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Dr. Evil-er
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I have been reading all the verbal combat and disagreement about Suh so I am going to put up this post for you all to chew on and then return to message board retirement.
Why has hell frozen over? Because I agree with the Lions FO on how they handled Suh. It took me a while but I now understand it.
The same manner in which Larry Fitzgerald did for WR's and now Jimmy Graham did for TE's when they set new market pricing for their positions, Suh and his agent believe he is going to be the player that does that for DT's. They are wrong. Atkins couldn't even get his deal close to the huge overpayment the Ravens gave Ngata to make sure they kept him. They clearly just threw that and the contracts of Suh and McCoy right out the window as bullshit deals that aren't representative of the true market for the position. And they were right. Look at the contract averages of the DT's that are out there once you pull out the top 3, its comical. Atkins got his huge deal to be the highest paid DT in the real market for DT's.
Keep an eye on the Bucs with Gerald McCoy. They could actually afford to franchise him for 2015 if they need to so there is absolutely no reason to sign him now. And I doubt his agent has been wanting a new deal right now. They have been waiting and hoping for Suh to use his staggering leverage against the Lions to get a monster deal so they could then capitalize on that as a new market is set for DT's. If the Bucs play smart they can leverage McCoy into a new deal, and at a reasonable price because simply moving him to just above the current deal for Ngata is a big raise from his $11m average and well in excess of Atkins.
With them having the tag option McCoy has to take on injury and performance risk for two full seasons. Advantage Bucs.
If McCoy does end up signing a deal in that range around $12m, and I believe that ultimately he will, the market for Suh is now pretty much set. Both are Pro Bowlers and some even feel McCoy is the best DT in the league.
From a negotiating standpoint cutting off talks just took Suh's leverage away. They have made it through the offseason and are cap compliant. They were not forced into giving in to what I am sure is a ridiculous demand from Suh and his agent they were probably sure would be offered. They bluffed and the Lions called.
I believe what Suh actually wants is a short term contract so he could be a free agent again within two years so that when the cap is higher he will be able to cash in on that. The problem is that his position is not valued in such a manner where anyone other than him will set a new market during that time. Who is there? Haloti Ngata? More like Haloti Notachance. Wolfolk? Be serious. Melton? Nope. Mebane? That's ridiculous. Only McCoy could change things to favor Suh.
The Lions didn't budge and now Suh will most likely test FA and find that the market isn't as lucrative as he might think. On top of that if he thinks someone is going to give him a two year deal so he can once again be a FA that isn't going to happen either.
I will bet that once the Lions told his agent they were done talking about a new contract until after the season that he hung up and had that great feeling we all have when we realize we just fucked up good. The Graham situation set a precedence that position is position so trying to get paid as a DE isn't going to happen. As a FA Suh cant hold out and use leverage like Graham did. That leverage is now gone.
Millenhew and LewanDUI remain idiots, and having $19.5m in dead money on the last year of a contract is nothing short of reprehensible but they did not make it worse for themselves here. Suh is a long way from not being a Lion for the future because we will still almost certainly pay more than he is going to find in the open market but we can wait to find out what that is to make sure we aren't paying a ridiculous premium that hurts the team long term.
Why has hell frozen over? Because I agree with the Lions FO on how they handled Suh. It took me a while but I now understand it.
The same manner in which Larry Fitzgerald did for WR's and now Jimmy Graham did for TE's when they set new market pricing for their positions, Suh and his agent believe he is going to be the player that does that for DT's. They are wrong. Atkins couldn't even get his deal close to the huge overpayment the Ravens gave Ngata to make sure they kept him. They clearly just threw that and the contracts of Suh and McCoy right out the window as bullshit deals that aren't representative of the true market for the position. And they were right. Look at the contract averages of the DT's that are out there once you pull out the top 3, its comical. Atkins got his huge deal to be the highest paid DT in the real market for DT's.
Keep an eye on the Bucs with Gerald McCoy. They could actually afford to franchise him for 2015 if they need to so there is absolutely no reason to sign him now. And I doubt his agent has been wanting a new deal right now. They have been waiting and hoping for Suh to use his staggering leverage against the Lions to get a monster deal so they could then capitalize on that as a new market is set for DT's. If the Bucs play smart they can leverage McCoy into a new deal, and at a reasonable price because simply moving him to just above the current deal for Ngata is a big raise from his $11m average and well in excess of Atkins.
With them having the tag option McCoy has to take on injury and performance risk for two full seasons. Advantage Bucs.
If McCoy does end up signing a deal in that range around $12m, and I believe that ultimately he will, the market for Suh is now pretty much set. Both are Pro Bowlers and some even feel McCoy is the best DT in the league.
From a negotiating standpoint cutting off talks just took Suh's leverage away. They have made it through the offseason and are cap compliant. They were not forced into giving in to what I am sure is a ridiculous demand from Suh and his agent they were probably sure would be offered. They bluffed and the Lions called.
I believe what Suh actually wants is a short term contract so he could be a free agent again within two years so that when the cap is higher he will be able to cash in on that. The problem is that his position is not valued in such a manner where anyone other than him will set a new market during that time. Who is there? Haloti Ngata? More like Haloti Notachance. Wolfolk? Be serious. Melton? Nope. Mebane? That's ridiculous. Only McCoy could change things to favor Suh.
The Lions didn't budge and now Suh will most likely test FA and find that the market isn't as lucrative as he might think. On top of that if he thinks someone is going to give him a two year deal so he can once again be a FA that isn't going to happen either.
I will bet that once the Lions told his agent they were done talking about a new contract until after the season that he hung up and had that great feeling we all have when we realize we just fucked up good. The Graham situation set a precedence that position is position so trying to get paid as a DE isn't going to happen. As a FA Suh cant hold out and use leverage like Graham did. That leverage is now gone.
Millenhew and LewanDUI remain idiots, and having $19.5m in dead money on the last year of a contract is nothing short of reprehensible but they did not make it worse for themselves here. Suh is a long way from not being a Lion for the future because we will still almost certainly pay more than he is going to find in the open market but we can wait to find out what that is to make sure we aren't paying a ridiculous premium that hurts the team long term.
