ESPN Insider's NFL Summer Snapshots

[iowajerms]

BUFFALO BILLS
By Eric Karabell

As the countdown continues to September NFL action, ESPN Fantasy takes a closer look at each franchise as it trains and goes camping. Here is what fantasy owners should be watching for over the summer. Join the conversation on Twitter: #FantasySnapshot

What’s changed? Certainly the lead voice for the Bills' organization is a new one, and after 15 years without a playoff berth, perhaps it’s a good thing. The bombastic Rex Ryan leaves one AFC East team that was hardly an offensive juggernaut for another, though adding top-shelf running back LeSean McCoy in trade with the Philadelphia Eagles should help. Ryan, being a defense-minded individual, certainly has the pieces in place for another top unit there, but with EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel at quarterback, it’s a bit like relying on Mark Sanchez all over again to score the team’s points. The Jets did have modest playoff success, and the Bills, believe it or not, are poised to do the same.

Who’s motivated? It might or might not be an open competition at quarterback, where Manuel, entering his critical third season, has added muscle in an attempt to remain upright and on the field. Certainly the Bills would prefer that Manuel, the former first-round pick, earn the job. However, as motivated as Manuel should be, it pales in comparison to what McCoy must be thinking. The Eagles’ all-time leading rusher was shockingly and without warning sent packing in a trade for linebacker Kiko Alonso, then decided to get controversial by implying his old coach was racist. The Bills and Eagles are scheduled to meet in Week 14, and now it’s really must-watch TV. It should be noted McCoy wasn’t exactly a statistical monster in 2014, finishing 17th among running backs in standard scoring, and Buffalo backup Fred Jackson was actually more productive in point-per-reception formats on a per-game basis. ESPN Fantasy doesn’t rank McCoy as a first-round pick. He turns 27 this summer and there are concerns about his health and the team’s offensive line, but surely Ryan will feed him the ball plenty. Can McCoy return to top form?

Whose stock could fluctuate? The summer health of McCoy could certainly alter his positioning as a borderline top-10 running back. I’ve got him an aggressive ninth, but don’t expect a 1,500-yard rushing season or double-digit touchdowns. I see lots of volume, though. It’s hard to imagine Manuel, even if he looks great in the preseason, becoming a top-20 quarterback option for fantasy owners in drafts. However, the better he looks the better it is for second-year wide receiver Sammy Watkins, a unique talent who underwent hip surgery after his rookie campaign but figures to be ready for August reps. Yes, the Bills figure to run more than last season, but if Watkins slips too far out of the top 20 wide receivers on draft day, becomes a bargain. By the way, no matter how healthy free-agent acquisition Percy Harvin looks this summer, don’t buy in. Health is a skill, and he’s lacking it. We’re never going to see a 1,000-yard receiving season from Harvin.

 

[iowajerms]

MIAMI DOLPHINS

What’s changed? The Dolphins' very expensive addition of defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh made the big headlines, but the organization committed to quarterback Ryan Tannehill and gave him a young, electric wide receiver, which should make the offense a bit more formidable. Tannehill finished the 2014 campaign as fantasy’s No. 9 quarterback, one measly point behind division rival Tom Brady, though fantasy owners likely don’t know this and surely don’t expect a repeat. His weapons have been overhauled, with Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson and Charles Clay moving on, and DeVante Parker, Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron arriving. This should be interesting.

Who’s motivated? Stills showed glimpses of stardom during two seasons with the New Orleans Saints. In his rookie year, he led the league in yards per reception at 20.0, and he continued to stretch the field last season. Of course, going from handling passes from Drew Brees to Tannehill is a potentially big deal. With slot man Jarvis Landry and tight end Cameron handling the short stuff, Stills figures to post career bests in targets and receiving yards. Then again, first-rounder Parker remains in play as well, should he develop quickly.

Whose stock could fluctuate? While Tannehill’s value as a starting fantasy quarterback seems problematic at this point, with some simply refusing to believe, running back Lamar Miller could be the lone Dolphin chosen in the first 10 rounds of some fantasy drafts. The speedy Miller emerged in his third season as a reliable RB2 option despite not receiving 20 rushing attempts in any game, and appears in line for similar touches. Few will regard him as a top-10 running back on draft day, but he’s close. Of course, rookie Jay Ajayi from Boise State could look great this summer and foil that plan, too. Cameron also could push his way into top-10 consideration at tight end, where there are short of 10 sure things.

 

[iowajerms]

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

What’s changed? The defending Super Bowl champs never left the news cycle, thanks mainly to Deflategate, which cost respect, money, future draft picks and a month of Tom Brady games this season, pending appeals. In terms of roster adjustments, the organization was quiet, but haven’t we seen this before? It should matter that Darrelle Revis and others from the defense left, but the Patriots always find a way. Certainly the way the world views the organization wasn’t helped by this offseason, not that it really matters.

Who’s motivated? Um, name a Patriot who isn’t. Brady isn’t likely to take a September snap, and he’d seem to have a minor chip on his still-productive shoulder come October. Fill-in passer Jimmy Garoppolo has a month-long window to prove he can play, and potentially cash in the way former Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel once did when Brady was out. Coach Bill Belichick won’t be shy about running up scores, which is good for fantasy owners. LeGarrette Blount surely wants to prove he can be the regular running back; the last and only time he approached 1,000 rushing yards was as a Buccaneers rookie in 2010. There was a time last season when he was actually unemployed. And finally there’s Rob Gronkowski, perpetually motivated to have fun and thus make news. It’s a motivated team, folks.

Whose stock could fluctuate? Everyone’s could, really. The absence of Brady has predictably sent his draft-day stock plummeting, but don’t forget he wasn’t much of a factor for the first month of games last year as well, and still he mattered. He remains firmly in my top 10. Fears of the drop to Garoppolo will affect the value of Gronkowski and wide receivers Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell. A strong summer by Garoppolo would, in theory, assuage fears there, and keep Gronk in the overall top 10 for some. In addition, does anyone really think Blount gets 200 touches? Whoever replaces Shane Vereen as the pass-catching running back will see a relevant boost in draft status. The Patriots, for fantasy purposes, haven’t had so much potential stock movement in a summer in a while.

 

[iowajerms]

NEW YORK JETS

What’s changed? The Jets moved on from Rex Ryan, now coaching with a team that actually plays its home games in the state of New York, as Todd Bowles gets a coaching chance and should have a terrific defense to work with. The new general manager is Mike Maccagnan, and he put an instant stamp on the roster, adding cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, drafting lineman Leonard Williams and adding veterans to the offense that might be past their prime, but at least had one. Now the Jets just need something out of the quarterback position so they can score points and make this competitive division very interesting.

Who’s motivated? Certainly Revis won’t need to be reminded for the matchups with the New England Patriots, but for fantasy purposes, both running back Stevan Ridley and wide receiver Brandon Marshall step into potentially productive circumstances. Ridley, like Revis a former Patriot and likely feeling spurned, rushed for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2012 and had a pair of 100-yard efforts early last season before tearing a knee. He’s apparently healthy now, and certainly Chris Ivory, now 27, hasn’t established himself as an upper-echelon fantasy option yet and likely never will. Ivory hasn’t even reached 200 rushing attempts in a season. Ridley, as well as draft day acquisition Zac Stacy from the St. Louis Rams, should see chances. With Marshall, picked up on the cheap from the Chicago Bears, he comes off an injury-plagued season. And while the quarterback situation is far from ideal to get him back to 100 receptions, he’s a potential top-20 wide receiver, in theory.

Whose stock could fluctuate? Geno Smith has to be considered the leading candidate to start at quarterback, but he might have committed another turnover just while you’re reading this, and veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick is poised to step in. Fitzpatrick isn’t exactly Joe Montana, but he’s had periods of productivity and three seasons with 23 or more touchdown passes. His ascension to starter would bode well for Marshall’s draft day value and aid Eric Decker, who even with a messy Smith and Michael Vick at quarterback managed to barely miss the top-20 among wide receivers in PPR formats. You don’t really want a Jets quarterback in fantasy, but keep an eye on who gets the starter snaps at running back. It should be Ivory, though.

 

[iowajerms]

They have the AFC East, North, and South posted so far.

I will do AFC North some time tomorrow.