Fantasy Football News and Rumors

[eaglesnut]

I suspect he'll be playing at 26 if I was doing an over/under.

Under

 

[Bandit]

I guess that will depend on what Cousins has done in his first two years. If they are legit contenders and he is playing well then it will be interesting. I think the biggest question is will he stay healthy. Not too crazy he can still be a top QB by 36 or 37

That's exactly it and why the pick made no damn sense. If Cousins takes them to the playoffs the next two years, then Penix isn't seeing the field in year 3. By making that pick, you are essentially rooting for failure from the guy you just signed to a 4 year $180 million contract and you gave him a no trade clause, so even if you wanted to get rid of him and play Penix you can't. There is a less than 0 percent chance that Michael Penix doesn't play a game before they have to make a decision on his 5th year option which will be the year he turns 28.

 

[Shanemansj13]

That's exactly it and why the pick made no damn sense. If Cousins takes them to the playoffs the next two years, then Penix isn't seeing the field in year 3. By making that pick, you are essentially rooting for failure from the guy you just signed to a 4 year $180 million contract and you gave him a no trade clause, so even if you wanted to get rid of him and play Penix you can't. There is a less than 0 percent chance that Michael Penix doesn't play a game before they have to make a decision on his 5th year option which will be the year he turns 28.

If Cousins signs a 2 year deal we aren't having this conversation right now. I just think Atlanta screwed up the timeline and they panicked to beat out other teams for Cousins so they offered a 4 year deal, a ton of guaranteed money and a no trade clause knowing he would take it. Even if they decide to go to Penix year 3, he has the no trade clause and he is a $35M dead cap hit. That will be a huge burden for a team trying to compete at the top of the conference.
Also, if Penix was drafted late 1st I would have no problem with it. You are paying a guy that won't see the field for AT LEAST 2 years $6M/yr and he isn't a veteran that can just come in and light it up if Cousins gets hurt.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

That's exactly it and why the pick made no damn sense. If Cousins takes them to the playoffs the next two years, then Penix isn't seeing the field in year 3. By making that pick, you are essentially rooting for failure from the guy you just signed to a 4 year $180 million contract and you gave him a no trade clause, so even if you wanted to get rid of him and play Penix you can't. There is a less than 0 percent chance that Michael Penix doesn't play a game before they have to make a decision on his 5th year option which will be the year he turns 28.

Agreed, this doesn't even take into account that Penix had to go to the Pac12 to put up good numbers too.

Cousins dead cap hits of $65mil next yr and $35mil in '26. Zero chance they put their $100mil man on the bench unless Cousins isn't healthy.

I know we all like to laugh about the pick, but when you consider the QB talent across the league coupled with the going rate for a decent QB2, not the worst thing to have a backup with upside developing in the wings. Who knows, maybe they'll be able to pull some magic out of their hat, showcase him a little bit here and there in ideal situations and trade him in a few years.

In March I'm pretty sure we all would've agreed that the Falcons would be donezo if Cousins got hurt, now maybe not? Just trying to see a positive here when it really looks like a total waste of primo draft capital 1 week after the draft.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

If Cousins signs a 2 year deal we aren't having this conversation right now. I just think Atlanta screwed up the timeline and they panicked to beat out other teams for Cousins so they offered a 4 year deal, a ton of guaranteed money and a no trade clause knowing he would take it. Even if they decide to go to Penix year 3, he has the no trade clause and he is a $35M dead cap hit. That will be a huge burden for a team trying to compete at the top of the conference.
Also, if Penix was drafted late 1st I would have no problem with it. You are paying a guy that won't see the field for AT LEAST 2 years $6M/yr and he isn't a veteran that can just come in and light it up if Cousins gets hurt.

we were posting very similar thoughts at the same time here. will be interesting to see if Penix is ahead of Heinickie in his rookie season. If you drafted him to develop, could see having him as QB3, which would make a top 10 selection look even worse

 

[Clayton]

Agreed, this doesn't even take into account that Penix had to go to the Pac12 to put up good numbers too.

Cousins dead cap hits of $65mil next yr and $35mil in '26. Zero chance they put their $100mil man on the bench unless Cousins isn't healthy.

I know we all like to laugh about the pick, but when you consider the QB talent across the league coupled with the going rate for a decent QB2, not the worst thing to have a backup with upside developing in the wings. Who knows, maybe they'll be able to pull some magic out of their hat, showcase him a little bit here and there in ideal situations and trade him in a few years.

In March I'm pretty sure we all would've agreed that the Falcons would be donezo if Cousins got hurt, now maybe not? Just trying to see a positive here when it really looks like a total waste of primo draft capital 1 week after the draft.

My guess is their read on the situation is that they think Cousins has a good chance of regressing after 2 years and the money saved from having a rookie contract balances out the overpay for Cousins. To me it seems like they made a 2nd risky bet to make up for their first risky bet but if both bets bust (because they're risky) then its going to look really ugly.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Even if they decide to go to Penix year 3, he has the no trade clause and he is a $35M dead cap hit.

25 million cap hit actually. Cousins isn't going to be in any pre season activity and perhaps may not be ready at the start of the season possibly. Injury is always a concern with these grey beards. Likely Cousins starts for two years then Penix takes over. The thought behind this I would guess is they don't see the team picking early enough in the near future to replace Cousins at QB. The team got a taste of how it feels to roll with a dart at QB like Ridder or Heinicke and want to avoid that situation in the future. The no trade clause isn't a problem because they'll cut Cousins after the first two seasons.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

My guess is their read on the situation is that they think Cousins has a good chance of regressing after 2 years and the money saved from having a rookie contract balances out the overpay for Cousins. To me it seems like they made a 2nd risky bet to make up for their first risky bet but if both bets bust (because they're risky) then its going to look really ugly.

do we have any recent examples of QBs coming back from Achilles tears now that we'll have both Cousins and Rodgers this season?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

25 million cap hit actually. Cousins isn't going to be in any pre season activity and perhaps may not be ready at the start of the season possibly. Injury is always a concern with these grey beards. Likely Cousins starts for two years then Penix takes over. The thought behind this I would guess is they don't see the team picking early enough in the near future to replace Cousins at QB. The team got a taste of how it feels to roll with a dart at QB like Ridder or Heinicke and want to avoid that situation in the future. The no trade clause isn't a problem because they'll cut Cousins after the first two seasons.

sportrac has the "out" in the contract as being after the 3rd year, with a $35mil dead cap hit if they cut him in 2 years. But I think your overall point hits the nail on the head - Falcons are betting that they won't have another top 10 pick while Cousins is their QB.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

 

[TREFF]

do we have any recent examples of QBs coming back from Achilles tears now that we'll have both Cousins and Rodgers this season?

Marino and VinnyTesticles

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Marino and VinnyTesticles

if that's as recent as it gets, I'll take that as a no

 

[HaroldSeattle]

View attachment 361136

OTC has the dead cap at 25 million. It appears spotrac is including the roster bonus which he only collects if he is on the roster the 5th day of the 2026 season.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

OTC has the dead cap at 25 million. It appears spotrac is including the roster bonus which he only collects if he is on the roster the 5th day of the 2026 season.

View attachment 361138

I never fully understand all this cap mumbo jumbo - so that means they'd have to cut him a month before the draft to recoup that extra $10mil, right?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I never fully understand all this cap mumbo jumbo - so that means they'd have to cut him a month before the draft to recoup that extra $10mil, right?

Yes but I'm no contract expert either so I could be wrong.

 

[Bandit]

If Cousins signs a 2 year deal we aren't having this conversation right now. I just think Atlanta screwed up the timeline and they panicked to beat out other teams for Cousins so they offered a 4 year deal, a ton of guaranteed money and a no trade clause knowing he would take it. Even if they decide to go to Penix year 3, he has the no trade clause and he is a $35M dead cap hit. That will be a huge burden for a team trying to compete at the top of the conference.
Also, if Penix was drafted late 1st I would have no problem with it. You are paying a guy that won't see the field for AT LEAST 2 years $6M/yr and he isn't a veteran that can just come in and light it up if Cousins gets hurt.

Agreed, this doesn't even take into account that Penix had to go to the Pac12 to put up good numbers too.

Cousins dead cap hits of $65mil next yr and $35mil in '26. Zero chance they put their $100mil man on the bench unless Cousins isn't healthy.

I know we all like to laugh about the pick, but when you consider the QB talent across the league coupled with the going rate for a decent QB2, not the worst thing to have a backup with upside developing in the wings. Who knows, maybe they'll be able to pull some magic out of their hat, showcase him a little bit here and there in ideal situations and trade him in a few years.

In March I'm pretty sure we all would've agreed that the Falcons would be donezo if Cousins got hurt, now maybe not? Just trying to see a positive here when it really looks like a total waste of primo draft capital 1 week after the draft.

My guess is their read on the situation is that they think Cousins has a good chance of regressing after 2 years and the money saved from having a rookie contract balances out the overpay for Cousins. To me it seems like they made a 2nd risky bet to make up for their first risky bet but if both bets bust (because they're risky) then its going to look really ugly.

25 million cap hit actually. Cousins isn't going to be in any pre season activity and perhaps may not be ready at the start of the season possibly. Injury is always a concern with these grey beards. Likely Cousins starts for two years then Penix takes over. The thought behind this I would guess is they don't see the team picking early enough in the near future to replace Cousins at QB. The team got a taste of how it feels to roll with a dart at QB like Ridder or Heinicke and want to avoid that situation in the future. The no trade clause isn't a problem because they'll cut Cousins after the first two seasons.

My biggest problem with all of this is just that it's not fair to Michael Penix. He really deserved to go somewhere that he had the chance to start right away at his age and experience. It's kind of crappy that he's basically at the mercy of the Falcons and there's absolutely nothing he can do about it until his rookie contract is up.

 

[Clayton]

do we have any recent examples of QBs coming back from Achilles tears now that we'll have both Cousins and Rodgers this season?

In general I think 38 is a common 'wheels fall off' age limit. Cousins in 2 years. Rodgers when the Packers ditched him. Seems like a smart age to let go.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

My biggest problem with all of this is just that it's not fair to Michael Penix. He really deserved to go somewhere that he had the chance to start right away at his age and experience. It's kind of crappy that he's basically at the mercy of the Falcons and there's absolutely nothing he can do about it until his rookie contract is up.

I agree that it's a tough situation for Penix but at the same time glad to see him drafted top 10 after plenty of draft guru's had him going 2-3 round.

 

[Bandit]

In general I think 38 is a common 'wheels fall off' age limit. Cousins in 2 years. Rodgers when the Packers ditched him. Seems like a smart age to let go.

Yes but if that's the case then that was a stupid ass contract they gave him. I don't think it matters how you look at it, they either screwed up drafting Penix or screwed up by giving Cousins the contract they did.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

they either screwed up drafting Penix or screwed up by giving Cousins the contract they did.