77.8% chance one of these players drafted

[augustisback003]

I've posted this before so I'm not going to go into the whole Normal distribution rule but since 2003 the rule has accurately identified the player eventually selected by the Bengals in 7 out of 9 drafts with the only anomalies being 2004 (Chris Perry) and 2007 (Leon Hall). If Floyd (17th) and Glenn (21st) are available I would love to have those 2 players with a CB (Chase Minnifield, Jamell Fleming, Brandon Boykin) and RB (Isaiah Pead, Bernard Pierce, Chris Polk) in the 2nd and 3rd Rounds respectively.

17th overall pick
Ranked 14th overall- Michael Brockers DT 6'5" 322 LSU
Ranked 15th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa
Ranked 16th overall- Fletcher Cox DT 6'4" 298 Mississippi State
Ranked 17th overall- Courtney Upshaw DE 6'1⅝" 272 Alabama
Ranked 18th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame
Ranked 19th overall- Cordy Glenn OT 6'5¾" 345 Georgia
Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama

21st overall pick
Ranked 18th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame
Ranked 19th overall- Cordy Glenn OT 6'5¾" 345 Georgia
Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama
Ranked 21st overall- Janoris Jenkins CB 5'10" 193 North Alabama
Ranked 22nd overall- Stephon Gilmore CB 6'0½" 190 South Carolina
Ranked 23rd overall- Chandler Jones DE 6'5" 247 Syracuse
Ranked 24th overall- Kendall Wright WR 5'10¼" 196 Baylor

 

[icehole3]

doesnt Floyd play the same spot as AJ Green, seems like Wright would fit the O better IMO

 

[ckhokie]

Chase Minnifield sucks. Actually watch him get burned during games instead of repeting bc you've heard his name. 5th round guy at best.

 

[augustisback003]

I've posted this before so I'm not going to go into the whole Normal distribution rule but since 2003 the rule has accurately identified the player eventually selected by the Bengals in 7 out of 9 drafts with the only anomalies being 2004 (Chris Perry) and 2007 (Leon Hall). If Floyd (17th) and Glenn (21st) are available I would love to have those 2 players with a CB (Chase Minnifield, Jamell Fleming, Brandon Boykin) and RB (Isaiah Pead, Bernard Pierce, Chris Polk) in the 2nd and 3rd Rounds respectively.

17th overall pick
Ranked 14th overall- Michael Brockers DT 6'5" 322 LSU
Ranked 15th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa
Ranked 16th overall- Fletcher Cox DT 6'4" 298 Mississippi State
Ranked 17th overall- Courtney Upshaw DE 6'1⅝" 272 Alabama
Ranked 18th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame
Ranked 19th overall- Cordy Glenn OT 6'5¾" 345 Georgia
Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama

21st overall pick
Ranked 18th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame
Ranked 19th overall- Cordy Glenn OT 6'5¾" 345 Georgia
Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama
Ranked 21st overall- Janoris Jenkins CB 5'10" 193 North Alabama
Ranked 22nd overall- Stephon Gilmore CB 6'0½" 190 South Carolina
Ranked 23rd overall- Chandler Jones DE 6'5" 247 Syracuse
Ranked 24th overall- Kendall Wright WR 5'10¼" 196 Baylor

There's movement in ESPN's rankings as player's Pro Days moved prospects up or down the board. The biggest leap thus far is DT Fletcher Cox who moved from the 16th spot a week ago all the way up to the 6th overall position.

17th overall pick (new position in bold)
Ranked 14th overall- Michael Brockers DT 6'5" 322 LSU
Ranked 14th overall- David DeCastro OG 6'4⅞" 316 Stanford

Ranked 15th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa
Ranked 15th overall- Dontari Poe DT 6'3½" 346 Memphis

Ranked 16th overall- Fletcher Cox DT 6'4" 298 Mississippi State
Ranked 16th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa

Ranked 17th overall- Courtney Upshaw DE 6'1⅝" 272 Alabama
Ranked 17th overall- No change

Ranked 18th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame
Ranked 18th overall- No change

Ranked 19th overall- Cordy Glenn OT 6'5¾" 345 Georgia
Ranked 19th overall- Stephon Gilmore CB 6'0½" 190 South Carolina

Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama
Ranked 20th overall- No change

21st overall pick
Ranked 18th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame
Ranked 18th overall- No change

Ranked 19th overall- Cordy Glenn OT 6'5¾" 345 Georgia
Ranked 19th overall- Stephon Gilmore CB 6'0½" 190 South Carolina

Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama
Ranked 20th overall- No change

Ranked 21st overall- Janoris Jenkins CB 5'10" 193 North Alabama
Ranked 21st overall- Cordy Glenn OT 6'5¾" 345 Georgia

Ranked 22nd overall- Stephon Gilmore CB 6'0½" 190 South Carolina
Ranked 22nd overall- Chandler Jones DE 6'5" 247 Syracuse

Ranked 23rd overall- Chandler Jones DE 6'5" 247 Syracuse
Ranked 23rd overall- Kendall Wright WR 5'10¼" 196 Baylor

Ranked 24th overall- Kendall Wright WR 5'10¼" 196 Baylor
Ranked 24th overall- Janoris Jenkins CB 5'10" 193 North Alabama

Fletcher Cox- moves up 10 spots
Stephon Gilmore- moves up 3 spots
Michael Brockers- moves up 1 spot
Chandler Jones- moves up 1 spot
Kendall Wright- moves up 1 spot

Dontari Poe- falls 8 spots
Janoris Jenkins- falls 3 spots
David DeCastro- falls 2 spots
Cordy Glenn- falls 2 spots
Riley Reiff- falls 1 spot

 

[augustisback003]

The draft board appears to finally have settled. New positions in bold.

17th overall pick (new position in bold)
Ranked 14th overall- Michael Brockers DT 6'5" 322 LSU
Ranked 14th overall- David DeCastro OG 6'4⅞" 316 Stanford (now ranked 12th)
Ranked 14th overall- Quinton Coples DE 6'5¾" 284 North Carolina

Ranked 15th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa
Ranked 15th overall- Dontari Poe DT 6'3½" 346 Memphis
Ranked 15th overall- Michael Brockers DT 6'5" 322 LSU

Ranked 16th overall- Fletcher Cox DT 6'4" 298 Mississippi State
Ranked 16th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa
Ranked 16th overall- Chandler Jones DE 6'5⅜" 266 Syracuse

Ranked 17th overall- Courtney Upshaw DE 6'1⅝" 272 Alabama
Ranked 17th overall- No change
Ranked 17th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame

Ranked 18th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame
Ranked 18th overall- No change
Ranked 18th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa

Ranked 19th overall- Cordy Glenn OT 6'5¾" 345 Georgia
Ranked 19th overall- Stephon Gilmore CB 6'0½" 190 South Carolina
Ranked 19th overall- No change

Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama (now ranked 13th)
Ranked 20th overall- No change
Ranked 20th overall- Dontari Poe DT 6'3½" 346 Memphis

21st overall pick
Ranked 18th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame
Ranked 18th overall- No change
Ranked 18th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa

Ranked 19th overall- Cordy Glenn OT 6'5¾" 345 Georgia
Ranked 19th overall- Stephon Gilmore CB 6'0½" 190 South Carolina
Ranked 19th overall- No change

Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama
Ranked 20th overall- No change
Ranked 20th overall- Dontari Poe DT 6'3½" 346 Memphis

Ranked 21st overall- Janoris Jenkins CB 5'10" 193 North Alabama
Ranked 21st overall- Cordy Glenn OT 6'5¾" 345 Georgia
Ranked 21st overall- No change

Ranked 22nd overall- Stephon Gilmore CB 6'0½" 190 South Carolina
Ranked 22nd overall- Chandler Jones DE 6'5" 247 Syracuse
Ranked 22nd overall- Jerel Worthy DT 6'2⅜" 309 Michigan State

Ranked 23rd overall- Chandler Jones DE 6'5" 247 Syracuse
Ranked 23rd overall- Kendall Wright WR 5'10¼" 196 Baylor
Ranked 23rd overall- Shea McClellin OLB 6'3⅜" 260 Boise State

Ranked 24th overall- Kendall Wright WR 5'10¼" 196 Baylor
Ranked 24th overall- Janoris Jenkins CB 5'10" 193 North Alabama
Ranked 24th overall- Dre Kirkpatrick CB 6'1⅝" 185 Alabama

 

[augustisback003]

ESPN has released their final player rankings prior to the draft. So there you have it, take a good look at this list as the odds predict if not one but two of these players will be Bengals after tomorrows draft. I like DeCastro but I'm going with Floyd at 17 and Hightower at 21.

17th overall pick
Ranked 14th overall- David DeCastro OG 6'4⅞" 316 Stanford
Ranked 15th overall- Chandler Jones DE 6'5⅜" 266 Syracuse
Ranked 16th overall- Stephon Gilmore CB 6'0½" 190 South Carolina
Ranked 17th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame
Ranked 18th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa
Ranked 19th overall- Dontari Poe DT 6'3½" 346 Memphis
Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama

21st overall pick
Ranked 18th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa
Ranked 19th overall- Dontari Poe DT 6'3½" 346 Memphis
Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama
Ranked 21st overall- Shea McClellin OLB 6'3⅜" 260 Boise State 92
Ranked 22nd overall- Dre Kirkpatrick CB 6'1⅝" 185 Alabama
Ranked 23rd overall- Jerel Worthy DT 6'2⅜" 309 Michigan State
Ranked 24th overall- Stephen Hill WR 6'4" 215 Georgia Tech

 

[bengaldoug]

DeCastro and Hightower would be perfect......therefore I predict we'll get Poe and Hill.....

 

[augustisback003]

DeCastro and Hightower would be perfect......therefore I predict we'll get Poe and Hill.....

Ha! Knowing the Bengals it'll be more like Chandler Jones and Riley Reiff with both switching positions.

 

[augustisback003]

And the rules is still in effect, eventhough I'd prefer to have DeCastro.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Except he didn't fall in the 17th pick players. So in reality it didn't work.

 

[vancelot23]

Yeah, I see 0-2

 

[Tubbs1518]

Does that mean since he was wrong he won't show back up?

 

[augustisback003]

Does that mean since he was wrong he won't show back up?

When did I ever day that? Stop making shit up you moron.

 

[ckhokie]

And the rules is still in effect, eventhough I'd prefer to have DeCastro.

Not this^

Except he didn't fall in the 17th pick players. So in reality it didn't work.

This.

Yeah, I see 0-2

and this.

 

[augustisback003]

And the Bengals had a chance at both DeCastro and Hightower if they would have stayed at 21 instead they traded back so the theory is still valid.

 

[ckhokie]

And the Bengals had a chance at both DeCastro and Hightower if they would have stayed at 21 instead they traded back so the theory is still valid.

It's the draft. You should know the Bengals are going to do what is virtually a mathematic anomaly.

 

[Tubbs1518]

But they didn't take them so it's not valid. They did not pick the players in the zones you had them taking them. And I didn't say you wouldn't come back. It was a question. Don't be a dick when no one is being one to you.

 

[augustisback003]

But they didn't take them so it's not valid. They did not pick the players in the zones you had them taking them. And I didn't say you wouldn't come back. It was a question. Don't be a dick when no one is being one to you.

What did I say? I said the "ODDS" predicted the Bengals would take the players listed. The players listed were predicated on the Bengals draft position, obviously there would be different players listed at 21 than at 27. As for the 17th pick I was wrong. Of the 7 players I listed four were available for the Bengals to select and instead they chose to select a player with a lower ranking. That's why the title of the post was named "77.8% chance one of these players drafted" and not "100% chance".

Players were still available.

excerpt~

ESPN has released their final player rankings prior to the draft. So there you have it, take a good look at this list as the odds predict if not one but two of these players will be Bengals after tomorrows draft. I like DeCastro but I'm going with Floyd at 17 and Hightower at 21.

17th overall pick
Ranked 14th overall- David DeCastro OG 6'4⅞" 316 Stanford (drafted 24)
Ranked 15th overall- Chandler Jones DE 6'5⅜" 266 Syracuse (drafted 21)
Ranked 16th overall- Stephon Gilmore CB 6'0½" 190 South Carolina
Ranked 17th overall- Michael Floyd WR 6'2⅝" 220 Notre Dame
Ranked 18th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa (drafted 23)
Ranked 19th overall- Dontari Poe DT 6'3½" 346 Memphis
Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama (drafted 25)

21st overall pick
Ranked 18th overall- Riley Reiff OT 6'5¾" 313 Iowa
Ranked 19th overall- Dontari Poe DT 6'3½" 346 Memphis
Ranked 20th overall- Dont'a Hightower ILB 6'2¼" 265 Alabama
Ranked 21st overall- Shea McClellin OLB 6'3⅜" 260 Boise State 92
Ranked 22nd overall- Dre Kirkpatrick CB 6'1⅝" 185 Alabama
Ranked 23rd overall- Jerel Worthy DT 6'2⅜" 309 Michigan State
Ranked 24th overall- Stephen Hill WR 6'4" 215 Georgia Tech

 

[Tubbs1518]

I'm aware of what you said. All I said was that it was wrong. That's all. Chill.

 

[kramer1]

LOL @ him. You were wrong, dude.