Fantasy Football News and Rumors

[averagejoe]

I'd be very surprised if he ended up with more than 20% in '25..and if he does, it means Harvey is likely a bust

Not necessarily. It could just mean there were a rabid group of rookie groupies who once again overhyped a RB based on his landing spot.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Not necessarily. It could just mean there were a rabid group of rookie groupies who once again overhyped a RB based on his landing spot.

2nd round draft capital >>>> landing spot

 

[wilwhite]

2nd round draft capital >>>> landing spot

Let's go to the tape!

2nd-Round RB carries per game in rookie season:

2015 TJ Yeldon - 15
2015 Ameeeeeer - 9
2016 King Henry - 7
2017 Dalvin - 19
2017 Mixon - 13
2018 Chubb - 12
2018 R. Jones II - 3
2019 M. Sanders - 11
2020 Swift - 9
2020 Taylor - 15
2020 Akers - 11
2020 Dobbins - 9
2020 Dillon - 4
2021 Javonte - 12
2022 Hall - 11
2022 Walker - 15
2022 J. Cook - 6
2023 Charbonnet - 7
2024 Brooks - 3

That's quite a distribution.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Let's go to the tape!

2nd-Round RB carries per game in rookie season:

2015 TJ Yeldon - 15
2015 Ameeeeeer - 9
2016 King Henry - 7
2017 Dalvin - 19
2017 Mixon - 13
2018 Chubb - 12
2018 R. Jones II - 3
2019 M. Sanders - 11
2020 Swift - 9
2020 Taylor - 15
2020 Akers - 11
2020 Dobbins - 9
2020 Dillon - 4
2021 Javonte - 12
2022 Hall - 11
2022 Walker - 15
2022 J. Cook - 6
2023 Charbonnet - 7
2024 Brooks - 3

That's quite a distribution.

Pretty much every name on that list is better than Audric Estime

 

[averagejoe]

That's quite a distribution.

I forgot to factor in that Estime only played 13 games too. So that bumps his rushing attempta from 20% to 26%.

 

[TREFF]

Let's go to the tape!

2nd-Round RB carries per game in rookie season:

2015 TJ Yeldon - 15
2015 Ameeeeeer - 9
2016 King Henry - 7
2017 Dalvin - 19
2017 Mixon - 13
2018 Chubb - 12
2018 R. Jones II - 3
2019 M. Sanders - 11
2020 Swift - 9
2020 Taylor - 15
2020 Akers - 11
2020 Dobbins - 9
2020 Dillon - 4
2021 Javonte - 12
2022 Hall - 11
2022 Walker - 15
2022 J. Cook - 6
2023 Charbonnet - 7
2024 Brooks - 3

That's quite a distribution.

Deeper dive on those numbers-

2015 TJ Yeldon - 15 leader on the team by 10
2015 Ameeeeeer - 9 split time with incumbent J. Bell- lead team
2016 King Henry - 7 - spent a year behind 3 time all pro D. Murray
2017 Dalvin - 19 - only played the first 4 games, but was unquestioned lead back ahead of Lat. Murray.
2017 Mixon - 13 - split time with Gio Bernard, a somewhat successful NFL back,
2018 Chubb - 12 - this one is interesting. Rode bench behind Carlos Hyde, averaged about 3 attempts the fist 7 games. Then he forced Carlos Hyde- not to the bench, but all the way to JAX., and for the next 9 games he averaged 19 rushes a game
2018 R. Jones II - 3 - first guy on the list who i would simply say is a bust.
2019 M. Sanders - 11 - split time with Jordan Howard- coming off 3200+ the past 3 seasons in Chic.
2020 Swift - 9 - I mean, the dude was on the same roster with Adrian Peterson who even at 35 was hitting 4 ypc
2020 Taylor - 15 - 10 attempts per game higher than any one else on the team
2020 Akers - 11 - 3 backs on the team had a 100+ carries. Cam is right on the edge of a bust, but he's held on longer than I thought he would
2020 Dobbins - 9 - Lamar led this team in carries, and f'n Gus Bus was around-but- 4.1 carries per game wks 1-6, 12 carries per game rest of the season- which led the team
2020 Dillon - 4 - Aaron Jones firmly entrenched as the starter coming off 1K and 16 scores in '19.
2021 Javonte - 12 - near dead even split with MGIII - a very respected producer at the time
2022 Hall - 11 - only played in seven games- was hitting stride at 18 per game in the three prior to the injury
2022 Walker - 15 - split time early with Penny - hit 18.6 per game from week 5 to end of season
2022 J. Cook - 6 - Devin Singletary and Josh Allen were the RB's on that team that year
2023 Charbonnet - 7 -Walker the unquestioned starter- only got real PT when Walker was out. Averaged 16 carries in games without Walker
2024 Brooks - 3 - hurt for camp, hurt for opening of the season, hurt for end of the season- only played in three games mid season-

Synopsis?
It would certainly appear that, unless there is an established incumbent starter already around, a 2nd round draft capital HIGHLY suggests that back will be the lead guy that rookie season. Perhaps not the week 1 guy, but no later than mid season. The only exceptions being the Ronald Jones III complete bust, my boy Ameeeeer, who I will always say was done dirty in Detroit, and the Cam Akers situation. Everyone else either was the guy, or the team already had an established producer.

 

[wilwhite]

Deeper dive on those numbers-

2015 TJ Yeldon - 15 leader on the team by 10
2015 Ameeeeeer - 9 split time with incumbent J. Bell- lead team
2016 King Henry - 7 - spent a year behind 3 time all pro D. Murray
2017 Dalvin - 19 - only played the first 4 games, but was unquestioned lead back ahead of Lat. Murray.
2017 Mixon - 13 - split time with Gio Bernard, a somewhat successful NFL back,
2018 Chubb - 12 - this one is interesting. Rode bench behind Carlos Hyde, averaged about 3 attempts the fist 7 games. Then he forced Carlos Hyde- not to the bench, but all the way to JAX., and for the next 9 games he averaged 19 rushes a game
2018 R. Jones II - 3 - first guy on the list who i would simply say is a bust.
2019 M. Sanders - 11 - split time with Jordan Howard- coming off 3200+ the past 3 seasons in Chic.
2020 Swift - 9 - I mean, the dude was on the same roster with Adrian Peterson who even at 35 was hitting 4 ypc
2020 Taylor - 15 - 10 attempts per game higher than any one else on the team
2020 Akers - 11 - 3 backs on the team had a 100+ carries. Cam is right on the edge of a bust, but he's held on longer than I thought he would
2020 Dobbins - 9 - Lamar led this team in carries, and f'n Gus Bus was around-but- 4.1 carries per game wks 1-6, 12 carries per game rest of the season- which led the team
2020 Dillon - 4 - Aaron Jones firmly entrenched as the starter coming off 1K and 16 scores in '19.
2021 Javonte - 12 - near dead even split with MGIII - a very respected producer at the time
2022 Hall - 11 - only played in seven games- was hitting stride at 18 per game in the three prior to the injury
2022 Walker - 15 - split time early with Penny - hit 18.6 per game from week 5 to end of season
2022 J. Cook - 6 - Devin Singletary and Josh Allen were the RB's on that team that year
2023 Charbonnet - 7 -Walker the unquestioned starter- only got real PT when Walker was out. Averaged 16 carries in games without Walker
2024 Brooks - 3 - hurt for camp, hurt for opening of the season, hurt for end of the season- only played in three games mid season-

Synopsis?
It would certainly appear that, unless there is an established incumbent starter already around, a 2nd round draft capital HIGHLY suggests that back will be the lead guy that rookie season. Perhaps not the week 1 guy, but no later than mid season. The only exceptions being the Ronald Jones III complete bust, my boy Ameeeeer, who I will always say was done dirty in Detroit, and the Cam Akers situation. Everyone else either was the guy, or the team already had an established producer.

Great analysis. So in the draft capital v landing spot debate, landing behind an established producer defeats second-round capital, at least for the first couple of months.

 

[TREFF]

Great analysis. So in the draft capital v landing spot debate, landing behind an established producer defeats second-round capital, at least for the first couple of months.

that would be my conclusion..yes

In the Bronco's case..their incumbent is currently on the Cowboys roster, so- AJ Harvey should be fine- assuming he's not the next Ronald Jones, the third, or the next Jonathon Brooks

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Great analysis. So in the draft capital v landing spot debate, landing behind an established producer defeats second-round capital, at least for the first couple of months.

Harvey.....

 

[wilwhite]

that would be my conclusion..yes

In the Bronco's case..their incumbent is currently on the Cowboys roster, so- AJ Harvey should be fine- assuming he's not the next Ronald Jones, the third, or the next Jonathon Brooks

It’s not AJ Harvey, it’s PJ Harvey.

 

[averagejoe]

Why cant we postpone the rookie draft so we can have these debates?

 

[TREFF]

It’s not AJ Harvey, it’s PJ Harvey.

shit..I KNEW I'd make that mistake at some point..damnit

 

[wilwhite]

shit..I KNEW I'd make that mistake at some point..damnit
View attachment 399104

(It’s actually RJ Harvey. I was being funny with PJ.)

 

[Shanemansj13]

Until he fumbles again..like he did the very first time he touched it.

I'd be very surprised if he ended up with more than 20% in '25..and if he does, it means Harvey is likely a bust

Yeah blah blah blah…keep the player happy until he fucks up once

 

[Shanemansj13]

Pretty much every name on that list is better than Audric Estime

Estime is more of a short yardage/GL back too right? Just that aspect is likely going to limit his carries

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Estime is more of a short yardage/GL back too right? Just that aspect is likely going to limit his carries

Yeah big back who isn't any thing special as a athlete although probably average for his size. Given that neither Harvey or McLaughlin are large or a power back, Estime niche will be short yardage and maybe goal line back.

 

[wilwhite]

I'll add that being capable in pass protection is key to getting snaps, which is key to being an established productive back. A better back has to learn to handle NFL pass rushers before they can bust out fantasy-wise. I noticed Chase Brown had gotten better at that last preseason so I was bullish on him.

 

[TREFF]

I'll add that being capable in pass protection is key to getting snaps, which is key to being an established productive back. A better back has to learn to handle NFL pass rushers before they can bust out fantasy-wise. I noticed Chase Brown had gotten better at that last preseason so I was bullish on him.

Certainly true for a Sean Peyton O.
McLaughlin really tries, but sucks at it cuz he's friggin tiny. Estime..meh..Harvey yet to be seen but allegedly he's adequate

 

[Chef99]

Anyone know how much they signed him for?

This whole thing is very weird.

The Browns upper management is very weird.

• Browns signed No. 94 overall pick QB Dillon Gabriel to a four-year contract.
  Gabriel took the bulk of the first-team reps over Shedeur Sanders in rookie minicamp. The Browns have been mixing up the starter reps in OTAs and head coach Kevin Stefanski has said repeatedly not to read into the order of quarterback reps this early in the process. Joe Flacco looks like the best bet to be the team’s Week 1 starter, but at least one of the rookies, if not both, will start at some point this year. As the team’s first quarterback selection in the draft, Gabriel should get the first crack at the job once Stefanski benches his veteran of choice. Whether they want to admit it or not, this is a rebuilding season for Cleveland.
  

 

[TREFF]

Why cant we postpone the rookie draft so we can have these debates?

Becuase then we'd get a bunch of semi secretive, misleading, horse pucky so that we don't tip our hands for the rookie draft