Colin Kaepernicks PFF Deep Throws

[MHSL82]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/20/adot-adjusted-completion-percentage/

The way this is done is highly specific and masks other QB flaws. For example, they are removing throw aways, batted balls, or throws disrupted by a QB hit---all three of those can be very much on the QB. If a QB is poor at making reads and then throws it away; if he holds on too long and gets hit because of that; or a bad throw at the line that results in a batted ball, etc.

But it's good to see Kaepernick in the Top Ten in all or nearly all of these lists. People talk about his running ability, but his passing is top ten. I like how he noted that due to the difficulty of his passes, he still exceeded the expected percentage by a lot.

Tried to post the article but the graphs don't come out, just look at the link. And no, I am not posting it for any comment or claim re: the QB that used to be here. It explained why his numbers were where they were - conservative plays, though he did exceed those expected percentages.

 

[deep9er]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/20/adot-adjusted-completion-percentage/

The way this is done is highly specific and masks other QB flaws. For example, they are removing throw aways, batted balls, or throws disrupted by a QB hit---all three of those can be very much on the QB. If a QB is poor at making reads and then throws it away; if he holds on too long and gets hit because of that; or a bad throw at the line that results in a batted ball, etc.

But it's good to see Kaepernick in the Top Ten in all or nearly all of these lists. People talk about his running ability, but his passing is top ten. I like how he noted that due to the difficulty of his passes, he still exceeded the expected percentage by a lot.

Tried to post the article but the graphs don't come out, just look at the link. And no, I am not posting it for any comment or claim re: the QB that used to be here. It explained why his numbers were where they were - conservative plays, though he did exceed those expected percentages.

no doubt, Kap goes as his passing goes. this is just the nature of all NFL QB's.

his running IS a factor but only because his passing was "all things equal". if his passing wasn't good last year, he wouldn't be dangerous.

 

[tallglassofwater007]

Fuck Aaron Rodgers.

 

[MHSL82]

Fuck Aaron Rodgers.

Three should second you on this, but maybe for a different reason. Packers fans and players = the enemy. You, I assume, said this because we should have gotten him or do you, too, hate Packers for being Packers?

 

[Dodub]

That must make Chiefs fans happy to see how well Alex Smith ranks

 

[MHSL82]

That must make Chiefs fans happy to see how well Alex Smith ranks

I think if Reid's offense is built to take advantage of those areas, even if it is a lot more passes, I think they will, but if Reid's offense were different, they'd see it as a lot of others do, the coach straining to get as much as they can from someone that is limited. If your system works and you have someone who fits your system, those limitations are minimized. How far your system could work is questioned, though.

As I've always said, it beats the alternative of being weaker where he is and doing poorly in the above areas. You need something from him to be playing well if he's playing.

 

[threelittleturds]

That is so weird how they list Smith as Alex D. Smith, not to be confused with Alex Smith the TE. Really? Cause for a second there I was wondering if a stat about QBs included a TE's passing stats.

It is cool to see Kaepernick so high on their lists but it seems like that is mostly because they expected him to suck but instead he greatly exceeded their low expectations.

 

[MHSL82]

That is so weird how they list Smith as Alex D. Smith, not to be confused with Alex Smith the TE. Really? Cause for a second there I was wondering if a stat about QBs included a TE's passing stats.

It is cool to see Kaepernick so high on their lists but it seems like that is mostly because they expected him to suck but instead he greatly exceeded their low expectations.

The expectations were taken from the distance of the passes. The greater distance, the lower the league average was, but he exceeded that. I think the expected percentage is what all QBs in that particular distance in the air complete. All it means is that Kaep attempts harder throws and the fact he's exceeding them to the point of Top Ten is more than impressive. And he'll get better at most of them over time, IMO. Kaepernick is raising the average percentage though, hurting the differential. True but that's with all stats like this that include all QBs.

 

[Dodub]

I think if Reid's offense is built to take advantage of those areas, even if it is a lot more passes, I think they will, but if Reid's offense were different, they'd see it as a lot of others do, the coach straining to get as much as they can from someone that is limited. If your system works and you have someone who fits your system, those limitations are minimized. How far your system could work is questioned, though.

As I've always said, it beats the alternative of being weaker where he is and doing poorly in the above areas. You need something from him to be playing well if he's playing.

Andy Reid has dealt with limited QB's for a long time an had success. McNabb was terribly inaccurate on short throws, sure he had a connon for an arm. Vick was limited on all areas of passing, again a connon of an arm but limited. I find it surprising that Alex finished in the top 10 in long throws. I think they'll bevery happy with him.

 

[MHSL82]

Andy Reid has dealt with limited QB's for a long time an had success. McNabb was terribly inaccurate on short throws, sure he had a connon for an arm. Vick was limited on all areas of passing, again a connon of an arm but limited. I find it surprising that Alex finished in the top 10 in long throws. I think they'll bevery happy with him.

I'd like to know how many times he took a sack or checked down on a play where there was a designed deep throw that he wisely didn't attempt but affects the percentage above. On the one hand, operating within your abilities prevents INTs and that helps, but they also protect a percentage or rating. Times where he should have thrown it away and took a sack instead, first would not be in the stats above because they wouldn't go deep, and second because throw-aways were explicitly removed from all passers.

 

[Flyingiguana]

kap has such a strong arm, those 20 yard passes are like a screen pass for him.

 

[deep9er]

kap has such a strong arm, those 20 yard passes are like a screen pass for him.

yeah, we know he can zing it and thats great. last year he was zinging it with good accuracy too (considering the length of his throws). what we hope he can do is start to do is throw shorter?

'throw shorter' meaning giving his receivers an easier catch.

 

[Bemular]

yeah, we know he can zing it and thats great. last year he was zinging it with good accuracy too (considering the length of his throws). what we hope he can do is start to do is throw shorter?

'throw shorter' meaning giving his receivers an easier catch.

The phrase you are looking for is "throw with more touch". The truth is Kap throws a beautiful touch pass, we have seen him demonstrate this numerous times.

What Kap does, however, is use his strength at times to force throws into tight windows; Elway did precisely the same thing when he entered the league in '83.

The solution is both the receivers and Kaepernick need to make adjustments - more so the receivers. I do not want Kaepernick to NOT throw a pass because he has to put some heat on it the beat a defender.

By contrast if there are throws Kap is making too hard from a habitual stance then those are on him to tame. But ultimately, it is the receivers that need to make the bulk of adjusting here.