Gil Brandt Predicts Chiefs to Win AFCWest

[Broncos6482]

To me in that game especially without Poe I would just run it down the middle and over the left side of the line (averaged almost 2 more yards per carry on the left side compared to the right in the first preseason game). That is the quickest way to take the crowd out of the game is just have one of those 10 minute run it down their throats type drives.

Run, run, run, run, have Manning pick up third downs. That's exactly what Denver did to the Chiefs last season in Arrowhead, and that should be the MO again this season. Coincidentally, that's also pretty much the formula Denver used in 97 and 98...

 

[cdumler7]

Good news for the Chiefs and Fisher, just a sprain:
Eric Fisher out a couple of weeks with ankle sprain | ProFootballTalk

Good to hear...Fisher's career up to now has been one injury after another that he has played through. I'm guessing this means it was just a low ankle sprain though as a high ankle sprain would have been a little longer recovery and more than likely bother him the entire season.

 

[Broncos6482]

I'm reading through the comments on fansided, that dude Ben Almquist is hilarious! Talk about a major homer. I love how he's ragging on the Broncos lack of depth at wr after Sanders and Thomas, when those two are both better than any receivers the Chiefs have!

 

[cdumler7]

Run, run, run, run, have Manning pick up third downs. That's exactly what Denver did to the Chiefs last season in Arrowhead, and that should be the MO again this season. Coincidentally, that's also pretty much the formula Denver used in 97 and 98...

Well can't argue with success! I'm hoping we see that game plan in quite a few games this year. This plays into that conversation above with the Packers fan in the Broncos are wanting to run to take some pressure off Manning. I actually am impressed with how Kubiak is handling this whole Manning situation. The resting him every few days of practice from what I have been told has really helped Manning to look sharp when he returns from his day off. That will pay dividends later in the season. Also keeping him out of that first preseason game is something Fox would never have done in my opinion but it was a smart move with a brand new OL going into one of the most hostile environments in the country. The Broncos are trying to make sure their best football is in December/January.

 

[cdumler7]

I'm reading through the comments on fansided, that dude Ben Almquist is hilarious! Talk about a major homer. I love how he's ragging on the Broncos lack of depth at wr after Sanders and Thomas, when those two are both better than any receivers the Chiefs have!

Which article were you reading that he was talking about that? Would love to go read his comments and I actually have an account to write him back so would be fun to comment

 

[TDs3nOut]

One thing to keep in mind, esp early in the season is the Eric Berry factor - I am one to never underestimate the power of inspiration and emotion on the field ..

This will be a tough game - KC home opener with Berry on the field ... There's going to be a lot of emotion in that stadium that night

Getting Berry back definitely figures to be a boost to KC's defense.

I'm also interested to see how much Derrick Johnson's return means for their team. He missed all of last season, but he had become a very good player the past several years before that. He is getting up there in age, so it'll be interesting to see how he comes back.

 

[Broncos6482]

Which article were you reading that he was talking about that? Would love to go read his comments and I actually have an account to write him back so would be fun to comment

This one.

 

[cdumler7]

This one.

Thanks went and wrote my peace. Feel much better now. I still can't believe a Chief's writer of all people would comment about the Broncos depth at WR with their team having been what now 20 games without a TD from a WR?

 

[RP-29]

Have you actually looked at what Peyton has done in the final 4 games of the season or just going by what the media keeps telling you? So let's see 2012 Peyton throws 8 touchdowns over the final 4 games to only 2 interceptions with a QB rating over 100 during that stretch. In 2013 Peyton throws 14 touchdowns to only 1 interception and easily over a 100 QB rating. So really what you mean is when Peyton had a partially torn quad in 2014 he regressed from what he was playing at earlier in the year.

Quarterback Rating in parentheses.

2012 (105.8)

• W: 3-10 @Raiders (95.8)
• W: 9-5 @Ravens (94.9)
• W: 5-10 Browns (106.6)
• W: 2-14 Chiefs (144.8)
• L: Playoffs: Ravens: (88.3)

2013 (115.1)

• W: 5-8 Titans (107.8)
• W: 7-7 Chargers (92.4)
• W: 2-13 @Texans (113.2)
• W: 4-12 @Raiders (145.8)
• W: Playoffs: Chargers (93.5)
• W: Playoffs: Patriots (118.4)
• L: Playoffs: Seahawks (73.5)

2014 (101.5)

• W: 7-6 Bills (56.9)
• W: @8-6 Chargers (125.6)
• L: @10-4-1 Bengals (61.8)
• W: 3-13 Raiders (80.1)
• L: Playoffs: Colts (75.5)

Look at Manning's complete season quarterback rating, then compare that to the individual last four games of the season and playoffs. His quarterback rating is below his season average in 12 of 17 of those season-ending games (including playoffs). Only 2 of those 5 games out of 17 he did post a rating above his season average were against a team with a winning record.

These are stats that support the eyeball test. It doesn't look like an anomaly to me, it looks like a trend.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Have to remember for the Chiefs that Smith their best Corner last year (finished top-10 according to PFF) is suspended the first 3 weeks and Poe with his injury is out for quite some time. So 2 of their best 3 defensive players are out for at least the first 3 weeks of the season with one of those games being against the Broncos.

Yep, 2nd in DIV is my prediction...I think the kid (Marcus Peters) will do okay in Smith's spot but he's a rookie...Poe will be missed for certain.

I think KC is a 10 win team if all goes well.

 

[RP-29]

I could say the same for the Packers, especially considering their recent history on defense. They better be ready for a fight when they meet the Broncos.

I agree to some extent. The Packers' defense and special teams need to be better to make it to the Superbowl. However, barring major injuries, the Packers offense is going to be a buzzsaw reminiscent of the Broncos' Superbowl run a couple years ago.

Denver better be on their A-game come November 1st - could be the regular season game of the year. Both teams will be coming off their bye too.

 

[cdumler7]

Quarterback Rating in parentheses.

2012 (105.8)

• W: 3-10 @Raiders (95.8)
• W: 9-5 @Ravens (94.9)
• W: 5-10 Browns (106.6)
• W: 2-14 Chiefs (144.8)
• L: Playoffs: Ravens: (88.3)

2013 (115.1)

• W: 5-8 Titans (107.8)
• W: 7-7 Chargers (92.4)
• W: 2-13 @Texans (113.2)
• W: 4-12 @Raiders (145.8)
• W: Playoffs: Chargers (93.5)
• W: Playoffs: Patriots (118.4)
• L: Playoffs: Seahawks (73.5)

2014 (101.5)

• W: 7-6 Bills (56.9)
• W: @8-6 Chargers (125.6)
• L: @10-4-1 Bengals (61.8)
• W: 3-13 Raiders (80.1)
• L: Playoffs: Colts (75.5)

Look at Manning's complete season quarterback rating, then compare that to the individual last four games of the season and playoffs. His quarterback rating is below his season average in 12 of 17 of those season-ending games (including playoffs). Only 2 of those 5 games out of 17 he did post a rating above his season average were against a team with a winning record.

These are stats that support the eyeball test. It doesn't look like an anomaly to me, it looks like a trend.

2012--Overall QB Rating was 105.8--Over the final 4 games and the playoff game Manning completed 124 of 179 passes for 1447 yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions during that 5 game stretch. That gives us a grand total for QB Rating of 104.7. So you are right he trended down by the 1 point.

In 2013--Overall QB Rating was 115.1--Over the final 4 games and the playoff games Manning completed 214 passes of 307 attempted, had 2262 yards in that stretch and threw 19 touchdowns to 4 interceptions for a QB Rating of 106. So again you are right he trended down hill. You take out the Super Bowl game and he has a QB Rating of 112.3. So yes you are right again he does trend down hill but not to the point that people have made it out to be that his arm has gotten tired in some way. He is still putting up elite numbers but when you are comparing those against other elite numbers during better weather months then yes his numbers are going to go down a bit.

I mean let's just look at Aaron Rodgers over the final 4 games plus the 2 playoff games from this past year. He had a QB Rating of 112.3 for the year. Over those final 4 games plus the two playoff games he had an average QB Rating of 93.6. Does that mean that Rodgers is falling off at the end of the year then and his arm just can't hold up for an entire season?

 

[Broncosr0k]

2012 (105.8)

• W: 3-10 @Raiders (95.8)
• W: 9-5 @Ravens (94.9)
• W: 5-10 Browns (106.6)
• W: 2-14 Chiefs (144.8)
• L: Playoffs: Ravens: (88.3)

The average of those 5 games is right on par with the season average.

2013 (115.1)

• W: 5-8 Titans (107.8)
• W: 7-7 Chargers (92.4)
• W: 2-13 @Texans (113.2)
• W: 4-12 @Raiders (145.8)
• W: Playoffs: Chargers (93.5)
• W: Playoffs: Patriots (118.4)
• L: Playoffs: Seahawks (73.5)

This one did taper off a little. He was also having a bonkers season until completely shitting the bed against the seahawks. To be fair, everyone on the broncos shit the bed in the SB.

2014 (101.5)

• W: 7-6 Bills (56.9)
• W: @8-6 Chargers (125.6)
• L: @10-4-1 Bengals (61.8)
• W: 3-13 Raiders (80.1)
• L: Playoffs: Colts (75.5)

And again, how much of this is the quad tear?

I expect Manning to be dropping a little but the people using the "old, tired Manning" argument make it sound like he is falling off a cliff. They are also ignoring the things the broncos are doing differently this year.

 

[cdumler7]

Yep, 2nd in DIV is my prediction...I think the kid (Marcus Peters) will do okay in Smith's spot but he's a rookie...Poe will be missed for certain.

I think KC is a 10 win team if all goes well.

I've heard good things about Peters in practice. There is a difference though of going up against the Chiefs receivers with Smith throwing them the ball compared to the Broncos receivers with Manning throwing the ball. I think Manning will have a few tricks up his sleeve to really test that rookie early. I'm guessing there will be some double moves off the playaction to see if the kid will bite.

 

[Broncosr0k]

Denver better be on their A-game come November 1st - could be the regular season game of the year. Both teams will be coming off their bye too.

I am pretty excited for this game. I am hoping for a clash of titans type game.

 

[RP-29]

@cdumler7, @Broncosr0k,

You both retorted that 2012 and 2013 were cumulatively just barely below average, but each year Manning got to feast on a team battling for the #1 pick in the draft to finish the season - which raised his cumulative rating significantly.

Truth be told, we're all massaging the numbers to support our perceptions - it's what master debaters do. There is no definitive number set or opinion authority to prove or disprove Manning's decline. Let's just digest the numbers, sit back and enjoy what figures to be one heck of a football season.

Good luck to the Broncos and you fans. I'd love to see a Manning v Rodgers Superbowl matchup before Manning hangs up his cleats.

Oh, and by the way, Rodgers was throwing game winning touchdown passes on one leg last year too. MVP.

 

[Broncos6482]

@cdumler7, @Broncosr0k,

You both retorted that 2012 and 2013 were cumulatively just barely below average, but each year Manning got to feast on a team battling for the #1 pick in the draft to finish the season - which raised his cumulative rating significantly.

Truth be told, we're all massaging the numbers to support our perceptions - it's what master debaters do. There is no definitive number set or opinion authority to prove or disprove Manning's decline. Let's just digest the numbers, sit back and enjoy what figures to be one heck of a football season.

Good luck to the Broncos and you fans. I'd love to see a Manning v Rodgers Superbowl matchup before Manning hangs up his cleats.

Oh, and by the way, Rodgers was throwing game winning touchdown passes on one leg last year too. MVP.

No, you're massaging the numbers to support your perceptions. Manning was basically the same qb the last quarter of 2012 and 2013 as he was rest of the season, with just a slight variance that can be attributed to statistical anomaly. In 2014 he obviously didn't finish the season well, but we know he was suffering from a quad injury which could explain that.

What you're doing is taking the finish of 2014, seeing a downturn in his play, then looking for numbers in 2012 and 2013 that support your belief that he must taper off at the end of the season. In other words, you're letting your preconceived belief lead your research, rather than research leading to a conclusion.

 

[cdumler7]

@cdumler7, @Broncosr0k,

You both retorted that 2012 and 2013 were cumulatively just barely below average, but each year Manning got to feast on a team battling for the #1 pick in the draft to finish the season - which raised his cumulative rating significantly.

Truth be told, we're all massaging the numbers to support our perceptions - it's what master debaters do. There is no definitive number set or opinion authority to prove or disprove Manning's decline. Let's just digest the numbers, sit back and enjoy what figures to be one heck of a football season.

Good luck to the Broncos and you fans. I'd love to see a Manning v Rodgers Superbowl matchup before Manning hangs up his cleats.

Oh, and by the way, Rodgers was throwing game winning touchdown passes on one leg last year too. MVP.

It is true you can make numbers say what you want. I just think the whole his game falls off a cliff to close out seasons thing is overblown by the media. Does he have some drop off sure I have no problem admitting that. There could be a thousand reasons why that happens. I mean he does play in Denver so cold weather becomes a major concern at the end of the year. All QB's play worse in bad weather. Some of those games that he played bad in were bad weather games such as 2012 the playoff game was one of the coldest days in Denver in a long time. There was also huge winds that day so again any QB is going to have some drop off in that type of game.

Anyway at this point all we can do is sit back and watch what happens. I will say though as I said above this regime has done a lot more to preserve Manning than what we had the last few years. Manning is getting days off and will get days off during the season as well to rest up. Even during practice though Manning is getting less reps at passing. They said that in past training camps the play calls were something like 70% passing to 30% rushing. Now it is about 50-50 in practice. So again limiting his reps to help save his arm.

I would also point to there is probably no other HC in the league more qualified to know how to handle a HOF QB at the end of their career. Kubiak worked with Steve Young during his last MVP/Super Bowl run before he retired and of course with Elway in the final few years of his career. He knows what these guys need to be playing their best at the end.

 

[cdumler7]

No, you're massaging the numbers to support your perceptions. Manning was basically the same qb the last quarter of 2012 and 2013 as he was rest of the season, with just a slight variance that can be attributed to statistical anomaly. In 2014 he obviously didn't finish the season well, but we know he was suffering from a quad injury which could explain that.

What you're doing is taking the finish of 2014, seeing a downturn in his play, then looking for numbers in 2012 and 2013 that support your belief that he must taper off at the end of the season. In other words, you're letting your preconceived belief lead your research, rather than research leading to a conclusion.

Just to add to this RP pointed towards the level of competition helping to up the numbers but didn't Manning play against some bad teams early on in the season as well in these seasons? I mean his best run in 2013 was against Oakland, NY Giants, Baltimore, and Philly. Philly was the only team to make the playoffs that year. To me if we take a 4-game stretch and if you want to include the playoffs in the numbers then so be it but for the most part in each 4 game stretch Manning has some great games and some mediocre games. AGain just look at the 2013 season where for a 3 game stretch in October he had a QB Rating under 100 for all 3 games. Does that mean he trailed off and his arm was losing ability? I think it just means just like all QB's they have some bad games along the way.

 

[RP-29]

It is true you can make numbers say what you want. I just think the whole his game falls off a cliff to close out seasons thing is overblown by the media. Does he have some drop off sure I have no problem admitting that. There could be a thousand reasons why that happens. I mean he does play in Denver so cold weather becomes a major concern at the end of the year. All QB's play worse in bad weather. Some of those games that he played bad in were bad weather games such as 2012 the playoff game was one of the coldest days in Denver in a long time. There was also huge winds that day so again any QB is going to have some drop off in that type of game.

Anyway at this point all we can do is sit back and watch what happens. I will say though as I said above this regime has done a lot more to preserve Manning than what we had the last few years. Manning is getting days off and will get days off during the season as well to rest up. Even during practice though Manning is getting less reps at passing. They said that in past training camps the play calls were something like 70% passing to 30% rushing. Now it is about 50-50 in practice. So again limiting his reps to help save his arm.

I would also point to there is probably no other HC in the league more qualified to know how to handle a HOF QB at the end of their career. Kubiak worked with Steve Young during his last MVP/Super Bowl run before he retired and of course with Elway in the final few years of his career. He knows what these guys need to be playing their best at the end.

Intelligent, insightful and articulate response.