Can one of you geniuses figure out if this is legit?

[msgkings322]

I could probably look into to it but seems easier to leverage the collective mind that is the internet and the Hoop lol (flattery to start, ok here we go...)

On the Giants game thread I brought this up...my dad has a baseball gambling 'system' (really a trick) that he thinks is real. After a team has a long losing or winning streak, 5+ games, when they break the streak, they repeat that last outcome the next game. So you win a game to break a 5+ game losing streak, you bet on them to win again the next day. And vice versa for winning streaks breaking.

Worked tonight for the Giants...better work tomorrow for the White Sox who tonight ended a 15 game losing streak, longest in a franchise started in 1900's history (but I'm not bitter)

Anyhoo the question is: can we test this idea? Even if it works 55-58% of the time that's a huge gambler's edge. My rudimentary understanding of gambling (I am not a sports gambler, I don't even do vcash bets lol) is that a simple system like that would eventually have the edge go away as the odds reflect it, the bookies would know to pay out less on those games until the expected payout matches other games and the system doesn't work...is that a thing? Or can we band together as Hooplans and go stack some cheddar?

 

[msgkings322]

So the system worked again, for the White Sox even...how much money did y'all win?

 

[Cedrique]

So the system worked again, for the White Sox even...how much money did y'all win?

I didn't get any down today but on Monday I plan to drain the 401k so next time a team snaps a long losing streak I'll be ready!

 

[msgkings322]

So I went back and looked at all “system” games since June 1. Including the Sox, Yankees, and Padres today the system has been right 7 out of 8 possible games, with only the Rockies not cashing a couple days ago.

No system games tomorrow but I’m going to keep watching that’s a great start lol

 

[Hunter Montana]

You could look through each team's schedule on baseball reference.

For example, this year's Phillies: 2024 Philadelphia Phillies Schedule | Baseball-Reference.com

I did the top 4 teams for their 2024 games, and if I counted correct, this is what I got.

PHI: 1 for 3
NYY: 2 for 4
CLE: 0 for 3
BAL: 0 for 1

For a total of 3 for 11. This sounds like the old probability question that goes something like "If I flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row, what are the odds I will get tails the next time?" The answer should be 50% because past flips should have no influence on the outcomes of future flips. It is more complicated in sports, but I think the general idea is about the same. There is probably a way to write a script to get the data of baseball reference. However, from what I have gathered so far, the idea seems pretty far from being a sure thing.

 

[Hunter Montana]

I did the top 10 teams for 2024:

PHI: 1 for 3
NYY: 2 for 4
CLE: 0 for 3
BAL: 0 for 1
LAD: 1 for 3
KCR: 1 for 2
MIL: 1 for 1
ATL: 0 for 1
SEA: 0 for 0
MIN: 1 for 3
TOTAL: 7 for 21 (33%). Maybe you should bet the other way.

 

[Hunter Montana]

Well, I went ahead and did the rest anyway for the 2024 season. The total for all teams was 28/63 (44.44%).

What I found a little interesting is that while the top 10 teams went 7/21 (33.33%), the middle 10 teams went 8/16 (50%), and the bottom 10 teams went 13/26 (50%). Not sure if that means anything or if it will be consistent for the rest of this season or with other previous seasons.

 

[msgkings322]

Well, I went ahead and did the rest anyway for the 2024 season. The total for all teams was 28/63 (44.44%).

What I found a little interesting is that while the top 10 teams went 7/21 (33.33%), the middle 10 teams went 8/16 (50%), and the bottom 10 teams went 13/26 (50%). Not sure if that means anything or if it will be consistent for the rest of this season or with other previous seasons.

I wonder if it’s because the top teams have more winning streaks than losing ones, so they cash when they lose 2 in a row and that doesn’t happen as much? Then again the same could be said in reverse for the bad teams so

 

[DrewScott]

Your Dad's system is as good as any, but at the end of the day, all systems of gambling rely one one thing....luck.

 

[Cedrique]

Well, I went ahead and did the rest anyway for the 2024 season. The total for all teams was 28/63 (44.44%).

What I found a little interesting is that while the top 10 teams went 7/21 (33.33%), the middle 10 teams went 8/16 (50%), and the bottom 10 teams went 13/26 (50%). Not sure if that means anything or if it will be consistent for the rest of this season or with other previous seasons.

The component you don't have is the odds for those games. There's no pointspread in baseball so you bet a money line which means the payout is less for a favorite and more for an underdog. So when you think about it, the top teams were probably coming off winning streaks so you'd be betting against them after breaking the streak. And the bottom teams were probably coming off losing streaks so you'd be betting on them after breaking the streak. So I'm guessing you'd be taking a lot more underdogs than favorites. So for example, if you took the White Sox yesterday with that garbage pitcher they had you would have been paid out something like 150 for every 100 you bet.

So the point is, if the "system" leads to you taking a lot of underdogs then 44% could still be profitable. The problem is I don't know where you get historical data for the betting odds so we really don't know. It is still interesting though. I'd like to see how it looks for previous seasons. Not sure how long that would take though. Maybe someone could get ChatGpt to do it for them or something......

 

[DJ Fieri]

I could probably look into to it but seems easier to leverage the collective mind that is the internet and the Hoop lol (flattery to start, ok here we go...)

On the Giants game thread I brought this up...my dad has a baseball gambling 'system' (really a trick) that he thinks is real. After a team has a long losing or winning streak, 5+ games, when they break the streak, they repeat that last outcome the next game. So you win a game to break a 5+ game losing streak, you bet on them to win again the next day. And vice versa for winning streaks breaking.

Worked tonight for the Giants...better work tomorrow for the White Sox who tonight ended a 15 game losing streak, longest in a franchise started in 1900's history (but I'm not bitter)

Anyhoo the question is: can we test this idea? Even if it works 55-58% of the time that's a huge gambler's edge. My rudimentary understanding of gambling (I am not a sports gambler, I don't even do vcash bets lol) is that a simple system like that would eventually have the edge go away as the odds reflect it, the bookies would know to pay out less on those games until the expected payout matches other games and the system doesn't work...is that a thing? Or can we band together as Hooplans and go stack some cheddar?

*Paging tHoop's resident gambling expert....*

@thunderc

 

[thunderc]

I could probably look into to it but seems easier to leverage the collective mind that is the internet and the Hoop lol (flattery to start, ok here we go...)

On the Giants game thread I brought this up...my dad has a baseball gambling 'system' (really a trick) that he thinks is real. After a team has a long losing or winning streak, 5+ games, when they break the streak, they repeat that last outcome the next game. So you win a game to break a 5+ game losing streak, you bet on them to win again the next day. And vice versa for winning streaks breaking.

Worked tonight for the Giants...better work tomorrow for the White Sox who tonight ended a 15 game losing streak, longest in a franchise started in 1900's history (but I'm not bitter)

Anyhoo the question is: can we test this idea? Even if it works 55-58% of the time that's a huge gambler's edge. My rudimentary understanding of gambling (I am not a sports gambler, I don't even do vcash bets lol) is that a simple system like that would eventually have the edge go away as the odds reflect it, the bookies would know to pay out less on those games until the expected payout matches other games and the system doesn't work...is that a thing? Or can we band together as Hooplans and go stack some cheddar?

Systems like this go way back. The truth is sure there are things that will work for certain people at certain times, but I don’t see this one as being that. This is no different than the old look the roulette wheel has been black 5 straight times it has to be red. The truth is the chance of a 6th straight black is just as good as red. Now I have a blackjack strategy that I know works but you have to be disciplined. It’s a double when you lose strategy so you are hoping for a normal run of cards where you are winning and losing regularly. Sit down at a $25 table with $775 and the whole idea is you are trying to win $25. So first hand that’s what you bet. Win and you start over trying to win $25. Lose though and you bet $50, then $100, then $200 and then if you lose 4 in a row you will have to bet $400. When you win a hand you are up $25 again and you start over. If you ever lose that 5th in a row then you just stop, you lost. I have played for hours though and not lost 5 hands in a row. I have found the big shoe games work the best for this, you just want a random run of cards. Sure I’ve lost that 5th hand before I wasnt up enough to cover it but over time I know for a fact I’m way ahead on it. If you just want to bet $10 then you need to sit down with $310. Basically this is using your money against theirs as I see it. It’s a lot harder to stick with it than you would think though, the double downs and stuff come into play. But it is a way to in general get a lot of play on a set amount of money and I know for a fact there are a lot of winning sessions. Just win 1 out of 5 hands and repeat it a bunch of times.

 

[msgkings322]

The component you don't have is the odds for those games. There's no pointspread in baseball so you bet a money line which means the payout is less for a favorite and more for an underdog. So when you think about it, the top teams were probably coming off winning streaks so you'd be betting against them after breaking the streak. And the bottom teams were probably coming off losing streaks so you'd be betting on them after breaking the streak. So I'm guessing you'd be taking a lot more underdogs than favorites. So for example, if you took the White Sox yesterday with that garbage pitcher they had you would have been paid out something like 150 for every 100 you bet.

So the point is, if the "system" leads to you taking a lot of underdogs then 44% could still be profitable. The problem is I don't know where you get historical data for the betting odds so we really don't know. It is still interesting though. I'd like to see how it looks for previous seasons. Not sure how long that would take though. Maybe someone could get ChatGpt to do it for them or something......

Right I figured the bookies would sniff this out if it was real and adjust the lines accordingly but 44% seems pretty solid if like you say you are betting underdogs often

 

[msgkings322]

Systems like this go way back. The truth is sure there are things that will work for certain people at certain times, but I don’t see this one as being that. This is no different than the old look the roulette wheel has been black 5 straight times it has to be red. The truth is the chance of a 6th straight black is just as good as red. Now I have a blackjack strategy that I know works but you have to be disciplined. It’s a double when you lose strategy so you are hoping for a normal run of cards where you are winning and losing regularly. Sit down at a $25 table with $775 and the whole idea is you are trying to win $25. So first hand that’s what you bet. Win and you start over trying to win $25. Lose though and you bet $50, then $100, then $200 and then if you lose 4 in a row you will have to bet $400. When you win a hand you are up $25 again and you start over. If you ever lose that 5th in a row then you just stop, you lost. I have played for hours though and not lost 5 hands in a row. I have found the big shoe games work the best for this, you just want a random run of cards. Sure I’ve lost that 5th hand before I wasnt up enough to cover it but over time I know for a fact I’m way ahead on it. If you just want to bet $10 then you need to sit down with $310. Basically this is using your money against theirs as I see it. It’s a lot harder to stick with it than you would think though, the double downs and stuff come into play. But it is a way to in general get a lot of play on a set amount of money and I know for a fact there are a lot of winning sessions. Just win 1 out of 5 hands and repeat it a bunch of times.

It's not like those. Your examples here are basically saying hey this team lost (or won) 5+ in a row, they are due to win (or lose) so keep betting them to do so, maybe double your bets too like the blackjack idea.

This is fundamentally different, you don't bet the streak ending at all, so the streak can go as long as it goes, no risk to you. You only bet once, the game AFTER the streak ends. My dad's hunch was a team finally breaks a streak and that gives them confidence (or brings them down) and they do the same thing the next game. Working really well in June, the White Sox lost 14 (!) in a row, then won 2 in a row. The 'system' is 7-1 in June. But 44% overall if Cedrique is correct so then the moneyline would determine if this gives you an edge.

No system games to bet today but I'm going to keep the tally going just for giggles and see how it goes.

 

[msgkings322]

Ok the Reds finally lost so their next game is a system game, they should lose again according to the trick. I think that’s the only system game tomorrow but I’ll have to check

 

[msgkings322]

Just looked, the Twins also have a system game tomorrow, the prediction is they will win again after breaking a 5 game losing streak today.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Just looked, the Twins also have a system game tomorrow, the prediction is they will win again after breaking a 5 game losing streak today.

And if they dont

It means they lost to the fucking Rockies at home

 

[msgkings322]

And if they dont

It means they lost to the fucking Rockies at home

Exactly, often the 'system' game is one that would have likely happened anyway, like beating the Rockies at home

 

[Cedrique]

Exactly, often the 'system' game is one that would have likely happened anyway, like beating the Rockies at home

Yeah the Twins are big favorites tonight.

 

[DJ Fieri]

Just looked, the Twins also have a system game tomorrow, the prediction is they will win again after breaking a 5 game losing streak today.

They also play the 23-42 Rockies. They are a big fave.