77.8% chance one of these players drafted

[augustisback003]

That's not accurate though since based on that "assignment", 3 standard deviations out both ways is only accurate now 70% of the time (7/10 drafts), not 99.7%.

You're right but take out the 2004 draft where they missed out of Steven Jackson after trading back and the 2005 draft when Leon Hall fell to them and you would have a 9 for 10 success rate which would fall inline with the rule. Those two outliers skewed the numbers but with a larger sample size the law of large numbers kicks in and you'd get a more accurate survey.

 

[flamingrey]

You're right but take out the 2004 draft where they missed out of Steven Jackson after trading back and the 2005 draft when Leon Hall fell to them and you would have a 9 for 10 success rate which would fall inline with the rule. Those two outliers skewed the numbers but with a larger sample size the law of large numbers kicks in and you'd get a more accurate survey.

You're right on there. Your sample size simply isn't large enough. You'd really have to go back much further than you have which would obviously be difficult.