Coffee Talk: 7 Words You Can't Say to Jack Johnson

[scoutyjones2]

Also in any realistic scenario, when Biden dropped out - it was always going to be Kamala. Anyone else just wasn't going to happen.

I also wonder if Walz's folksy charm will wear on people during a long campaign.

But is it a long campaign?

I wished we would only allow campaigning for 90 days

 

[forty_three]

Maybe.

But if he were the guy today I don't know that it's much of a race.

With Kamala I still think once things settle down and she has to start talking and interviewing etc. it's as much of a toss up as it was when they were wheeling ol' Joe out there.

It's as close a race as it's gonna get right now and the polls have her walking away with it before the VP Pick Bump and Convention bump. Pretty much all she has to do is avoid saying all immigrants are r*pists, you can't trust Muslims and all the gays should die in a lake of fire. All the while continuing to just let JD and the Donald talk and be themselves. Plus she has Shapiro, Beshear, Cooper and Buttigieg out pushing all the right buttons on her behalf. Mayor Pete especially has been killing it. Secretary of State Pete, maybe.

Trumo support has peaked. Man went through his VP pick announcement, national convention AND got shot at and picked up exactly zero in the polls. AND he's getting sentenced for campaign finance violations in September. I am having a hard time imagining a scenario where Kamala fucks this up. The thing with Biden is he didn't energize people to get involved. Kamala is doing that among young voters, women and POC - Three groups that didn't really get behind Biden last time and he still won. Harris needs to get those people to turn out still, but I think she will.

And all of that is before Walz. I have lived in the Midwest and travelled a lot all over it and that guy is every suburban dad I have met here. He may start to eat into that "annoyed white republican dad" demo lead for Trump. Yeah, Walz might get Reagan second time out against Mondale levels of domination on his own, but Harris is going to make it super hard for Trump to get to 270. Hell, I believe they might win Ohio, people here REALLY hate Vance. Trump would have to flip something like 3 states that went Biden last time, and I just don't see it happening. I actually think/hope we're gonna see NC and Ohio flip the other way. Some people are even saying Texas could be a horse race. Could you imagine?

 

[Comeds]

But is it a long campaign?

I wished we would only allow campaigning for 90 days

Seems like forever

Me too.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Do you think if he was the nominee he would get any Trump voters?

It just seems to me people are constantly looking for reasons why the democrats will lose and blame them for it, but in any scenario I see Trumps getting 40+ million votes. And I don't blame the democrats for that

I think it’s pretty obvious at this point that the bigger need isn’t to turn voters but to get your own vote out enough to make a difference. It’s the stay homes. And excitement can get those people off their asses.

And maybe I heard it differently but I didn’t really get “folksy charm” out of Walz as much as “guy who sounds smart and can whip up a crowd”. Which we haven’t heard in 12 years from a US presidential candidate from any side of a ticket.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

It's as close a race as it's gonna get right now and the polls have her walking away with it before the VP Pick Bump and Convention bump. Pretty much all she has to do is avoid saying all immigrants are r*pists, you can't trust Muslims and all the gays should die in a lake of fire. All the while continuing to just let JD and the Donald talk and be themselves. Plus she has Shapiro, Beshear, Cooper and Buttigieg out pushing all the right buttons on her behalf. Mayor Pete especially has been killing it. Secretary of State Pete, maybe.

Trumo support has peaked. Man went through his VP pick announcement, national convention AND got shot at and picked up exactly zero in the polls. AND he's getting sentenced for campaign finance violations in September. I am having a hard time imagining a scenario where Kamala fucks this up. The thing with Biden is he didn't energize people to get involved. Kamala is doing that among young voters, women and POC - Three groups that didn't really get behind Biden last time and he still won. Harris needs to get those people to turn out still, but I think she will.

And all of that is before Walz. I have lived in the Midwest and travelled a lot all over it and that guy is every suburban dad I have met here. He may start to eat into that "annoyed white republican dad" demo lead for Trump. Yeah, Walz might get Reagan second time out against Mondale levels of domination on his own, but Harris is going to make it super hard for Trump to get to 270. Hell, I believe they might win Ohio, people here REALLY hate Vance. Trump would have to flip something like 3 states that went Biden last time, and I just don't see it happening. I actually think/hope we're gonna see NC and Ohio flip the other way. Some people are even saying Texas could be a horse race. Could you imagine?

So Trumps bump came and went but Kamala’s will undoubtedly last?

She got the benefit of last change but she still has to play out the third.

Also not putting much into the polling when so much is happening all at once. I saw one that had Harris up 10 points in Michigan and while she’s probably gaining there I think that seems kind of improbable lol

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

But is it a long campaign?

I wished we would only allow campaigning for 90 days

Hi, we do 60 day campaigns here.

We’ve basically been seeing campaign style stuff happening for over a year and our election isn’t until October 2025. Commercials, billboards, rallies, you name it.

This shit is the same everywhere.

 

[Comeds]

And maybe I heard it differently but I didn’t really get “folksy charm” out of Walz as much as “guy who sounds smart and can whip up a crowd”. Which we haven’t heard in 12 years from a US presidential candidate from any side of a titicket.

Oh he did that, and I don't necessarily mean "folksy charm" in a bad way. I like him, I could just see his persona grating on some people. Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[scoutyjones2]

Hi, we do 60 day campaigns here.

We’ve basically been seeing campaign style stuff happening for over a year and our election isn’t until October 2025. Commercials, billboards, rallies, you name it.

This shit is the same everywhere.

Is it tied only to public funding? That would be another need. Each candidate to only get x number of dollars. No more no less.

 

[forty_three]

So Trumps bump came and went but Kamala’s will undoubtedly last?

I mean yeah, in the sense that he got no bump and hers is just starting.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I mean yeah, in the sense that he got no bump and hers is just starting.

Well then when did his support peak?

Like, yeah, he didn't pop out in polls after getting shot but also the guy he was running against dropped out of the race a week later lol. Any polling done that week showed him vs. Joe Biden, which either didn't get published for the most part or if it did showed him going from 1-2% to 4-5%:



And then yeah, Kamala got the nom and the momentum and now her VP pick and then the convention. Not realistic to expect different polling-wise, there's some excitement here.

I just don't think this is going to be how it is for the next 90 days.

 

[scoutyjones2]

Well then when did his support peak?

Like, yeah, he didn't pop out in polls after getting shot but also the guy he was running against dropped out of the race a week later lol. Any polling done that week showed him vs. Joe Biden, which either didn't get published for the most part or if it did showed him going from 1-2% to 4-5%:

View attachment 369941

And then yeah, Kamala got the nom and the momentum and now her VP pick and then the convention. Not realistic to expect different polling-wise, there's some excitement here.

I just don't think this is going to be how it is for the next 90 days.

It will only get worse for Trump and Vance

 

[forty_three]

Well then when did his support peak?

Like, yeah, he didn't pop out in polls after getting shot but also the guy he was running against dropped out of the race a week later lol. Any polling done that week showed him vs. Joe Biden, which either didn't get published for the most part or if it did showed him going from 1-2% to 4-5%:

View attachment 369941

And then yeah, Kamala got the nom and the momentum and now her VP pick and then the convention. Not realistic to expect different polling-wise, there's some excitement here.

I just don't think this is going to be how it is for the next 90 days.

I feel like we're saying the same thing just in different ways.

The thing to remember about polls is they are gauging the feelings of people who answer their land line phones or seek out pollsters to give opinions. It's been 20 years since I spoke to a rando at a mall with a clipboard or answered an unknown number on my phone. I haven't even had a landline in 15 years and I am an opinionated old fart. Younger people are hardly ever accounted for in "polls". So what I see up there is old people like Trump. A huge portion of the voter base is not accurately represented by polling. Obama was "neck and neck" with McCain for large periods of time.

But the swing in the polls to Harris has been so dramatic, that tells me that Biden just didn't inspire anyone. Harris polled at the same level of Biden as a hypothetical. Now that it's a reality, people feel stronger.

The fact that Trump didn't move up even a point against a wet napkin after being SHOT AT tells me his market is saturated. And he is doing nothing to reach out to any new voting block or demographic. He's hoping paranoid old racists and Jesus Freaks are enough to get there.

Harris will get two more bumps, and trump will get a knock against him with sentencing. I don't know if Harris will hold onto whatever her popularity is at the peak, but I don't see her dropping to the level of a tight race in that 90 days unless she eats a kitten on live TV. Much like Trump isn't really going to gain ground unless he promises to kill Elon Musk or something.

 

[thedddd]

SO which is it Donnie?

 

[dash]

SO which is it Donnie?

I mean, that's four years ago, do you expect old man Trump to remember?!?

 

[dare2be]

I mean, that's four years ago, do you expect old man Trump to remember?!?

No. I expect Tronald Dump to blatantly lie for the moment at hand.

 

[Comeds]

Maybe.

But if he were the guy today I don't know that it's much of a race.

With Kamala I still think once things settle down and she has to start talking and interviewing etc. it's as much of a toss up as it was when they were wheeling ol' Joe out there.

I am not sure everyone finds Kamala as dumb and off putting as you do. I hope not at least, doesn't seem like it to me. And for a lot of the people that do, not saying you, it has more to do with her sex than anything about her.

Shes certainly brighter and far more coherent than Trump is, if that's not enough, especially given what we know about Trump....I'm not sure its the democrats fault.

 

[Comeds]

but in any scenario I see Trumps getting 40+ million votes. And I don't blame the democrats for that

Holy hell! I guess I forgot / blacked out that Trump got 74 million votes last elections. We're fucked no matter what.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I feel like we're saying the same thing just in different ways.

The thing to remember about polls is they are gauging the feelings of people who answer their land line phones or seek out pollsters to give opinions. It's been 20 years since I spoke to a rando at a mall with a clipboard or answered an unknown number on my phone. I haven't even had a landline in 15 years and I am an opinionated old fart. Younger people are hardly ever accounted for in "polls". So what I see up there is old people like Trump. A huge portion of the voter base is not accurately represented by polling. Obama was "neck and neck" with McCain for large periods of time.

But the swing in the polls to Harris has been so dramatic, that tells me that Biden just didn't inspire anyone. Harris polled at the same level of Biden as a hypothetical. Now that it's a reality, people feel stronger.

The fact that Trump didn't move up even a point against a wet napkin after being SHOT AT tells me his market is saturated. And he is doing nothing to reach out to any new voting block or demographic. He's hoping paranoid old racists and Jesus Freaks are enough to get there.

Harris will get two more bumps, and trump will get a knock against him with sentencing. I don't know if Harris will hold onto whatever her popularity is at the peak, but I don't see her dropping to the level of a tight race in that 90 days unless she eats a kitten on live TV. Much like Trump isn't really going to gain ground unless he promises to kill Elon Musk or something.

Likely lol. I do think Harris can win and she's the first candidate they've run against Donald who doesn't have any serious knocks against her.

Not sure Trump's sentencing will do much to him unless they actually put him in jail in which case he might go up considering how crazy everything is.

I am not sure everyone finds Kamala as dumb and off putting as you do. I hope not at least, doesn't seem like it to me. And for a lot of the people that do, not saying you, it has more to do with her sex than anything about her.

Shes certainly brighter and far more coherent than Trump is, if that's not enough, especially given what we know about Trump....I'm not sure its the democrats fault.

I don't think anybody finds Kamala "dumb", at least outside of racist and sexist morons. Plenty of smart people have the public appeal of a dead rodent, doesn't make them any less smart.

But like, you've seen interviews with her right? And some of the speeches she's made? She has a lot of "what the hell did I just hear?" moments. And 90 days is a long time for more of those moments to happen and pop up, especially when eventually she starts having to tackle questions about positions she ran on in 2020 that she apparently no longer holds like banning fracking and universal healthcare etc.

And she might do fine! Just saying there's a lot of opportunity for the gap to narrow again once there's no longer a new YAY! moment every week for her and the campaign grinds on.

 

[forty_three]

Likely lol. I do think Harris can win and she's the first candidate they've run against Donald who doesn't have any serious knocks against her.

Not sure Trump's sentencing will do much to him unless they actually put him in jail in which case he might go up considering how crazy everything is.

I'm actually curious how sentencing goes and what the reaction to it is. I think you're right he will get more support if they give him jail because it will ignite the "DEEAP STAYETE" nutballs. Logic would hope that going to jail would lose the law and order crowd, but who knows? Probably little chance he gets jail though.

But I have to wonder how it will play when he gets a slap on the wrist and avoids jailtime when so many of his supporters are still behind bars for Jan 6th. How are those families gonna like him "getting away with it"?



It's still insane that this is where we are, though.

 

[thedddd]