Broncos 2021 Receiving Projections (by a self appointed idiot expert)

[Speardog_Atlas]

I think maybe Denver's road to success this year will mostly revolve around the running game. They look very good and the OL looks to be its strongest since 1998.

 

[Wamu]

I wouldn't call it a hope, as much as playing with statistics. All those numbers are 100% within possibility as individual statistics based on the factors I expanded on.

Remember that those numbers I posted are based on a 17 games, not 16. If you bump the other QBs to 17 games with average statistics to just the QB passing numbers in 2020, that puts them at.

Watson: 5124
Mahomes: 5372
Brady: 4923
Ryan: 4867
Allen: 4828
Herbert: 4914
Rodgers: 4568

That puts that 4731 in 6th, which is damn high, but again those are not hard predictions. Bump every receiver down a couple receptions like 30 yards and suddenly it's 4521 yards in 17 games for 265.9 Yards per game, basically matching Jared Goff in 2020. Hell, bump them down 50 yards each (still giving us 2 1100 yard receivers), for 257.7 YPG and 4381. That is barely an adjustment for those predictions, but makes a dramatic difference for the team/QB totals.

If the QB who starts this season can't hit numbers like that, which would barely put them in the top half of the league, then we should probably move on from them both.

That said, there are MASSIVE variables that aren't taken into account. So yes, this is likely on the high side when looking at the overall combined performance those predictions suggest. I tend to err on the side of the positive when number crunching. So they are realistic, but based on some pretty optimistic assumptions.

You think whoever the starter will be will throw for 4,500+ yards? I just don't see that happening.

 

[Samiwindr]

Oooh....can I play? I love playing with the stats to try to predict performance.

By taking previous seasons Target %, Catch%, YPC, and TD%, mixed liberally with artistic license I came up with this breakdown.

Sutton: 77 Rec 1181 Yds 8TD
Jeudy: 70 Rec 1150 Yds 5TD
Fant: 66 Rec 721 Yds 5TD
Patrick: 38 Rec 547 Yds 4TD
Hamler: 38 Rec 478 Yds 4TD
Albert O: 36 Rec 414 YDS 4TD
RBs: 40 Rec 240 Yds 2TD

Give or take a bit on each one obviously.

If Sutton is fully recovered from the knee, I think he'll have a much bigger year. He was beasting before the injury with scrubs for QB's. He Lock were on the same page in 2019.

 

[Speardog_Atlas]

If Sutton is fully recovered from the knee, I think he'll have a much bigger year. He was beasting before the injury with scrubs for QB's. He Lock were on the same page in 2019.

I don't know.... Juedy is open almost every single play. I could see them both beasting and finish a little over 1000 yards with Hammler and Fant also having good years.

 

[CEH]

Juedy just needs to catch the ball

when the lights come on.

he was breaking ankles last year in TC

 

[2Kback]

You think whoever the starter will be will throw for 4,500+ yards? I just don't see that happening.

If the starter plays all 17 games, and our main receiving weapons stay healthy, then I think 4000-4500 is pretty much a sure thing.

 

[Wamu]

If the starter plays all 17 games, and our main receiving weapons stay healthy, then I think 4000-4500 is pretty much a sure thing.

Obviously only time will tell. Hope you're right though.

Any idea what the hell the Bowlen kids are gonna do with the team? And I really wish they would have renamed the stadium Pat Bowlen Field at Mile High Stadium.

 

[SpringStein]

Obviously only time will tell. Hope you're right though.

Any idea what the hell the Bowlen kids are gonna do with the team? And I really wish they would have renamed the stadium Pat Bowlen Field at Mile High Stadium.

All any of us can do is guess - but the thinking seems to be that they will sell the team. I sure hope so. To me, it will always be a handicap to not have quality leadership From the top.

 

[Wamu]

All any of us can do is guess - but the thinking seems to be that they will sell the team. I sure hope so. To me, it will always be a handicap to not have quality leadership From the top.

It's a shame how the Bowlen kids are fighting with each other. Their father would be disappointed.

 

[2Kback]

It's a shame how the Bowlen kids are fighting with each other. Their father would be disappointed.

These sorts of situations regarding inheritance bring out the worst in people.