cerealboi
Well-Known Member
his Cy take:
Sale has the better FIP because of his higher strikeout rate and very, very slightly lower home run rate, while Kluber has the lower ERA, so Sale leads in FanGraphs WAR by 0.6 and Kluber leads in Baseball-Reference WAR by more than a win and a half.
Baseball Prospectus, which tracks the quality of batters a pitcher faces, has the two in a near dead-heat by any measure of strength of competition. As with the MVP races, there are multiple good answers here, but I'd choose Sale for the higher K percentage and for making four extra starts. Either is a worthy choice, however.
It's immaterial to the race, but I was amused to see that Sale has had just four outings all year where he allowed more than four runs and two came against Cleveland.
Kluber wins it. And it won't be particularly close.