Full PPR top 12

[averagejoe]

While the Dallas O-line is heralded as a great line to run behind, I feel it should be noted that Dallas was one of the worst scoring offenses last year. And maybe that had to do with Romo missing time because of breaking his collarbone twice. But again, he broke it while being protected behind that same O-line.

I lean towards Treff.
Besides, Elliott may be gifted. But wait until he fails to pick up blitzes, doesn't hit holes fast enough, or fumbles, as all rookies seem to have to work through.


Reworked all of my number crunching.
Included one and two-year players.
But still includes all stats from the last 3 seasons (games, receptions, yards, and TD).
So if you like averages, these are the top 12 PPR averages:

356.7 - Antonio Brown
309.8 - Demaryius Thomas
306.3 - Odell Beckham
275.3 - Brandon Marshall
263.8 - A.J. Green
260.5 - Julio Jones
260.3 - Jeremy Maclin
245.6 - DeAndre Hopkins
233.1 - Dez Bryant
232.6 - Emmanuel Sanders
230.1 - T.Y. Hilton
230.0 - Alshon Jeffery

The next group was Evans, Fitz, Landry, Matthews, Tate, Boldin, Edelman, ARob, Watkins, Garcon, Baldwin, Nelson, Cobb.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I feel that there are two reasons to at least hedge on AP. The obvious one is that at 32 a little drop off would not be unreasonable to project. The other reason is how the Viking handle this. Do they try to extend his career and keep him fresh by not leaning on him as hard as they have in the pass ? Would seem like a smart way to go to protect your most valuable asset.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Let's take a quick look at AP last season in various formats, only considering RB/WR/TE:

Full PPR: 13th
1/2 PPR: 8th
Standard: 6th
1/2 PPR and 1/2 rush rec 1st downs: 8th

Looks to me that you should only slot him down a notch if your league is going full PPR.
More and more that I seem to come across have switched to half PPR, which really doesn't downgrade AP enough (considering lack of positional depth) for me to avoid him.

Don't forget, he had a year off where he wasn't injured, and didn't get tackled 400 times by angry men in a 4 month stretch. Could easily still have juice left in the tank for 1 more season.

 

[averagejoe]

There are a select few RB that can push the boundaries when it comes to the normal lifespan of an NFL RB. There haven't been many. Probably why they are HOF caliber.

AP happens to be one of them. Gore may be the other.

My theory on RB of this rare nature... ride them while you can.
Especially since the field is younger and still has trouble keeping up.

 

[tlance]

There are a select few RB that can push the boundaries when it comes to the normal lifespan of an NFL RB. There haven't been many. Probably why they are HOF caliber.

AP happens to be one of them. Gore may be the other.

My theory on RB of this rare nature... ride them while you can.
Especially since the field is younger and still has trouble keeping up.

I agree, but I would also rather be a year early than a year late when talking about a first round pick. I am only taking AP when I think his upside outweighs the risk. I don't see that point in the first round of PPR.

Elliott may be riskier, but I also think he has a higher ceiling given AP's age.

 

[TREFF]

I feel that there are two reasons to at least hedge on AP. The obvious one is that at 32 a little drop off would not be unreasonable to project. The other reason is how the Viking handle this. Do they try to extend his career and keep him fresh by not leaning on him as hard as they have in the pass ? Would seem like a smart way to go to protect your most valuable asset.

I think the Vikes will run him until he dies. I think they're under no delusions that it's a given he stays in Minnesota once his contract is up after next year, and if they have to release him because they ran him into the ground this year, so be it, a 33 year old RB isn't exactly someone you build around, no matter who he is.

And him not being a top 3 pick is already hedging plenty

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think the Vikes will run him until he dies. I think they're under no delusions that it's a given he stays in Minnesota once his contract is up after next year, and if they have to release him because they ran him into the ground this year, so be it, a 33 year old RB isn't exactly someone you build around, no matter who he is.

And him not being a top 3 pick is already hedging plenty

This is for a full PPR league and according to monkey AP was 13th last year, so not making him top three pick is not hedging. Hedging would be projecting him to be a tad less then 13th.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Let's take a quick look at AP last season in various formats, only considering RB/WR/TE:

Full PPR: 13th
1/2 PPR: 8th
Standard: 6th
1/2 PPR and 1/2 rush rec 1st downs: 8th

Looks to me that you should only slot him down a notch if your league is going full PPR.
More and more that I seem to come across have switched to half PPR, which really doesn't downgrade AP enough (considering lack of positional depth) for me to avoid him.

Don't forget, he had a year off where he wasn't injured, and didn't get tackled 400 times by angry men in a 4 month stretch. Could easily still have juice left in the tank for 1 more season.

But even that. I'm more concerned about the WR that also get a bump throughout the draft. I'm not so much worried about AP vs Hopkins or Mike Evans, as I am looking at the later tier backs that I'll need to rely on. Will Woodhead score 9 TD again? That's what I'm worried about. That's the risks I'm not looking to take. Sure, a Freeman rises out of those ashes sometimes, but even then, can't be relied upon throughout the season like AP.

I'll say it again, Gore is still a top 20 back, and has two years on AP and maybe 3/4 the talent. Plus, (as monkey mentioned), of any of the best RB to ever play, has any of them had a healthy year off at 29? I doubt it.


But as always, it doesn't matter what you do in round one. It's the entirety of the draft that effects your results. So if the majority prefers to take Mike Evans and Dez Bryant early and see what happens at RB in the mid rounds, who am I to argue? I just prefer to grab some major RB talent early and find the Watkins and Robinsons that seem more plentiful every year and/or week to week.

It's all preference. I'm just shocked that AP is the consensus risky pick this year (not here, but in the podcast/expert world). Risky. Double digit TD every year. Risky. One injury worth mentioning in 9 years. Risky. Best player on his team, in great shape..... Risky? Maybe I don't know what risky means.

 

[TREFF]

This is for a full PPR league and according to monkey AP was 13th last year, so not making him top three pick is not hedging. Hedging would be projecting him to be a tad less then 13th.

13th scorer, #2 RB though, by a decent margin, .value and position scarcity speaking. .the #2 RB is worth more than the #10 WR, as the number 11 through 20 WR's were all pretty similar, thus, the RB has a higher value in draft day. ..same reason why Gronk is worth a first round pick, he'll get outscored in raw numbers by plenty of guys, but he beats the hell out of most every other TE, so he's worth more than the second tier WR's, even though many might outscore him

 

[TREFF]

13th scorer, #2 RB though, by a decent margin, .value and position scarcity speaking. .the #2 RB is worth more than the #10 WR, as the number 11 through 20 WR's were all pretty similar, thus, the RB has a higher value in draft day. ..same reason why Gronk is worth a first round pick, he'll get outscored in raw numbers by plenty of guys, but he beats the hell out of most every other TE, so he's worth more than the second tier WR's, even though many might outscore him

Oh..and the only RB to outscore him in ppr last year, is highly unlikely to repeat, so might as well call him #1

 

[TKOSpikes]

Charles Sims is another name that gets thrown around for great PPR value. Well, did you know he had THREE games with more than three catches? Of his 49 catches, 9 came in week 17 against a Panthers team looking at a bye.

That's just one example. I'm sure there's more.

There are three elite WR. No argument from anyone on that. I'll even give you Green and Hopkins to be fair, though I really don't want to. Marshall should probably get a nod too, but he gets no love either... beyond that, what are talking about here? There's just too many bodies that will catch 60-80 balls, with 800-1000 yards. TD are too fickle to be relied upon...................... which is where AP destroys them all. So yeah, I'll pass on Green, Hopkins and the rest to secure my RB1, but that is due to my preference of avoiding the "50 catch backs" as my needed RB2, and targeting the 70 catch receivers in the mid rounds.

 

[tlance]

Charles Sims is another name that gets thrown around for great PPR value. Well, did you know he had THREE games with more than three catches? Of his 49 catches, 9 came in week 17 against a Panthers team looking at a bye.

That's just one example. I'm sure there's more.

There are three elite WR. No argument from anyone on that. I'll even give you Green and Hopkins to be fair, though I really don't want to. Marshall should probably get a nod too, but he gets no love either... beyond that, what are talking about here? There's just too many bodies that will catch 60-80 balls, with 800-1000 yards. TD are too fickle to be relied upon...................... which is where AP destroys them all. So yeah, I'll pass on Green, Hopkins and the rest to secure my RB1, but that is due to my preference of avoiding the "50 catch backs" as my needed RB2, and targeting the 70 catch receivers in the mid rounds.

I don't really want to get too far into the debate of just how valuable AP should be. That has been done. My point is that Treff is wrong to essentially call out people who have Elliott rated higher. There are many very good fantasy football minds who agree with that sentiment. Time will tell whether they are correct or not.

 

[TREFF]

I get called out all the time, sometimes I'm dead wrong, but I never feel like no one had the right to call me out. As long as they have some factual based, realistic reasons for doing so I have no issue with them. No reason to think anyone should have an issue with me doing the same.

Give me one real reason why AP, the #2 PPR back in the league just last year, deserves a knock down in PPR, but a rookie, unproven to say the least, with zero assurances of being heavily involved in the passing game, who barely averaged 2 catches a game in college, can get a free pass into the first round, and I'll admit I'm out of line, otherwise, my objections have merit and I feel not only do I have the right to call someone out, but maybe even an obligation.

We refer to Karabell, Berry, Cockcroft, Clay, Yates, virtually everyone at Yahoo, and many others idiots on their rankings all the time, yet no one seems to think that's out of line. .and yes we..all of us have done it.

 

[SteelersPride]

OKKK heres mine
1-Julio Jones
2-ODB
3-AB
4-Dez
5-AJ Green'
6-David Johnson
7-Adrian Peterson
8-Mike Evans
9-Brandon marshall
10-Deandre Hopkins
11-Brand cooks
12-Leveon Bell

 

[TREFF]

You see big things from Bell in his 12 games eh? Or is the news in Pit that he'll win the appeal?

 

[ehb5]

I get called out all the time, sometimes I'm dead wrong, but I never feel like no one had the right to call me out. As long as they have some factual based, realistic reasons for doing so I have no issue with them. No reason to think anyone should have an issue with me doing the same.

Give me one real reason why AP, the #2 PPR back in the league just last year, deserves a knock down in PPR, but a rookie, unproven to say the least, with zero assurances of being heavily involved in the passing game, who barely averaged 2 catches a game in college, can get a free pass into the first round, and I'll admit I'm out of line, otherwise, my objections have merit and I feel not only do I have the right to call someone out, but maybe even an obligation.

We refer to Karabell, Berry, Cockcroft, Clay, Yates, virtually everyone at Yahoo, and many others idiots on their rankings all the time, yet no one seems to think that's out of line. .and yes we..all of us have done it.

Zeke plays behind a much better oline, on a team that also likely wants to run a lot, can catch the ball well, was drafted 4th overall this year, and the team supposedly has no problem feeding him the ball nonstop, and he's not 31. I don't think it's crazy at all to want AP over Zeke but I don't think the it's crazy to want Zeke over AP either. There's a case for both imo (and that's from somebody who isn't a huge Zeke fan - at least in comparison to what I've seen on here in dynasty)

 

[ehb5]

But even that. I'm more concerned about the WR that also get a bump throughout the draft. I'm not so much worried about AP vs Hopkins or Mike Evans, as I am looking at the later tier backs that I'll need to rely on. Will Woodhead score 9 TD again? That's what I'm worried about. That's the risks I'm not looking to take. Sure, a Freeman rises out of those ashes sometimes, but even then, can't be relied upon throughout the season like AP.

I'll say it again, Gore is still a top 20 back, and has two years on AP and maybe 3/4 the talent. Plus, (as monkey mentioned), of any of the best RB to ever play, has any of them had a healthy year off at 29? I doubt it.


But as always, it doesn't matter what you do in round one. It's the entirety of the draft that effects your results. So if the majority prefers to take Mike Evans and Dez Bryant early and see what happens at RB in the mid rounds, who am I to argue? I just prefer to grab some major RB talent early and find the Watkins and Robinsons that seem more plentiful every year and/or week to week.

It's all preference. I'm just shocked that AP is the consensus risky pick this year (not here, but in the podcast/expert world). Risky. Double digit TD every year. Risky. One injury worth mentioning in 9 years. Risky. Best player on his team, in great shape..... Risky? Maybe I don't know what risky means.

I don't see what gore has to do with anything really though. Occlusion RBs can last past 31 but historically they don't. AP probably has a better chance than most and is certainly still worth a high pick. But historically speaking there is more risk there than if he were 27.

 

[SteelersPride]

You see big things from Bell in his 12 games eh? Or is the news in Pit that he'll win the appeal?

word is steelers think they will have him week 1

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Charles Sims is another name that gets thrown around for great PPR value. Well, did you know he had THREE games with more than three catches? Of his 49 catches, 9 came in week 17 against a Panthers team looking at a bye.

That's just one example. I'm sure there's more.

There are three elite WR. No argument from anyone on that. I'll even give you Green and Hopkins to be fair, though I really don't want to. Marshall should probably get a nod too, but he gets no love either... beyond that, what are talking about here? There's just too many bodies that will catch 60-80 balls, with 800-1000 yards. TD are too fickle to be relied upon...................... which is where AP destroys them all. So yeah, I'll pass on Green, Hopkins and the rest to secure my RB1, but that is due to my preference of avoiding the "50 catch backs" as my needed RB2, and targeting the 70 catch receivers in the mid rounds.

Agree totally on guys like Sims, the PPR love confuses me

Ill toss in a few guys along those lines that I think are getting way too much love

Riddick
Woodhead
Gio

In head to head leagues, the inconsistency of this group will drive you crazy
I had both Woodhead and Riddick at points last season, and in Woodheads case, some big weeks, than some weeks where he gave me numbers I expect from a backup.....Riddick was far worse, the zero contribution weeks were far too many.....And with Gio, the end zone is not his friend, so you are really relying on 7-9 catch games, which happened a grand total of zero times last season

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Agree totally on guys like Sims, the PPR love confuses me

Ill toss in a few guys along those lines that I think are getting way too much love

Riddick
Woodhead
Gio

In head to head leagues, the inconsistency of this group will drive you crazy
I had both Woodhead and Riddick at points last season, and in Woodheads case, some big weeks, than some weeks where he gave me numbers I expect from a backup.....Riddick was far worse, the zero contribution weeks were far too many.....And with Gio, the end zone is not his friend, so you are really relying on 7-9 catch games, which happened a grand total of zero times last season

more zero RB strategy = more likely people will be relying on those RBs to be their RB2s
That's why they are getting a lot of attention/love.

I'd be very hard pressed to make it 6 rounds in a draft without getting at least 2 RBs before that grouping, but to each his own.