Drafting Kershaw first overall(theoretically)

[MilkSpiller22]

Nobody would ever say no to doing this...

But is it the RIGHT move to make??

Advanced Fantasy metrics say that Kershaw is the most valuable player in fantasy... More so than Trout... and I do agree with this... But even with that knowledge, I don't think I can or would pull the trigger...

I definitely would not in rotisserie...

But in H2H I might... But I think in H2H Points, I WOULD...

I think here is the difference between the 3 most popular styles of fantasy...

Rotisserie demands for Balance... and the problem with going Kershaw first is that to have a good rotation you must get other pitchers besides JUST Kershaw... Nobody is good enough that you can draft them alone and then wait... if you wait too long then you wont have a good rotation, and you WASTED your Kershaw pick... While also, by picking Kershaw with the first pick, you are playing from behind in MOST offensive categories from the start... So by picking Kershaw first, you are in the I NEED PLAYERS TO WORK OUT mode more than if you took Trout or any other offensive player...

H2H Categories- this one is more interesting, because H2H categories is where Punting is actually a strong strategy... But just like in Rotisserie you are not going to win a week with bad pitching next to a stud... and H2H categories is all about extreme strengths... balance is a weakness, if I am to draft Kershaw with the first overall, I am hoping to get another elite pitcher in the second and/or third round... and unlike in rotisserie, you CAN afford going with a different strategy... Things don't need to go a certain way for your success... at least not as much... But the problem is, the 2 start pitchers and the owners who will start multiple closers... if you cant win all 5 pitching categories, then you need to be able to consistently win an offensive category... it is certainly a risk...

H2H points- here is where I would definitely draft Kershaw over an offensive player(Trout)... Depending on the scoring of course... But what is great about points leagues is that whoever scores the most points is the best... simple as that... so you can build your team however you want and specific stats just don't matter... so you can have Kershaw, AND NOT NEED to have a strong rotation...

 

[redseat]

Can't go wrong with Drafting him # 1 that's for sure. You are right though, it depends upon the categories and points etc if he goes # 1 but it also goes to preference.. I'll admit I did a draft and took Trout # 1.. Kershaw went 5th

 

[redseat]

the better question could also be... Kershaw, Trout or Goldy... Who would be the better # 1 pick... Maybe even throw in Bryant into the equation

 

[TKOSpikes]

The only reason I wouldn't would be because of his back. If he looks good in March, with no reports of anything but goodness, I would not hesitate.

With his back, Mad Max is certainly capable of repeating as the #1 pitcher

 

[TKOSpikes]

These last few seasons, I've really changed my look at drafts. Of course you need balance of arms and bats, but the difference between the best arms and the good arms is much greater, imo, than the best bats and the good bats.

If you go into your draft, and take 3 pitchers to start, you will have a major advantage. Great pitchers have bad weeks on much fewer occasions than great hitters. If you get three aces in the "top 20" of consensus SP rankings, you will have more weeks of secure points/stats.

But what? Then you are done in the hitting cats! ... I disagree. We are talking about 2-3 hitters out of a usual 12-13 player starting lineup. (if you don't use MI/CI, I hate your league) There are a TON of hitters that get "hot", have "good matchups next week", are playing in Colorado and Arizona, or in Toronto and Baltimore, etc.

In points leagues, you can find hitters to get points as your aces dominate.

In cat leagues, having Billy Hamilton doesn't automatically award you the SB cat every week. Having Anthony Rizzo and Corey Seager will not give you an advantage every week. Scherzer, Bum and Price would give you said advantage most weeks.

In roto, yes... it is the only one that I would have to think hard about this strategy... but I would still end up at the same conclusion. Every pitcher outside the top 20-30 are heavily weighed on matchups. Guessing when these matchups are impactful, (while fun) can be devastating. But yes, those streaky hitters aren't so much of a problem in roto, so finding the "hot" guy or even the many "out of nowhere" may seem like more of a task than guessing on those matchups.



That said, and I can't stress this enough... there is no wrong way to draft your team. Your 14th pick is likely to be just as important as your first. Baseball is long. The pendulum really lets loose in the game. Patience is a key and I usually have none... so maybe that's why I lean the way I do. I find the steadiest contributors are the consistent "20+ QS pitchers". And while yes, there are many arms that make impacts sparingly through the season that come late in drafts or waivers, the impacts made by hitters in those same scenarios last longer through the season, i.e. Jackie Bradley > Vince Velazquez.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

These last few seasons, I've really changed my look at drafts. Of course you need balance of arms and bats, but the difference between the best arms and the good arms is much greater, imo, than the best bats and the good bats.

If you go into your draft, and take 3 pitchers to start, you will have a major advantage. Great pitchers have bad weeks on much fewer occasions than great hitters. If you get three aces in the "top 20" of consensus SP rankings, you will have more weeks of secure points/stats.

But what? Then you are done in the hitting cats! ... I disagree. We are talking about 2-3 hitters out of a usual 12-13 player starting lineup. (if you don't use MI/CI, I hate your league) There are a TON of hitters that get "hot", have "good matchups next week", are playing in Colorado and Arizona, or in Toronto and Baltimore, etc.

In points leagues, you can find hitters to get points as your aces dominate.

In cat leagues, having Billy Hamilton doesn't automatically award you the SB cat every week. Having Anthony Rizzo and Corey Seager will not give you an advantage every week. Scherzer, Bum and Price would give you said advantage most weeks.

In roto, yes... it is the only one that I would have to think hard about this strategy... but I would still end up at the same conclusion. Every pitcher outside the top 20-30 are heavily weighed on matchups. Guessing when these matchups are impactful, (while fun) can be devastating. But yes, those streaky hitters aren't so much of a problem in roto, so finding the "hot" guy or even the many "out of nowhere" may seem like more of a task than guessing on those matchups.



That said, and I can't stress this enough... there is no wrong way to draft your team. Your 14th pick is likely to be just as important as your first. Baseball is long. The pendulum really lets loose in the game. Patience is a key and I usually have none... so maybe that's why I lean the way I do. I find the steadiest contributors are the consistent "20+ QS pitchers". And while yes, there are many arms that make impacts sparingly through the season that come late in drafts or waivers, the impacts made by hitters in those same scenarios last longer through the season, i.e. Jackie Bradley > Vince Velazquez.

I agree that there is no WRONG way to draft... BUT an unorthodox strategy is harder to compensate for after it fails... ALL strategies will work if implemented correctly(with luck as well as well research)...