9th Level #1: Travis Zajac

[MCDevils]

Introduction:

Travis is an intriguing choice because there are so many aspects of his game that don’t appear on basic score sheets, making in-depth analysis of his game pretty important.

Let’s start with the basics. Zajac had a pretty rough year this season, failing to adjust to new line-mates, and was unable to build upon two excellent seasons prior. His point totals, +/-, PROD, and most of his other stats took a hit. At the same time, some stats stayed the same or improved; examples include FO%, ATOI, and takeaways.

In this post, you’re going to get quite a lot of metric based information, which I’m going to try my best to express in the fewest numbers possible. Lots of calculations and research went into these, and I hope you find it interesting. This is going to be a long one, but I think you’ll find the results thought-provoking.

NOTE: Almost no players had “statistically good” years (God smiled on you Elias). We obviously took half a season to start playing winning hockey, and a lot of stats look god awful. Because of this, it’s very important to look at past performance for players such as Zajac, Parise, Kovalchuk, Elias, etc, etc.​

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Basic Stats for Zajac:

Section 1: The Defensive Game

TOI Allocation:

Penalty Kill TOI​

One of the biggest reasons Zajac is allowed to eat so many minutes is his relatively stellar defensive play. Along with Parise and Elias, Zajac has essentially eliminated the need for dedicated “defensive players” and single faceted PK specialists such as Madden and Pandolfo. This season, Zajac was used more heavily than ever in all situations, including time on the PK.

From 09/10 to 10/11, Zajac saw his average time on the PK/g increase by nearly 20 seconds per game. That’s a substantial increase. He was also basically tied with Elias for the team lead in PK time amongst forwards. Zajac was used to kill penalties more than ever, a situation that arose with Parise’s absence.​

Takeaways​

Zajac led the team with a mammoth 60 takeaways and a team best takeaway/giveaway differential. 60 to 34. His takeaways were 33% higher than Elias (2nd best) at 45.
​

Quality of Competition:

QUALCOMP​

Zajac, as one of the team’s best defensive forwards, would be expected to faceoff against the other team’s toughest players. Shockingly, he’s 5th on the team in QualCOMP this season trailing Elias, Rolston, Zubrus, and even Kovalchuk by a very small amount.​

- The most interesting part of Qualcomp actually has to do with the Devils defensive strategy. Zajac and Parise obviously were the major components to both the offense and defense of this team, BUT with Parise out, Zajac was paired with Kovalchuk. Obviously, Kovalchuk isn’t the best defensively, so the Devils shifted Zajac out of the role he was normally filling, and had Elias’s line against the opponents top line.​

- This might be something the Devils want to continue in the future (matching Elias/Zubrus against the top opponents). There’s really two options here.​

- Match power against power (Zajac-Parise) against the top line for the opponents.

- Or Zajac-Parise need to play against what is likely the other team’s shutdown line. Personally, I feel this is the least desired option, because Zajac-Parise proved they can dominate games against opponents’ top lines.​

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Section 2: The Linemates.

This will be one of the shortest sections here because all the metrics indicate that Zajac is dominant when playing with Parise, and below average when playing with Kovalchuk. This isn’t a criticism on Kovalchuk, but Zajac obviously needs to focus more on back checking while paired with Kovy, and I think we can all agree their styles don’t mesh well.
​

- Notable decrease in Corsi+ while playing with Kovalchuk vs Parise.

- Zajac put up better numbers while playing against tougher opponents when playing with ZZPops. It’s critical to put him back into a situation where he can succeed.​

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Section 3: Faceoffs and Zone Starts

Faceoffs:

Zajac took a big step forward this season with his faceoff percentage, setting new career highs. He was essentially a Top 15 centerman in the league this year in that regard. Furthremore, most of the centers ahead of him are role players who specialize in faceoffs. Zajac is obviously relied upon to provide substantially more than that.​

- Zajac had a 55.3% winning percentage this season overall, but did struggle in some areas.​

Defensive Zone faceoffs:​

- Zajac was below 50% on these critical opportunities (could use some improvement)

- He was over 50% in the defensive and neutral zone on the Penalty Kill so he’s good in clutch shorthanded situations.​

Powerplay FO%:​

- One of the most important FO stats is his Powerplay FO%. He’s an absolute animal, winning over 66% of his opportunities on the Powerplay.​

Zajac’s UFO:​

- Ultimate Faceoff Percentage adjusts FO% to include the quality of the opponent the player is facing. Of the top 20 faceoff men in the league, Zajac was tied for the second hardest opponents, making his 56% overall very impressive.​

ZONE STARTS:

I was predicting an even distribution for Zajac because he plays well in all three zones, but I was surprised to learn that he’s starting in the offensive zone 56% of the time. That’s the highest on the team, which seems logical now, considering he was on the #1 line.​

- Travis also had one of the highest Offensive Zone Finish rates on the team, meaning he and Kovalchuk are generating offensive chances. This needs to continue.
​

 

[MCDevils]

Section 4: Offense

I left this section for last because it’s the worst news for Zajac. He took a tremendous plunge in the points department this season. However, it’s not too hard to figure out why.

First, Zajac’s powerplay time drastically decreased, but this wasn’t because he was playing poorly. The Devils PP was worse this season in terms of converting, but they also took a huge fall in powerplay opportunities. Here’s some interesting stats to consider.​

PP TOI​

- 08-09: 3:16 ppm/g behind Parise, Elias, Langenbrunner
- 09-10: 2:52 ppm/g behind Kovy, Parise, Langenbrunner
- 10-11: 2:34 ppm/g behind Parise, Langenbrunner, Kovy, Elias

NOTE: The Devils saw their powerplay opportunities drop from 159 to 142 to 114 from 08-09 to 10-11.​

Analysis:​

- Zajac’s powerplay production was increasing the two seasons prior to last year (15 to 21 points) but then fell to only 10. That 11 point drop accounts for nearly half of his point decrease.

- Another interesting thing to note is despite having less powerplay time in 09-10, Zajac scored more points. This means he was being more efficient with his powerplay opportunities.

- Kovy spends 5 minutes per game more at ES and PP than Zajac so Kovy should always score more than Travis despite being linemates.

- Shooting Percentage: 10.8 to 11.9 to 7.5 s% over the past three seasons. Zajac was trending upwards nicely until this past year. The question is, why did he and almost every other player see a noticeable drop in their shooting percentage?

- Shot selection under Maclean and Lemaire? Possibly the “shoot from anywhere” mentality lowered the quality of his scoring chances? Who can say, but the new coach will need to address this.​

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Section 5: The Future

The most important question is how well can Zajac rebound from this drop-off. First, I don’t think it’s prudent to look at this past season as a benchmark for any player on this team, so most of this guesswork will be from extrapolating his stats from his two 60+ point seasons.​

How Much Offense Can We Expect:​

Looking at his PROD stats and assuming he remains healthy (he’s never missed a game since his rookie year), he should be playing 20:00 min/game and should score around 65 points.​

#1 Center?:​

The other question many people bring up is whether or not Zajac is a #1 center?​

To answer this question I have done some extensive research. I looked at every single team and took their #1 center, charted their PROD ratings and point ratings. This will allow us to accurately measure what a #1 center produced in this league in terms of both total points (PTS) and efficiency (PROD).​

NOTE: I did not factor in Crosby, Malkin, or Derek Roy. Their injuries made it so they would drastically skew the data. Needless to say, Malkin and Crosby are better than Travis and Roy is comparable.​

- Zajac had averages of 65 PTS and 24:22 PROD the two seasons before last. Also he was trending upwards at the end of 09/10.

- League Average for #1 Center: 64.4 PTS, 24:22 PROD (Not a typo, he’s that close to both averages.)

- What does this tell us? If Zajac can play at the level we’ve seen before, he’s not an elite center (Top 10), but he is absolutely an average #1 center in this league (somewhere in the 10-20 range).

- Keep in mind that these stats are purely offensively based, and as we all know, Zajac more than capable of playing in all situations.​

Conclusion:​

Finally, I’m sure that Zajac and all his fans are eagerly waiting Parise’s new contract and their inevitable reunion. Maybe we can even see a new ZZP line with Palmieri. Zajac helps us in almost everyway possible, and he figures to be one of the key components to a turnaround season.​

 

[SLY]

Nicely done sir,

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Interesting stuff, kind of swamped at work but I will contribute with some stats as soon as I get a couple of minutes. Faceoffs is an interesting one, especially in the defensive zone. I feel that this is and has been one of our biggest issues for years, going all the way back to the 03 Stanley Cup where we were absolutely dominted in the faceoff circle. Again I don't have numbers in front of me and could be way off, but I thought this was an area Adam Oates would help us out a lot with, as well as the PP. Doesn't appear either one is happening.

 

[MCDevils]

Interesting stuff, kind of swamped at work but I will contribute with some stats as soon as I get a couple of minutes. Faceoffs is an interesting one, especially in the defensive zone. I feel that this is and has been one of our biggest issues for years, going all the way back to the 03 Stanley Cup where we were absolutely dominted in the faceoff circle. Again I don't have numbers in front of me and could be way off, but I thought this was an area Adam Oates would help us out a lot with, as well as the PP. Doesn't appear either one is happening.

Well when it comes to PP face offs, Zajac is an animal winning 66%.

 

[MCDevils]

Feel free to jump in here, guys. Anyone have some additional stuff they want to add, or refute?

 

[devs30rko]

These, I believe are going to be knowledge giving there isn't much to refute even if one wants too. Above and beyond the call of a standard write up this was fantastic

 

[Nasty_Magician]

I forget who brought it up at the beginning of the season but in 09-10 Zajac's stat line was G: 25, A: 42, P: 67, +/-: 22. Jonathan Toews stat line for that same season was G: 25, A: 43, P: 68, +/-: 22.

Had Parise been healthy this year who knows what type of stats Zajac would have put up but the bottom line is he can produce at an elite level. And I don't think it's as easy as saying Parise is getting him those points. Zajac plays with a different level of confidence when him and Parise are clicking. I doubt there is a stat out there for battles won in the corners, or time spent protecting the puck along the boards, but these are the types of things Zajac can excel at when he plays with confidence.

While his playoff stats have not been terrible, they also have not been as good as we need them to be. If he is going to be the true number 1 center that we need to make a serious cup run he needs to be producing at roughly a point per game average (in my opinion). With the skill that we have on the top line wings there's no reason he can't pull this off.

 

[MCDevils]

I guess I did put a bit too much emphasis on needing Parise, but it's obvious that they're able to elevate each other's games and really work well with each other. He also doesn't play a style that's going to work with Kovy.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

I guess I did put a bit too much emphasis on needing Parise, but it's obvious that they're able to elevate each other's games and really work well with each other. He also doesn't play a style that's going to work with Kovy.

I actually agree that Zajac and Parise are better together than apart. I think Kovy can play with just about anybody, he's more of a 1 man show than Parise is.

 

[MadCaptain]

I forgot this one was done. Someone needs to get #1 stickied.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

Great analysis.

I only have 1 question.

Will Zajac be resigned by the Devils?

 

[MCDevils]

Had to re-post this given today's excellent news! Removed all the 9th level stuff in a house cleaning effort about a week ago.

 

[BadMotoWeazal]

Great analysis.

I only have 1 question.

Will Zajac be resigned by the Devils?

That would be yes....