Composite Way-Too-Early Top 25

[CatsTopPac]

You have to remember, if all 3 leave, they will bring in some top freshmen and transfers. There's a lot of talented guys who will be in Eugene if all 3 leave (which is unlikely). Will they step back? Sure but they will still be in the top 4 in the PAC.

They might be, but they can't just be ranked based on the argument that they will get good transfers. We have to see who those transfers are to combine with the freshmen. And it matters because Oregon is losing so much.

This is why I don't pay attention to these too-early polls. Kids are still making up their minds to leave, coaches are still recruiting, and players are transferring. There is so much movement that there isn't much more than speculation going on. It's fun to follow it all through the summer, but definitely don't put too much into the April polls for next year.

 

[Duckboy33]

They might be, but they can't just be ranked based on the argument that they will get good transfers. We have to see who those transfers are to combine with the freshmen. And it matters because Oregon is losing so much.

This is why I don't pay attention to these too-early polls. Kids are still making up their minds to leave, coaches are still recruiting, and players are transferring. There is so much movement that there isn't much more than speculation going on. It's fun to follow it all through the summer, but definitely don't put too much into the April polls for next year.

I agree that these polls are of little value because of the roster turnover in college hoops. However, other programs are annually given the benefit of the doubt despite roster turnover

 

[Lions=TeHsUcKs]

Michigan could be a top 10 team or an NIT team depending on whether DJ and Wagner are gone.

 

[ericd7633]

With the season over, I saw everyone started coming out with their early top 25 for next season. The list is compiled from ESPN, CBS, SI, Sporting News, Fox Sports, NBC Sports and FanRag Sports. I basically took the list and compiled a composite top 25 using those outlets' top 25. The list is below:

Parenthesis indicates the number of first place votes.

1. Louisville(2)
2. Duke
3. North Carolina
4. Arizona(3)
t5. Kentucky(1)
t5. Kansas(1)
7. Michigan State
8. Villanova
9. Wichita State
10. Gonzaga
11. Florida
12. Minnesota
13. West Virginia
14. USC
15. Cincinnati
16. UCLA
17. Notre Dame
18. Miami
19. Saint Mary's
20. Northwestern
21. Butler
t22. Xavier
t22. Virginia
24. Alabama
25. Baylor

Other Receiving Votes: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Oregon, South Carolina, Michigan, SMU, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Creighton, BYU, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Purdue, TCU, Maryland, Nevada.

Thoughts?

USC should shoot way up this list. Along with Michigan State, who should now be considered a top 3 team IMO with Bridges coming back.

 

[redseat]

welp, now that that the team is jumping ship... # 2 is waaay too high for Duke

 

[trojanfan12]

They might be, but they can't just be ranked based on the argument that they will get good transfers. We have to see who those transfers are to combine with the freshmen. And it matters because Oregon is losing so much.

Don't we also have to see if the transfers are eligible immediately or not? For example, USC has a point guard transfer from Duke who was on the team last year, but ineligible to play until this coming season.

 

[trojanfan12]

USC at #14. When was the last time that happened? Maybe when Paul Westphal was there?

 

[CatsTopPac]

Don't we also have to see if the transfers are eligible immediately or not? For example, USC has a point guard transfer from Duke who was on the team last year, but ineligible to play until this coming season.

Yep, for sure. Pollsters count them as returning players, so they are looked at, but still not really sure how they'll work out.

There are just so many variables:

Transfers
--incoming players immediately eligible
--impact transitioning to program/system

Players declaring for the draft
--with agents
--without agents
----invited to combine
----not invited

Returning players
--transfers who waited a year and now eligible
--players transferring out
--grades
--injuries
--improvements from summer workouts/strength and conditioning (and maturity)

Recruits
--final push for recruits
--injuries
--transitioning to college (discipline, and how international players adjust)
----not signing LOI

Teams
--new coaches
--players asked to accept new/different roles
--cohesion


There are also other more marginal situations, like kids getting into trouble with the law, the NCAA, and the program, etc.

And all of that is before they put the jerseys (back) on. I keep an eye on things, especially when big things happen. But I can't get too worked up about much because there is just so much that happens between when the way-too-early polls come out, and midnight madness.

 

[Great Dayne]

They're are going to look completely different. Outside of the NCAA Tournament games, they were a fringe top 25 team this year, and they lose 4 starters off that team.

They have their best recruiting class ever coming in with three top 100 players and an NCAA POY and DPOY candidate returning in Ethan Happ with the coach of the year. They made the sweet 16 or better 4 years in a row so they'll be fine. Not being in the top 40 is blatant disrespect. They're the Rodney Dangerfield of the NCAA.

 

[ericd7633]

They have their best recruiting class ever coming in with three top 100 players and an NCAA POY and DPOY candidate returning in Ethan Happ with the coach of the year. They made the sweet 16 or better 4 years in a row so they'll be fine. Not being in the top 40 is blatant disrespect. They're the Rodney Dangerfield of the NCAA.

2 of those guys are outside the top 100 depending on which recruiting service you look at. But either way expecting fringe top 100 guys to come in and be significant contributions isn't really realistic, unless they happen to start, but that would be a bad thing IMO because they won't be ready. I think I would project them to make the tournament(double digit seed) but I can't see how they are a top 25 team.

 

[The Q]

USC at #14. When was the last time that happened? Maybe when Paul Westphal was there?

The gabe pruitt era?

 

[The Q]

With the season over, I saw everyone started coming out with their early top 25 for next season. The list is compiled from ESPN, CBS, SI, Sporting News, Fox Sports, NBC Sports and FanRag Sports. I basically took the list and compiled a composite top 25 using those outlets' top 25. The list is below:

Parenthesis indicates the number of first place votes.

1. Louisville(2)
2. Duke
3. North Carolina
4. Arizona(3)
t5. Kentucky(1)
t5. Kansas(1)
7. Michigan State
8. Villanova
9. Wichita State
10. Gonzaga
11. Florida
12. Minnesota
13. West Virginia
14. USC
15. Cincinnati
16. UCLA
17. Notre Dame
18. Miami
19. Saint Mary's
20. Northwestern
21. Butler
t22. Xavier
t22. Virginia
24. Alabama
25. Baylor

Other Receiving Votes: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Oregon, South Carolina, Michigan, SMU, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Creighton, BYU, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Purdue, TCU, Maryland, Nevada.

Thoughts?

If UConn gets Tremont Waters and Sid Wilson, do they even get a receiving vote? LOL

 

[ericd7633]

If UConn gets Tremont Waters and Sid Wilson, do they even get a receiving vote? LOL

lol, my guess would be no. As you know, it'll be a lot of unknown for Uconn next year, I think if they got those 2 guys they could get there by March.

 

[The Q]

lol, my guess would be no. As you know, it'll be a lot of unknown for Uconn next year, I think if they got those 2 guys they could get there by March.

Fair enough.

It's completely reasonable.

But damn, that guard play would amazing.

They really need to haul in that VCU grad transfer C that I haven't seen any word on.

Waters
Wilson
Hamdy

Cause their C list right now is C by committee. Although I'm hopeful that Diarra is going to be their version of Rhody's Hassan Martin.

 

[ericd7633]

Fair enough.

It's completely reasonable.

But damn, that guard play would amazing.

They really need to haul in that VCU grad transfer C that I haven't seen any word on.

Waters
Wilson
Hamdy

Cause their C list right now is C by committee. Although I'm hopeful that Diarra is going to be their version of Rhody's Hassan Martin.

The talent would be there, certainly, but I don't think lack of talent was the issue last year. I know Uconn was destroyed by injuries, but IMO, the record still should have been better. It may be a rough start with all the new pieces coming together, that's why I'm thinking by the end of the year they could be a tournament team(double digit seed IMO)

 

[The Q]

The talent would be there, certainly, but I don't think lack of talent was the issue last year. I know Uconn was destroyed by injuries, but IMO, the record still should have been better. It may be a rough start with all the new pieces coming together, that's why I'm thinking by the end of the year they could be a tournament team(double digit seed IMO)

I smell a bet here. LOL.

I'm feeling a single digit seed this year. Assuming everyone is healthy.

 

[ericd7633]

I smell a bet here. LOL.

I'm feeling a single digit seed this year. Assuming everyone is healthy.

I'll do a friendly bet(I seem to be doing that more as of late lol) And yes everyone needs to stay healthy or it's void. What do you say if a significant member of the team(starter or 6th man) misses 7(which equates to about 25% of the season) the bet is off. That seem fair?

 

[The Q]

I'll do a friendly bet(I seem to be doing that more as of late lol) And yes everyone needs to stay healthy or it's void. What do you say if a significant member of the team(starter or 6th man) misses 7(which equates to about 25% of the season) the bet is off. That seem fair?

Sounds fair to me.

 

[Smart]

2 of those guys are outside the top 100 depending on which recruiting service you look at. But either way expecting fringe top 100 guys to come in and be significant contributions isn't really realistic, unless they happen to start, but that would be a bad thing IMO because they won't be ready. I think I would project them to make the tournament(double digit seed) but I can't see how they are a top 25 team.

If we end up in the top 25, I'd be thrilled. Honestly, I just hope we don't lose our tourney streak. Happ's obviously an elite talent, but I can't think of Wisconsin team in my fandom lifetime (say, the last 20 years) whose #2 was as weak as this bunch. Trice will probably be our second best player next year and I don't think he even cracks the eight-man rotation on our Final Four teams.

 

[ericd7633]

If we end up in the top 25, I'd be thrilled. Honestly, I just hope we don't lose our tourney streak. Happ's obviously an elite talent, but I can't think of Wisconsin team in my fandom lifetime (say, the last 20 years) whose #2 was as weak as this bunch. Trice will probably be our second best player next year and I don't think he even cracks the eight-man rotation on our Final Four teams.

Yeah Happ is a hell of a player. 1st or 2nd team All-American candidate IMO. There's a way to put pieces around a player that good and still be a good team, but I think Wisconsin will be limited. Illakanen hasn't lived up to his high school ranking and guys like Trice and Iverson weren't highly recruited, so from that standpoint, there's a little lack of talent. This will be the first time in as long as I can remember where Wisconsin will have a roster full of inexperienced players.