Direction to go this year?

[Brees#1]

I have done two mocks at ESPN and it appears that with how the rankings are that it is becoming harder. Bishop Sankey, who I thought could be a late steal, is going 4th-5th rounds. I do not like Lacy or Forte ranked as high as they are, they are not McCoy or AP. Also, Leveon Bell is too high as well. He was not always a 15-20 point back. I feel MJD has to be the steal this year because DMC I believe his struggles stem from being on a losing team. He just doesnt want to play with a chip against teams that don't let them win. Its just something I'm sensing with him. MJD probably can do better. I also like Ridley for where he is. But RB after five rounds gets thin and who is the "Gordon" in late rounds this year?

So in the two mocks I did I went this in the first among the big starters(picked 7th)
1.Marshall(just wasnt thinking here in a real draft this would be Megatron)
2.Rodgers
3.Allen
4.V.Davis
5.Ridley
6.SF d/st
7.Cooks
8.Wayne
9.Gostchkowski
10.McFadden
I handcuffed Wayne with Nicks as my wr 3, I ended up getting McFadden to back up Ridley because I waited too late to draft RBs. I drafted Davis as my TE and later got Green as the backup(he should be starting soon). Davis was ranked just right, I felt Graham was too high and Gronk a little too high as well because he was gone when I picked here. Thomas also seems like injury prone. Because of my rb situation I jumped on SF and Gostchkowski to try to get the max value at other positions. In addition I drafted Cooks later as well because I know he's gonna be involved in the saints plays.

In mock 2 I picked 6th
1.Lacy
2.Brees
3.Bell
4.Cruz
5.V.Davis
6.MJD
7.SF d/st
8.Boldin
9.Cooks
10.Rams d/st
Here yes I drafted two big defenses as I intend to maybe play the matchups this year. In a real draft Cooks will not be there at 9th round so I may plan to jump for him. This one I went with a rb heavy approach and handcuffed Bell with Blount and Boldin with Johnson. Now with 11th pick I got Prater and in a real draft he and Gotschkowski will go 8th or 9th. I think this mock was better than the first mock but I am considering jumping for Cooks and Sankey when I really do draft in a real league and filling my first three picks with a RB, WR, QB. This means that I may be considering punting value at the TE spot as long as I can get two top defenses and a top kicker.

 

[broncosmitty]

Rodgers and Brees were second rounders? I like Lacy a lot. Could see him being the third or fourth RB come normal draft time. (Drafting rookies is risky buisness IMO. Especially at receiver. Randy Moss is a rare find.)

 

[TREFF]

Hers my opinion..
Your 2nd team is stronger than you're first, even though you don't back up and play match ups with the #2 ranked defense. If you spend a higher pick on a strong defense that's who you play. . Every week, otherwise don't waste the pick.
As for that first team, Never really a great idea to "handcuff" WR's, and DMC is a decent enough choice as a late RB, but considering him as an insurance policy isn't very appealing as he's likely to be hurt before you'll ever need him. Given the time share, added to the general overall decline in the both of them, neither MJD or DMC should be depended on as anything more than bye week fillers. You jumped WAY WAY to early on Gostkowski as well. And most importantly, Marshall isn't worth a 1st round pick, especially in what I'm assuming is the standard 10 team ESPN style leagues.

In both drafts you jumped on a defense way too early. . And like you mentioned you were concerned about your RB situation, so use those mid round picks on RB depth take a shot on a least half of a time share, or a rookie, handcuff a starter anything but hoping a defense will make up for the deficiency.
As for Cooks, unless he lives the league in fire during training camp I do expect him to be around the 8-10 range, so don't go overboard there, besides, if there's one bad thing about the Saints offense, it's that no one, outside of Brees and Graham, can be consistently counted on as an every week starter, and is been that way for years.
Sankey..meh, he's the one rookie RB I'd feel ok about reaching for, but I wouldn't want him as anything higher than a RB3/flex type, don't go nuts there.
I feel your strategy of 2 strong defenses and a great kicker is tragically flawed and doomed for middle of the pack or less unless you really hit the lottery in the late rounds.
Good luck

 

[TREFF]

Rodgers and Brees were second rounders

that's where they both went in our suicide league. .back end of the second even.

 

[averagejoe]

I don't mean to poke holes in your strategy, but I think you're fantasy philosophy is limiting the depth on your team. (Maybe I'm just tired, so I apologize in advance.)

I do not like Lacy or Forte ranked as high as they are, they are not McCoy or AP. Also, Leveon Bell is too high as well.

If anything, this year's crop of QB and WR has never been deeper. I think you're short-changing yourself if you pass up a #1 starting RB in lieu of a QB or WR. Maybe some RB are over-hyped. Maybe some shouldn't demand a high draft pick. But since most leagues still start 2 RB, you should solidify that position.

In a real draft Cooks will not be there at 9th round so I may plan to jump for him... In addition I drafted Cooks later as well because I know he's gonna be involved in the saints plays.

I agree with Treff regarding the rookie Cooks. He could very well be involved in the Saints' plays. But unless his name is Graham, the rest of the Saints have to share the ball with about 9 other guys. ADP has Cooks going in the 9th round. No reason to reach earlier IMO.

6.SF d/st
7.SF d/st

Way too high. ADP has the 49ers going in the 12th round. Even if you want to jump the gun early, you can target them in the 9th or 10th round (which is still too early). Point is you're passing up some quality players in the 6th or 7th round for a D/ST. Plus the 49ers have the 4th toughest schedule. They play 7 of the top 10 scoring teams from 2013 which is basically half of a fantasy season.

 

[obxyankeefan]

that's where they both went in our suicide league. .back end of the second even.

In the B suicide league I had the tenth pick and Brees, Rodgers, and Peyton were all gone.

 

[SteelersPride]

Whatever strategy you have is gone by the time you make your pick unless you have pick or 2 in which case, your strategy is gone by round 2, you let the draft dictate what you have to do..........you cant say i have to pick this here pre draft and then do it.........if you do, you will fail........sometimes i take a RB higher than i want because theres a big run on them and i wont get any rb's later, or top wr's are going like hot cakes and if i wait im gonna get scraps, then ok grab something and get your backs later.......just always look for value........

 

[Brees#1]

Rodgers and Brees were second rounders? I like Lacy a lot. Could see him being the third or fourth RB come normal draft time. (Drafting rookies is risky buisness IMO. Especially at receiver. Randy Moss is a rare find.)

They are ranked late second. Where I was picking I had to get them. Come to think of it Brees and Rodgers doesnt matter because I have Rodgers in my LM league at NFL and plan to keep him over Bell. I am not doing without an elite qb this time. So because of the keeper thing I may not be able to have Lacy anyways. Foster, however, could be unkept, and if I do the draft before preseason then he may not move up to people. Preseason has actually affected drafts and its something I don't like but I also don't like drafting someone and then they end up getting hurt in preseason.

 

[broncosmitty]

that's where they both went in our suicide league. .back end of the second even.

Well I'll be.... Just assumed AR, DB and PM were givens in the first. Usually happy to wait for a QB but Id have a hard time passing on any of the three at the top of the second.

 

[Brees#1]

I don't mean to poke holes in your strategy, but I think you're fantasy philosophy is limiting the depth on your team. (Maybe I'm just tired, so I apologize in advance.)

If anything, this year's crop of QB and WR has never been deeper. I think you're short-changing yourself if you pass up a #1 starting RB in lieu of a QB or WR. Maybe some RB are over-hyped. Maybe some shouldn't demand a high draft pick. But since most leagues still start 2 RB, you should solidify that position.

I agree with Treff regarding the rookie Cooks. He could very well be involved in the Saints' plays. But unless his name is Graham, the rest of the Saints have to share the ball with about 9 other guys. ADP has Cooks going in the 9th round. No reason to reach earlier IMO.

Way too high. ADP has the 49ers going in the 12th round. Even if you want to jump the gun early, you can target them in the 9th or 10th round (which is still too early). Point is you're passing up some quality players in the 6th or 7th round for a D/ST. Plus the 49ers have the 4th toughest schedule. They play 7 of the top 10 scoring teams from 2013 which is basically half of a fantasy season.

Every year in my league top defensess have gone before round 9. This is a league with dedicated people though so they always want to go with BPA. I have already made it clear that that is my plan this year. Last year was hard to stream on defense. I lucked out every week finding a team that could score a defensive td. Jumping is popular in my league. A lot of people do it and some prefer to draft ones with bigger names. I haven't made playoffs last two years(got screwed last year by angry duped owner) and don't want to mess up in my draft again.

 

[Brees#1]

In a nutshell I want to draft a team where 5 or six players can give me 140 on a great week.

 

[SteelersPride]

s0 does everyone

 

[tlance]

Hers my opinion..
Your 2nd team is stronger than you're first, even though you don't back up and play match ups with the #2 ranked defense. If you spend a higher pick on a strong defense that's who you play. . Every week, otherwise don't waste the pick.
As for that first team, Never really a great idea to "handcuff" WR's, and DMC is a decent enough choice as a late RB, but considering him as an insurance policy isn't very appealing as he's likely to be hurt before you'll ever need him. Given the time share, added to the general overall decline in the both of them, neither MJD or DMC should be depended on as anything more than bye week fillers. You jumped WAY WAY to early on Gostkowski as well. And most importantly, Marshall isn't worth a 1st round pick, especially in what I'm assuming is the standard 10 team ESPN style leagues.

In both drafts you jumped on a defense way too early. . And like you mentioned you were concerned about your RB situation, so use those mid round picks on RB depth take a shot on a least half of a time share, or a rookie, handcuff a starter anything but hoping a defense will make up for the deficiency.
As for Cooks, unless he lives the league in fire during training camp I do expect him to be around the 8-10 range, so don't go overboard there, besides, if there's one bad thing about the Saints offense, it's that no one, outside of Brees and Graham, can be consistently counted on as an every week starter, and is been that way for years.
Sankey..meh, he's the one rookie RB I'd feel ok about reaching for, but I wouldn't want him as anything higher than a RB3/flex type, don't go nuts there.
I feel your strategy of 2 strong defenses and a great kicker is tragically flawed and doomed for middle of the pack or less unless you really hit the lottery in the late rounds.
Good luck

My best advice is to take every word Treff is saying to heart.

Consistent success in fantasy football is not about having a high powered starter at every position, it is all about finding value in the draft and accumulating depth at RB/WR.

Team 1 has terrible RBs and team 2 is very weak at WR. Personally, I do not think it is a bad idea to reach for an elite QB in round 2 (not round 1 though), but it is really hard to assemble a winning team if you reach for a top QB, top TE, top DST and top K. You simply sacrifice too much at the most important positions (WR and RB).

Draft your QB if you must and invest in either a defense or a TE, but wait until after round 10 to lock up those other spots so you can have some quality RB and WR depth.

 

[leftypower]

I think you've been given some very good advise from Joe, Treff and Tlance - take it to heart. I'll offer just one more bit when it comes to 'handcuffs'. If you draft a clear cut starter at WR and/or RB - don't do it unless you have very deep benches. The drop off in talent is just too great, plus you are losing a roster spot to a guy you hope never sees the field. Remember backups are backups for a reason and that is most likely lack of talent or injury prone. Generally they can be picked up on waivers if you must. You are far better off getting one side of a committee - at least you know they'll play.
On the contrary, it may be worthwhile to draft both guys in clear cut committee situations if you can get it done in the mid to late rounds.
Also, from personal experience, if you jump early for a top DST (and I mean prior to rd 9 or 10) there is no value added in jumping to grab another top DST. Over thinking matchups will likely lead to disappointment. Happened to me last year when I abandoned the Panthers (playing Saints at the dome) - cost me a championship.

 

[TKOSpikes]

There is absolutely no such thing as a WR handcuff. And at the risk of sounding redundant, it's fine to have a plan, but only follow it if everything falls into your lap. And I have made the mistake of drafting a dst too early and it totally destroys your team.

 

[averagejoe]

I have already made it clear that that is my plan this year.

I applaud the determination. Seems a little counter-productive to ask for thoughts if you're so adamant about your decisions. Let me just throw this out there for you:

I was in 6 leagues last year. Since much is being discussed about the QB and the D/ST, these are the winning QB and D/ST from the six leagues:

League 1) Stafford (6th round pick), no D/ST since it's an IDP league.
League 2) Peyton (3rd round pick), Patriots (11th round).
League 3) Foles (undrafted), Panthers (undrafted)
League 4) Wilson (auction league), Rams (undrafted)
League 5) Cutler (trade), Lions (undrafted)
League 6) Foles (undrafted), Rams (undrafted)

As you can see, the championship teams really didn't have high picks to speak of. Even Peyton Manning was a somewhat lowly 3rd round pick.

I'd also like to point out that with most leagues, the team you END with may be quite different from the team you START with, be it trades or free agency. On average (unofficially), most championship caliber teams only retain 50-60% of their originally-drafted players (including the bench).

 

[TREFF]

Well I'll be.... Just assumed AR, DB and PM were givens in the first. Usually happy to wait for a QB but Id have a hard time passing on any of the three at the top of the second.

I think the only given 1st round QB in a standard scoring league, is Peyton (and even there I'd be wary, no one had back to back years like that and expectations are ridiculously high). But, I wouldn't laugh at anyone who reached on either Brees or Rodgers towards the end of one. Luck, however, is a different story

 

[TREFF]

Every year in my league top defensess have gone before round 9. This is a league with dedicated people though so they always want to go with BPA. I have already made it clear that that is my plan this year. Last year was hard to stream on defense. I lucked out every week finding a team that could score a defensive td. Jumping is popular in my league. A lot of people do it and some prefer to draft ones with bigger names. I haven't made playoffs last two years(got screwed last year by angry duped owner) and don't want to mess up in my draft again.

So the best way to combat the other owners is not to Draft the same way, or to attempt to beat them at their own game, but rather go the opposite way. If they are drafting the top defenses WAY to early, let Em! Use your picks to build RB/WR depth, possibly strong starters or at minimum good options to play match ups with and then grab a Cincy, ARZ, Balt, Pitt, or even Houston defense much later. And DON'T stream defenses unless you really miss out on a strong one. You don't bench Rodgers, Brees, AP, Charles, McCoy, Lynch..ect.. When they have a tough match up do you? Defense is the same way. If you use anything higher than the final 3-4 picks on a D, they'd better be good enough to start every week, or you've wasted the pick.
Also you've said "jumping" or what we usually call "reaching" is popular in your league, so, again, the best advice is to not join the crowd but to do the opposite. Grab the more solid guys as your opponents are reaching for their next big homerun. It's probably okay to do it for one guy that you just have to have, but you do it 3-4 times and suddenly your paper thin and have nothing to pick from in the late rounds to insure yourself with.
Lastly, if this a competitive, keeper league, you're not going to come away from an ESPN mock with any real useful info anyways

 

[tlance]

IMO, the biggest mistake that a fantasy owner can make during a draft is locking on on specific players or positions to take at certain times. It is okay to have a couple guys you are targeting in each round, but keep an open mind because there might be someone better available.

Plans are fine, as long as you are willing and able to go off script when values present themselves.

 

[leftypower]

IMO, the biggest mistake that a fantasy owner can make during a draft is locking on on specific players or positions to take at certain times. It is okay to have a couple guys you are targeting in each round, but keep an open mind because there might be someone better available.

Plans are fine, as long as you are willing and able to go off script when values present themselves.

Best advise yet. .....