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Best free-agent fits for Ndamukong Suh - NFL - ESPN
By Field Yates
The 2015 NFL free-agent class is loaded with premier names across a variety of positions. The Broncos boast two of the biggest in wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and tight end Julius Thomas, as do the Cowboys in wide receiver Dez Bryant and running back DeMarco Murray. The pool will be watered down a bit by the time unrestricted free agency begins, as teams have approximately two months to extend player contracts or use the franchise or transition tags on a free agent-to-be.
But there's one particularly unique case for a coveted free agent: defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh of the Lions, among the most dominant defensive players in the league. Suh's rookie deal voids five days after the Super Bowl, and if the Lions want to use the franchise or transition tag on him, it would result in a cap number of $26.745 million for 2015 (assuming they were unable to reach a long-term deal with Suh). Couple that figure with cap numbers of $20.558 million for wide receiver Calvin Johnson and $17,721,250 for quarterback Matthew Stafford, and the Lions would have likely north of 40 percent of their 2015 cap tied to three players. While not inconceivable, it's a predicament for a team that has areas its must address elsewhere and other free agents to sign as well (the team's other talented defensive tackle, Nick Fairley, is set to be a free agent, for example).
With Suh likely to reach the open market, let's evaluate his skill set and potential free-agent fits.
Suh as a player
Often times interior line players don't have the same production as their edge counterparts, as their responsibilities are in many cases controlling blockers at the point of attack and compressing the pocket up the middle to force quarterbacks out of it. Suh's production is still noteworthy, however, as he has three seasons of at least eight sacks, including 8.5 this past season. But to further illustrate the strengths of his game, I solicited a scouting report from an NFL personnel man.
"Pretty simple," he said. "Brute strength. Rare explosive power. He rag-dolls blockers. He can physically win one-on-one versus anyone in the league. Also, he has some cross-face counter-wiggle to him that you usually don't see with a guy that big and powerful." Suh is a very rare entity: a disruptive, playmaking force as an interior pass-rusher.
The contract range
Suh won't come cheap, that much is for sure, especially if he can leverage offers from multiple teams against each other. Based on conversations with people familiar with NFL contract construction, it would not be a surprise to see Suh pursue a deal comparable to what defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams signed with the Bills back in 2012. That deal, six years in length, had a maximum value of $100 million with $50 million guaranteed. The guarantees of an NFL contract are what matter most, and Suh could well command $50 million in guarantees.
Best fits
A quick note on fits: Suh is the type of talent that any team would want and could fit any scheme. The teams outlined below have a particular need for a defensive tackle, plus are flush with financial flexibility.
1. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders aren't just one player away from competing, but the fit makes sense. From the team side, new head coach Jack Del Rio led a defense in Jacksonville (where he was head coach from 2003 to 2011) that at its best was run through its defensive tackles: John Henderson and Marcus Stroud, both high first-round picks. The Raiders, using a very conservative estimate of a 2015 salary cap of $140 million, will have north of $50 million in cap space. The team relied heavily on Antonio Smith as a defensive tackle in 2014. Smith is both light in the trunk and 33 years old, so it's a position of need. If the Raiders were to move to Los Angeles in the future, Suh would become the face of the franchise in a massive media market. Colleague Adam Schefter reported back in September that Suh would be interested in playing for New York and that Suh would understand what the market would mean for his profile. While it's no guarantee the Raiders end up in Los Angeles, that would be a nice upside benefit for Suh to consider.
2. Cleveland Browns
Much like Oakland, the Browns have an estimated $50 million-plus in cap space for next season. They also had poor defensive line play in 2014, some of which was due to injuries to key cogs (nose tackle Phil Taylor played in just five games). Suh is best cast as a 4-3 defensive tackle, but that isn't to say he couldn't play in a 3-4 defense, which Cleveland runs. Also, in a pass-friendly league, many teams spend significant snaps in sub-defense (five defensive backs or more), where Suh would be able to rush from his 3-technique alignment (outside eye of the guard). The Browns had the NFL's worst run defense in 2014 and managed just 27 sacks. The front seven needs to improve next season.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
This may come as a surprise after the team signed defensive tackle Geno Atkins to a mega-deal at the start of the 2013 season and then last offseason extended veteran Domata Peko through 2016, but I think it's fair to say the perception of the Bengals' defensive line has changed since that time. The run defense was nonexistent for stretches, and Atkins wasn't quite the pocket-disrupting force we saw before his 2013 ACL injury. The Bengals relied heavily on both players from a snap-count standpoint, but adding an impact player like Suh to a team that needs to get back to business defending the run (which dropped from fifth to 20th in the NFL from 2013 to 2014) makes some sense. For a defense that runs through its line, Suh would make the Bengals, who have over $30 million in cap space, scary. Cincinnati doesn't normally spend big on outside free agents, so this would buck a trend.
4. Chicago Bears
Schefter reported that the Bears would be among the teams with interest in Suh, and the fit makes sense. Veteran Jeremiah Ratliff had a nice bounce-back season in 2014, but he has just one year left on his deal. The team drafted a pair of defensive tackles in Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton last year, the latter of whom adds some pass-rushing juice from the interior. But Suh would be a difference-maker for a defense that needs a facelift at all three levels. The Bears will soon have a new head coach, and no matter who it is, he'd likely relish the chance to coach Suh.
5. Detroit Lions
It may be unlikely, but clearly Suh would be a dominant force if he returned to Detroit. A long-term deal would likely have to be led by a low 2015 cap number. When the Saints signed coveted safety Jairus Byrd last offseason, they structured his contract with a low cap number for the first season ($3.5 million), accomplished in part through a significant signing bonus, a minimal base salary in 2014 and then a large roster bonus in 2015 ($6 million).
Notes
• Offensive versus defensive backgrounds among head coaches: Head coaches are responsible for overseeing all facets of the operation, but we often associate their backgrounds with one side of the ball or the other. In scanning the current head coaches, it came to my attention that the NFC East has four coaches with offensive backgrounds: Tom Coughlin (Giants), Jason Garrett (Cowboys), Jay Gruden (Washington) and Chip Kelly (Eagles). Ravens head coach John Harbaugh's background primarily revolves around special teams, but he also took on defensive backs coach duties during his final year with the Eagles before being hired by Baltimore. If one includes Harbaugh, the entire AFC North has coaches with defensive backgrounds: Marvin Lewis (Bengals), Mike Pettine (Browns) and Mike Tomlin (Steelers) included.
• A Cleveland Browns coaching tree: While recording the Football Today podcast with colleague Matt Williamson this week, I learned something that stuck out: The 2004 Cleveland Browns had two coaches responsible for overseeing their secondary: Chuck Pagano and Todd Bowles. Pagano, of course, is the head coach of the Colts, who play in the AFC championship this weekend, while Bowles was just pegged as the Jets' head coach. That was certainly a lot of knowledge inside of the defensive backs meeting room.
By Field Yates
The 2015 NFL free-agent class is loaded with premier names across a variety of positions. The Broncos boast two of the biggest in wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and tight end Julius Thomas, as do the Cowboys in wide receiver Dez Bryant and running back DeMarco Murray. The pool will be watered down a bit by the time unrestricted free agency begins, as teams have approximately two months to extend player contracts or use the franchise or transition tags on a free agent-to-be.
But there's one particularly unique case for a coveted free agent: defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh of the Lions, among the most dominant defensive players in the league. Suh's rookie deal voids five days after the Super Bowl, and if the Lions want to use the franchise or transition tag on him, it would result in a cap number of $26.745 million for 2015 (assuming they were unable to reach a long-term deal with Suh). Couple that figure with cap numbers of $20.558 million for wide receiver Calvin Johnson and $17,721,250 for quarterback Matthew Stafford, and the Lions would have likely north of 40 percent of their 2015 cap tied to three players. While not inconceivable, it's a predicament for a team that has areas its must address elsewhere and other free agents to sign as well (the team's other talented defensive tackle, Nick Fairley, is set to be a free agent, for example).
With Suh likely to reach the open market, let's evaluate his skill set and potential free-agent fits.
Suh as a player
Often times interior line players don't have the same production as their edge counterparts, as their responsibilities are in many cases controlling blockers at the point of attack and compressing the pocket up the middle to force quarterbacks out of it. Suh's production is still noteworthy, however, as he has three seasons of at least eight sacks, including 8.5 this past season. But to further illustrate the strengths of his game, I solicited a scouting report from an NFL personnel man.
"Pretty simple," he said. "Brute strength. Rare explosive power. He rag-dolls blockers. He can physically win one-on-one versus anyone in the league. Also, he has some cross-face counter-wiggle to him that you usually don't see with a guy that big and powerful." Suh is a very rare entity: a disruptive, playmaking force as an interior pass-rusher.
The contract range
Suh won't come cheap, that much is for sure, especially if he can leverage offers from multiple teams against each other. Based on conversations with people familiar with NFL contract construction, it would not be a surprise to see Suh pursue a deal comparable to what defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams signed with the Bills back in 2012. That deal, six years in length, had a maximum value of $100 million with $50 million guaranteed. The guarantees of an NFL contract are what matter most, and Suh could well command $50 million in guarantees.
Best fits
A quick note on fits: Suh is the type of talent that any team would want and could fit any scheme. The teams outlined below have a particular need for a defensive tackle, plus are flush with financial flexibility.
1. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders aren't just one player away from competing, but the fit makes sense. From the team side, new head coach Jack Del Rio led a defense in Jacksonville (where he was head coach from 2003 to 2011) that at its best was run through its defensive tackles: John Henderson and Marcus Stroud, both high first-round picks. The Raiders, using a very conservative estimate of a 2015 salary cap of $140 million, will have north of $50 million in cap space. The team relied heavily on Antonio Smith as a defensive tackle in 2014. Smith is both light in the trunk and 33 years old, so it's a position of need. If the Raiders were to move to Los Angeles in the future, Suh would become the face of the franchise in a massive media market. Colleague Adam Schefter reported back in September that Suh would be interested in playing for New York and that Suh would understand what the market would mean for his profile. While it's no guarantee the Raiders end up in Los Angeles, that would be a nice upside benefit for Suh to consider.
2. Cleveland Browns
Much like Oakland, the Browns have an estimated $50 million-plus in cap space for next season. They also had poor defensive line play in 2014, some of which was due to injuries to key cogs (nose tackle Phil Taylor played in just five games). Suh is best cast as a 4-3 defensive tackle, but that isn't to say he couldn't play in a 3-4 defense, which Cleveland runs. Also, in a pass-friendly league, many teams spend significant snaps in sub-defense (five defensive backs or more), where Suh would be able to rush from his 3-technique alignment (outside eye of the guard). The Browns had the NFL's worst run defense in 2014 and managed just 27 sacks. The front seven needs to improve next season.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
This may come as a surprise after the team signed defensive tackle Geno Atkins to a mega-deal at the start of the 2013 season and then last offseason extended veteran Domata Peko through 2016, but I think it's fair to say the perception of the Bengals' defensive line has changed since that time. The run defense was nonexistent for stretches, and Atkins wasn't quite the pocket-disrupting force we saw before his 2013 ACL injury. The Bengals relied heavily on both players from a snap-count standpoint, but adding an impact player like Suh to a team that needs to get back to business defending the run (which dropped from fifth to 20th in the NFL from 2013 to 2014) makes some sense. For a defense that runs through its line, Suh would make the Bengals, who have over $30 million in cap space, scary. Cincinnati doesn't normally spend big on outside free agents, so this would buck a trend.
4. Chicago Bears
Schefter reported that the Bears would be among the teams with interest in Suh, and the fit makes sense. Veteran Jeremiah Ratliff had a nice bounce-back season in 2014, but he has just one year left on his deal. The team drafted a pair of defensive tackles in Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton last year, the latter of whom adds some pass-rushing juice from the interior. But Suh would be a difference-maker for a defense that needs a facelift at all three levels. The Bears will soon have a new head coach, and no matter who it is, he'd likely relish the chance to coach Suh.
5. Detroit Lions
It may be unlikely, but clearly Suh would be a dominant force if he returned to Detroit. A long-term deal would likely have to be led by a low 2015 cap number. When the Saints signed coveted safety Jairus Byrd last offseason, they structured his contract with a low cap number for the first season ($3.5 million), accomplished in part through a significant signing bonus, a minimal base salary in 2014 and then a large roster bonus in 2015 ($6 million).
Notes
• Offensive versus defensive backgrounds among head coaches: Head coaches are responsible for overseeing all facets of the operation, but we often associate their backgrounds with one side of the ball or the other. In scanning the current head coaches, it came to my attention that the NFC East has four coaches with offensive backgrounds: Tom Coughlin (Giants), Jason Garrett (Cowboys), Jay Gruden (Washington) and Chip Kelly (Eagles). Ravens head coach John Harbaugh's background primarily revolves around special teams, but he also took on defensive backs coach duties during his final year with the Eagles before being hired by Baltimore. If one includes Harbaugh, the entire AFC North has coaches with defensive backgrounds: Marvin Lewis (Bengals), Mike Pettine (Browns) and Mike Tomlin (Steelers) included.
• A Cleveland Browns coaching tree: While recording the Football Today podcast with colleague Matt Williamson this week, I learned something that stuck out: The 2004 Cleveland Browns had two coaches responsible for overseeing their secondary: Chuck Pagano and Todd Bowles. Pagano, of course, is the head coach of the Colts, who play in the AFC championship this weekend, while Bowles was just pegged as the Jets' head coach. That was certainly a lot of knowledge inside of the defensive backs meeting room.
