Active hall of famers

[DragonfromTO]

Well, yes and no... Speed will always make you more likely to score, but generally after the 5 hitter we are not talking about a good hitter... Chances are much more likely that they will not get that hit to score you... so you are really hoping that the base runner was able to get to 3rd before there is 2 outs... Which is a very low percentage.

A top of the order guy only has to move into scoring position, and the "BETTER" hitters will be able to get the baserunner home much more efficiently...

IMO, the trick in baseball is to maximize the abilities of your BEST players... And having men in running position for your Best hitters as often as possible is the way to do that...

When evaluating the baserunner's impact the question is the difference, how much he increased his chances of scoring. The runner on base for the 7-8-9 hitters obviously has a lower chance of scoring than the runner on base for 2-3-4 but the difference between being on 1st and being on 2nd is usually greater in the first situation than the second.

Let's try a simple example to illustrate what I'm talking about. Last year Edwin Encarnacion batted 4th for the Blue Jays and was a much better hitter overall than Ryan Goins, who batted mostly 8th and 9th. Better average, better power, better at everything. Let's assume for simplicity that all singles will score the runner from 2B and all doubles will score the runner from 1B (I suspect that this simplification actually hurts my argument but fuck it).

If I'm on first base my probability of getting knocked in during an EE plate appearance is basically equal to the probability of him getting an extra base hit, around 0.112. If I am on second base this rises to the probability of him getting any kind of hit, roughly 0.234. This gives us a net gain of about 0.122.

Similarly, if I am on first base my probability of getting knocked in during a Goins PA is only about 0.058. But if I can get to second base this probability rises all the way to 0.196, giving us a net gain of 0.138. So although my odds of scoring are always better with EE at the plate than Goins (duh) I seem to improve my odds of scoring more by stealing second with Goins at the plate than I do by stealing second with Encarnacion at the plate.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I don't know what the standard for "standout" is, but he was pretty good. Won 3 Gold Gloves, led the league in fielding percentage 3 times, led in CS% twice and was 33% for his career (average was 27%). Top 3 in the league in zone runs for five of his nine seasons.

Also, don't you kind of owe a new explanation for why JAWS overrates his candidacy if the one you gave isn't accurate and JAWS shows him as being right there?

Because it's still skewed by his hitting. his defence still ranks lower than every other catcher in the HOF.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Because it's still skewed by his hitting. his defence still ranks lower than every other catcher in the HOF.

You're kidding me, right? Where did this idea come from that Mauer was bad defensively? This smells a lot like Nichols' Law of Catcher Defense to me

Nichols Law Of Catcher Defense - BR Bullpen

 

[DragonfromTO]

Because it's still skewed by his hitting. his defence still ranks lower than every other catcher in the HOF.

So basically the argument is that JAWS (and presumably WAR) overvalues offensive contributions?

 

[navamind]

I think Ortiz is pretty borderline, but I don't see how he's any less qualified than relief pitchers (save for Eckersley, but that's mostly because he was a very good SP). Ortiz bats 3-4 times 140+ games a year. Relievers face 3-5 batters every, like, 3-4 days and generally pitch no more than 70 innings a year.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

You're kidding me, right? Where did this idea come from that Mauer was bad defensively? This smells a lot like Nichols' Law of Catcher Defense to me

Nichols Law Of Catcher Defense - BR Bullpen

Just comparing his numbers to the other guys who are in the HOF? You don't have to be bad defensively to trail in that regard to HOF'ers.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

So basically the argument is that JAWS (and presumably WAR) overvalues offensive contributions?

No, just Mauer's in this case (and I'm sure many others but this is who's being discussed).

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I think Ortiz is pretty borderline, but I don't see how he's any less qualified than relief pitchers (save for Eckersley, but that's mostly because he was a very good SP). Ortiz bats 3-4 times 140+ games a year. Relievers face 3-5 batters every, like, 3-4 days and generally pitch no more than 70 innings a year.

There is a huge difference though. But the biggest thing is that pitchers and hitters already get measured differently. RP do the same as SP, just at a smaller sample. A DH only hits.

Either player though needs to be special. I just don't see Ortiz to have done anything special. I would not call him a top 5 active hitter. If you are only going to hit you need to be better IMO.

 

[DragonfromTO]

No, just Mauer's in this case (and I'm sure many others but this is who's being discussed).

I'm not sure I understand why this would specifically be the case for Mauer while not being the case in general. It sounds a lot like "this metric rates him higher than where my subjective opinion had him so there must be something wrong"

 

[DragonfromTO]

Just comparing his numbers to the other guys who are in the HOF? You don't have to be bad defensively to trail in that regard to HOF'ers.

Yeah, cause Ernie Lombardi (for instance) was a real defensive genius.

What numbers are you referring to?

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I'm not sure I understand why this would specifically be the case for Mauer while not being the case in general. It sounds a lot like "this metric rates him higher than where my subjective opinion had him so there must be something wrong"

Just using dWAR.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Yeah, cause Ernie Lombardi (for instance) was a real defensive genius.

What numbers are you referring to?

Once again, using dWAR.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Just using dWAR.

I'm not sure I understand what this means here.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Once again, using dWAR.

It's a cumulative stat though, so it's going to favour guys with more time at the positon. Jerry Koosman has the same WAR as Sandy Koufax, but he wasn't as good a pitcher.

Here's a quote from Bill James about Lombardi's defense:

"Lombardi was so slow that his speed was a problem on defense, even at catcher. . . . Foul popups dropped a few feet from home plate, because he could not spring out of a crouch."

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

It's a cumulative stat though, so it's going to favour guys with more time at the positon. Jerry Koosman has the same WAR as Sandy Koufax, but he wasn't as good a pitcher.

Yes, but dWAR is different as it assumes the replacement player is league-average so Mauer being a career 2-win defensive player says to me he's nothing really special with the glove.

Disagree if you do so. I'm going to recuse myself from this because I've typed more words about Joe Mauer than I ever thought I would.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Yes, but dWAR is different as it assumes the replacement player is league-average so Mauer being a career 2-win defensive player says to me he's nothing really special with the glove.

Disagree if you do so. I'm going to recuse myself from this because I've typed more words about Joe Mauer than I ever thought I would.

You don't need to be "really special with the glove" to be great when you're hitting like he was though, you just need to be decent. And Mauer was certainly better than decent.

I mean, since we were discussing him as well I'd say that Yadi Molina wasn't/isn't "really special" with the bat, even just for a catcher. But he's so very good at the other side, just like Mauer was at the plate.

 

[scoutyjones2]

Brandon Phillips?

 

[chappee11]

The best postseason player of all time is not in. Don Larsen.

Don Larsen is the best postseason player of all-time? That couldn't be any more wrong.

 

[chappee11]

The point being that postseason alone does not get you into the HOF, as many Boston fans want to think with Ortiz. Jack Morris had some great postseason and some bad ones, but it was not enough to get him in.

Ortiz to the positive has 500 HRs, played most of his career on a high profile team, and his postseason helps.
To the negative he is indicted with steroids and was primarily a DH.

I don't have time right now to look at his stats.


IMHO Ortiz is borderline at best.

David Ortiz MIGHT be the best postseason player ever. He's definitely on the short list. He's won 3 titles and an ALCS MVP & World Series MVP along the way. Oh, by the way, he's hit 500+ HR's and finished in the top 5 for MVP voting 5 times. I'm not sure if the PED suspicions keep him out, but at least he was never suspended for it the way Arod was.

 

[obxyankeefan]

David Ortiz MIGHT be the best postseason player ever. He's definitely on the short list. He's won 3 titles and an ALCS MVP & World Series MVP along the way. Oh, by the way, he's hit 500+ HR's and finished in the top 5 for MVP voting 5 times. I'm not sure if the PED suspicions keep him out, but at least he was never suspended for it the way Arod was.

First off A Rod is not getting in until they allow other PED users in.

David Ortiz is no where near the best postseason player ever. He has had a number of clutch moments, but overall his numbers are good not great. Just looking at his BA in each series he has played in.

2002 231/313
2003 095/269
2004 545/387/308
2005 333
2007 714/292/333
2008 235/154
2009 083
2013 385/091/688

Just from those numbers you can see he has had some series where he was the difference and some series where Boston would have been better off with Rock playing.