Cards get Jason Heyward

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Trade Shelby Miller & Tyrell Jenkins for Heyward & Jordan Walden...


Excellent move by St Louis, grabbing the next best trade option to Stanton... I was hoping the Red Sox would make this move...

Boy, that's a huge fucking drop from #1 to #2.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The Cardinals are definitely taking the bigger risk but I think its the right move to make. They dont have Taveras and they want to move Carlos Martinez into a starting pitcher role and this fits into their long term plans fairly well as long as Heyward doesnt bust.

This is probably a win/win trade

Considering how highly touted Heyward was as a prospect, how he's performed thus far, and the durability issues for such a young player, I think it's fair to say "as long as Heyward doesn't continue to bust."

 

[Mistaken4193]

Heyward's bat has certainly been disappointing, but a 108 OPS+ and .351 OBP are far from bad. Combine that with his ridiculous defense and you have yourself a damn good player. His power numbers have fallen off pretty sharply over the last two years though, which is a bit concerning.

Shelby Miller does have 4 years of team control left, and he's only 24. Miller's coming off a very pedestrian 2014 season (which saw his strikeout rate fall off a cliff), though he did pitch much better in the 2nd half and cut down on the walks. Cardinals do have a lot of young pitching.

I think a lot of that is us putting him in the leadoff spot and him just trying to get on base in front of J UPton and Freeman

 

[Montalban]

You have to like the way the Cardinals continually re-make and improve their team. They are a first class organization. Right up there with the Giants.

 

[Clayton]

Considering how highly touted Heyward was as a prospect, how he's performed thus far, and the durability issues for such a young player, I think it's fair to say "as long as Heyward doesn't continue to bust."

To be fair, Shelby Miller is also a highly touted prospect and has been mediocre throughout except that he has had success late last regular season by adding a new pitch. The commitment to Heyward is potentially just more expensive.

 

[element1286]

Seems like a decent deal for both sides, Braves win the long term. Cards get the best short term, although I would guess they'll resign Heyward sometime between now and when he becomes an FA.

 

[Mondo Jay]

I am not a big proponent of WAR, but I was surprised to see Heyward's ranking comparing so favorably to Stanton's.

I guess defense and base running really help Heyward's number.

 

[Darkstone42]

I like this deal for both sides (which means I actually hate it as a Pirates fan). Heyward is a good player, regardless of what people think about the hype around him, and immediately upgrades the Cardinals' lineup. Walden is a good reliever, but he's also a reliever, so his value is always going to be in question.

Shelby Miller is a good, young pitcher with upside under control for four years, and the Braves might have trouble holding onto Santana, so they'll need another arm. And, of course, starting pitching is immensely valuable.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I am not a big proponent of WAR, but I was surprised to see Heyward's ranking comparing so favorably to Stanton's.

I guess defense and base running really help Heyward's number.

Me too, Champ.

However, I have a hard time buying into a stat that ranks Heyward's & McCutchen's 2014 seasons as dead even at 6.4. Here are their slash lines:

AM - .314/.410/.542/.952
JH - .271/.351/.384/.735

That is a HUGE offensive disparity. You're going to have a hard time convincing me that Heyward is that much better defensively than McCutchen.

 

[Mondo Jay]

I like this deal for both sides (which means I actually hate it as a Pirates fan). Heyward is a good player, regardless of what people think about the hype around him, and immediately upgrades the Cardinals' lineup. Walden is a good reliever, but he's also a reliever, so his value is always going to be in question.

Shelby Miller is a good, young pitcher with upside under control for four years, and the Braves might have trouble holding onto Santana, so they'll need another arm. And, of course, starting pitching is immensely valuable.

Agreed. Btw, Santana declined the Brave's offer and is a FA.

 

[Clayton]

Me too, Champ.

However, I have a hard time buying into a stat that ranks Heyward's & McCutchen's 2014 seasons as dead even at 6.4. Here are their slash lines:

AM - .314/.410/.542/.952
JH - .271/.351/.384/.735

That is a HUGE offensive disparity. You're going to have a hard time convincing me that Heyward is that much better defensively than McCutchen.

Yeah, Im not sure I trust anything that suggests that Heyward and McCutchen were on the same level last year but the Cardinals could really use the defense given that they have 2 starting pitchers who dont allow HRs and a reliever who has issues giving up walks.

 

[calsnowskier]

The first direct baseball ramification of the Taveras tragedy. Hayward has all the potential in the world, but has not really performed to those expectations. Miller, I think, can be a solid 2/3 with potential to be a lower-end 1.

I like the deal for both teams, but more-so for St Louis. They get the Taveras replacement that they needed and dealt from a position of excess. I like going all-in for pitching, but where are the Braves going to score?

 

[Mondo Jay]

The first direct baseball ramification of the Taveras tragedy. Hayward has all the potential in the world, but has not really performed to those expectations. Miller, I think, can be a solid 2/3 with potential to be a lower-end 1.

I like the deal for both teams, but more-so for St Louis. They get the Taveras replacement that they needed and dealt from a position of excess. I like going all-in for pitching, but where are the Braves going to score?

Good points. The Braves offense was fucking awful last year. They get a solid starting pitcher with 4 years of cheap control, but hopefully there is a plan to add to the offense. They desperately need some contact hitters.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Me too, Champ.

However, I have a hard time buying into a stat that ranks Heyward's & McCutchen's 2014 seasons as dead even at 6.4. Here are their slash lines:

AM - .314/.410/.542/.952
JH - .271/.351/.384/.735

That is a HUGE offensive disparity. You're going to have a hard time convincing me that Heyward is that much better defensively than McCutchen.

That's the main flaw with WAR....it's hard to determine how much defense should be weighted in the equation.

Fangraphs version of WAR appears to weigh defense less....McCutchen's WAR was 6.8 while Heyward's was 5.1

 

[Darkstone42]

Agreed. Btw, Santana declined the Brave's offer and is a FA.

Most guys turn down the QO, though. His projected market price, though, is kind of steep, especially for a team not sure if they'll be contending next year.

 

[Darkstone42]

That's the main flaw with WAR....it's hard to determine how much defense should be weighted in the equation.

Fangraphs version of WAR appears to weigh defense less....McCutchen's WAR was 6.8 while Heyward's was 5.1

I trust Fangraphs WAR more than other WARs because I think they do a better job of identifying and adjusting real-time when there are problems with the formula.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

Sucks that STL was forced to trade a decent, young starter due to the Taveras tragedy to fill in a gap in their OF.

 

[packerzrule]

Fucking Red Birds

 

[podsox]

everything the cards touch not named rick ankiel seems to turn to gold. I expect heyward to finally be the star everyone thought he would be

 

[ducky]

Me too, Champ.

However, I have a hard time buying into a stat that ranks Heyward's & McCutchen's 2014 seasons as dead even at 6.4. Here are their slash lines:

AM - .314/.410/.542/.952
JH - .271/.351/.384/.735

That is a HUGE offensive disparity. You're going to have a hard time convincing me that Heyward is that much better defensively than McCutchen.

A perfect illustration of what a piece of crap WAR is.

People need to quit looking at it until they can accurately measure defense. Right now the only thing it measures is quantity. And because Atlanta pitching staff, because of style and philosophy, create more fly balls to RF than any other team in the league, it thinks Howard is some sort defensive ace. But the fact is anyone who played RF for the Braves last year would have the same bump in defensive rating.

This has interestingly been a trend for quite a few years with ATL too. A couple years ago they were rated with the current defensive measurements as being one of the greatest defensive OF's in the history of the league. But the truth is they just had the most extreme fly ball pitching staff in the history of the game. But the current stats that they pump out and put into WAR can't tell the difference.

And you could have put Willie Mays in CF for Pittsburgh last year and the defensive stats would have given him a negative rating. That's because once again it can't distinguish between a bad defensive CF and one that didn't get a lot of chances because of the pitching staff didn't have catchable balls hit in that direction.

....and in truth its idiotic to think that a RF can win as many games as WAR predicts with his defense anyway. Corner outfield defense is not that important at all. The average RF gets 2 to 3 chances a game to make an out and you can go an entire month of baseball before a good defensive outfielder will make a play that a poor defensive outfielder can't. And one missed chance isn't the difference between a win and a loss more often than not.

Heyward & McCutchen aren't even close to the same level of player. Yet people still continue to use a stat that says they are. It's mind-boggling. And every year there are perfect examples like this about how flawed the measurements are.