Gronk or Watkins?

[Marlins Fan]

I don't think it's fair to compare Sammy Watkins to AJ Jenkins or many of the others. You're talking about a guy who could have potentially been taken with the first overall selection and a guy that was reached on with the 31st pick. Both first rounders, but HUGE difference imo.

Fair point but what about the other 10-15 guys he mentioned?

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Lets talk about first round wr's

2013
Tavon austin-not all the wonderful
Deandre Hopkins-Same as austin
Coradelle patterson-came on at the end, but still not enough
Both with promise and decent years

2012
Justin Blackmon-Just LOL
Michael Floyd-more of the same
Kendal Wright-yup same
AJ Jenkins-Whooops

2011
AJ Green-ok pretty good rookie year
Julio Jones-pretty good rookie year
Jonathan Baldwin-whoops
Demarius Thomas-nothing rookie year
Dez-mehh
DHB-HAHAH
Crabtree-meh
maclin-meh
Percy-meh
nicks-meh
britt-meh

Only green and julio have had really relevant years since 2009

Overall, first round WR's are a total crapshoot. But an elite WR prospect doesn't come out every year. Let me see what top 5 draft pick WR's look like in the last decade.

2004: #3 Larry Fitzgerald
2005: # 3 Braylon Edwards
2007: #2 Calvin Johnson
2011: #4 A.J. Green (Julio Jones was 6th)
2012: #5 Justin Blackmon
2014 #4 Sammy Watkins

 

[MilkSpiller22]

here is the questions that people are bypassing...

How many of these WRs came in right away as the number one??

how many of these WRs who came in right away as the number one had a QB???

Watkins is coming in as the number one, and he has the franchise future(hopeful) QB... Anyone who thinks that Manuel should be good then has to think Watkins will be good...

 

[TREFF]

here is the questions that people are bypassing...

How many of these WRs came in right away as the number one??

how many of these WRs who came in right away as the number one had a QB???

Watkins is coming in as the number one, and he has the franchise future(hopeful) QB... Anyone who thinks that Manuel should be good then has to think Watkins will be good...

Were bypassing those questions because no one other than a few fan boys are assuming he's coming in as the #1. Your bypassing the fact that Robert Woods is already entrenched andthat Mike Williams is around. . Both unexciting yet steady WR's that a young QB can depend on to be where he needs them to be.

People made the same exact mistake with Austin last year

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Were bypassing those questions because no one other than a few fan boys are assuming he's coming in as the #1. Your bypassing the fact that Robert Woods is already entrenched andthat Mike Williams is around. . Both unexciting yet steady WR's that a young QB can depend on to be where he needs them to be.

People made the same exact mistake with Austin last year

and who knows how austin's season would have gone with a healthy bradford...

Taking history trends that have totally different situations is not a good reason to be so down on these players...

 

[TREFF]

and who knows how austin's season would have gone with a healthy bradford...

Taking history trends that have totally different situations is not a good reason to be so down on these players...

Down? I'm not down. .. I'm just not licking his taint. There's a difference between having realistic expectations and being "down"

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Down? I'm not down. .. I'm just not licking his taint. There's a difference between having realistic expectations and being "down"

I wrote this in the wrong thread since the comparison is watkins and Gronk, clearly you go gronk....


But how is 6th or 7th round projection for Watkins licking his taint??

Havent heard anyone say they would take him as a top 20 WR!!!

 

[TREFF]

I wrote this in the wrong thread since the comparison is watkins and Gronk, clearly you go gronk....


But how is 6th or 7th round projection for Watkins licking his taint??

Havent heard anyone say they would take him as a top 20 WR!!!

Becuase he isn't one? ? That would be licking his taint.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Robert Woods would have been a first rounder if not for his college injury. In 2011, he hurt his ankle, but played through it the whole season. He had 111 catches, for 1300 yards and 15 TD. He had surgery on the ankle in the off season and didn't have a great recovery/2012 season. He came in last year and he and Manuel just clicked. Watkins was drafted to be our wideout playmaker, and may very well finish the season with the best numbers of the Bills' WR, but I can almost guarantee that Woods has the highest floor and most consistency each week. So when you say unquestioned #1, it's just not accurate.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Watkins is being drafted higher than Woods in seasonal formats. Therefore, Watkins is expected to be the #1 WR this year.

Nothing in the NFL is guaranteed, but when a team spends a top 5 pick on a player, they are obviously expecting major contributions from that player.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Watkins is being drafted higher than Woods in seasonal formats. Therefore, Watkins is expected to be the #1 WR this year.

Nothing in the NFL is guaranteed, but when a team spends a top 5 pick on a player, they are obviously expecting major contributions from that player.

People have been burned so much on the Rookies, that people fear drafting rookies... Watkins and Benjamin have the opportunity to be Fantasy relevant... Its funny, becauase we hear how opportunity and talent are the 2 most important things in drafting players, but anytime the word rookie is thrown in, we bunch them in with all the other rookies...

 

[TREFF]

Watkins is being drafted higher than Woods in seasonal formats. Therefore, Watkins is expected to be the #1 WR this year.

Nothing in the NFL is guaranteed, but when a team spends a top 5 pick on a player, they are obviously expecting major contributions from that player.

They can expect major contributions from him as any one of the three WR's. And are you saying that teams like Seattle, Denver, SF,,, aren't expecting major contributions from their first round picks? Or can we agree that EVERYONE expects major contributions from EVERY first round pick, and that we are the ones who put unrealistic expectations on this top 5 or top10. Kind of a given that a team wants their 1st rounder to perform and be a major part of the team.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

and who knows how austin's season would have gone with a healthy bradford...

Taking history trends that have totally different situations is not a good reason to be so down on these players...

ooo, ooo, pick me, pick me, pick me!!!! (hand is raised)
I know the answer to this question: basically the exact same.

Austin was limited early in the season due to not knowing the playbook, then got a little banged up towards the end of the year. Not sure Bradford could have helped with either of those things, unless he does late night tutoring sessions where he quizzes WRs on the playbook and their assignments.

Remember when people would salivate over 3rd year WRs expected to break out? That's cause it is SUPER hard to learn an NFL playbook and hot reads and blocking assignments (yes, WRs that don't know their blocking assignments on running plays often ride the pine until they learn) and expanding route trees and catching up to the speed of the game and I'm sure I'm missing a few others here, but you get my point.

That's why people are saying to not OVER buy into the hype. No one is questioning Watkins talent/ability. Just warning folks to not expect WR1 numbers in fantasy, even if he gets listed as a WR1 on the depth chart. Rookies, even high picks, get benched if they aren't up to speed. I would not be surprised at all if Robert Woods is the best fantasy WR on the Bills this season.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

They can expect major contributions from him as any one of the three WR's. And are you saying that teams like Seattle, Denver, SF,,, aren't expecting major contributions from their first round picks? Or can we agree that EVERYONE expects major contributions from EVERY first round pick, and that we are the ones who put unrealistic expectations on this top 5 or top10. Kind of a given that a team wants their 1st rounder to perform and be a major part of the team.

Maybe I should have re-written that sentence.

"Nothing in the NFL is guaranteed, but when a team spends a top 5 pick on a player, they are obviously expecting major production from that player."

And I think it's fair to have a different set of expectations on the production of a top 5 pick than on a late 1st round pick.

 

[TREFF]

I really don't. . Top 5 generally means you're going to a cap team. .so their somewhat handicapped going in. And where does that line stop? Why is it 5? if Buffalo drafted 6th, do they expect anything less from their #1? How about 10th? Or 15th?

 

[Xponentialchaos]

I really don't. . Top 5 generally means you're going to a cap team. .so their somewhat handicapped going in. And where does that line stop? Why is it 5? if Buffalo drafted 6th, do they expect anything less from their #1? How about 10th? Or 15th?

Forgive me, but I don't see what point you're trying to make here.

Buffalo actually drafted 4th. I think you're comparing Buffalo's 6th pick to the #1 overall pick (not their #1 pick?)

If the GM wants to go from the #6 pick to the #5 pick, then they would have to give something extra in value. Why? Because the #5 pick is expected to have better production. If the GM of the #10 pick wants to go up to #5, then they would have to give even more value to compensate for the difference in pick numbers. Why? Because the production of the #5 pick is expected to be more than the #10 pick.

The line doesn't stop at 5. The #37 pick is expected to be more productive than the #45 pick and so on. I just arbitrarily picked the top 5 to narrow down the elite of the elite. In my opinion, the difference in talent between the #31 overall pick and the #4 pick is HUGE. And for all practical purposes, it's not fair to compare their probability of busting based on previous trends, hence setting an arbitrary boundary at 5. I wouldn't have put up a fight if that had changed as long as it separates the guys that are undisputed at the top of their class vs. guys that aren't.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Forgive me, but I don't see what point you're trying to make here.

Buffalo actually drafted 4th. I think you're comparing Buffalo's 6th pick to the #1 overall pick (not their #1 pick?)

If the GM wants to go from the #6 pick to the #5 pick, then they would have to give something extra in value. Why? Because the #5 pick is expected to have better production. If the GM of the #10 pick wants to go up to #5, then they would have to give even more value to compensate for the difference in pick numbers. Why? Because the production of the #5 pick is expected to be more than the #10 pick.

The line doesn't stop at 5. The #37 pick is expected to be more productive than the #45 pick and so on. I just arbitrarily picked the top 5 to narrow down the elite of the elite. In my opinion, the difference in talent between the #31 overall pick and the #4 pick is HUGE. And for all practical purposes, it's not fair to compare their probability of busting based on previous trends, hence setting an arbitrary boundary at 5. I wouldn't have put up a fight if that had changed as long as it separates the guys that are undisputed at the top of their class vs. guys that aren't.

I think you're comparing Buffalo's #6 overall pick to the #1 overall pick (not their #1 pick?)

Fixed

 

[SteelersPride]

I don't think it's fair to compare Sammy Watkins to AJ Jenkins or many of the others. You're talking about a guy who could have potentially been taken with the first overall selection and a guy that was reached on with the 31st pick. Both first rounders, but HUGE difference imo.

ok still many more there besides the two you cherry picked, with relative talents and draft positions, and they all COULD have been #1, they werent....

 

[SteelersPride]

just do the trade foot

 

[Xponentialchaos]

ok still many more there besides the two you cherry picked, with relative talents and draft positions, and they all COULD have been #1, they werent....

I'm not cherry-picking. I just used Jenkins as an example. How many of those guys would you consider to have the same level of talent that Watkins does? Because I don't think many do.

I could have made a similar argument against most of the guys on that list, especially the busts, but I wanted to illustrate the difference with one specific example that I'm most familiar with as a 49er fan.

The fact is that as you narrow your search to just the top picks, which Watkins is, then the bust rate becomes much less. That should be obvious.