AFC Championship Game Week Thread

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ESPN:

"the Patriots certainly have a history when it comes to pounding away at the Broncos defense.

Especially if the Patriots believe they can find some room against some of the Broncos' specialty packages on defense, including the nickel (five defensive backs). Last season the Patriots pounded out 251 rushing yards against the Broncos on 54 carries in a 31-21 New England win. The Patriots gained 140 of those yards (56%) on runs against the Broncos' nickel package out of a warp speed no-huddle offense that kept the Broncos from getting themselves out of the personnel grouping or making any substitutions in it.

In that game the Patriots kept the Broncos in the nickel, even on early downs. New England ran the ball 21 times on first down against the Broncos nickel look -- 14 of those were in the first half.

Earlier this season, the Patriots choose to run the ball, at least some, against the Broncos nickel package. In the first three quarters of the Nov. 24 game -- which New England won 34-31 in overtime -- the Patriots had 65 of their first 87 rushing yards (75%) against the Broncos' nickel package.

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However, it will take at least some adjustment for the Patriots if they choose to try to pound away at some of the Broncos' specialty looks on defense. Del Rio hasn't traditionally answered with the Broncos' nickel or dime packages until offenses go to three wide receivers in the formation.

But over the past three games, the core of the run-first look from New England, the Patriots opened in a two-tight end look against the Ravens and opened games against the Bills as well as the Colts with a two-back look. The Broncos have been better defending the run out of their base 4-3 defense."

 

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Broncos defensive tackle Terrance Knighton:

"Ridley...he's more of a threat...with his speed. Blount will come in there and hit it downhill. ... Then they've got (running back Shane) Vereen, who comes in, who can line up at receiver and line up in the backfield. It's tricky."

 

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Broncos defensive end Shaun Phillips:

"physically (the Patriots) are getting after people, they're winning the battle in the trenches and running the ball right at people with Blount doing a large portion of the running. ... But we know they can come right at you, come right at you and then try to take advantage of you and put the ball down the field (with the pass), too. We know it's a challenge and we have to be up to the challenge."

 

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Lindy's Sports:

Matchup to watch – Patriots Pro Bowl CB Aqib Talib vs. Broncos Pro Bowl WR Demaryius Thomas — Thomas is the best of the Broncos’ recievers. He’s a big-bodied, big-play receiver. That’s a style of opponent that Talib generally does well against, but a lingering hip injury could be a factor (Talib has struggled with hip problems on and off throughout the season)

 

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Lindy's Sports:

Expect Brady to test Champ Bailey's lateral agility and explosiveness, which have been problematic since the initial injury (Bailey has been dealing with injuries this season beginning with injuring his foot during the preseason and re-aggravating it during the season)

 

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Lindy's Sports:

Denver coach John Fox rests on the M.O. of taking away the run, but that invites QB Tom Brady to take aim at a suspect secondary. ... When handing off to Blount, the Patriots are likely to spread the field with targets, giving the 250-pounder plenty of room up the middle. The decision for Broncos defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio is whether to use three safeties or two linebackers in nickel personnel. That leaves the burden of containing Blount and preventing his runs from reaching the second level on defensive tackles Terrance Knighton and Sylvester Williams (Kevin Vickerson had a season-ending hip injury at New England)

 

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Tom King, a New England sportswriter who has spent 25-plus years covering the New England Patriots:

(note that he doesn't seem to realize that Quentin Jammer isn't the Bronco's only option at CB)

Can the Broncos defense handle the Patriots offense? Here’s someone who Mile Highly doubts it.

The Broncos are in trouble, and they probably know it. Denver’s only chance against the Patriots is to get to Brady, who will likely pick up the tempo with a no-huddle attack. Once the Chargers forced the issue and opened up their offense, they had the Broncos back on their heels. They should have done it earlier.

The Brady-Manning hype has already started and will continue all week. But it’s not Brady against Manning, it’s Brady against Quentin Jammer, whom he should pick on quite easily. Cornerback Chris Harris Jr. had to leave the game Sunday with an injury and that’s not a good sign for Denver.

The Broncos can’t afford to struggle offensively next Sunday. The Patriots won’t.

 

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Peter Schrager, Senior NFL Writer for FOX Sports:

I was almost more impressed with the Patriots’ walloping of the defending champion Ravens in a nationally televised showdown in Baltimore back in Week 16 than the comeback win over Denver a few weeks earlier. The Baltimore game showed me a different side of the Patriots. They didn’t just beat the Ravens that day, in a game that would have catapulted Baltimore into a simple “win and in” situation the following week, but they beat the living daylights out of them. I was in that Patriots locker room afterwards. A different team would be laughing, joking around with Division Champion hats on. But after the 41-7 thrashing, the Patriots kind of went about their business, got dressed and boarded the buses. They knew they hadn’t won anything, yet. The same could be said for their performance last week versus Indianapolis. Business as usual.
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This team isn’t going softly into the night as some liner note to Peyton Manning’s swan song. They’re going to come out hitting and they’re going to come out on top...And in the locker room afterwards? The Patriots barely even smile. The Pick: Patriots 33, Broncos 27

 

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ESPN:

"According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Patriots have averaged 5.8 yards per rush and 200.3 yards per game inside the tackles the past three games. And Blount had 146 rush yards before contact, so this O-line is simply moving defenders out of the way."

 

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ESPN:

"According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Patriots have averaged 5.8 yards per rush and 200.3 yards per game inside the tackles the past three games. And Blount had 146 rush yards before contact, so this O-line is simply moving defenders out of the way."

Now I do believe the Pats have found something with their rushing offense but let's not act like they faced the cream of the crop while doing it. We are talking bottom 3rd defenses against the run in those games except Baltimore.

 

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ESPN Stats and Info:

With a win on Sunday, Bill Belichick (19-8) would match Tom Landry (20-16) for the most postseason wins by a coach in NFL history.

 

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ESPN Stats and Info:

Blount is averaging 130 rush yards per game inside the tackles since the start of Week 16, which is not only more than any other player, but also more than 28 of 31 other teams.

Denver DT Terrance Knighton (#94) has been on the field for 70 percent of first and second-down rushing attempts the Broncos have faced this season, and the Broncos have allowed 3.5 yards per rush on those plays. That would rank second in the league on first or second down. When Knighton is off the field, Denver’s 5.2 yards per rush would rank as the second worst.

 

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ESPN Stats and Info:

"New England practically begged the Broncos to run the football in Week 12. Denver had 47 rushes against six or fewer defenders in the box, 14 more than any other team had in a game in the last six years."

Does NE do that again?

 

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ESPN Stats and Info:

"The Broncos have been terrible this year against slot receivers, which is basically almost all of the wideout options that Brady has"

 

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ESPN:

"According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Patriots have averaged 5.8 yards per rush and 200.3 yards per game inside the tackles the past three games. And Blount had 146 rush yards before contact, so this O-line is simply moving defenders out of the way."

In their first 14 games this season, the Patriots ranked sixth in the NFL on inside rushes (4.8 yards per rush).

Since Week 16, New England ranks second, at 5.8 yards per interior rush, while gaining aleague-high 200.3 yards per game on such carries over that span.

 

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Denver allowed the NFL’s second-fewest yards per rush on carries up the middle during the regular season and hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown on a carry between the tackles since Week 14 against the Titans.

 

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Over his last three games, only Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch has averaged more yards after contact per game than LeGarrette Blount's 44.7.

 

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Denver Post:

Brady is 7-0 against Jack Del Rio. Brady's per game stats vs Del Rio...

REGULAR SEASON
2003 - 2 TD 0 INT 103.6 rating
2006 - 1 TD 0 INT 97.1 rating
2009 - 4 TD 0 INT 149.0 rating
2012 - 1 TD 0 INT 104.6 rating
2013 - 3 TD 0 INT 107.4 rating

PLAYOFFS
2005 - 3 TD 0 INT 116.4 rating
2007 - 3 TD 0 INT 141.4 rating

"He's a smart guy," said Del Rio