A.J. Jenkins

[Jikkle]

A lot of young guys are ignorant of what you actually need to do to prepare your body to be in NFL shape so it doesn't bother me that he's not in shape right now.

All he needs to do is get with the strength and conditioning coaches, veteran teammates, and Jerry Rice and they'll teach him how to be ready physically for the NFL.

It's only a problem if he's genuinely lazy and doesn't want to put the work and effort in to being a great player. But considering Baalke and Harbaugh put a big emphasis in taking high character guys that love the game I don't think that's going to be an issue.

 

[Rvnight18]

Not to worried about it. If it is like this come training camp then i will be worried.

 

[Flyingiguana]

maybe rice will have to carry him up the hill

 

[mem49er]

maybe rice will have to carry him up the hill

Well, we know Alex couldn't toss him up there and Crabby would likely drop him.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Well, we know Alex couldn't toss him up there and Crabby would likely drop him.

smith would throw jenkins too high and crabtree would pop him up. jenkins would end up on the other side of the hill.

 

[TobyTyler]

i'm a troll? i'm a realist, just because u don't agree with me doesn't make me a troll.

I hate when people do that. I doubt Clyde really thinks you are a troll however. He just gets that way sometimes; especially when it concerns Alex Smith.

 

[TobyTyler]

Obviously you just open your mouth without a clue on the subject matter... Im just sayin

From time to time.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I hate when people do that. I doubt Clyde really thinks you are a troll however. He just gets that way sometimes; especially when it concerns Alex Smith.

i'd much rather be a gnome, they look cute and cuddly on lawns.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

a fade to ginn, that's on harbaugh.

Agreed. I hate the red zone package where Ginn is the only receiver. Just a travesty.

 

[Bemular]

How many TDs were dropped last year I wonder?

RV, there were 4 TD's dropped in the End Zone

Week 10 vs. NYG Crabtree on a 10-yard back shoulder/fade
Week 11 vs. ARI Edwards on a 4-yard corner route
Week 13 vs. StL Davis on a 40-yard Seam
Week 14 vs. ARI Ginn on a 4-yard back shoulder/fade

In addition to those 4 dropped TD's there were 6 additional passes thrown incomplete for various reasons. Each of those passes had from a better than a 50% to a 100% chance of being a TD as well.

There were also a couple highly probable TD passes to actual TD passes called back because of penalty.

All totaled we left at least 8-10 TD's on the table last year (not including the playoffs)

 

[MHSL82]

I went to every game last year and my seats are upper deck end zone so one of the few things I can see consistently is wide open receivers, and believe me Alex misses some wide open guys. Crabtree gets open more than people realize.

He also has a problem of missing the throw down the sideline, which everyone can see. He did get better as the season progressed however.

I'm sure he's missed more than his share of open receivers, just because I know Alex wasn't elite last year, but I dislike how it said "missing wide open receivers" as in "missing receivers that were so obviously the right choice in which any QB would have and should have completed by mere fact that the player ended up not being as covered as others." Let me explain:

• None of these guys were wide open at the time that Smith should have released the ball.The playbook/coaching staff may have indications on when Smith can trust that that receiver will end up as open as we later see him. This could still be the QBs fault; it's just not as obviously damning as some make it out to be.
• Some of these guys were wide open by the end of the play because Smith went to someone else or was clearly showing that he was going somewhere else. This might still be a problem of transparency/predictability on the part of the QB, but let's not pretend these players would be as wide open if Smith were throwing it to them (not others, which distracts players from this "wide open" player)- absent a few well disguised/designed plays.
• Plus, we fans see it differently than what you can see on the field and lay men see it differently than the professionals. When Alex sees it incorrectly from the coaches perspective, he messed up, but I will listen to them or reserve judgment to THAT degree ("wide open!!!"), not to fans in the crowd. For some reason people like saying, "dude, I was there, trust me." Maybe in general, but to the Nth degree. I'll accept that the player ended up being open and maybe there was a way the QB should have thrown it to him. This applies to every QB, not just Smith.
• One person's "open" is another person's "wide" open.

If Smith isn't following the play or his leads, that's on him. But this "wide open" receivers (versus "open") is exaggerative and a bit cause-and-effect.

 

[Bemular]

As Maiocco notes:

The leading receivers in the league still see a large number of passes even when coverage is rolled their way.

Crabtree hasn't shown that he deserves to see the ball regularly when he's doubled, but as we discussed ad nauseum after the playoffs, "open" to Alex Smith is not the same as "open" to Eli Manning and other elite QBs. If Crabtree played with a QB with better accuracy and more willing to take chances, he would put up better numbers.

Conversely, if Smith played with an elite WR who can win the ball, he would also put up better numbers. This is another part of that chicken-or-egg conversation. But Smith needs to do a better job of making plays when his guys aren't wide open. The fact that he's working on his mechanics suggests that he agrees.

Interesting post – here are some thoughts

First, wtf is this? "Crabtree hasn't shown that he deserves to see the ball regularly when he's doubled..."? Were you batting your eyelashes when you typed that?? Dude, Crabtree should be thrown to in double coverage exactly NEVER! Not irregularly, not once-in-a-while, not maybe - NEVER!

Second, your "open" to Alex/Eli, comment is based in pure speculation; it is important to clarify that fact. Im not saying there isn't some truth to it; however, after watching last season, especially the playoffs, whatever truth there may be in that assumption is very small.

Third, your seemingly blanket statement that all Crabtree needs is a more accurate QB willing to take more risks in order to put up better numbers, while sensible in theory isn't fully supported with the facts. Starting WR's have about a 25-35% chance of performing significantly better with a different or better QB.

How many former WR's from Smith's worst days as a QB went on to perform better with their new team? How did Chad Johnson do going from Palmer to Brady? You think the responsibility for a WR's performance falls too much on the QB.

Your analysis of why Smith is working on his mechanics seems rather presumptive. Smith is working on his mechanics which usually translates to improved quickness, power & accuracy. Those improvements usually translate to confidence, better protection; a better pass; quicker decisions; better timing; better use of the field, and better pass location for routes run in the intermediate range.

Considering our horrible 3rd down conversion rate last year and the fact that Kaepernick has the advantage in the intermediate range it makes perfect sense why Smith got naked for the guru. Where this may/should help Crabtree is the expectation that he will make his living in the intermediate range next season.

Regardless of Smith's improvements however, if Crabtree doesn't become better at beating man coverage or more reliable in tight coverage or less of a risk on jump balls then I don't see Crabtree increasing his #'s here or anywhere else.

To paraphrase something Troy Aikman once said, if your WR's can't beat man coverage and are thus putting the QB in a position to consistently have to force throws - then you need new receivers - not a new QB.

I think we have enough evidence to remove the C&E riddle from the Smith/Crabtree relationship.

 

[Bemular]

a fade to ginn, that's on harbaugh.

A stroke of pure genius if it had worked.

 

[Flyingiguana]

A stroke of pure genius if it had worked.

so is betting everything with a pair of 2s

 

[Bemular]

so is betting everything with a pair of 2s

LMAO!

 

[mem49er]

Does A.J. Jenkins complete 49ers' passing attack? - NFL.com

 

[Crimsoncrew]

First, wtf is this? "Crabtree hasn't shown that he deserves to see the ball regularly when he's doubled..."? Were you batting your eyelashes when you typed that?? Dude, Crabtree should be thrown to in double coverage exactly NEVER! Not irregularly, not once-in-a-while, not maybe - NEVER!

Not sure what you're disagreeing with there. I said Crabtree shouldn't see the ball when doubled.

Second, your "open" to Alex/Eli, comment is based in pure speculation; it is important to clarify that fact. Im not saying there isn't some truth to it; however, after watching last season, especially the playoffs, whatever truth there may be in that assumption is very small.

Textbook Bemular, here. You say my statement must be clarified, and then further obscure it while offering nothing in return.

Whether it's perception of a guy being "open" or not, Eli will throw into much narrower windows than Smith on a regular basis. It may be a confidence thing, it may be a physical ability thing, it may be something I haven't even considered. Whatever the reason, it is indisputable, and I saw absolutely nothing in the playoffs to change my opinion on that.

Third, your seemingly blanket statement that all Crabtree needs is a more accurate QB willing to take more risks in order to put up better numbers, while sensible in theory isn't fully supported with the facts. Starting WR's have about a 25-35% chance of performing significantly better with a different or better QB.

How many former WR's from Smith's worst days as a QB went on to perform better with their new team? How did Chad Johnson do going from Palmer to Brady? You think the responsibility for a WR's performance falls too much on the QB.

I can't speak to the percentages, but I doubt they mean much when considering individual situations. I believe that, all else being equal, Crabtree would be more successful with a more accurate QB who is willing to take more risks. Feel free to disagree.

As for receivers on the Niners who have flourished elsewhere, it's pretty small list. But for a while there, SF was where NFL receivers went to die. Brandon Lloyd has far surpassed his performance with the Niners, though it took a few years and arguably the right system to do so. Antonio Bryant blew away his totals with the Niners the year he left. Those are the only two starting-caliber receivers who have played with Smith and departed. Crabtree and Morgan have been the only semi-legit receivers with Smith since the injury. We'll see what Morgan does now that he's gone.

Your analysis of why Smith is working on his mechanics seems rather presumptive. Smith is working on his mechanics which usually translates to improved quickness, power & accuracy. Those improvements usually translate to confidence, better protection; a better pass; quicker decisions; better timing; better use of the field, and better pass location for routes run in the intermediate range.

I don't see how any of this addresses my point that Smith is working on his mechanics because he wants to be able to fit balls into tighter windows. If anything, it seems to support my statement.

Incidentally, I'm not really sure how improved mechanics improves protection. It lessens the pressure on the protectors, perhaps, but it has no direct effect on the protection itself.

Considering our horrible 3rd down conversion rate last year and the fact that Kaepernick has the advantage in the intermediate range it makes perfect sense why Smith got naked for the guru. Where this may/should help Crabtree is the expectation that he will make his living in the intermediate range next season.

I don't disagree with that.

Regardless of Smith's improvements however, if Crabtree doesn't become better at beating man coverage or more reliable in tight coverage or less of a risk on jump balls then I don't see Crabtree increasing his #'s here or anywhere else.

How many "jump balls" has Smith thrown to Crabtree? Not overthrows, but legit jump balls, where he puts air under it and lets his WR make a play. I can't remember many at all. I agree that Crabtree needs to prove that he's a more reliable target. I just happen to think his skill set isn't a great fit for Smith at QB.

As for increasing his numbers, that's hard to say. He's not likely to see 25% of the targets for the vast majority of NFL teams. That's a higher percentage than Megatron saw last year.

To paraphrase something Troy Aikman once said, if your WR's can't beat man coverage and are thus putting the QB in a position to consistently have to force throws - then you need new receivers - not a new QB.

Again, what is "beating" man coverage? Is it getting three steps on a guy in the open field, or creating two yards of separation at the right time? Crabtree hasn't shown he can do the former. He has done a pretty decent job of the latter.

I think we have enough evidence to remove the C&E riddle from the Smith/Crabtree relationship.

I disagree. Though if you feel Smith hasn't held his receivers back at all, that's fine by me.

 

[Bemular]

First, wtf is this? "Crabtree hasn't shown that he deserves to see the ball regularly when he's doubled..."? Were you batting your eyelashes when you typed that?? Dude, Crabtree should be thrown to in double coverage exactly NEVER! Not irregularly, not once-in-a-while, not maybe - NEVER!

Not sure what you're disagreeing with there. I said Crabtree shouldn't see the ball when doubled.

Not disagreeing - just having some fun with what seemed like a soft almost mushy politically correct tone.

Second, your "open" to Alex/Eli, comment is based in pure speculation; it is important to clarify that fact. Im not saying there isn't some truth to it; however, after watching last season, especially the playoffs, whatever truth there may be in that assumption is very small.

Textbook Bemular, here. You say my statement must be clarified, and then further obscure it while offering nothing in return.

Whether it's perception of a guy being "open" or not, Eli will throw into much narrower windows than Smith on a regular basis. It may be a confidence thing, it may be a physical ability thing, it may be something I haven't even considered. Whatever the reason, it is indisputable, and I saw absolutely nothing in the playoffs to change my opinion on that.

Yes, it is textbook Bemular because it is textbook Crimsoncrew. Look, I'm not trying to be harsh here, but this is just what you do. You will state as facts, claims so ridiculously exaggerated and/or impossible to prove they can be considered nearly dishonest.

Myself and others have called you on this before but instead of proving we are wrong for questioning your statement you simply try to make it our responsibility to prove your point. You remind me of a genius 3rd grader who plays dumb just long enough for the teacher to give him the answers.

There are a couple of inherit flaws with that strategy - One, this isn't 3rd grade; two, you're not a genius. No disrespect intended as I don't think any of us are, but this obsession you have with making ridiculous statements is hilarious.

Perhaps in the future instead of saying you're wrong or simply disagreeing with your claims, myself and others should just ask for your supporting evidence upfront.

In any event, I'm not going to give you the answers Crimson but I will tell you why your statements are seriously flawed.

First, your statements: "Open to Alex is not the same as open to Eli" & "Eli will throw into much narrower windows than Smith on a regular basis." require both film and statistical analysis. Here is what I'm talking about.

Of Smith's 445 passes, 59 or 13.3% were thrown into blanketed coverage, coverage as defined by the defender being from 0 to 1 yard from the receiver.

So, we can see right off the bat your claim that: "Eli will indisputably throw into much narrower windows than Smith" is not only disputable, it is 100% false. This is because you simply cannot get "narrower" than throwing to a receiver that has a defender draped on him.

In addition to the 59 passes thrown into blanketed coverage, 94 or 21.1% were thrown into tight coverage; coverage as defined by the defender being 1.1 to 2.5 yards from the receiver.

All totaled, 153 or 34.4% of Smiths 445 passes were thrown to receivers covered at a distance ranging from touching the receiver to 2.5 yards from the receiver.

I don't know how you are defining or quantifying "on a regular basis" but IMO, throwing passes to either blanketed or tightly covered receivers 1/3 of the time seems pretty regular to me.

Unless you have charted each of Manning’s 589 passes you have no way of knowing if Manning’s "regular basis" is higher or lower than Smiths "regular basis".

That said, however, if we apply some logic we can get an idea. If we think of well-covered completions as low YAC type completions then we can start to get a feel for this difference by looking at the YAC. For Smiths 71 completions into tight or blanketed coverage the median YAC was zero yards (average = 2.8)

If we apply this logic to their respective overall YAC as a percentage of total yards, the difference is a meaningless 2%. (Smith = 45%; Manning = 43%). From there we can look at completion %'s, YPC and factor in each QB's respective receivers and I think one could make a reasonable argument that the difference between the two is minimal if there is one at all.

Your analysis of why Smith is working on his mechanics seems rather presumptive. Smith is working on his mechanics which usually translates to improved quickness, power & accuracy. Those improvements usually translate to confidence, better protection; a better pass; quicker decisions; better timing; better use of the field, and better pass location for routes run in the intermediate range.

I don't see how any of this addresses my point that Smith is working on his mechanics because he wants to be able to fit balls into tighter windows. If anything, it seems to support my statement.

Incidentally, I'm not really sure how improved mechanics improves protection. It lessens the pressure on the protectors, perhaps, but it has no direct effect on the protection itself.

My statement does support your point and far beyond. As to your question about protection - protection is defined by any mechanism that aids in reducing pressures, hits, knockdowns & sacks.

The time it takes for each of those occurrences is measured in 10th's of seconds. Thus, if by improving his mechanics Smith reduces his snap to release time by even a couple 10th's of a second, he will improve his protection.

Regardless of Smith's improvements however, if Crabtree doesn't become better at beating man coverage or more reliable in tight coverage or less of a risk on jump balls then I don't see Crabtree increasing his #'s here or anywhere else.

How many "jump balls" has Smith thrown to Crabtree? Not overthrows, but legit jump balls, where he puts air under it and lets his WR make a play. I can't remember many at all. I agree that Crabtree needs to prove that he's a more reliable target. I just happen to think his skill set isn't a great fit for Smith at QB.

Crabtree had a couple vs. Detroit, one or two vs. Ari and one vs. NYG - all fails with one INT that was nullified by a offside penalty. I would imagine there have been others as well. Your skill set comment is interesting - I would be much more inclined to say his skill set is not (yet) a good match for our offense.

As for increasing his numbers, that's hard to say. He's not likely to see 25% of the targets for the vast majority of NFL teams. That's a higher percentage than Megatron saw last year.

I think there are few situations where Crabtree could go and see his yards production improve by more than 20%. I think Crabtree will always be a ~12/YPC type receiver. Where he can be most dangerous for us is on 3rd downs and in the red zone.

To paraphrase something Troy Aikman once said, if your WR's can't beat man coverage and are thus putting the QB in a position to consistently have to force throws - then you need new receivers - not a new QB.

Again, what is "beating" man coverage? Is it getting three steps on a guy in the open field, or creating two yards of separation at the right time? Crabtree hasn't shown he can do the former. He has done a pretty decent job of the latter.

Beating man coverage is much more complicated than what you described above. Crabtree's best move is his double move partly because he has a difficult time breaking the cushion of a DB playing off.

In press coverage he has at times been easily thrown off his route. (Which is what happened in Detroit on Smith's INT.) I don't think he stems particularly well and we have already discussed his less than stellar body control in tight coverage.

I think we have enough evidence to remove the C&E riddle from the Smith/Crabtree relationship.

I disagree. Though if you feel Smith hasn't held his receivers back at all, that's fine by me.

I said "the Smith/Crabtree relationship" - how did you interpret that to mean "the Smith & his other receiver's relationship"? By whatever interpretation I think Crabtree owns the bulk of the deficiency that exists between him and Smith. I am not at all exonerating Smith of his deficiencies; I'm just looking at all the evidence and making a call.

 

[MHSL82]

Of Smith's 445 passes, 59 or 13.3% were thrown into blanketed coverage, coverage as defined by the defender being from 0 to 1 yard from the receiver.

So, we can see right off the bat your claim that: "Eli will indisputably throw into much narrower windows than Smith" is not only disputable, it is 100% false. This is because you simply cannot get "narrower" than throwing to a receiver that has a defender draped on him.

In addition to the 59 passes thrown into blanketed coverage, 94 or 21.1% were thrown into tight coverage; coverage as defined by the defender being 1.1 to 2.5 yards from the receiver.

All totaled, 153 or 34.4% of Smiths 445 passes were thrown to receivers covered at a distance ranging from touching the receiver to 2.5 yards from the receiver.

I don't know how you are defining or quantifying "on a regular basis" but IMO, throwing passes to either blanketed or tightly covered receivers 1/3 of the time seems pretty regular to me.

Unless you have charted each of Manning’s 589 passes you have no way of knowing if Manning’s "regular basis" is higher or lower than Smiths "regular basis".

I am not disagreeing with the points or the stats, but where are you getting these stats? If you had to look them up (because none of us can have all of them memorized), couldn't you cut and paste them? If you have them for Smith, are there numbers that we can see about Manning? I seem to remember you also quoting scouting reports without providing the links, which is a bit frustrating for someone like me who wants to read further. We could, I suppose, copy and paste your quotes and links should come up, but if you already are on the page, could you post the links, too? Not saying that these are fabricated quotes or stats, just want to know further. I usually bookmark stat websites for reference; I'd love to add to my library. I'm also assuming that you aren't making this stuff on the spot; I give you too much benefit of the doubt to think otherwise.

 

[Bemular]

I am not disagreeing with the points or the stats, but where are you getting these stats? If you had to look them up (because none of us can have all of them memorized), couldn't you cut and paste them? If you have them for Smith, are there numbers that we can see about Manning? I seem to remember you also quoting scouting reports without providing the links, which is a bit frustrating for someone like me who wants to read further. We could, I suppose, copy and paste your quotes and links should come up, but if you already are on the page, could you post the links, too? Not saying that these are fabricated quotes or stats, just want to know further. I usually bookmark stat websites for reference; I'd love to add to my library. I'm also assuming that you aren't making this stuff on the spot; I give you too much benefit of the doubt to think otherwise.

Hey MHSL82, regarding the Kaepernick issue, I simply Googled the topic of discussion & copied/pasted the info - I knew there were plenty of links due to prior searches.

To your point, a simple copy/paste in Google or Bing would have taken you directly to the websites I extracted the information from. In the future I'll certainly try to remember to provide the link.

As for the stats, some of the stats came from ESPN; however, the charted stats are courtesy of a friend who does film analysis for Pro Football Focus and provides stats for other members of the media.

The database those stats come from is designed specifically for charting pass attempts, more specifically, each of the 49ers 519 pass attempts. Currently the database is 78 columns wide and growing depending upon demand - So, unfortunately copy pasting is not an option.

I appreciate the benefit of the doubt - I assure you it is not misplaced.