility for in-season acquisitions as well. Durability is a big concern with Fister though, only 2 full seasons, 200+ IP.

Upton is NOT signing in SF unless they are the highest bidder, which I doubt. He's been on record saying how much he hates hitting at AT&T. Colon is interesting to me though.

I think we'll hear a lot about Maeda, but ultimately he'll go elsewhere.

The Heyward boat never sailed, because it never arrived in SF. I doubt he's landing here. Same for Gordon.

Trade market is always an option too. Drew Smyly is a good fit IMO. Susac for Smyly.

And then, SFGRTB was never heard from again...

 

[tzill]

Maybe tzill could be the throw in.

my alts are out of control today...

 

[The Q]

I think you could do Heyward and Colon or at the very least Gordon and Colon.

Plus there are some REALLY interesting non-tenders out there that I would take a flier on if I were a GM:

Henderson Alvarez
Mike Minor
AJ Griffin (technically released but right around the time as the non-tenders)

All have some kind of ?, but all have some nice upside.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I think you could do Heyward and Colon or at the very least Gordon and Colon.

Plus there are some REALLY interesting non-tenders out there that I would take a flier on if I were a GM:

Henderson Alvarez
Mike Minor
AJ Griffin (technically released but right around the time as the non-tenders)

All have some kind of ?, but all have some nice upside.

I'm warming to the idea of signing Colon to a 1/8 or even a 1/10 (he made $11mm last year). He's had at least 190 IP in each of the last three years.

It gives our prospects one more year, or even till the ASB, to develop, and we aren't locked into a long-term commitment. Esp if that means we can sign a premium OF as well.

Bum/Sammy/PV/Colon/[Cain-Heston-Timmeh]

 

[LHG]

Wow was Zito really a 2.6 WAR guy in 2009?

ANd man I miss that rotation....swap out Johnson for Bumgarner and jeez louise

To your point: I can see what you are saying but things change. We just don't have can't miss guys like Posey and Bumgarner to plug in from the minors. It's ok to bring in a guy or two. We are trying to compete with the big boys, we need to use all avenues: domestic draft, international draft, free agency, trades. If a deal makes sense they should do it, not pass because it doesnt fit with what we did in 2010.

Its easy to say, in hindsight, that both two were can't miss prospects. They were blue chip guys for sure. But until someone is given the chance to perform, there is no surety that they can live up to expectations, or exceed them. Remember, Tim Alderson was also in that group of high ceiling prospects. Both he and Bumgarner started to slip a bit, around the same time, but Bumgarner worked through it while Alderson slipped into minor league free agent status.

My point is that the team made room for their prospects to get a shot. Both Posey and Bumgarner replaced marginal free agents that were signed in the offseason (Molina was re-signed, Todd Wellemeyer was picked up) to short term deals.

Maybe I just need to come out and say that I don't like win now mode because it seems myopic to me. The team wasn't in win now mode in 2010 and 2012 (certainly not in 2014). They were in how to do we best compete and develop what we have mode. Win now mode is for organizations that haven't won anything in decades, how an aging team and no farm system to speak of. They've whittled away any real chance of building something of significance in their team and feel that they must flail at every free agent available in the hopes that they can somehow mash together a championship caliber team. I am still of the opinion that that does not work. If the Giants sign Colon or Heyward or Gordon or Cueto or a combination of them, make the playoffs and win the World Series, I will happily eat my words. I'm just not convinced this is the way to win.

 

[LHG]

my alts are out of control today...

 

[calsnowskier]

Its easy to say, in hindsight, that both two were can't miss prospects. They were blue chip guys for sure. But until someone is given the chance to perform, there is no surety that they can live up to expectations, or exceed them. Remember, Tim Alderson was also in that group of high ceiling prospects. Both he and Bumgarner started to slip a bit, around the same time, but Bumgarner worked through it while Alderson slipped into minor league free agent status.

My point is that the team made room for their prospects to get a shot. Both Posey and Bumgarner replaced marginal free agents that were signed in the offseason (Molina was re-signed, Todd Wellemeyer was picked up) to short term deals.

Maybe I just need to come out and say that I don't like win now mode because it seems myopic to me. The team wasn't in win now mode in 2010 and 2012 (certainly not in 2014). They were in how to do we best compete and develop what we have mode. Win now mode is for organizations that haven't won anything in decades, how an aging team and no farm system to speak of. They've whittled away any real chance of building something of significance in their team and feel that they must flail at every free agent available in the hopes that they can somehow mash together a championship caliber team. I am still of the opinion that that does not work. If the Giants sign Colon or Heyward or Gordon or Cueto or a combination of them, make the playoffs and win the World Series, I will happily eat my words. I'm just not convinced this is the way to win.

TOTALLY different situations.

In '09/'10, the team was in the final phase of a TOTAL rebuild. They did not have a single locked position player, either.

In '16, the team is in "Teh Window" and has 3 trophies on 6 years. The team has one, maybe two open positions and a top 5 payroll.

Handing the keys to this Maybach to a bunch of 22 year olds is not the same as handing the keys of the Pinto to a bunch of 22 year olds.

 

[LHG]

TOTALLY different situations.

In '09/'10, the team was in the final phase of a TOTAL rebuild. They did not have a single locked position player, either.

In '16, the team is in "Teh Window" and has 3 trophies on 6 years. The team has one, maybe two open positions and a top 5 payroll.

Handing the keys to this Maybach to a bunch of 22 year olds is not the same as handing the keys of the Pinto to a bunch of 22 year olds.

Maybe I'm reading too literally into your analogy but its not like I'm suggesting playing a bunch of rookies. My original intent with showing the 2009 and 2014 teams was to show that there are fewer holes on the 2014 team than the 2009 team. Right now, I'm suggesting giving the 5th starter spot to a 28 year old 2nd year pitcher and the 5th outfield spot to a 27 year old or a 25 year old rookie. And considering the depth of options in the minor leagues for pitching, if one starting pitcher falters (including said 28 year old), then the team can test that depth. After all, when was the last time we could say the Giants will field a starting rotation in triple A like they will in 2016? In my opinion, there is no need to spend exorbitant amounts of money to fill holes that probably are not there. I think the team is built, as is, for contention. If help is needed, a mid season trade can be swung.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Maybe I'm reading too literally into your analogy but its not like I'm suggesting playing a bunch of rookies. My original intent with showing the 2009 and 2014 teams was to show that there are fewer holes on the 2014 team than the 2009 team. Right now, I'm suggesting giving the 5th starter spot to a 28 year old 2nd year pitcher and the 5th outfield spot to a 27 year old or a 25 year old rookie. And considering the depth of options in the minor leagues for pitching, if one starting pitcher falters (including said 28 year old), then the team can test that depth. After all, when was the last time we could say the Giants will field a starting rotation in triple A like they will in 2016? In my opinion, there is no need to spend exorbitant amounts of money to fill holes that probably are not there. I think the team is built, as is, for contention. If help is needed, a mid season trade can be swung.

I see what you are saying, but I agree with cal here. 2010 was a year when all the stars lined up not quite out of nowhere, but everyone but Timmeh seemed to have a career year. In 2016, we have a set of established stars who could use a couple more like them to make us as good as anyone there. We have the money - why gamble on some rookies and lesser players?

None of us has a crystal ball, but we still have enough budget to add 4-6 WAR or more to our squad. If the money is there, why not do that? Sure, we could save the money to do what? Lower the ticket prices? Why start Blanco when you could start Heyward? Why start Heston when you could start Leake?

We may not have glaring holes, but why not have a quality player instead of a barely-not-a-hole?