Biggest weaknesses for NFC South teams - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

Part 1 of 2

Biggest roster weaknesses for Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Buccaneers - NFL
By Aaron Schatz

New Orleans Saints
Biggest post-draft weakness: Receiver depth

Kenny Stills caught 63 passes for 931 yards last year, leading the Saints in receiving yards. Jimmy Graham was right behind him with 889 yards and caught 10 receiving touchdowns, twice as many as anyone else in New Orleans. The Saints traded Stills to Miami and Graham to Seattle, and then replaced them with very little. The Saints did not draft a single player at wide receiver or tight end and signed only one free agent: Josh Morgan, a 30-year-old veteran who caught just 10 passes for 70 yards in Chicago last year.

Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston are a strong pair of starting wide receivers, but what kind of personnel will the Saints be able to put on the field when they want to go three-wide, which they did on 51 percent of plays last year? Right now the replacement for Stills is Nick Toon, who has struggled with injuries for three years in the NFL and has only 21 career receptions. The Saints' best deep threat is Joseph Morgan, a player Sean Payton was so angry at a few months ago that he cut Morgan as a scapegoat after the Week 14 loss to Carolina. (Morgan re-signed in April.) Also hoping for playing time is Jalen Saunders, a fourth-round pick of the Jets a year ago who has also been through practice squads in Arizona and Seattle during his brief time in the NFL.

Tight end presents similar issues. The Saints are expecting big things from third-year tight end Josh Hill, who was strong last year in limited playing time (176 yards and 5 touchdowns on only 14 catches). They also have veteran Benjamin Watson. But if the Saints want to use two tight ends, which they did on 35 percent of plays last year, what happens if Hill or Watson gets hurt? Behind them on the depth chart are former Cincinnati H-back Orson Charles, who spent last year on the Saints' practice squad, and two UDFA rookies -- Jack Tabb (North Carolina) and Harold Spears (New Hampshire).

Atlanta Falcons
Biggest post-draft weakness: Tight end

The Falcons did an overall excellent job of addressing their roster weaknesses this offseason, and they did it in an efficient manner. An analysis by Football Outsiders' Andrew Healy suggests that the $3 million contract for Adrian Clayborn has the most expected bang-for-the-buck of any contract signed by a free-agent lineman this offseason. The Falcons also filled their depth chart with three veteran linebackers: two of those contracts are likely under value, and the third, for Justin Durant, is roughly at value. On draft day, the Falcons then selected Vic Beasley, who we projected as the top pass-rusher in this class, and added much-needed depth at cornerback and running back.

That leaves one huge gaping hole: tight end. The Falcons have not adapted well to the retirement of Tony Gonzalez last offseason. Replacement Levine Toilolo is more of an in-line blocker than a receiving threat, and finished dead last among all tight ends in Football Outsiders' DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) metric last season. In search of a better receiving option at the position, Atlanta signed Jacob Tamme away from Denver. However, Tamme finished 47th among 50 qualifying tight ends in DYAR a year ago; he's now 30 years old and this will be only his second season playing without Peyton Manning as his quarterback. The Falcons also signed Tony Moeaki, who has been limited to eight games in the past two years due to injuries, and Mickey Shuler, who played for five different teams over the past five seasons.

The remaining pool of free agents doesn't really offer many possible solutions either. Jermaine Gresham, formerly of Cincinnati, ranked 48th out of 50 tight ends in DYAR a year ago, falling right between Tamme and Toilolo. Zach Miller, formerly of Seattle, might be a good fit if his ankle can pass a physical, but Miller hasn't had 400 receiving yards in a season since 2010.

 

[iowajerms]

Part 2 of 2

Carolina Panthers
Biggest post-draft weakness: Left tackle

One of the big debates when it comes to the NFL draft is taking the best player available versus drafting for need. Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman has never hid his preference for taking the best player on his draft board, no matter what the Panthers needed at the time. Unfortunately, if the best player available never includes a player at a position where you have a huge need, you still come out of the draft with a big hole to fill. That problem is even worse when you trade away your third-round pick to move up in the second round to pick a player who doesn't fill the big need that you had going into the draft.

So while Shaq Thompson and Devin Funchess might be very talented football players, the Carolina Panthers have to ask themselves how on earth they will make it through the entire 2015 season without getting Cam Newton injured by an opposing pass-rusher.

Mike Remmers. He's a journeyman who has been on six different teams in three years, but our game charters only charged him with two blown blocks in five starts after he took over the position for Carolina last season. Behind him on the depth chart are Nate Chandler, last year's original starter, and the one lineman the Panthers snagged in the draft, fourth-rounder Daryl Williams out of Oklahoma.


But on the left side, the Panthers are currently counting on former Baltimore and Tennessee right tackle Michael Oher. Last year, our game charters had Oher ranked 30th among 39 right tackles in snaps per blown block (minimum 400 snaps). This is at least better than Oher ranked in 2013, when he was 36th among 37 right tackles. Things are only going to get harder for Oher on the left side. Carolina's other alternative is Jonathan Martin, who ranked 26th in snaps per blown block for San Francisco last year ... and he was also playing on the easier right side.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Biggest post-draft weakness: Defensive end

Choosing Tampa Bay's biggest weakness depends on which you find to be a bigger problem: depending on highly-drafted rookies with no NFL experience, or depending on undrafted journeymen coming off surprise breakout seasons.

History certainly teaches us that high draft picks are usually the better bet in the long-term. The Bucs now have Jameis Winston at quarterback and will likely start two second-round picks on the offensive line, Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet.

But you won't find similar young talent at defensive end after Michael Johnson was cut and Clayborn left in free agency. Currently penciled in at one starting end position is Jacquies Smith. Smith had no sacks while spending his first two years in the league with three different teams. The Bucs picked him up after Buffalo cut him early last season, and Smith ended up with 6.5 sacks and 14.0 hurries (according to Football Outsiders game charting). Both figures were second on the team to Gerald McCoy. On the other side will be George Johnson, acquired from Detroit by trade. Johnson actually began his NFL career with Tampa Bay in 2010 and had no sacks in four years with Tampa and Minnesota before breaking out with six (and 11.5 hurries) for Detroit in 2014.

What can we expect from players with sudden breakouts like this? It's hard to say, because they are so rare. I went looking for edge rushers since 2000 who were undrafted, had one sack or less in their first two seasons, and then broke out with a season of at least six sacks. There are only five, and three of them had their breakout seasons a year ago: Smith, Johnson, and Ryan Davis of Jacksonville. The fourth is Adewale Ogunleye, but unlike Smith and Johnson, Ogunleye did not bounce from team to team; the Dolphins realized what they had when they signed him and they nurtured him on their roster until he blossomed. The fifth was Mark Word, who bounced from Kansas City to the CFL to Cleveland to NFL Europe and then back to Cleveland where he had eight sacks in 2002. However, Word had only four sacks in 2003 and then headed back to Canada.

If Smith and Johnson are more like Word than they are like Ogunleye, struggling to match their breakout 2014 seasons, the Bucs don't have many notable players to replace them in the starting lineup. The second string is taken up by William Gholston, who had only two sacks last year despite nine starts, and former Chargers first-round bust Larry English, who in six years has never had more than three sacks in a season.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

This report is pretty accurate for each team. I'll add this on the Falcons.

ATL...Toilolo imo can be a much better red zone threat, but the lack of OL depth forced him to be that 6th blocker a lot more than Tony G. ever did...btw, he's not a great blocker, but at least he's improved.

IMO the Falcon are still a bit weak on the OL...Blaylock was expensive, but he was the most steady OL they had LY and he was replaced with a far lessor player. The early depth chart shows Baker as a backup LT to Matthews...but Schraeder and Holmes are the healthiest OTs they have and they are manning the starting OT spots in OTAs...Quinn is looking at Barksdale from STL...I would say OL over TE is the biggest weakness.

 

[Southieinnc]

I thought the biggest weakness for NFCS was they would have to play against an opponent.....