Can Aaron Rodgers be part of the problem?

[GNG]

I'd call it good. 21 TD's and 1 INT. Just not a good Rodgers season.


Sure they've got a below average D that can't tackle, arguably the worst ST unit in the NFL, and an inconsistent run game with a below average coach and players that seem to be trying to take away any chance of him bringing them back with timely drops, fumbles and brain dead plays. But usually that wasn't enough to slow down Rodgers and they'd still have double digit wins.


I think it's more his legs than his arm. He just doesn't look comfortable scrambling which is where he used to eat you up. Rest of his game is pretty similar. He's getting stuck and having to throw it away WAYYYY too much. (Put it this way. Winston's comp% goes from 67.7 to 67.9 without his intentional throw aways. Rodgers goes from 61.8 to 69.1% without his). So while he's not throwing as accurately as we are used to, don't let someone tell you it's as bad as that comp% looks.


Still holds onto the ball for forever but he's not evading and turning those into big plays as often. It seems he's scrambling to survive more rather than scrambling to make the defense pay. Not getting out early enough or slipping away enough to set and make the big throw. Getting caught and sacked/stripped a little more without the runs and big plays to offset them.



As for him being part of the problem? Ask the Dolphins fans here who had their QB's following Marino if Rodgers is a problem. I think you get his legs back under him. If you can do that you likely have an elite QB again. If not you have a very good one (Or maybe still great if you change the offense to focus on getting the ball out quicker and less reliant on his physical skills).

 

[Scooby-Doo]

Guns - You say Rodgers isn't having a good season, kuwait disagrees, then you call him a winner. I'm gong to go our on a limb and assume your day job is not as a litigator?

Rodgers is not having a good season.

I'd call it good. 21 TD's and 1 INT. Just not a good Rodgers season.


Sure they've got a below average D that can't tackle, arguably the worst ST unit in the NFL, and an inconsistent run game with a below average coach and players that seem to be trying to take away any chance of him bringing them back with timely drops, fumbles and brain dead plays. But usually that wasn't enough to slow down Rodgers and they'd still have double digit wins.


I think it's more his legs than his arm. He just doesn't look comfortable scrambling which is where he used to eat you up. Rest of his game is pretty similar. He's getting stuck and having to throw it away WAYYYY too much. (Put it this way. Winston's comp% goes from 67.7 to 67.9 without his intentional throw aways. Rodgers goes from 61.8 to 69.1% without his). So while he's not throwing as accurately as we are used to, don't let someone tell you it's as bad as that comp% looks.


Still holds onto the ball for forever but he's not evading and turning those into big plays as often. It seems he's scrambling to survive more rather than scrambling to make the defense pay. Not getting out early enough or slipping away enough to set and make the big throw. Getting caught and sacked/stripped a little more without the runs and big plays to offset them.



As for him being part of the problem? Ask the Dolphins fans here who had their QB's following Marino if Rodgers is a problem. I think you get his legs back under him. If you can do that you likely have an elite QB again. If not you have a very good one (Or maybe still great if you change the offense to focus on getting the ball out quicker and less reliant on his physical skills).

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Guns - You say Rodgers isn't having a good season, kuwait disagrees, then you call him a winner. I'm gong to go our on a limb and assume your day job is not as a litigator?

I think it's all relevant. Not a good season for Rodgers. Pretty good season for just about anyone else.

Isn't it amazing though how elite QB's no longer have truly down years until they are done. Where a better than 20:1 TD:INT ratio is a "what's wrong with him?" year.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

I think it's all relevant. Not a good season for Rodgers. Pretty good season for just about anyone else.

Isn't it amazing though how elite QB's no longer have truly down years until they are done. Where a better than 20:1 TD:INT ratio is a "what's wrong with him?" year.

I agree. My who narrative is about this year alone and people get all sensitive.

Regardless of his TD to IND ratio, he is struggling when the game is on the line which is something you never saw from him in the past. The last 3 or 4 games he has had really rough second half's.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

I agree. My who narrative is about this year alone and people get all sensitive.

Regardless of his TD to IND ratio, he is struggling when the game is on the line which is something you never saw from him in the past. The last 3 or 4 games he has had really rough second half's.

Yeah his entire team has just been a disaster late in games. ST, situational defense, playcalling.

But him and his receivers have been duds the past few games in the 2nd half as you say. I swear it's looked most of the time like they don't even want to give him a chance. It isn't everything but his QB rating is 106 in the last 4 minutes of games he's behind which isn't too bad. Not Brady/Ryan good this year, but well over guys like Ben, Brees, Wentz, and Rivers.

The team is a few plays from controlling their destiny (some choke kicks and fumbled returns). But 7-8 years ago they could lose those hard breaks and it was 10-11 wins for them, not a losing season.

 

[LambeauLegs]

Packers current assistant head coach this morning



Packers former assistant head coach this evening

 

[broncosmitty]

It is nice to not be run away divisional dumpster fire champs.



Always appreciate competition.

 

[CaptainStubing]

 

[navamind]

the 21/1 TD/INT ratio looks very nice, but 1 interception in 400+ pass attempts seems awfully fluky. the completion percentage and Y/A are pretty pedestrian.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Had to um, uh...Rainbow this

 

[GNG]

And who's fault is that ? just sayin'

 

[GNG]

bump

 

[Rockinkuwait]

the 21/1 TD/INT ratio looks very nice, but 1 interception in 400+ pass attempts seems awfully fluky. the completion percentage and Y/A are pretty pedestrian.

I agree. He's thrown it away a LOT more than anyone else this year. 49 throw aways (avg is around 12-17, this is by far the most since 2004 when they were recorded... and in just 12 games). If his throwaways were just top 7 instead of outlier most ever in the NFL, he'd be at 67% completions and over 8 yards per attempt, both top 10 numbers with a pretty good TD:INT rate.

When he's actually throwing to a receiver (not spiking or throwing it away) and the receivers aren't dropping it, his comp% this year is higher than Brady, Ben, or Winston even. And when you figure that only Mahomes has thrown deep more (where avg comp% is around 45%), that hurts too (why he won't ever lead NFL in comp%).

PFF does completion percentage without spikes, batted at the line throws, throwaways, or hit as throwing. Actual accuracy targeting a receiver.

2012 he was 72%
2013 he was 78%
2014 he was 75%
2015 he was 73%
2016 74.5%
2017 76%
2018 75%

Those are all around average to a bit above (throwing deeper more often).

So not much change when actually targeting a receiver this year. Just A LOT more throwaways and a few more drops... Which is a problem, but I think one less about his arm and ability to throw, and more about his legs and the weapons/scheme. He used to be breaking contain, get himself a little space to scan and make a throw. This year it's more break contain run for his life and throw it away to avoid the sack.

I think next year you put in a scheme with more like what the Brady/Rivers/Eli/Brees guys do with more outlet options to give him a choice for a 5 yard dump instead of a throwaway or needing to use athleticism to make the play. A slot guy or receiving back he can rely on to win at the LOS and create separation within 5 yards of the LOS with quickness. Don't have to blow a lot of money to get a Cole Beasley or a Jermaine Kearse type or a 3rd down back. Just a guy who 3-5 times a game you can drop it off to and make it 3rd and 3 instead of 3rd and 10.