Commanders News thread

[skinsdad62]

Quarterbacks​

Picking in the 2 to 4 range vs 5 to 7 might not make a world of difference for OTs, but quarterbacks are another matter. Given how highly QBs are valued in today’s league, it’s got to be critical to pick as early as possible to have a chance at one of the top-rated prospects, right? Let’s have a look at the last 10 drafts.

From 2014 to 2023, eight QBs were drafted from picks 2 through 4: C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Mitch Trubisky, Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles. If C.J. Stroud goes on to become a franchise QB, rather than being a flash in the pan like Trubisky or Wentz, that would bring the hit rate from this group up from 0 to 12.5%. It’s anyone’s guess what will become of Anthony Richardson, but if he comes good that brings it to 25%.

The QBs drafted from picks 5 through 7 during this period are: Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen. Three of the five (Tua, Herbert, Allen) are among the league’s best QBs. Daniel Jones played well enough to earn a long-term extension from the Giants. Darnold is the only true bust in this group. The hit rate for picking franchise QBs in this range is 80%.

 

[skinsdad62]

Trading Down​

While it hasn’t seemed to make a huge difference in recent drafts to pick in the top 4 vs the top 7 if the object is to stay put and pick an OT or QB, what if the goal is to trade back in the first round to acquire more draft picks?

AD
In the 10 drafts from 2014 through 2023, there have been 6 trades targeting picks in the range from 2 through 4 vs just three trades targeting picks from 5 through 7. So the chance of receiving trade offers worth taking would appear to be double if the Commanders can avoid beating the Cowboys.

As for trade values, four of six trades involving top-four picks (67%) netted the team trading down an additional first round pick as well as other draft picks (2023 Houston/Arizona trade for Edge Will Anderson; 2021 SF/Miami trade for Trey Lance; 2016 PHI/CLE trade for Carson Wentz; 2014 BUF/CLE trade for WR Sammy Watkins). In the largest of these trades, Miami moved back from pick #3 to #12 and gained San Francisco’s 2022 first and third round picks and 2023 first round pick. The 49ers used pick #3 to draft QB Trey Lance who is currently backing up Dak Prescott in Dallas.

In the two trades that did not net additional first round picks, the teams trading back moved no further than three places back, staying in the top six, and each gained three additional Day 2 picks in the process.

Of the three trades for picks 5 through 7, only one (33%) netted the team trading back an additional 1st round pick (2021 PHI/MIA trade for WR Jalen Waddle). The other two involved trades back from picks #6 or #7 to #12 and netted the team trading back either one (2023 AZ/DET trade for OT Paris Johnson) or two (2018 BUF/TB trade for QB Josh Allen) additional second round picks, with an extra fifth round pick as a deal sweetener in Arizona’s trade to pick Paris Johnson.

Such trades could be helpful to the new GM’s franchise building effort, but are not on a par with the blockbuster trades for top four picks which have netted additional first round picks plus multiple Day 2 picks.

 

[gkekoa]

Trading Down​

While it hasn’t seemed to make a huge difference in recent drafts to pick in the top 4 vs the top 7 if the object is to stay put and pick an OT or QB, what if the goal is to trade back in the first round to acquire more draft picks?

AD
In the 10 drafts from 2014 through 2023, there have been 6 trades targeting picks in the range from 2 through 4 vs just three trades targeting picks from 5 through 7. So the chance of receiving trade offers worth taking would appear to be double if the Commanders can avoid beating the Cowboys.

As for trade values, four of six trades involving top-four picks (67%) netted the team trading down an additional first round pick as well as other draft picks (2023 Houston/Arizona trade for Edge Will Anderson; 2021 SF/Miami trade for Trey Lance; 2016 PHI/CLE trade for Carson Wentz; 2014 BUF/CLE trade for WR Sammy Watkins). In the largest of these trades, Miami moved back from pick #3 to #12 and gained San Francisco’s 2022 first and third round picks and 2023 first round pick. The 49ers used pick #3 to draft QB Trey Lance who is currently backing up Dak Prescott in Dallas.

In the two trades that did not net additional first round picks, the teams trading back moved no further than three places back, staying in the top six, and each gained three additional Day 2 picks in the process.

Of the three trades for picks 5 through 7, only one (33%) netted the team trading back an additional 1st round pick (2021 PHI/MIA trade for WR Jalen Waddle). The other two involved trades back from picks #6 or #7 to #12 and netted the team trading back either one (2023 AZ/DET trade for OT Paris Johnson) or two (2018 BUF/TB trade for QB Josh Allen) additional second round picks, with an extra fifth round pick as a deal sweetener in Arizona’s trade to pick Paris Johnson.

Such trades could be helpful to the new GM’s franchise building effort, but are not on a par with the blockbuster trades for top four picks which have netted additional first round picks plus multiple Day 2 picks.

And this is why I like trading down and adding firsts the following season.

 

[skinsdad62]

 

[skinsdad62]

 

[redskinsfan1963]

jus another shit snyder move along with deion,archuletta,carrier and george

 

[skinsdad62]

Ok one of the 3 games we need to go our way happened . Now if the colts can win we will have 2.

We need 3 out of 5 games to go our way to secure number 2 overall

 

[skinsdad62]

The Washington Commanders will have a lot of cap space this offseason — but not as much as many people think

salary cap and the CBA...sweet!

www.hogshaven.com

We will be fine

 

[redskinsfan1963]

i don,t think bring the dc from the ravens on board as hc would be smart based on the way pittsburg schooled them yesterday.

 

[skinsdad62]

 

[redskinsfan1963]

sc just announced riveria has been fired

 

[kbso83432]

 

[kbso83432]

 

[kbso83432]

 

[duke1861]

View attachment 350513

Didn't see that coming...

Maybe like a expensive search committee.

 

[dcrising]

My take is that they are being very thoughtful and thorough on this Front office revamp. They aren't going to jump at the first shiny toy in the room.

 

[kbso83432]

 

[kbso83432]

 

[kbso83432]

 

[redskinsfan1963]

i,m glad riveria beat cancer his time in dc,and i wish him nothing bu the best here on