Distribute probability for 2015 title.

[TDs3nOut]

Thinking about which teams have a legitimate shot to win the title this year, I decided to construct my own subjective probability distribution:

Team P(title)
Spurs .3
Cavs .3
Warriors .3
Grizz .05
Rest of league .05

Does that look about right?

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

I would give the Cavs a massive .500 probability.

There is not a single team in the East that even remotely leads me to believe they wont be in the Finals.

Washington/Toronto are pretenders.
Chicago is injured and loses to Lebron even when healthy in playoffs.
Atlanta is having a great season. And I picked them to win before the season started...but...not enough there in terms of talent

You cannot win if you dont get to the Finals.

 

[TDs3nOut]

I would give the Cavs a massive .500 probability.

There is not a single team in the East that even remotely leads me to believe they wont be in the Finals.

Washington/Toronto are pretenders.
Chicago is injured and loses to Lebron even when healthy in playoffs.
Atlanta is having a great season. And I picked them to win before the season started...but...not enough there in terms of talent

You cannot win if you dont get to the Finals.

No denying that and I also agree that Cavs are clear favorites to win the East.

 

[gordontrue]

Thinking about which teams have a legitimate shot to win the title this year, I decided to construct my own subjective probability distribution:

Team P(title)
Spurs .3
Cavs .3
Warriors .3
Grizz .05
Rest of league .05

Does that look about right?

Honestly, yes.

But then I have to ask myself... why are the Hawks so easily dismissed. I can't come up with a better reason than "they just don't feel legit"... which seems like a pretty lame one.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Honestly, yes.

But then I have to ask myself... why are the Hawks so easily dismissed. I can't come up with a better reason than "they just don't feel legit"... which seems like a pretty lame one.

Might have something to do with them not really having star players, though Milsap and Horford are obviously both really good. I might be too dismissive of them, but I'd be very surprised if they beat Cleveland in a series.

 

[Hambombs]

I think people are dismissing Atlanta way to fast

 

[Hambombs]

Honestly, yes.

But then I have to ask myself... why are the Hawks so easily dismissed. I can't come up with a better reason than "they just don't feel legit"... which seems like a pretty lame one.

I don't know why people think this,

 

[shabazz916]

the title is the spurs too lose if their healthy... if its the cavs vs warriors.. lebron goes crazy .. and they win

 

[CelticPride89]

I don't know why people think this,

Well personally I would be very surprised to see the hawks beat cleveland in a 7 game series. It does seem like an unfair assumption based on their regular season success, but the playoffs are an entirely different animal. Not enough star powertpower to compete with the cavs. Their like a poor mans version of the spurs.

 

[CelticPride89]

As far as the original question of probability goes I would be willing to bet quite a lot on cleveland. That being said I would be thrilled to see anyone BUT the cavs win it all.