Ball or Bernard, PPR better pick??

[wilwhite]

Hint: Knowshon Moreno got 1586 and 13 last year.

 

[kramer1]

Hint: Knowshon Moreno got 1586 and 13 last year.

It's ridiculously close, isn't it?

I think with the injury to Marvin Jones, the new emphasis on running the ball more (a more controlled offense for Dalton), the fact that Denver has more options to catch a pass, etc that Gio wins in the end. It's close, though. Real close. Flip a coin.

 

[tlance]

It's ridiculously close, isn't it?

I think with the injury to Marvin Jones, the new emphasis on running the ball more (a more controlled offense for Dalton), the fact that Denver has more options to catch a pass, etc that Gio wins in the end. It's close, though. Real close. Flip a coin.

I think Wil's point is that Moreno isn't even a good runner and he point up those numbers. Ball's upside is off the charts.

 

[wilwhite]

Thought I'd bump this with an interesting stat: the Bengals had the 8th-most rushing attempts last season - 48 more than the league average.

 

[Microwahevo]

So here's how it all panned out. I had the 2nd pick as well as 8 of the first 50 picks(I did some trading last season for picks). My keeper was Rodgers. Here's my draft:

QB-Rodgers(keeper)
QB-RG3
RBs-Ball, Jennings, Rice, TRich
WRs-Nelson, Cruz, Maclin, Cooks, Evans
TEs-Vernon Davis, Ebron
Def-Panthers
K-Prater(Will be scooping up a new one)

We only start 2 rbs and 2 wrs and it's a ppr league.

I think my squad will compete and I have a competent backup should Rodgers go down again(barring RG3 staying healthy). My backup rbs are meh, but if Rice can return to old form I'm good.

 

[wilwhite]

I think Maclin will do well for you. Love Ball, but not digging your RBs after that. If you're right on Rice you're in good shape, but if you're wrong RB2 could be a weak spot.

 

[Microwahevo]

Yeah most of the top backs were either kept or taken after me. I'm definitely looking to trade for one.

 

[averagejoe]

Might be comparing apples and apples here. I like Gio simply based on OC Hue Jackson. But there isn't much to dislike about Ball's situation either, starting with his QB Manning. Here's all of Manning's years and where his lead RB ranked in fantasy:

1998 Faulk ranked 3rd
1999 Edgerrin ranked 2nd
2000 Edge ranked 2nd
2001 Edge ranked 31st
2002 Edge ranked 24th
2003 Edge ranked 10th
2004 Edge ranked 6th
2005 Edge ranked 5th
2006 Addai ranked 11th
2007 Addai ranked 5th
2008 Addai ranked 37th
2009 Addai ranked 9th
2010 Addai ranked 43rd
2012 McGahee ranked 26th
2013 Moreno ranked 5th

That's an average rank of 14.6 for all of you mathematicians out there.

 

[jarntt]

Tough call. This is more Ball's sweet spot IMO than comparing him to Charles and AP. I take Gio, but am very concerned about the rookie taking goal line carries regardless of what the Bengal fans here are saying. I also see almost no role for BGE this year. He may make the team, but I don't see him contributing. He just isn't very good. He seems perfectly made for that role and If I am Cincy I'm protecting Bernard where I can too. I wasn't a huge Bernard fan until later in the year. But after watching him more I was just so damn impressed with his ability in space. I think he is getting better and even with a 2nd rounder in the mix I think he is a very good play this year.

 

[jarntt]

This is the more pertinent comparison to me. I sure am not going to use Faulk or James' production as an indicator of what he may do.

2006 Addai ranked 11th
2007 Addai ranked 5th
2008 Addai ranked 37th
2009 Addai ranked 9th
2010 Addai ranked 43rd
2012 McGahee ranked 26th
2013 Moreno ranked 5th

 

[Bridgeburner]

Ball. He'll get more touches in a much better offense.

 

[averagejoe]

Ball. He'll get more touches in a much better offense.

Caution! Bengals under Gruden had 481 rushing attempts last season. While the Broncos only had 461 rushing attempts.

 

[wilwhite]

...and the 2011 Raiders only had 466 under Hue.

(who was the previous RB coach and current OC when the Bengals spent a 2nd-round pick on Hill)

 

[averagejoe]

...and the 2011 Raiders only had 466 under Hue.

(who was the previous RB coach and current OC when the Bengals spent a 2nd-round pick on Hill)

Ouch. But the 2011 Raiders called 990 total offensive plays, while the 2013 Bengals called 1068 plays. Even with that, the 2011 Hue Jackson led Raiders rushed 47% of the time, while the 2013 Bengals rushed 45% of the time.

 

[averagejoe]

And let me just add that the addition of Hill (perhaps encouraged by OC Jackson as you eluded to) only adds validity to the run-first philosophy that the Bengals want to employ. Cincy apparently realized that if they are going to lean on Gio, then they needed to add depth to the backfield, given the age of the law firm.

 

[wilwhite]

Not quite fair, though because the numbers are skewed by non-RBs running. Here are the actual RB plays.

RB Plays By Team, Regular Season

2010 Raiders: 411 carries, 90 receptions
2011 Raiders: 402 carries, 85 receptions

2013 Bengals: 390 carries, 60 receptions

2012 Broncos: 442 carries, 64 receptions
2013 Broncos: 423 carries, 92 receptions

...and I think Hue really likes Hill.

 

[wilwhite]

I do think the Bengals will have a higher percentage of running plays this year, and lots of running on first down. But that approach eats clock, so I think they run far fewer plays than last year.

I think from a football perspective the Bengals O will be outstanding. But from a fantasy perspective I think Bernard may even take a step back, but Hill won't quite be startable either.

 

[averagejoe]

Ruh-roh...

According to Bengals.com's Geoff Hobson, "it looks like (Giovani) Bernard and (Jeremy) Hill could both get about 200 attempts" on the ground this season. Rotoworld: Hobson notes that Hill "changed the tenor" of Cincinnati's third preseason game against Arizona, and expects the rookie's "power running" to be a particular "boon" against division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Hobson also wonders if BenJarvus Green-Ellis may have played his final game as a Bengal. Clearly the best inside runner on the Bengals' roster, Hill continues to be severely undervalued at his mid-10th-round ADP. If Gio only winds up with 200 carries, it's going to be difficult to reach the 300 touches many have projected him for.

 

[wilwhite]

Yeah... my guess is it ends up 220 carries for Gio and 60 passes, and 180 carries for Hill with 35 passes (one thing I noticed in the stats is that Hue seems to love the dump-off to the RB, and both these guys look like they have great hands).

So I think Gio will get around 1300 all-purpose yards and 12 TDs, and Hill around 1000 with 9 TDs.

But I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hill ends up dominating the snaps, which would just about switch those totals - except Hill might be get more than 12 TDs in that case - and drastically affect their relative values.

 

[jarntt]

I think some type of a time share is a good idea to protect Bernard, but it won't be anywhere near a 50/50 split