Don't pay (or Overpay) for Speed.

[rokketmn]

I originally posted this on yesterday's thread this morning, but thought it might be a nice topic for the day (or morning).

This is in response to Brahmsiam's man-crush on Ellsbury, and all things fast.

Do you understand what I am saying? I am not saying that speed isn't important. I am saying that you don't pay for it (or overpay) because it doesn't age well. When a speed player slows down, then what does he have going for him? Not much. Look at Ichiro the last few years.

Very few players retain their speed, or at least the ability to steal bases at a high percentage as they get into their mid-thirties. Sure, there are exceptions like Rickey Henderson, but he was a freak of nature. It is just not the norm.

Here are most of the top players on the all-time SB list:

When Tim Raines went from 32 to 33 years old, he went from 45 SB's to 21. From there he never had more than 13. This was at 33!

Still...Rickey Henderson stole 54 bases in his age 34 season (pretty remarkable). He was then slowed by injuries, and even though he still stole a lot of bases, his SB % went way down in his later years.

Lou Brock was only successful on 75% on all of his SB attempts. That is not a great percentage.

Vince Coleman stole 50 base and was caught only 8 times in his age 32 season. He stole 42 in his age 33 season with only a 72% success rate, and from there, he only stole 54 bases over his last 3 seasons.

Joe Morgan's SB's dropped dramatically after his age 33 season.

Kenny's Lofton's steals dropped after his age 31 season. He went from 54 to 25 and was pretty much a 20-30 SB guy the rest of his career.

So the question you have to ask is how much are you willing to pay for that diminished speed? If you say $10mm, then that means you are effectively paying a guy like Ellsbury over $30mm a season in his remaining prime seasons from 30-33.

You see the Yankees are not getting Jacoby Ellsbury from age 24 to age 29. They are getting Ellsbury from age 30 to age 36. AND...they are paying $153mm for it. The Sox paid $20mm for his seasons in Boston.

Now tell me how you see Ellsbury's contract?

 

[navamind]

And unlike Ellsbury, Raines and Henderson were very good at getting on base. Raines had a career .385 OBP and was in the top 10 seven times. Rickey had a .401 OBP and was in the top 10 sixteen times.

 

[molsaniceman]

Ells will be missed but thats how these things work The contract is bad but it makes the yanks a better team for next 3 or 4 years and if anyone can absorb a contract the yankees can

Hopefully sox get someone to replace him cause JBJ doesnt look ready yet

 

[Floffman]

Much less of this talk would be going on if he didn't come to the Yankees.

I look at it as its not my money so I don't give a shit. Its not my luxury tax so I don't give a shit.

Do I think they over paid, sure, but it makes them a better team now. They can deal with the future when it gets here.

To tell you the truth I didn't like the McCann deal either. Would have rather seen AJ here on a 1 year deal with an option. Then after each season check in on Sanchez's progress.

Thats just me.

Or maybe take Hamilton or Pujossssss's contract and try to get Trout (I know pipe dream).

 

[Brahmsian]

I originally posted this on yesterday's thread this morning, but thought it might be a nice topic for the day (or morning).

This is in response to Brahmsiam's man-crush on Ellsbury, and all things fast.

Do you understand what I am saying? I am not saying that speed isn't important. I am saying that you don't pay for it (or overpay) because it doesn't age well. When a speed player slows down, then what does he have going for him? Not much. Look at Ichiro the last few years.

Very few players retain their speed, or at least the ability to steal bases at a high percentage as they get into their mid-thirties. Sure, there are exceptions like Rickey Henderson, but he was a freak of nature. It is just not the norm.

Here are most of the top players on the all-time SB list:

When Tim Raines went from 32 to 33 years old, he went from 45 SB's to 21. From there he never had more than 13. This was at 33!

Still...Rickey Henderson stole 54 bases in his age 34 season (pretty remarkable). He was then slowed by injuries, and even though he still stole a lot of bases, his SB % went way down in his later years.

Lou Brock was only successful on 75% on all of his SB attempts. That is not a great percentage.

Vince Coleman stole 50 base and was caught only 8 times in his age 32 season. He stole 42 in his age 33 season with only a 72% success rate, and from there, he only stole 54 bases over his last 3 seasons.

Joe Morgan's SB's dropped dramatically after his age 33 season.

Kenny's Lofton's steals dropped after his age 31 season. He went from 54 to 25 and was pretty much a 20-30 SB guy the rest of his career.

So the question you have to ask is how much are you willing to pay for that diminished speed? If you say $10mm, then that means you are effectively paying a guy like Ellsbury over $30mm a season in his remaining prime seasons from 30-33.

You see the Yankees are not getting Jacoby Ellsbury from age 24 to age 29. They are getting Ellsbury from age 30 to age 36. AND...they are paying $153mm for it. The Sox paid $20mm for his seasons in Boston.

Now tell me how you see Ellsbury's contract?

"Man-crush" isn't the phrase I'd use, and ny username ends with "n", not "m."

Since I am hardly a great typist I'll assume the latter was just an oversight on your part.

The length of the contract might be excessive, but other than that it's a good deal for the Sinstripes, IMO.

 

[BigDDude]

Much less of this talk would be going on if he didn't come to the Yankees.

I look at it as its not my money so I don't give a shit. Its not my luxury tax so I don't give a shit.

Do I think they over paid, sure, but it makes them a better team now. They can deal with the future when it gets here.

To tell you the truth I didn't like the McCann deal either. Would have rather seen AJ here on a 1 year deal with an option. Then after each season check in on Sanchez's progress.

Thats just me.

Or maybe take Hamilton or Pujossssss's contract and try to get Trout (I know pipe dream).

Well,......the Yankees made this their issue, by coming out so early and often by saying they WILL get down to $ 189 mil this year.


So, were they lying, or, are we just supposed to accept that they can draw as many lines in the sand as they want, as long as it serves their purpose?

Is it too much to expect for a team or Org to keep their word, to do what they say, and say what they mean? If so, that is pretty sad...

 

[BigDDude]

 

[BigDDude]

Something to warm the blood.

GLOBAL WARMING MY FROZEN ASS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[BigDDude]

Well,..... why the hell not? It's a natural.

Jerod Mayo is just the latest athlete to make a foray into the food world. (Via PLBSports.com)

It was bound to happen eventually, right?

New England Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo is getting into the mayonnaise business, releasing a line of “gourmet” mayo-based condiments.
The “All-Pro” mayonnaise comes in three fitting flavors: Kickin’ Buffalo, Bruisin’ Bacon, Curshin’ Chipotle.
Mayo joins a roster of other athletes trying to make the leap from the locker room to the kitchen: Justin Verlander (“Fastball Flakes”); Rob Gronkowski (“Gronk Flakes”); Pascal Dupuis (“Dupuis Dijon”); Miguel Cabrera (“Miggy’s Salsa Triple Crown Pack”); Peyton Hillis (“Redzone Salsa”); and more.
Mayo plans to donate a portion of his proceeds from his “All-Pro Mayo” to Boston Medical Center.

 

[BigDDude]

You might want to allow for a few more minutes at lunch time over this -

Fast-food workers and labor organizers are set to turn out in support of higher wages in cities across the country Thursday.

Organizers say walkouts are planned in 100 cities, with rallies set for another 100 cities. But it's not clear what the actual turnout will be and whether they'll shut down or even disrupt restaurant operations.

 

[Floffman]

Well,......the Yankees made this their issue, by coming out so early and often by saying they WILL get down to $ 189 mil this year.


So, were they lying, or, are we just supposed to accept that they can draw as many lines in the sand as they want, as long as it serves their purpose?

Is it too much to expect for a team or Org to keep their word, to do what they say, and say what they mean? If so, that is pretty sad...

Team and Org lie all the time, don't even get started there. We are not in on this player. We are going to do this...and never do it.

If you are trying to find ethics or morality in this you are looking in the wrong place.

 

[redseat]

In this day and age every player in every sport is considered overpaid for the most part. Ellsbury was going to get overpaid regardless of where he went

 

[BigDDude]

Team and Org lie all the time, don't even get started there. We are not in on this player. We are going to do this...and never do it.

If you are trying to find ethics or morality in this you are looking in the wrong place.

I expect of others only what I expect of myself.......

And, I am told I have unrealistic expectations,..., every day.

 

[BigDDude]

In this day and age every player in every sport is considered overpaid for the most part. Ellsbury was going to get overpaid regardless of where he went

A base and bedrock truth if their ever was one.....

At least as of 1976.

 

[BigDDude]

Jacoby Ellsbury, you just made the list -

Babe Ruth, Wade Boggs, Mark Bellhorn Among Top 10 Red Sox Players Who Became Yankees | | NESN.com

 

[Floffman]

I expect of others only what I expect of myself.......

And, I am told I have unrealistic expectations,..., every day.

I have those expectation of friends and family.

Everyone else I lose hope quickly

 

[BigDDude]

That Mike Trout kid is pretty good.......

MLB Notebook: Mike Trout's assault on record books | MLB.com: News

 

[rokketmn]

And unlike Ellsbury, Raines and Henderson were very good at getting on base. Raines had a career .385 OBP and was in the top 10 seven times. Rickey had a .401 OBP and was in the top 10 sixteen times.

Abso Friggin Lutely!!

This is why I think the Sox will be okay with Jackie Bradley Jr. The kid already has shown fine on base ability. In the minors, his BB:K ratio was excellent. He will have some growing pains, but in the end, I think he will produce an OBP around .370.

 

[Floffman]

That Mike Trout kid is pretty good.......

MLB Notebook: Mike Trout's assault on record books | MLB.com: News

His older brother is helping my girlfriend and I move her out of her apartment this weekend.

 

[rokketmn]

Well,......the Yankees made this their issue, by coming out so early and often by saying they WILL get down to $ 189 mil this year.


So, were they lying, or, are we just supposed to accept that they can draw as many lines in the sand as they want, as long as it serves their purpose?

Is it too much to expect for a team or Org to keep their word, to do what they say, and say what they mean? If so, that is pretty sad...

My favorite Yankee "line in the sand" was when they told A-Rod that if he opted out of the final years of his original Texas contract with the Yankees after 2007, that they would not re-sign him. As we all know, not only did they re-sign him, but they gave him an even more ridiculous contract that they are crying about now. The cherry on top was the $6mm bonuses for when A-Rod moves up on the all-time HR list.