Got any bold second half predictions?

[SeattleCoug]

I don't fret the run differential as much because every year there seems to be one team that has a lower run differential that gets in. Last year it was the Twins, the year before it was the Rangers who won 95 games with a run differential of like +10 or something.

Just for reference there seems to be that playoff team in the AL every year since the second wildcard in 2012

2017 Twins 84 wins +27
2016 Rangers 95 Wins +8
2016 Orioles 89 wins +29
2015 Rangers 88 wins +18
2014 Royals 89 wins +27
2013 Rays 92 wins +54
2012 Orioles 93 wins +7

 

[navamind]

It's not that the Mariners can't make the postseason with a pedestrian run differential, it's that they likely won't sustain their current pace. 10 games over their pythag W-L is a lot, especially in the middle of the season.

Mariners are still in a good spot and [probably] don't have to do too much to make it to the playoffs. Fangraphs only projects them to go 35-34 over the course of the season, but that still gets them to 93 wins.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It's not that the Mariners can't make the postseason with a pedestrian run differential, it's that they likely won't sustain their current pace. 10 games over their pythag W-L is a lot, especially in the middle of the season.

This.

 

[navamind]

Of course, a lot of those teams fell off pretty signifcantly the following year save for the Royals.

 

[SeattleCoug]

It's not that the Mariners can't make the postseason with a pedestrian run differential.

I'm not saying that run differential isn't a valid stat.

I guess I'm just saying its not "the stat" if that makes sense.

It just depends at how you look at it. They have been carried by the starting pitching mostly which isn't really how the team was built. So that part probably isn't sustainable. However the offense hasn't been the strength many thought it would be. They do get Cano back in about a month which maybe helps offset the drop in pitching.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

2017 Twins 84 wins +27
2016 Rangers 95 Wins +8
2016 Orioles 89 wins +29
2015 Rangers 88 wins +18
2014 Royals 89 wins +27
2013 Rays 92 wins +54
2012 Orioles 93 wins +7

2017 Twins 84 wins +27 - Lost WC Game
2016 Rangers 95 Wins +8 - Swept in LDS
2016 Orioles 89 wins +29 - Lost WC Game
2015 Rangers 88 wins +18 - Lost LDS 2-3
2014 Royals 89 wins +27 - Lost WS
2013 Rays 92 wins +54 - Losd LDS 1-3
2012 Orioles 93 wins + - Lost LDS 2-3

Only one of those teams got out of the first round of the playoffs.

At this point, I see four distinctive tiers in the AL.

Great Teams
HOU, BOS, NYY

Good Teams
CLE

Mediocre Teams
TBR, SEA, OAK, LAA

Shitty Teams Ranging From "Pretty" to "Absolutly"
All teams not named above

 

[navamind]

That's fair. The 2012 Orioles were -36 in the 1st half, but they were +43 in the 2nd half. They went 45-40 and 48-29 in those halves respectively.

I do agree the Mariners offense should be better, especially getting Cano back and Seager also projects to hit considerably better for the rest of the season (111 wRC+ per Steamer, 118 wRC+ per ZiPS).

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I'm not saying that run differential isn't a valid stat.

I guess I'm just saying its not "the stat" if that makes sense.

It just depends at how you look at it. They have been carried by the starting pitching mostly which isn't really how the team was built. So that part probably isn't sustainable. However the offense hasn't been the strength many thought it would be. They do get Cano back in about a month which maybe helps offset the drop in pitching.

Run diff, isn't "the stat," and strange things can and do happen in baseball, but generally speaking, I think Run diff is the best readily available way of measuring one team against another.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Twins won the '87 WS with a negative run diff.

 

[SeattleCoug]

2017 Twins 84 wins +27 - Lost WC Game
2016 Rangers 95 Wins +8 - Swept in LDS
2016 Orioles 89 wins +29 - Lost WC Game
2015 Rangers 88 wins +18 - Lost LDS 2-3
2014 Royals 89 wins +27 - Lost WS
2013 Rays 92 wins +54 - Losd LDS 1-3
2012 Orioles 93 wins + - Lost LDS 2-3

Only one of those teams got out of the first round of the playoffs.

At this point, I see four distinctive tiers in the AL.

Great Teams
HOU, BOS, NYY

Good Teams
CLE

Mediocre Teams
TBR, SEA, OAK, LAA

Shitty Teams Ranging From "Pretty" to "Absolutly"
All teams not named above

Yea I would be beyond stunned if the Mariners made it past the division series. In no way do I think they are in the same class as Houston, Boston or NYY even tho they looked ok against Boston

 

[SeattleCoug]

Seager also projects to hit considerably better for the rest of the season (111 wRC+ per Steamer, 118 wRC+ per ZiPS).

Man I hope. Guy hasn't been the same since August 2016 sans a couple of hot streaks here and there

 

[molsaniceman]

TB sneaks in as a WC

 

[rmilia1]

Cubs vs Astros WS

Bold yo

 

[Pure Steel]

This.

This

 

[mcnabb7542]

Not if the A's play 7 games over .500 the rest of the way.

Clearly I was wrong and you are 100% correct my apologizes!

I was thinking this organization had turned a corner "finally" shit I was wrong!

 

[Chewbaccer]

Clearly I was wrong and you are 100% correct my apologizes!

I was thinking this organization had turned a corner "finally" shit I was wrong!

Ain't nothing but a thing. Braves are a lot closer to the worst team in the NL than they are to being the best team in the NL. Nice start to the season, but we'll finish in third place and under .500.

 

[JohnU]

I think the trade deadline has a lot of scribes whacking off to their own predictions but aside from a couple of billboard players, nobody is going to do anything important.

2018 is a lost year for 75 percent of the teams. The agents are hunkering down for the winter fiesta.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I know math isn't your best friend,

But the M's play .500 the rest of the way the have the wild card....

 

[bksballer89]

Oakland get 2nd WC

 

[SeattleCoug]

Yea M's offense cant score. Supposed to be the strength and its just killing them in July