Future of the program

[WizardHawk]

We still have 3 games left in this season, but there has already been talk of how hot Sark's seat is/should be and questions of where we are now, more or less what is coming next year and beyond.

Unless UW loses the apple cup I don't see any real discussions about getting a new HC and even if they did lose out the rest of the season I don't see the AD replacing him right now.

The problem is you normally give a HC 5 years as long as things are going in the right direction with recruiting to allow them to produce results with their own kids and in Sark's case his first class or two were on the heels of an 0-12 destruction of their brand and were not quality classes because of it. His first class came very late in the season and half of it was JC transfers because of it. And we all know there wasn't a single lineman in the class. His second class was obviously a big step up over that first one and was better than classes under Willingham, but he was still working on restoring the brand at that time.

Let's look at his recruiting classes. I will use Rivals ranks here, but it is a similar story on all of them.
2009 68th - terrible class because of how late the new staff was in place to create one.
2010 28th - Parker, Kohler, Smith, Cooper, Potoae all 4 star recruits.
2011 23rd - Sample, ASJ, Sankey, Shelton, KW all notable 4 stars in the class.
2012 21st - Beaver, Lindquist, Mickens, Miles, Vatuvei all 4 stars and 5 star standout Shaq Thompson.
2013 18th - Constantine, Daniels, Kelly, Mathis, Qualls, Stringfellow, Troy Williams all 4 stars.

Every class under Sark has been ranked higher than the last. I know WE all want results and will grade him based on those, but recruiting builds programs and the AD will be grading him as much on that as results. At some point you have prove you can lead those kids you have been attracting and the question is when will Sark be at a point where he can be graded more on those results?

If UW wins out (incl bowl) I don't think there will be much fan heat on him and most of this discussion will be moot, but anything less than that and some chatter will be there. To me the apple cup is the most important one. The cougs will likely NEED that game to be bowl eligible and should they lose that game at home I can see pitchforks going up and rightly so. But because of the progress in recruiting and what they are building there as well as what already appears to be some great pickups on future classes I don't see them replacing him. It just isn't going to happen regardless of what you think should happen.

So what about next year then? Well part of the beauty of having a younger team is they won't have a huge turnover of starters. In theory it should give you more progression as long as the kids who are staying another year are quality. We know that each class has been better than the last and so some of the starters have been younger kids in more recent classes who were better than his first recruits at those positions. The process then for building a mature program like Stanford and Oregon takes far more than 5 years. As for next season let's look at what we will be returning:
O Line - 4 of the starters are Jr's and one is a So. They were a better unit this year than last, but we all know the overall line play on both sides has not been up to UW standards. We don't know if these kids will keep on progressing, but there are some kids in later classes they can draw from. They will have a lot of depth and options here.
WR's - With KW out to injury combined with a fairly quiet year up until his injury I would guess he is almost certain to return. With him back next year the entire WR corp may be the strongest the school has had maybe ever. Mickens, Ross, Stringfellow all return and there are a couple of other kids coming off red shirts that will add to this unit.
RB - Sankey is almost surely going to leave. I think we would all say with as short as pro careers are for backs in the NFL he would be dumb not to take that jump. He may not end up being a first rounder, but he will be picked up and have a chance to make it. Cooper and Callier are both Jrs and oustanding RS Fr Washington will most certainly be seeing more game time. At 6'1" and 220lbs he gives you that punishing back on short yardage situations you need in this conference. Wooching will add another option next year in both blocking and rushing.
TE - I don't think anyone knows for sure what ASJ is going to do, but there is at least a good chance he leaves. He has had a quiet season so far, but he is an above average blocking TE that is on the radar of the pro scouts and would be picked up if he leaves. Let's assume he is gone. You still have Hartvigson and Perkins as well as a couple of frosh behind them. Perkins has already shown as a So that he has good hands and Hart has been a solid blocker over his career.


QB - It was great to get to see some real game time from Miles and I think we all came away from that with optimism for his future. The really great news is UW has two other outstanding recruits at that position that will undoubtedly make for a furious competition for next years starting spot. Mince no words here though, we will all probably be happy in the long run to move on from the Price era because of the teams overall failure in road games specifically, but no matter who is taking the helm there is always some growing pains with first year starters. Whoever it is will have a GREAT cast around them, but expect more bad decision making and more INTS than what we have seen out of Price as they grow and mature.

Defense:
Let's start in the DB category as this will be the biggest question mark for next season on that side of the ball.
3 of the current starting DB's will be graduating with Ducre being the one we will miss the least. Shamburger and Parker are big pieces in this years squad and will be missed. Only Peters returns. Some of the replacements have had time here and there all season and coaches have been high on them, but this unit has to be called a question mark until proven otherwise.
LB - Fuimaono and Tutogi are seniors, but Timu and Thompson are both returning as well as Feeny and Littleton among others who have had live time at that spot. I think we all feel pretty good about that unit going forward with Shaq a huge anchor on it.
DL - Potoa'e is the only notable DE/DT that is a senior. Shelton, Shirley, Hudson, Kikaha, and the rest should all be back and they have a few up and coming kids who might challenge for more game time.

That leaves special teams.
Coons is a senior and we cannot under value his addition to the team over the last two years. I don't remember the last time I saw a kid do both punting and kicking duties all year and he has now done just that out of necessity for parts of both seasons. Van Winkle should be able to take on the kicking duties provided he doesn't have some lingering injury. At Mt Si HS he set state records for single season and career FG's and all but 4 of his kickoffs his sr year ended in a touch back. He has a hell of a leg and we saw that on his kickoffs this year before he got injured. BTW, he too went both ways in HS and punted as well as kicked so if Durkee still sucks dicky they might have that option to do it again.

All in all, next year's team has a lot of promise. They don't lose most of their key players outside of Sean Parker and probably ASJ. Many of those kids in the recent recruiting classes that were so highly touted are going to be getting some game time and chances to replace the questionable returning players as well as add even more depth that this season. This should produce an even more fierce team than this years squad (thank god for that). With Oregon losing so many kids this year and the rest of the conference finding a lot more parody it should make for a season with even more expectations than this season.

Bottom line: With the continued year after year improvement in the recruiting classes and next years team being the first real season with full seniors from normal recruiting classes under Sark, there is nearly no way he isn't back to run that team next season, even if they lose all of their remaining games.

BTW, next year expect the offense to look a lot more like Oregon's. Like it or not Sark has been building his offense in a similar fashion. They won't be looking at the pure speed the ducks do, but are going to see the read zone implemented no matter which of the 3 QB's we get. All of them are bigger/faster/more run athletic than Price. I would expect that will be still passing down field a lot, but the running game is going to feature the QB now with Sankey leaving.

 

[TheDayMan]

Good analysis. I don't think Sark's seat is all that hot in reality, at least not nearly as hot as some on here may want it to be. Obviously none of us are all that happy with seeing the same old shit that leads to mediocrity, but I don't see Sark's job being in jeopardy until next year if this continues.

I hate the direction the offense is going by the way.

 

[uwdawgfan]

We still have 3 games left in this season, but there has already been talk of how hot Sark's seat is/should be and questions of where we are now, more or less what is coming next year and beyond.

Unless UW loses the apple cup I don't see any real discussions about getting a new HC and even if they did lose out the rest of the season I don't see the AD replacing him right now.

The problem is you normally give a HC 5 years as long as things are going in the right direction with recruiting to allow them to produce results with their own kids and in Sark's case his first class or two were on the heels of an 0-12 destruction of their brand and were not quality classes because of it. His first class came very late in the season and half of it was JC transfers because of it. And we all know there wasn't a single lineman in the class. His second class was obviously a big step up over that first one and was better than classes under Willingham, but he was still working on restoring the brand at that time.

Let's look at his recruiting classes. I will use Rivals ranks here, but it is a similar story on all of them.
2009 68th - terrible class because of how late the new staff was in place to create one.
2010 28th - Parker, Kohler, Smith, Cooper, Potoae all 4 star recruits.
2011 23rd - Sample, ASJ, Sankey, Shelton, KW all notable 4 stars in the class.
2012 21st - Beaver, Lindquist, Mickens, Miles, Vatuvei all 4 stars and 5 star standout Shaq Thompson.
2013 18th - Constantine, Daniels, Kelly, Mathis, Qualls, Stringfellow, Troy Williams all 4 stars.

Every class under Sark has been ranked higher than the last. I know WE all want results and will grade him based on those, but recruiting builds programs and the AD will be grading him as much on that as results. At some point you have prove you can lead those kids you have been attracting and the question is when will Sark be at a point where he can be graded more on those results?

If UW wins out (incl bowl) I don't think there will be much fan heat on him and most of this discussion will be moot, but anything less than that and some chatter will be there. To me the apple cup is the most important one. The cougs will likely NEED that game to be bowl eligible and should they lose that game at home I can see pitchforks going up and rightly so. But because of the progress in recruiting and what they are building there as well as what already appears to be some great pickups on future classes I don't see them replacing him. It just isn't going to happen regardless of what you think should happen.

So what about next year then? Well part of the beauty of having a younger team is they won't have a huge turnover of starters. In theory it should give you more progression as long as the kids who are staying another year are quality. We know that each class has been better than the last and so some of the starters have been younger kids in more recent classes who were better than his first recruits at those positions. The process then for building a mature program like Stanford and Oregon takes far more than 5 years. As for next season let's look at what we will be returning:
O Line - 4 of the starters are Jr's and one is a So. They were a better unit this year than last, but we all know the overall line play on both sides has not been up to UW standards. We don't know if these kids will keep on progressing, but there are some kids in later classes they can draw from. They will have a lot of depth and options here.
WR's - With KW out to injury combined with a fairly quiet year up until his injury I would guess he is almost certain to return. With him back next year the entire WR corp may be the strongest the school has had maybe ever. Mickens, Ross, Stringfellow all return and there are a couple of other kids coming off red shirts that will add to this unit.
RB - Sankey is almost surely going to leave. I think we would all say with as short as pro careers are for backs in the NFL he would be dumb not to take that jump. He may not end up being a first rounder, but he will be picked up and have a chance to make it. Cooper and Callier are both Jrs and oustanding RS Fr Washington will most certainly be seeing more game time. At 6'1" and 220lbs he gives you that punishing back on short yardage situations you need in this conference. Wooching will add another option next year in both blocking and rushing.
TE - I don't think anyone knows for sure what ASJ is going to do, but there is at least a good chance he leaves. He has had a quiet season so far, but he is an above average blocking TE that is on the radar of the pro scouts and would be picked up if he leaves. Let's assume he is gone. You still have Hartvigson and Perkins as well as a couple of frosh behind them. Perkins has already shown as a So that he has good hands and Hart has been a solid blocker over his career.


QB - It was great to get to see some real game time from Miles and I think we all came away from that with optimism for his future. The really great news is UW has two other outstanding recruits at that position that will undoubtedly make for a furious competition for next years starting spot. Mince no words here though, we will all probably be happy in the long run to move on from the Price era because of the teams overall failure in road games specifically, but no matter who is taking the helm there is always some growing pains with first year starters. Whoever it is will have a GREAT cast around them, but expect more bad decision making and more INTS than what we have seen out of Price as they grow and mature.

Defense:
Let's start in the DB category as this will be the biggest question mark for next season on that side of the ball.
3 of the current starting DB's will be graduating with Ducre being the one we will miss the least. Shamburger and Parker are big pieces in this years squad and will be missed. Only Peters returns. Some of the replacements have had time here and there all season and coaches have been high on them, but this unit has to be called a question mark until proven otherwise.
LB - Fuimaono and Tutogi are seniors, but Timu and Thompson are both returning as well as Feeny and Littleton among others who have had live time at that spot. I think we all feel pretty good about that unit going forward with Shaq a huge anchor on it.
DL - Potoa'e is the only notable DE/DT that is a senior. Shelton, Shirley, Hudson, Kikaha, and the rest should all be back and they have a few up and coming kids who might challenge for more game time.

That leaves special teams.
Coons is a senior and we cannot under value his addition to the team over the last two years. I don't remember the last time I saw a kid do both punting and kicking duties all year and he has now done just that out of necessity for parts of both seasons. Van Winkle should be able to take on the kicking duties provided he doesn't have some lingering injury. At Mt Si HS he set state records for single season and career FG's and all but 4 of his kickoffs his sr year ended in a touch back. He has a hell of a leg and we saw that on his kickoffs this year before he got injured. BTW, he too went both ways in HS and punted as well as kicked so if Durkee still sucks dicky they might have that option to do it again.

All in all, next year's team has a lot of promise. They don't lose most of their key players outside of Sean Parker and probably ASJ. Many of those kids in the recent recruiting classes that were so highly touted are going to be getting some game time and chances to replace the questionable returning players as well as add even more depth that this season. This should produce an even more fierce team than this years squad (thank god for that). With Oregon losing so many kids this year and the rest of the conference finding a lot more parody it should make for a season with even more expectations than this season.

Bottom line: With the continued year after year improvement in the recruiting classes and next years team being the first real season with full seniors from normal recruiting classes under Sark, there is nearly no way he isn't back to run that team next season, even if they lose all of their remaining games.

BTW, next year expect the offense to look a lot more like Oregon's. Like it or not Sark has been building his offense in a similar fashion. They won't be looking at the pure speed the ducks do, but are going to see the read zone implemented no matter which of the 3 QB's we get. All of them are bigger/faster/more run athletic than Price. I would expect that will be still passing down field a lot, but the running game is going to feature the QB now with Sankey leaving.

Nice work ....im willing to give him a couple more years because i know how hard it is to start over.