Conference Championship Predictions

[belcherboy]

If you're bold enough, give us your exact score predictions.

 

[eaglesnut]

Baltimore 30
Chiefs 24

Lions 27
Niners 21

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Contractually obligated to never bet against Mahomes. That is all.

 

[Clayton]

I'll probably wait and see how Derrick Nnadi, Willie Gay, Mike Edwards and Joe Thuney are doing. Really hard to use the KC/Buf game to project how KC will look against Balt when we were down 4(?) starters and they were down even more than that.

Of the final four teams, the Ravens have the #1 overall defense, KC #2 overall, San Fran #3 overall. Detroit #23. This is where the Lions awesome run ends.

 

[Tainthappening]

Nothing original for me... going with both #1s at home... do think they are the best 2 teams in football right now.

• Really like Baltimore´s defense and think Lamar may be over the "playoff hurdle". Think Harbaugh is good coach.
• Chief´s have Mahomes and Reid, that right there gives them a chance... but their passing offense is not quite the same. But I really do like Pacheco and how hard he runs.
• #1 vs #2 scoring defenses... but I think both score 24+ pts in this game unless conditions poor.
• Baltimore has Tucker and at home, I give them the edge.

• SF defense #3 scoring defense (just behind Balt/KC), Lions defense bottom 10 scoring.
• Think SF may have had a little rust and question if Purdy plays well in poor conditions... rust may be gone and appears should be good weather for now.
• Lions got pummeled by Ravens defense... but Lions beat some other good Ds: Chiefs (without Jones or Kelce), Bucs x2 (one time there) and nearly the Cowboys on road.
• Really like Shanahan as a coach and his play calling in general.
• Think SF will get 30+ points vs Lions defense... not so sure Lions get more than 24 points vs SF defense.
• If Samuel is out or not healthy.. that could be huge... but my assumption is he will play and effective.
• In my heart would like to see Lions win and bring home Lombardi... but I think this game is a bridge too far....

 

[belcherboy]

I'm going to call the games by what I want to see happen. I'm not betting on it though.

Detroit 34
SF 31

Detroit is able to get to Purdy and shake him up early. They get a nice sized early lead, and SF storms back to tie it up late in the 4th. Detroit drives down with a few minutes left and kicks the game winning FG with little to no time left on the clock.

KC 34
Baltimore 24

Lamar struggles to get going early and is forced to throw more than usual. They are playing catch up all game, and they cannot quite close the gap. They score a late TD to make it interesting, but KC burns out most of the final 5 minutes and kicks a game sealing FG.

Now boys...bet on the opposite of what I predicted and you'll clean up!

 

[Wamu]

Well this was completely classless.

Bills fans pelt Patrick Mahomes with snowballs after another playoff loss to the Chiefs

 

[Wamu]

I'll be rooting for the Chiefs & the Lions.

 

[Wamu]

I'm going to call the games by what I want to see happen. I'm not betting on it though.

Detroit 34
SF 31

Detroit is able to get to Purdy and shake him up early. They get a nice sized early lead, and SF storms back to tie it up late in the 4th. Detroit drives down with a few minutes left and kicks the game winning FG with little to no time left on the clock.

KC 34
Baltimore 24

Lamar struggles to get going early and is forced to throw more than usual. They are playing catch up all game, and they cannot quite close the gap. They score a late TD to make it interesting, but KC burns out most of the final 5 minutes and kicks a game sealing FG.

Now boys...bet on the opposite of what I predicted and you'll clean up! <------------------

You sound like me. I'm so bad at picking games it took three tries to get my fake cash total to where it is. Even when I wanted to lose a game I fucked it up multiple times.

 

[psaboy]

Well this was completely classless.

Bills fans pelt Patrick Mahomes with snowballs after another playoff loss to the Chiefs

Heard they turned the hot water off too in the visitors locker rooms. Stay classy Buffalo !!

 

[belcherboy]

You sound like me. I'm so bad at picking games

I once had a teacher in high school tell me that when I have multiple choice or true/false questions to pick one that I think is correct, and then change it to the opposite. It actually worked quite well for me over the years.

 

[Wamu]

Heard they turned the hot water off too in the visitors locker rooms. Stay classy Buffalo !!

Damn.

 

[ducky]

I've got SF & Baltimore.

SF v Det - Detroit's weak defense will finally catch up with them.

Bal v KC - KC's weak pass catches will finally catch up with them.

Basically at the point in the season where you cant or at least shouldnt have any glaring weaknesses. And two teams have glaring weaknesses and the other 2 teams dont.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I think Baltimore and Detroit are going to take it.

Josh Allen was running all over KCs defense. I know KC blew another TD with the fumble, but still. After watching Josh Allen running against the Chiefs, I think Lamar is going to have a field day. The Bills' D is no slouch and Mahomes did his thing, but Baltimore's D is better. Both defenses (Balti/KC) don't do well against the run but the Ravens' rush attack is flat out better based on Y/A (the only metric you should really care about). The Chiefs need to score early and QUICK and make the Ravens play from behind. I actually think the coin toss (Chiefs receive to start) will be a big factor.

As for the Lions/49ers... I really gotta wait for an injury report but I'll take the Lions.

The Lions have a top 5 D in yards allowed per carry in the NFL. That should help nullify McCaffrey in the run department. If Samuel is out as well and Purdy is forced to throw, I think that will play big time into Detroit's favor.. if they can unlike Green Bay not drop easy interceptions. The 49ers defense is extremely tough, but the Lions have enough weapons on O to keep them honest. That said, if the Lions have 2-3 OL banged up or out, it could be a very low scoring game.

All said, TLDR - Lions and Ravens SBOWL IMO.

 

[Clayton]

I've got SF & Baltimore.

SF v Det - Detroit's weak defense will finally catch up with them.

Bal v KC - KC's weak pass catches will finally catch up with them.

Basically at the point in the season where you cant or at least shouldnt have any glaring weaknesses. And two teams have glaring weaknesses and the other 2 teams dont.

I will say that if either KC or Det wins, it'll probably involve them starting out hot and making SF and Bal play from behind. Technically SF and certainly Balt dont have many real weaknesses but you'd definitely rather make them try to win with their QB needing to make plays with their arm and not having to deal with the run game.

It is fair to wonder if Purdy is actually a weakness at this point

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I will say that if either KC or Det wins, it'll probably involve them starting out hot and making SF and Bal play from behind. Technically SF and certainly Balt dont have many real weaknesses but you'd definitely rather make them try to win with their QB needing to make plays with their arm and not having to deal with the run game.

It is fair to wonder if Purdy is actually a weakness at this point

If you read my post (right before yours, post #14) I completely agree. The Chiefs need to get the ball on opening kickoff and score a TD... force Balti to throw and play from behind. Baltimore's rushing attack will punish KC too much. It's like when the Huskies deferred against Michigan. I was thinking, "WHAT THE ABSOLUTE FUCK ARE YOU DORKS DOING?" Same thing here... KC gets out to an early lead and I think they can force some plays from the Ravens. If Ravens start out with the ball and get a TD... IMO goodnight. The D (better than Buffalo) will lock down and Lamar and the backfield will just have a field day (KC was not a good rush per attempt YPC defense).

 

[Clayton]

If you read my post (right before yours, post #14) I completely agree. The Chiefs need to get the ball on opening kickoff and score a TD... force Balti to throw and play from behind. Baltimore's rushing attack will punish KC too much. It's like when the Huskies deferred against Michigan. I was thinking, "WHAT THE ABSOLUTE FUCK ARE YOU DORKS DOING?" Same thing here... KC gets out to an early lead and I think they can force some plays from the Ravens. If Ravens start out with the ball and get a TD... IMO goodnight. The D (better than Buffalo) will lock down and Lamar and the backfield will just have a field day (KC was not a good rush per attempt YPC defense).

After the Niners/KC Super Bowl, you've seen an emphasis on Chiefs team building to improve the LB and S positions. The problem the Chiefs have with the run is that Nnadi is their only run-stuffing DT and he is basically just a guy and he missed the Bills game. Chenal and Bolton are great run stuffers but dont have a ton of range and Lamar is the type of guy that can be tricky for them. Bolton as a swiss army knife is really useful for the Chiefs but Spags sometimes gets a bit too cute and he'll have to get in coverage against faster players. Tranquil and Gay are really important because of this.

I think the Chiefs could have a good run defense with Nnadi and Gay are in there to plug the middle and cover Likely. Philosophically speaking, though, the Chiefs...kinda let teams run instead of giving up big pass plays. Its why Chase called out the Chiefs secondary. Individually they arent asked to do a ton because they put numbers in the secondary. Do the Chiefs change strategy against the Ravens? I think they have to.

The scary part for the Chiefs is that the Ravens basically shut down the Texans offense and they had one of the top pass offenses in the league. Can anyone score on them?

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Smart money says it's the Niners vs the Ravens in the SB. They proved they were the best teams in their respective conferences, and each club is more balanced than its opponent this week.

Then again, no one ever accused me of being smart.

 

[jarntt]

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

After the Niners/KC Super Bowl, you've seen an emphasis on Chiefs team building to improve the LB and S positions. The problem the Chiefs have with the run is that Nnadi is their only run-stuffing DT and he is basically just a guy and he missed the Bills game. Chenal and Bolton are great run stuffers but dont have a ton of range and Lamar is the type of guy that can be tricky for them. Bolton as a swiss army knife is really useful for the Chiefs but Spags sometimes gets a bit too cute and he'll have to get in coverage against faster players. Tranquil and Gay are really important because of this.

I think the Chiefs could have a good run defense with Nnadi and Gay are in there to plug the middle and cover Likely. Philosophically speaking, though, the Chiefs...kinda let teams run instead of giving up big pass plays. Its why Chase called out the Chiefs secondary. Individually they arent asked to do a ton because they put numbers in the secondary. Do the Chiefs change strategy against the Ravens? I think they have to.

The scary part for the Chiefs is that the Ravens basically shut down the Texans offense and they had one of the top pass offenses in the league. Can anyone score on them?

Good write up Clayton. Thanks for the insight.

Going to be an interesting AFC/NFC Championship coming up.. The ol' saying goes "Defense wins Championships".. should be interesting.