Concerns you have about Off & Def

[SoCalWizFan]

I am using stats to make sense of a position and how much angst we should have about not having a great punt returner. I used stats to back up the statements I have made. You don't need a game changer to return punts. You also don't need to put your valuable position players in the most vulnerable positions on a part of the game that is truly less important.

I am sure that most of you remember the time where they did use their star player in that capacity last season against the Cowboys. There was no injury, but it was a disaster. He did redeem himself later, but I don't believe that it was forgotten.

 

[skinsdad62]

I am using stats to make sense of a position and how much angst we should have about not having a great punt returner. I used stats to back up the statements I have made. You don't need a game changer to return punts. You also don't need to put your valuable position players in the most vulnerable positions on a part of the game that is truly less important.

my post didnt come out like i wanted . your stats back your claim very well . the game changer thing needs to happen anywhere on our team offense , defense special teams . a reliable smart returner is all we need

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Ok...I showed you the statistical difference between the top guy in the NFL, Amendola at 12 per return and Crowder at almost 6.

I will add more. If you take away the 82 harder of Amendola, he is down to 8.8 per return. Only 3 yards better than Crowder.

You can do this with every returner in the NFL and that is why I showed you how rare big returns are today. I am showing you these big exciting returns are a rarity.

Hester played in a different era. That day and age is gone. The rules prevent KR difference makers...and punters are much better today because it is an actual profession these days. League minimum is over 500k and it pays to practice today. Directional kicking, back spin, and player strength at the punter position has killed the return game.

Why would you omit Amandola's 82 yarder? Thast's like taking away all of AP's long runs when you evaluate his rushing stats. Amandola averaged 12 YPR. Crowder by comparison averaged 5.3. Jamison Crowder NFL Football Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com


If you don't think 6.7 yards per return isn't significant ask yourself how many teams would keep a punter who was averaging 6.7 yards per punt lower than the other guy he is competing with in camp. 6.7 yards is a huge number per punt therefore it's a huge number in the return game as well. Field position in this game is really important and teams are always trying to get an edge.

Are big TD returns rare? Sure but just like a Ryan Kerrigan pick 6, which are even more rare, they can change a game and nobody thought Kerrigan's plays were insignificant. So when you look at the average per return on field position, the occasional 30 yarder which is essentially like turning that incompletion on 3rd and 9 into a turnover and throw in the occasional big, game changing play that a top return guy can deliver and it's clear that a good return man can make a difference.


I get what you are saying and I'm not claiming it's like a hole at left tackle or virtually every other position on the field. A PR's impact is not as big. But it's obviously a hole, we have heen handicapped at this one position every game we have played and it's been going on for decades. It's time we fix it..

 

[gkekoa]

Why would you omit Amandola's 82 yarder? Thast's like taking away all of AP's long runs when you evaluate his rushing stats. Amandola averaged 12 YPR. Crowder by comparison averaged 5.3. Jamison Crowder NFL Football Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com


If you don't think 6.7 yards per return isn't significant ask yourself how many teams would keep a punter who was averaging 6.7 yards per punt lower than the other guy he is competing with in camp. 6.7 yards is a huge number per punt therefore it's a huge number in the return game as well. Field position in this game is really important and teams are always trying to get an edge.

Are big TD returns rare? Sure but just like a Ryan Kerrigan pick 6, which are even more rare, they can change a game and nobody thought Kerrigan's plays were insignificant. So when you look at the average per return on field position, the occasional 30 yarder which is essentially like turning that incompletion on 3rd and 9 into a turnover and throw in the occasional big, game changing play that a top return guy can deliver and it's clear that a good return man can make a difference.


I get what you are saying and I'm not claiming it's like a hole at left tackle or virtually every other position on the field. A PR's impact is not as big. But it's obviously a hole, we have heen handicapped at this one position every game we have played and it's been going on for decades. It's time we fix it..

You don't know much about statistics if you are asking why to omit his one long return. It is a statistical outlier. With such a small sample size it distorts the true image of an average.

There were 53 interceptions returned for a TD last season. Oops.

Fix it for us. Would a guy like D'Anthony Thomas be the answer who was third in PR average at 11.9 be the answer? Well that was 2014...in 2015, he was eighteen at 7.8. The difference is he lacked the huge statistical outlier...that is why you look at sample size and find outliers that distort the image.

Like I said, I would love to have better returns but I won't lose sleep over it. The return games are going away. Take a look at the average NFL PR over the last four or five years. You are talking like Amendola's 12 is huge. Well, in 2012, the league leader was over 18 and since then, the averages have gone down every year.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

You don't know much about statistics if you are asking why to omit his one long return. It is a statistical outlier. With such a small sample size it distorts the true image of an average.

There were 53 interceptions returned for a TD last season. Oops.

Fix it for us. Would a guy like D'Anthony Thomas be the answer who was third in PR average at 11.9 be the answer? Well that was 2014...in 2015, he was eighteen at 7.8. The difference is he lacked the huge statistical outlier...that is why you look at sample size and find outliers that distort the image.

Like I said, I would love to have better returns but I won't lose sleep over it. The return games are going away. Take a look at the average NFL PR over the last four or five years. You are talking like Amendola's 12 is huge. Well, in 2012, the league leader was over 18 and since then, the averages have gone down every year.

While not as important as other positions it has been a problem position for years.

We need to fix it

That's my position, why you feel the need to argue such an obvious fact is beyond me but that's just how you roll I guess.

 

[gkekoa]

While not as important as other positions it has been a problem position for years.

We need to fix it

That's my position, why you feel the need to argue such an obvious fact is beyond me but that's just how you roll I guess.

You believe people should not discuss your opinion with you? Or do you believe we should all just agree with your opinion?

I thought the purpose of these boards was to discuss the team and opinions. I agreed with you that we need to improve in the return game but you were having an aneurism over a menial pat of the game. I am explaining to you why you need to chill out about it. I am explaining how the return games in general are being phased out of football and backing it up with facts. I showed you how individuals can seem great one season and less impressive another by a sheer outlier in statistical analysis.

I have no idea what your issue is with people challenging your position.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

You believe people should not discuss your opinion with you? Or do you believe we should all just agree with your opinion?

I thought the purpose of these boards was to discuss the team and opinions. I agreed with you that we need to improve in the return game but you were having an aneurism over a menial pat of the game. I am explaining to you why you need to chill out about it. I am explaining how the return games in general are being phased out of football and backing it up with facts. I showed you how individuals can seem great one season and less impressive another by a sheer outlier in statistical analysis.

I have no idea what your issue is with people challenging your position.

Oh I have no problem with challenges, Hell I'm arguing here all the time. But my position really wasn't worth challenging. Fact is it's been a problem for years and it should be corrected. The team recognizes this which is why they keep switching players in hopes that they can finally find that guy. I'm making a big deal about it because it's been a problem for 15 damn years and that is a ridiculous amount of time to have the same problem year after year.

Another fact is 6.7 yards per play is not meaningless. Again look at how they evaluate punters, 3 YPK is huge and determines who keeps a job and who is sent packing. So obviously 6.7 yards per return is too. You are right, they are phasing out kickoff returns. But not punt returns and that's what I've been talking about. It's still a part of the game and for us it's been a part of the game that we have been losing virtually every week for a decade and a half and that needs to stop. That's all I'm saying and I have no idea why anyone would find fault in that position.

 

[gkekoa]

Oh I have no problem with challenges, Hell I'm arguing here all the time. But my position really wasn't worth challenging. Fact is it's been a problem for years and it should be corrected. The team recognizes this which is why they keep switching players in hopes that they can finally find that guy. I'm making a big deal about it because it's been a problem for 15 damn years and that is a ridiculous amount of time to have the same problem year after year.

Another fact is 6.7 yards per play is not meaningless. Again look at how they evaluate punters, 3 YPK is huge and determines who keeps a job and who is sent packing. So obviously 6.7 yards per return is too. You are right, they are phasing out kickoff returns. But not punt returns and that's what I've been talking about. It's still a part of the game and for us it's been a part of the game that we have been losing virtually every week for a decade and a half and that needs to stop. That's all I'm saying and I have no idea why anyone would find fault in that position.

I didn't challenge the idea we needed to improve the return game...I challenged your emphasis on it.

You continually dismiss several factors affecting the punting game as well. First look at our team. For years we threw away draft picks, which means less athleticism and hunger on STs. That is changing. We had Brandon Banks for three years. 2010 he averaged 11.3/return...I bet you would be happy about that; however, that is 6 yards less than Hester and was only good for ninth. In 2011, he was at 9.1 and I bet you would be happy with that. Problem is that was 21st in the league and a full 7 yards less than the leader.

Now the NFL in general. Punt returns are becoming less and less a part of the game because punters are getting better and teams are less likely to use their stars on STs. League leaders by season and NFL return TDs...

2015...12/r...13 TDs
2014...13...13
2013...15.6...13
2012...18.7...17
2011...16.2...20
2010...17.1...13
2002...16.8...22

Lastly, you still haven't got the idea of an outlier in a small sample size. One 80 yard return and Crowder would be up to nearly 8 yards/return. Big returns are more situational than player dependent.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

I understand stats and understand how one big return can distort them. I also understand how one Landry return cost us a game last year so you will never convince me that a big return, even if they are rare, aren't important. You also never acknowledged how 3-4 yards per punt is the difference between an NFL job and bagging groceries for a punter so obviously 3-4 yards per play is important for a returner too.

I have acknowledged your point that punt returner is way way down the list of importance. But can you not understand my frustration when I watch our team be on the short end of the stick at this one position virtually every game for 15 years? It's ridiculous that this problem has gone on this long and I'm done waiting.

 

[gkekoa]

I understand stats and understand how one big return can distort them. I also understand how one Landry return cost us a game last year so you will never convince me that a big return, even if they are rare, aren't important. You also never acknowledged how 3-4 yards per punt is the difference between an NFL job and bagging groceries for a punter so obviously 3-4 yards per play is important for a returner too.

I have acknowledged your point that punt returner is way way down the list of importance. But can you not understand my frustration when I watch our team be on the short end of the stick at this one position virtually every game for 15 years? It's ridiculous that this problem has gone on this long and I'm done waiting.

I didn't acknowledge it because it isn't relevant. Punters are far different from returners. Returners need to be able to actually play a position and contribute in today's game. I could make a dispute over it if I wanted. I mean Tress is four yards off the league lead...should we be looking for a replacement? Should we consider where the punts are coming from to handicap averages? Landing inside the 20 or 10? There is far more than average to consider.

As for a returner...3 or 4 yards is important...so is not muffing the kick.

Pretty sure you aren't done waiting.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

I didn't acknowledge it because it isn't relevant. Punters are far different from returners. Returners need to be able to actually play a position and contribute in today's game. I could make a dispute over it if I wanted. I mean Tress is four yards off the league lead...should we be looking for a replacement? Should we consider where the punts are coming from to handicap averages? Landing inside the 20 or 10? There is far more than average to consider.

As for a returner...3 or 4 yards is important...so is not muffing the kick.

Pretty sure you aren't done waiting.

Whatever dude, I'm out of steam on this one. I already explained why I feel this way, 15 years is long enough to wait to correct this problem. It just seems like you want to argue just to argue sometimes around here.