Detroit Tigers Ongoing 2016 Thread

[Iffster]

Vegas Insider (using PECOTA and Fangraphs as its basis) rated Detroit 16th and out of the playoffs. Third in AL Central behind KC and Cleveland.

 

[Howie115]

Vegas Insider (using PECOTA and Fangraphs as its basis) rated Detroit 16th and out of the playoffs. Third in AL Central behind KC and Cleveland.

Vegas is going to give more weight to the 2015 last-place season than I think is realistic, because they know a lot of bettors will do the same.

Hey, I want to be optimistic about 2016, but from outside Detroit, I'm sure the consensus is that the Tigers have too many key players (Verlander, Cabrera, V-mart, F-Rod) who are potential injury risks.

 

[MiamiVice]

Vegas Insider (using PECOTA and Fangraphs as its basis) rated Detroit 16th and out of the playoffs. Third in AL Central behind KC and Cleveland.

Who cares about preseason projections... How many years did the Tigers come into the year as WS favorites.. its meaningless crap. The only reason you are posting it is to troll... if the Tigers were regarded more highly you wouldn't be bringing it up.

 

[MiamiVice]

Vegas is going to give more weight to the 2015 last-place season than I think is realistic, because they know a lot of bettors will do the same.

Hey, I want to be optimistic about 2016, but from outside Detroit, I'm sure the consensus is that the Tigers have too many key players (Verlander, Cabrera, V-mart, F-Rod) who are potential injury risks.

Most people don't understand that Vegas doesn't give a shit about anything but making money in regards to future's bets and over and under numbers.... and if they have to put the over under low to get people to bet where they want... that is where they put the over under... Vegas does NOT use projections... they have their own odds makers that do it... and each casino can be different.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Who cares about preseason projections

you do or there wouldn't be dozens upon dozens of posts made by you referrencing every damn Tigers player and what you project their 2016 stats will be...

FYI, when you do that prior to the regular season it becomes a preseason projection

carry on

you contradict yourself more than anyone

 

[MiamiVice]

 

[Iffster]

Opinions: Is this a make or break season for Castellanos as Detroit's 3B?

After 2 lackluster offensive seasons attached to two awful defensive years as a 3B....is this year Nick C's last shot before the Tigers look elsewhere? IMO, if Castellanos' bat gets hot in 2016, Detroit will continue to ignore his ineptness as a fielder. If he puts up similar offensive stats to 2014-5....they need to look for a new answer.

 

[broncosmitty]

Opinions: Is this a make or break season for Castellanos as Detroit's 3B?

After 2 lackluster offensive seasons attached to two awful defensive years as a 3B....is this year Nick C's last shot before the Tigers look elsewhere? IMO, if Castellanos' bat gets hot in 2016, Detroit will continue to ignore his ineptness as a fielder. If he puts up similar offensive stats to 2014-5....they need to look for a new answer.

As a third baseman or a player in general?

If he isn't going to play third, hard to imagine he stays a Tiger. Left, right and first are spoken for until atleast 2018.

 

[Howie115]

Opinions: Is this a make or break season for Castellanos as Detroit's 3B?

After 2 lackluster offensive seasons attached to two awful defensive years as a 3B....is this year Nick C's last shot before the Tigers look elsewhere? IMO, if Castellanos' bat gets hot in 2016, Detroit will continue to ignore his ineptness as a fielder. If he puts up similar offensive stats to 2014-5....they need to look for a new answer.

I'm not sure a player who will still be only 24 when the season starts is due for a "make or break" season. By that logic, the Royals should have parted ways with Moustakas at age 24/25, and look at the numbers he put up last year at age 26 (.817 OPS, 120 OPS+). Castellanos was basically learning at the major league level what a lot of players are still learning in the minors.

And I guess your opinion depends if you think Nick's second half last year (.478 SLG/.800 OPS, versus .372/.659 in the first half) is a sign of him figuring things out or just a fluke. The eyeball test showed me he laid off more outside pitches in the second half and turned on more inside corner pitches. Fangraphs says his second half extrapolates as .275/.323/.481 with 22 home runs in 2016, which any Tiger fan should be thrilled with.

While I do see Nick as a below-average defender at 3B, clearly one of the worst defenders on an otherwise pretty good defensive team, I don't think the "inept" or "butcher" labels are accurate.

 

[Iffster]

Can't agree....I don't see Castellanos improving much as a fielder. IF....he hits like he did the second half of the season, then his poor fielding will be overlooked. That was my point. I just can't see Detroit (fans) being patient if his end of 2016 offensive total are similar to 2014-5. (Unless the spirit of Brooks Robinson inhabits Nick's body)

 

[Howie115]

Nick's defensive metrics...

2014 Errors = 15
2014 Fielding Pct. = .950 (vs. League 3B average of .956)
2014 Range Factor/9 = 2.10 (vs. League 3B RF/9 of 2.56)

2015 Errors = 12
2015 Fielding Pct. = .966 (vs. League 3B average of .958)
2015 RF/9 = 2.61 (vs. League 3B RF/9 of 2.64)

Total Zone Rating 2014 = -28
Defensive Runs Saved 2014 = -30

Total Zone Rating 2015 = -9
Defensive Runs Saved 2015 = -9

I know defensive metrics can lie, but Nick improved from 2014 to 2015 in all important categories. He was darn close to league averages for third basemen in 2015. DRS in 2015 was still 9 below the league average, but that was a major improvement from the minus-30 in 2014. Keep in mind, he had just returned to 3B in 2014 after attempts to make him an outfielder in the minors in 2013.

Thus my conclusion: Still below average, but not "awful" or "inept".

 

[Howie115]

I just can't see Detroit (fans) being patient if his end of 2016 offensive total are similar to 2014-5. (Unless the spirit of Brooks Robinson inhabits Nick's body)

I'll agree, I'd be disappointed this year if Castellanos plods along in the .250's again and continues to strike out 27% of the time.

 

[MiamiVice]

 

[Iffster]

This is nice. I can give my views on the Tigers and all I get is a 'Dislike' from Vice and maybe a silly picture. LOL

Kinsler
Upton
Cabrera
VMart
JDMartinez
Castellanos
McCann
Maybin
Iglesias

Other lineup possibilities?

 

[Howie115]

Kinsler
Upton
Cabrera
VMart
JDMartinez
Castellanos
McCann
Maybin
Iglesias

Other lineup possibilities?

I suspect there will be times when Gose, Maybin or Iglesias bats up in the order and Upton bats sixth, should they want some protection for JD. But with Upton's OBP, I think the 2-spot will be his most frequent home.

 

[MiamiVice]

I suspect there will be times when Gose, Maybin or Iglesias bats up in the order and Upton bats sixth, should they want some protection for JD. But with Upton's OBP, I think the 2-spot will be his most frequent home.

I don't see Upton batting anywhere other than #2 unless there are injuries that push him down the order.

 

[MiamiVice]

Miguel Cabrera might open the season at third base for the Tigers

 

[Lions=TeHsUcKs]

No one talking about Sanchez's possible injuries?

 

[MiamiVice]

No one talking about Sanchez's possible injuries?

I was on the AL Central thread... Not surprising... I think expecting him to throw more than 120 innings is going to be asking a lot... Hopefully Matt Boyd steps up.. as his minor league numbers seem to suggest he is a lot better than what he showed last year.

 

[Howie115]

No one talking about Sanchez's possible injuries?

Originally an "undisclosed issue" with Sanchez, they soon identified it. The report says "doesn't appear to be serious", but Tiger fans are going to be concerned with any aches and pains with this guy, given past history.

********

Anibal Sanchez is experiencing swelling in his right triceps, Jon Morosi reports.

This doesn't appear to be anything serious, but manager Brad Ausmus has announced that the Detroit Tigers will hold the 31-year-old out of all activity until Monday. It is noteworthy that Sanchez has suffered an arm-related injury three seasons in a row, which could explain the Tigers conservative approach.