Awards

[calsnowskier]

I am surprised this has not been brought up yet...

MLB has changed the announcement process for the annual awards this year. They will have a presentation ceremony with the top few finalists of each award, kinda like the Heisman announcement.

NL ROY
Harper - Wsh *
Frazier - Cin
Miley - Arz **

AL ROY
Trout - LAA *
Cespedes - Oak
Darvish - Tex

NL MOY
Bochy - SF **
Baker - Cin
Johnson - Wsh *

AL MOY
Melvin - Oak
Showalter - Bal *
Ventura - ChW

NL CY
Dickey - NYM *
Gonzalez - Wsh
Kershaw - LAD

AL CY
Price - TB
Weaver - LAA *
Verlander - Det

NL MVP
Posey - SF *
Braun - Mil
Headley - SD
McCutchen - Pit
Molina - StL

AL MVP
Cabrera - Det *
Trout - LAA
Beltre - Tex
Hamilton - Tex
Cano - NYY

* = Who I believe WILL win
** = Who I believe SHOULD win, if different

 

[Heathbar012]

I am surprised this has not been brought up yet...

MLB has changed the announcement process for the annual awards this year. They will have a presentation ceremony with the top few finalists of each award, kinda like the Heisman announcement.

NL ROY
Harper - Wsh *
Frazier - Cin
Miley - Arz **

AL ROY
Trout - LAA *
Cespedes - Oak
Darvish - Tex

NL MOY
Bochy - SF **
Baker - Cin
Johnson - Wsh *

AL MOY
Melvin - Oak
Showalter - Bal *
Ventura - ChW

NL CY
Dickey - NYM *
Gonzalez - Wsh
Kershaw - LAD

AL CY
Price - TB
Weaver - LAA *
Verlander - Det

NL MVP
Posey - SF *
Braun - Mil
Headley - SD
McCutchen - Pit
Molina - StL

AL MVP
Cabrera - Det *
Trout - LAA
Beltre - Tex
Hamilton - Tex
Cano - NYY

* = Who I believe WILL win
** = Who I believe SHOULD win, if different

Looks correct to me. Though, that NL ROY race will be/was? very close. You could get your SHOULD, or Frazier could sneak in. Also, it's interesting to note that there isn't a single pitcher up for MVP in either league. I don't necessarily think that there should be, but it is rare to not have an ace mentioned with the Top 10 most valuable ballplayers in a season.

 

[SFGRTB]

Awards week has gotten me thinking back about Posey again. Guy played 159 games this year including the playoffs and 130 in the squat. In the offseason we were hoping he'd play 100-120 games total (<100 catching). What a boss. If he's not MVP somethings wrong with the writers noggins.

 

[SFGRTB]

So far, Trout wins unanimously. Harper barley edges Miley.

 

[SFAnthem]

Congratulations to RA Dickey, well deserved Cy Young award

David Price takes the AL Cy

 

[calsnowskier]

I am surprised this has not been brought up yet...

MLB has changed the announcement process for the annual awards this year. They will have a presentation ceremony with the top few finalists of each award, kinda like the Heisman announcement.

NL ROY
Harper - Wsh *
Frazier - Cin
Miley - Arz **

AL ROY
Trout - LAA *
Cespedes - Oak
Darvish - Tex

NL MOY
Bochy - SF **
Baker - Cin
Johnson - Wsh *

AL MOY
Melvin - Oak
Showalter - Bal *
Ventura - ChW

NL CY
Dickey - NYM *
Gonzalez - Wsh
Kershaw - LAD

AL CY
Price - TB
Weaver - LAA *
Verlander - Det

NL MVP
Posey - SF *
Braun - Mil
Headley - SD
McCutchen - Pit
Molina - StL

AL MVP
Cabrera - Det *
Trout - LAA
Beltre - Tex
Hamilton - Tex
Cano - NYY

* = Who I believe WILL win
** = Who I believe SHOULD win, if different

I am 4-2 so far. The two I missed (Melvin and Price) I think that the winners were well deserved, so I am OK with them. AL MVP MAY go to Trout, but Miggy won the Trip Crown. I think that holds enough historical weight that he takes it.

 

[SFGRTB]

I heard that Trout won, via I-forget-where-I-heard-that-but-it-wasn't-the-ROTY-they-were-talking-about

 

[msgkings322]

I am 4-2 so far. The two I missed (Melvin and Price) I think that the winners were well deserved, so I am OK with them. AL MVP MAY go to Trout, but Miggy won the Trip Crown. I think that holds enough historical weight that he takes it.

Dude, if Cabrera doesn't win it's the worst MVP pick ever. What the fuck else do you have to do besides win the TRIPLE CROWN while leading your team to the playoffs to beat a rookie who didn't even get his team in?

 

[calsnowskier]

Dude, if Cabrera doesn't win it's the worst MVP pick ever. What the fuck else do you have to do besides win the TRIPLE CROWN while leading your team to the playoffs to beat a rookie who didn't even get his team in?

It comes down to saber. If saber has taken over the vote, than Trout may get it from his WAR. Neither of Timmeh's wins, nor King's win was traditional. All three of those CY awards had HEAVY saber factors involved.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Dude, if Cabrera doesn't win it's the worst MVP pick ever. What the fuck else do you have to do besides win the TRIPLE CROWN while leading your team to the playoffs to beat a rookie who didn't even get his team in?

In the past, guys with the triple crown whose team went to the post season have always won. (Of course, back then it wasn't the 10 team circus it is now : it was just two teams, the NL and AL leaders.)

BUT, winning the triple crown doesn't always get you the MVP (if your team didn't make the post-season). Also, just because your team was waaaay down in the standings doesn't mean you automatically wouldn't win if you had the triple crown.

Yr Trip crown { // MVP, if different }

33 Jimmie Foxx (A's)
33 Chuck Klein (Phillies) // Carl Hubbell (NYG)
34 Lou Gehrig (NYY) // Mickey Cochrane (Tigers)
37 Joe Medwick (StL)
42 Ted Williams (BoSox) // Joe Gordon (NYY)
47 Ted Williams (BoSox) // DiMaggio (NYY)
56 Mantle (NYY)
66 Frank Robinson (O's)
67 Yaz (BoSox)


33 (Klein/Hubbell) is understandable in that there was no Cy Young award at the time, and Hubbell led the league in wins, ERA, complete game shutouts, IP, and WHIP. And the Giants won the NL pennant, while the Phillies had almost the worst record in the NL (30 games behind the Giants).

Gehrig got hosed in '34. He ended up FIFTH in MVP voting! Cochrane wasn't anywhere close to Gehrig's production, in 150 fewer ABs. Yes, the Tigers won the AL pennant, but the yankees were in 2nd place.

'42 and '47 were both royal hose jobs. In '42, not only did Williams have the triple crown, but he also led the league in runs scored, walks, (obviously OBP), SLG, and total bases. Gordon led the league in two categories : Ks and GDP. The Yankees won the pennant, Boston was in 2nd place. In '47, Williams AGAIN had the triple crown, and AGAIN also led the league in runs scored, walks, (obviously OBP), SLG, and total bases. And he again lost to a Yankee. The Yankees won the AL pennant, BOS was in 3rd place. But then the voters (i.e., sports writers) hated Ted.

In 33, Foxx's team didn't win the pennant (third in AL)
In 37, Medwick's team didn't win the pennant (4th in NL)
In 56, 66, and 67 MVP's team won their league (and he had triple crown)

 

[calsnowskier]

Great research (as always), but I think you can throw all of that out the window with this situation.

All of those trip crowns were done at a time were it was relatively common-place. In a span of 34 years, it was done 9 times. Miggy did it for the first time in 45 years. HUGE difference. If Trout did not have the MONSTER (non-Bonds variety) WAR season, there would not be any discussion.

I am just curious to see how deep saber has penetrated into the beat writer community.


Edit:

This post kind of made me look like a saber-hater.

I am not.

I think it absolutely has it's place. The ad-nauseum discussions on saber are absolutely beneficial on the whole. I think the saber-voters got it right in '08 and '09 for Timmeh and '10 for King. But if Trout takes it from Miggy, that will, in my opinion, mean they have their blinders on.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

I actually want to see Trout win MVP.

 

[calsnowskier]

I actually want to see Trout win MVP.

Saber geek

 

[msgkings322]

Saber geek

Actually he's just a younger guy, old school metrics mean less.

On the radio I heard that Nate Silver wrote a piece on this, his basic take was if Trout wins it's not just a SABR thing, it means they are factoring in defense and baserunning on top of just hitting. Trout is elite at everything players do, Cabrera is just an awesome hitter.

I still think Miggy deserves it but would be less ticked after thinking about Silver's point.

 

[gp956]

I actually want to see Trout win MVP.

I'm not sure who will win, but Trout was clearly the better player in 2012 - and that's after discounting WAR entirely.

 

[gp956]

Actually he's just a younger guy, old school metrics mean less.

On the radio I heard that Nate Silver wrote a piece on this, his basic take was if Trout wins it's not just a SABR thing, it means they are factoring in defense and baserunning on top of just hitting. Trout is elite at everything players do, Cabrera is just an awesome hitter.

I still think Miggy deserves it but would be less ticked after thinking about Silver's point.

Nate Silver is correct. The differences is defense and baserunning is so large, you really don't need to consult metrics to conclude that Trout contributed to run creation/prevention at a higher rate.

If Miggy wins, it will be for the weight given to "taking" his team to the playoffs and the cachet of the triple crown.

 

[filosofy29]

On the radio I heard that Nate Silver wrote a piece on this, his basic take was if Trout wins it's not just a SABR thing, it means they are factoring in defense and baserunning on top of just hitting. Trout is elite at everything players do, Cabrera is just an awesome hitter.

Nate Silver is for Andrew McCutchen???

 

[Heathbar012]

Great research (as always), but I think you can throw all of that out the window with this situation.

All of those trip crowns were done at a time were it was relatively common-place. In a span of 34 years, it was done 9 times. Miggy did it for the first time in 45 years. HUGE difference. If Trout did not have the MONSTER (non-Bonds variety) WAR season, there would not be any discussion.

I am just curious to see how deep saber has penetrated into the beat writer community.


Edit:

This post kind of made me look like a saber-hater.

I am not.

I think it absolutely has it's place. The ad-nauseum discussions on saber are absolutely beneficial on the whole. I think the saber-voters got it right in '08 and '09 for Timmeh and '10 for King. But if Trout takes it from Miggy, that will, in my opinion, mean they have their blinders on.

Agree 100% with all of this.

 

[msgkings322]

Only rookies ever to win MVP: Ichiro in 2001 and Fred Lynn 1975

 

[tzill]

I'm not sure who will win, but Trout was clearly the better player in 2012 - and that's after discounting WAR entirely.

Dave Cameron nails it:

...this vote really has nothing to do with WAR. WAR is essentially a proxy in this whole thing, just like cell phone usage is a proxy in presidential politics. Young voters tend to use cell phones, and young voters tend to vote for democrats, but young voters are not voting for democrats because they own cellphones. In the same way, young voters tend to prefer Mike Trout, and young voters tend to like WAR, but they’re not preferring Mike Trout simply because he has a higher WAR. They’re preferring Mike Trout because they’ve discarded the ideas that an MVP has to come from a playoff team and that RBIs are useful measures of a player’s value.

Without those two boxes to check, Cabrera’s MVP case falls apart. Team divisional placement — I can’t even call it team wins, as I originally wrote it, because the Angels won more games than the Tigers this year — and RBIs are the foundation of Cabrera’s case. Those of us who have an affinity for WAR generally don’t put a lot of stock in those things as measures of value. People who have distaste for WAR generally do put a lot of stock in those things. And, just as is the case pretty much every year, the winner will be decided based on how many voters still believe in the value of RBIs and whether a team makes the playoffs or not.

This debate has been framed as WAR vs Traditional Stats. But it’s really not that at all. No one who would vote for Mike Trout simply looked at the WAR leaderboards and decided that it was case closed. No one who voted for Miguel Cabrera looked at the WAR leaderboards and decided to vote for Cabrera to stick it to the nerds. The AL MVP is not a war on WAR. It’s a continuation of the same argument we’ve been having as long as I’ve followed baseball. And until we come to some kind of agreement on RBIs and whether an MVP can come from a non-playoff team, we’ll continue to have these same arguments every winter.

Basically, you either think RBIs are a valuable measuring stat or you don't. I don't think too many people actually trot out the "carried his team to the playoffs" argument considering the Angels finished with a better record in a much better division.

I don't put so much stock in RBIs, so for me it's Trout.