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Five offenses built to win now, including the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers - NFL
By Aaron Schatz
You may have read in various places that the 2014 New England Patriots were either the youngest or second-youngest team to ever win a Super Bowl. That number comes from averaging the age of every player on the Patriots' roster, but that methodology doesn't account for the fact that 37-year-old Tom Brady played most of the snaps at quarterback, not 23-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo.
We can do better.
Football Outsiders determines which teams are the oldest and youngest with a metric we call "snap-weighted age," which measures the average age of the players on a team based on which players actually played that season. So, for example, a player with 1,000 snaps counts twice as much as a player with just 500 snaps. For 2014, the oldest team in the league by this method was New Orleans at 27.3 years. And the Patriots were not a particularly young group, ranking as the 10th-oldest (27 years) when we looked at who actually played.
This offseason, for the first time, we decided to create an approximate snap-weighted age estimate for each offense and defense. We analyzed projected starting lineups and created formulas to project the average number of snaps played by lower-round picks based on position. Of course, we can't predict where injuries will force teams to start rookies and other young players. But by looking at where teams added free agents and where they drafted rookies, we can get an idea of which offenses and defenses are building the future and which want to win now.
One more very important note: Getting older/younger doesn't necessarily make a team better or worse. (Older teams do perform slightly better based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics, but it's a small correlation: 0.15 on offense and 0.17 on defense.) With that in mind, let's look at the five offenses that are build to win now. (You can find the five offenses that are built with the future in mind here.)
We'll touch on the defenses next week.
All player ages listed below are for 2015, based solely on birth year.
Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers
Atlanta Falcons
Seattle Seahawks
Pittsburgh Steelers
Thanks to both Scott Kacsmar and Sterling Xie for a lot of the work in putting these numbers together.
By Aaron Schatz
You may have read in various places that the 2014 New England Patriots were either the youngest or second-youngest team to ever win a Super Bowl. That number comes from averaging the age of every player on the Patriots' roster, but that methodology doesn't account for the fact that 37-year-old Tom Brady played most of the snaps at quarterback, not 23-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo.
We can do better.
Football Outsiders determines which teams are the oldest and youngest with a metric we call "snap-weighted age," which measures the average age of the players on a team based on which players actually played that season. So, for example, a player with 1,000 snaps counts twice as much as a player with just 500 snaps. For 2014, the oldest team in the league by this method was New Orleans at 27.3 years. And the Patriots were not a particularly young group, ranking as the 10th-oldest (27 years) when we looked at who actually played.
This offseason, for the first time, we decided to create an approximate snap-weighted age estimate for each offense and defense. We analyzed projected starting lineups and created formulas to project the average number of snaps played by lower-round picks based on position. Of course, we can't predict where injuries will force teams to start rookies and other young players. But by looking at where teams added free agents and where they drafted rookies, we can get an idea of which offenses and defenses are building the future and which want to win now.
One more very important note: Getting older/younger doesn't necessarily make a team better or worse. (Older teams do perform slightly better based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics, but it's a small correlation: 0.15 on offense and 0.17 on defense.) With that in mind, let's look at the five offenses that are build to win now. (You can find the five offenses that are built with the future in mind here.)
We'll touch on the defenses next week.
All player ages listed below are for 2015, based solely on birth year.
Indianapolis Colts
2014: 26.2 (27th-oldest) / 2015, estimated: 27.6 (10th)
No offense added more age than the Colts this offseason, and it isn't even close. Indy's estimated SWA for next season is 1.45 years older than last season; no other offense is projected to get more than a year older. A couple of contributing factors to the outlier:
1. The biggest-name veteran free agent, Andre Johnson (34), actually replaces someone who was three years older, the departed Reggie Wayne (37).
2. Trent Richardson (25) is out and Frank Gore (32) is in at the featured running back spot, while Todd Herremans (33) takes the place of a rotating group of younger players at right guard.
3. The Colts only drafted one offensive player in the first five rounds, wide receiver Phillip Dorsett (22). Normally we would expect him to play a lot as a first-round pick, but he's currently fourth on the depth chart at the position.
What does it all mean for 2015?
Gore certainly has defied the usual running back age curve -- and both he and Herremans are almost guaranteed to be better than the awful performance the Colts got at their positions last year. On the other hand, Johnson has clearly declined over the last couple seasons. Yes, we can blame that partly on the Texans' messy quarterback situation, but that doesn't explain why DeAndre Hopkins has looked so good with the same quarterbacks.
The goal of all these added veterans is to get the Colts over the hump and into the Super Bowl, but champions are rarely built by adding players in their mid-30s.
No offense added more age than the Colts this offseason, and it isn't even close. Indy's estimated SWA for next season is 1.45 years older than last season; no other offense is projected to get more than a year older. A couple of contributing factors to the outlier:
1. The biggest-name veteran free agent, Andre Johnson (34), actually replaces someone who was three years older, the departed Reggie Wayne (37).
2. Trent Richardson (25) is out and Frank Gore (32) is in at the featured running back spot, while Todd Herremans (33) takes the place of a rotating group of younger players at right guard.
3. The Colts only drafted one offensive player in the first five rounds, wide receiver Phillip Dorsett (22). Normally we would expect him to play a lot as a first-round pick, but he's currently fourth on the depth chart at the position.
What does it all mean for 2015?
Gore certainly has defied the usual running back age curve -- and both he and Herremans are almost guaranteed to be better than the awful performance the Colts got at their positions last year. On the other hand, Johnson has clearly declined over the last couple seasons. Yes, we can blame that partly on the Texans' messy quarterback situation, but that doesn't explain why DeAndre Hopkins has looked so good with the same quarterbacks.
The goal of all these added veterans is to get the Colts over the hump and into the Super Bowl, but champions are rarely built by adding players in their mid-30s.
Green Bay Packers
2014: 25.7 (30th-oldest) / 2015, estimated: 26.6 (20th)
While the Colts got older by adding new players, the Packers' SWA increased by almost exactly one year because they kept all the same players. And while the Packers' bump in age lands them on this portion of the list, it's actually still a young group overall (20th-oldest unit). In fact, they only have two offensive starters in their 30s, Aaron Rodgers (32) and Jordy Nelson (30). Since the offense has developed so many drafted players into starters recently, the Packers didn't need to replace any veterans with younger talent. The main offensive draft picks were wide receiver Ty Montgomery (22), currently fifth on the depth chart, and quarterback Brett Hundley (22), who won't play unless both Rodgers and Scott Tolzien go down.
While the Colts got older by adding new players, the Packers' SWA increased by almost exactly one year because they kept all the same players. And while the Packers' bump in age lands them on this portion of the list, it's actually still a young group overall (20th-oldest unit). In fact, they only have two offensive starters in their 30s, Aaron Rodgers (32) and Jordy Nelson (30). Since the offense has developed so many drafted players into starters recently, the Packers didn't need to replace any veterans with younger talent. The main offensive draft picks were wide receiver Ty Montgomery (22), currently fifth on the depth chart, and quarterback Brett Hundley (22), who won't play unless both Rodgers and Scott Tolzien go down.
Atlanta Falcons
2014: 26.8 (16th-oldest) / 2015, estimated: 27.6 (11th)
The average age for most teams stays fairly consistent from year to year because the main players get a year older, while a couple of declining veterans get replaced by younger players. The Falcons got older because they swapped out their older, declining veterans with other older (maybe declining) veterans. Left guard Chris Chester (32) slides in Justin Blalock's (32) old spot, while Joe Hawley (27) returns from injury to take snaps from James Stone (22) at center. The one place the Falcons will actually get younger is at running back, with Devonta Freeman (23) and Tevin Coleman (22), but Steven Jackson (32) only played 39 percent of snaps last year so the impact is a bit muted. It's hard to see the roster turnover here leading to significant improvement or decline from the Falcons' six-win season in 2014.
The average age for most teams stays fairly consistent from year to year because the main players get a year older, while a couple of declining veterans get replaced by younger players. The Falcons got older because they swapped out their older, declining veterans with other older (maybe declining) veterans. Left guard Chris Chester (32) slides in Justin Blalock's (32) old spot, while Joe Hawley (27) returns from injury to take snaps from James Stone (22) at center. The one place the Falcons will actually get younger is at running back, with Devonta Freeman (23) and Tevin Coleman (22), but Steven Jackson (32) only played 39 percent of snaps last year so the impact is a bit muted. It's hard to see the roster turnover here leading to significant improvement or decline from the Falcons' six-win season in 2014.
Seattle Seahawks
2014: 25.3 (31st-oldest) / 2015, estimated: 26.1 (27th)
As with Green Bay, this is a good, young offense getting older because there aren't really a ton of grizzled vets begging to be replaced yet. Marshawn Lynch (29) is the old man, but it's hard to imagine he'll see fewer than the 66.5 percent of snaps he played a year ago. Jimmy Graham (29) is three or four years older than the tight ends he will replace in the starting lineup, which balances out any snaps the Seahawks move from veteran wide receivers to the younger Paul Richardson (23) and Tyler Lockett (23).
As with Green Bay, this is a good, young offense getting older because there aren't really a ton of grizzled vets begging to be replaced yet. Marshawn Lynch (29) is the old man, but it's hard to imagine he'll see fewer than the 66.5 percent of snaps he played a year ago. Jimmy Graham (29) is three or four years older than the tight ends he will replace in the starting lineup, which balances out any snaps the Seahawks move from veteran wide receivers to the younger Paul Richardson (23) and Tyler Lockett (23).
Pittsburgh Steelers
2014: 26.5 (22nd-oldest) / 2015, estimated: 27.2 (13th)
More than most teams, the SWA of the Steelers offense in 2015 depends on what happens with injuries. Tight end Heath Miller (33) played 97 percent of last year's snaps, but Miller's absence would likely mean more three-wide sets and more playing time for rookie Sammie Coates (22) and second-year man Dri Archer (24). Maurkice Pouncey (26) and David DeCastro (25) finally got an entire season of starting together last year, but if either of them -- or 29-year-old Ramon Foster -- miss time, it'll mean giving snaps to someone from a very young group of backup interior linemen.
Injuries aside, the Steelers will get older in the backfield after adding veteran running back DeAngelo Williams (31) to play in place of Le'veon Bell (23) during his suspension and then rotate with Bell instead of LeGarrette Blount (29) or Archer.
More than most teams, the SWA of the Steelers offense in 2015 depends on what happens with injuries. Tight end Heath Miller (33) played 97 percent of last year's snaps, but Miller's absence would likely mean more three-wide sets and more playing time for rookie Sammie Coates (22) and second-year man Dri Archer (24). Maurkice Pouncey (26) and David DeCastro (25) finally got an entire season of starting together last year, but if either of them -- or 29-year-old Ramon Foster -- miss time, it'll mean giving snaps to someone from a very young group of backup interior linemen.
Injuries aside, the Steelers will get older in the backfield after adding veteran running back DeAngelo Williams (31) to play in place of Le'veon Bell (23) during his suspension and then rotate with Bell instead of LeGarrette Blount (29) or Archer.
Thanks to both Scott Kacsmar and Sterling Xie for a lot of the work in putting these numbers together.
