Does anyone think that Darvish will be < CJ

[jta4437]

I saw that and I don't put much stock in it. The kid is 25. Do you really think his peak season will be his first two seasons? I'm calling bullshit. That doesn't sound like a pitcher Nolan and company would spend 100 million for.

ZiPs tends to be pretty conservative especially for guys it has no ML data on, the key the WAR though, aside from the wins, I think the numbers are pretty spot on

I was just posting that as a pretty respectable projection, ERA could be lower and K's higher but pretty solid nonetheless

I would tend to think he peaks towards the end and not the beginning

 

[jta4437]

With a WAR being about equal 2.5 million

Even at this conservative 22.4 WAR over 5 years puts Darvish in line for about a 5 year 56 million dollar contract

 

[romeo212000]

ZiPs tends to be pretty conservative especially for guys it has no ML data on, the key the WAR though, aside from the wins, I think the numbers are pretty spot on

I was just posting that as a pretty respectable projection, ERA could be lower and K's higher but pretty solid nonetheless

I would tend to think he peaks towards the end and not the beginning

I think you've got a pretty good idea. I think his first season will probably look about like that projects with maybe an additional win. I think you'll see his wins and strikeouts increase and his era, walks, and whip decrease steadily the next few seasons until he peaks at around 30 maybe. Frankly I think it's very plausible he could be classified as a true ace once he adjusts and settles in.

 

[romeo212000]

With a WAR being about equal 2.5 million

Even at this conservative 22.4 WAR over 5 years puts Darvish in line for about a 5 year 56 million dollar contract

That's about what I've figured it's going to take anyways.

 

[jta4437]

I could see a 12-7 mid to high 3 ERA a reasonable 1st year, with a drop in ERA and increase in wins in each of the next 2 seasons, this guy most likely will not be an ace his first year, so its important to keep expectations modest

I'm thinking 5/60 to 5-75 being the going rate, preferrably 5-60

 

[romeo212000]

I could see a 12-7 mid to high 3 ERA a reasonable 1st year, with a drop in ERA and increase in wins in each of the next 2 seasons, this guy most likely will not be an ace his first year, so its important to keep expectations modest

I'm thinking 5/60 to 5-75 being the going rate, preferrably 5-60

I think you're about right, but I do expect 12-13 wins for that kind of money his first year.

 

[jta4437]

I think you're about right, but I do expect 12-13 wins for that kind of money his first year.

12-13 wins is a pretty modest 1st season, but the key will be his peripheral stats, not wins

with this offense you could have a +5 ERA and still win 13 games if given the right conditions

How many games did Holland win this past season just b/c the offense scored 8+ runs (before he seemed to start figuring things out)?

Or a couple seasons ago when matt harrison went 9-3 with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP

 

[romeo212000]

12-13 wins is a pretty modest 1st season, but the key will be his peripheral stats, not wins

with this offense you could have a +5 ERA and still win 13 games if given the right conditions

How many games did Holland win this past season just b/c the offense scored 8+ runs (before he seemed to start figuring things out)?

Or a couple seasons ago when matt harrison went 9-3 with a 5+ ERA and a 1.5+ WHIP

Good points. Sometimes I forget how little of an indicator of good pitching that is with all the talk about replacing CJs wins. I think Darvish may start out strong early as he is an unknown and then struggle a bit midway through the season and then click again at the end. I think we can reasonably expect to see an era in the mid 3's for starters. And I would be fine with that.

 

[jta4437]

Good points. Sometimes I forget how little of an indicator of good pitching that is with all the talk about replacing CJs wins. I think Darvish may start out strong early as he is an unknown and then struggle a bit midway through the season and then click again at the end. I think we can reasonably expect to see an era in the mid 3's for starters. And I would be fine with that.

Also its about if we won the game even if there was no decision

The Rangers were 21-13 in games pitched by CJ

16-7 record by CJ

5-6 in games not recieving a decision,

21 wins thats quite a bit to replace

 

[kennyt12]

This is a "let the records show" thread...I know 99% of this board didn't agree with letting CJ walk but seem okay now that we won the bidding war. Simple question, do you think Darvish will be a better pitcher than CJ Wilson? Or will he be a bust and we should've signed CJ and this will prove to be a huge mistake? Give simple answers, no politic'ing your way around it.

I'll go first...I'm confident that Darvish will not only prove to be a much better pitcher, he will probably win some Cy's while he's at it. Let the records show.

I am 100% on the Yu Darvish bandwagon. I believe he is going to be a top 5 pitcher over the next 5-10 years. He may not dominate at the beginning of the year but I think he will be by October!

 

[guitarmy21b]

I just don't see Yu going from being a guy with a 1.44 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 1.44BB/9, 10.7K/9 type stats to being a mid-rotation type guy with an ERA in the mid 3's. Maybe this season while he figures out which pitches work best for him, but those numbers are absurd no matter what league they're from. The fact that he walks people so little with such a large arsenal of pitches just shows the command he has, and the break on some of his pitches is just filthy. I could see him coming in and making hitters look completely off balance and making most of them look stupid.

 

[jta4437]

I certainly wouldn't say its absurd, I wouldn't necessarily agree but absurd it is not

Its a conservative projection thats actually quite good if you look at the sum of its parts

This conservative projection still says he's in line for a 5/56 contract, not too shabby for an "absurd" projection of a guy that NO ONE has seen face ML hitters

 

[romeo212000]

I just don't see Yu going from being a guy with a 1.44 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 1.44BB/9, 10.7K/9 type stats to being a mid-rotation type guy with an ERA in the mid 3's. Maybe this season while he figures out which pitches work best for him, but those numbers are absurd no matter what league they're from. The fact that he walks people so little with such a large arsenal of pitches just shows the command he has, and the break on some of his pitches is just filthy. I could see him coming in and making hitters look completely off balance and making most of them look stupid.

There will definitely be an adjustment period, but I don't think he'll take that long to figure it out. Like you said those numbers are eye popping no matter what league he's in. His numbers put dice-k's Japanese numbers to shame. It's not like he's been pitching in high school with those numbers. The Japanese league is just a tick below MLB and better than AAA.

 

[guitarmy21b]

I was referring to his numbers from Japan. Those stats are ridiculous.

 

[jta4437]

I was referring to his numbers from Japan. Those stats are ridiculous.

I misread, sorry

 

[jta4437]

There will definitely be an adjustment period, but I don't think he'll take that long to figure it out. Like you said those numbers are eye popping no matter what league he's in. His numbers put dice-k's Japanese numbers to shame. It's not like he's been pitching in high school with those numbers. The Japanese league is just a tick below MLB and better than AAA.

Talent level wise probably on par with AAA or a tick below BUT experience level wise these are older players that know how to play the game, many are smart, savvy veterans

So better than AAA and less than MLs, but in a different way

The fact that he's dominated veteran hitters over a long period of time certainly works well in his favor

 

[guitarmy21b]

It's worth noting that he got 3 of the 4 ML hitters out he faced in the 09 WBC(struck out Adam Dunn, David Wright, got Jeter out, gave up a hit to Rollins). Is that very significant, no, but those who say he's NEVER faced a ML hitter in his life are technically wrong.

 

[jta4437]

Forgot about the WBC, but lets be fair striking out Adam Dunn isn't saying much

 

[guitarmy21b]

Forgot about the WBC, but lets be fair striking out Adam Dunn isn't saying much

I know, honestly it wouldn't matter how those 4 AB's went either way, just pointing out that he has pitched to big leaguers before.

 

[jta4437]

For what its worth, his 1st season, my prediction:

W: 14
L: 6
IP: 187
K: 178
BB: 51
ERA: 3.64
WHIP: 1.28
HR: 16