Game Thread: 5/24 Puds @ SammyJam

[LHG]

Any adds the Giants will make this offseason, though, will likely be made through trades. This coming FA class SUCKS.

Yup, bad time for half the pitching prospects to poop their pants.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yup, bad time for half the pitching prospects to poop their pants.

???

Who HASNT??

 

[LHG]

???

Who HASNT??

Phil Bickford?

 

[tzill]

Phil Bickford?

or as I call him: Bill Pickford

 

[filosofy29]

I hope I continue to be wrong/eat crow on SammyJam.

#noColinCoby

 

[calsnowskier]

I hope I continue to be wrong/eat crow on SammyJam.

#noColinCoby

I am gladly eating my portion.

I would still like to have a first rounder this year, but...

 

[Mays-Fan]

Interesting take, here's how I see it

2017 has 9 committed contracts $144.5MM (Cain, Buster, Hunter, JC, SammyJam, Bum, Craw, Spanny, Belt).

1. PV is gone
2. Oxy is gone
3. Romo will be resigned...probably something like + $8MM
4. JLo is gone
5. Blanco probably back, call it + $6MM
6. KCya probably back, call it + $9MM
7. Kontos back at something like $2MM
8. Gearrin back at something like $1MM

So that's +26MM bringing us to $170.5 with 14 players.

Add in min contracts for Panik, Duffy, Heston, Strick, EA/Gillaspie, Osich, KT, Browine/Susac, JPark/Mac +$5MM, and we're at $175.5MM with 23 players.

So now we have:
SP - Bum, JC, SammyJam, Cain, Hesto
RP - KCya, Romo, Osich, Strick, Kontos, Gearrin
C - Posey, Brown/Susac
IF - Belt, Panik, Duffy, Craw, KT, EA/Gillaspie
OF - Span, Pence, Blanco, JPark/Mac

2 holes: OF and RP.

The current CBA expires wrt the luxury tax after this season, so let's assume it'll stay at $189MM. The Giants are not likely to exceed it, I'm thinking. We'd need to add in another $5MM or so for players on the 40 man who are not on the 25 man, so that brings us to $180MM give or take. They could plug their two holes with minor league players and that'd bring us to roughly $182MM, or pretty close to the tax threshold. I'd think they'd reserve the $7MM or so for a trade deadline move.

Simply put, not nearly the $40MM of room you're thinking of. I made some assumptions (Romo 8, Blanco 6, Casilla 9) so if you redistribute that money you might get your quality reliever and decent OF, but no FA SP is likely headed to SF. Unless we pick him up at the trade deadline. Even then, I'd rather spend 17 on Romo and Casilla than roll the dice on the FA RP market. But, we shall see.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Interesting take, here's how I see it

2017 has 9 committed contracts $144.5MM (Cain, Buster, Hunter, JC, SammyJam, Bum, Craw, Spanny, Belt).

1. PV is gone
2. Oxy is gone
3. Romo will be resigned...probably something like + $8MM
4. JLo is gone
5. Blanco probably back, call it + $6MM
6. KCya probably back, call it + $9MM
7. Kontos back at something like $2MM
8. Gearrin back at something like $1MM

So that's +26MM bringing us to $170.5 with 14 players.

Add in min contracts for Panik, Duffy, Heston, Strick, EA/Gillaspie, Osich, KT, Browine/Susac, JPark/Mac +$5MM, and we're at $175.5MM with 23 players.

So now we have:
SP - Bum, JC, SammyJam, Cain, Hesto
RP - KCya, Romo, Osich, Strick, Kontos, Gearrin
C - Posey, Brown/Susac
IF - Belt, Panik, Duffy, Craw, KT, EA/Gillaspie
OF - Span, Pence, Blanco, JPark/Mac

2 holes: OF and RP.

The current CBA expires wrt the luxury tax after this season, so let's assume it'll stay at $189MM. The Giants are not likely to exceed it, I'm thinking. We'd need to add in another $5MM or so for players on the 40 man who are not on the 25 man, so that brings us to $180MM give or take. They could plug their two holes with minor league players and that'd bring us to roughly $182MM, or pretty close to the tax threshold. I'd think they'd reserve the $7MM or so for a trade deadline move.

Simply put, not nearly the $40MM of room you're thinking of. I made some assumptions (Romo 8, Blanco 6, Casilla 9) so if you redistribute that money you might get your quality reliever and decent OF, but no FA SP is likely headed to SF. Unless we pick him up at the trade deadline. Even then, I'd rather spend 17 on Romo and Casilla than roll the dice on the FA RP market. But, we shall see.

Yeah, ya caught me - I was looking at a subtotal line on BBRef that had yet to include about $8.1 mm for arbitration increases, and $11.1 mm for low-dollar contracts.

That brings BBRef up to $161.6 mm. I don't see them resigning Romo, but who knows. Casilla brings them to $170-ish mm. So we only have $15 mm or so to play with.

What's worse, if you can call it that, is that for 2018 we are already at $176 mm before exercising the Bum option of $12 mm. So if $189 mm is still the cap for 2018, we essentially have no room then. So anyone we may sign for 2017 can't have any carryover to 2018 - no multi-year FA deal next year (cal, your earlier comment about the quality of the 2017 FA class is noted). I'm not complaining with where we are, but we have boxed ourselves in for 2018.

But it's a very, very nice box.

 

[SFGRTB]

I am gladly eating my portion.

I would still like to have a first rounder this year, but...

I get what you're saying, but.....


Giants' 1st pick in 2016 - 59th


Andrew Suarez - 61st overall

Steven Duggar - 186th overall

Tyler Cyr - 306th overall

C.J Hinojosa - 336th overall

Matt Winn - 426th overall


Sam Coonrod - 148th overall

Austin Slater - 238th overall

Jordan Johnson - 688th overall


That's in the last 2 years.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yeah, ya caught me - I was looking at a subtotal line on BBRef that had yet to include about $8.1 mm for arbitration increases, and $11.1 mm for low-dollar contracts.

That brings BBRef up to $161.6 mm. I don't see them resigning Romo, but who knows. Casilla brings them to $170-ish mm. So we only have $15 mm or so to play with.

What's worse, if you can call it that, is that for 2018 we are already at $176 mm before exercising the Bum option of $12 mm. So if $189 mm is still the cap for 2018, we essentially have no room then. So anyone we may sign for 2017 can't have any carryover to 2018 - no multi-year FA deal next year (cal, your earlier comment about the quality of the 2017 FA class is noted). I'm not complaining with where we are, but we have boxed ourselves in for 2018.

But it's a very, very nice box.

You are assuming JC does not Opt out?

 

[calsnowskier]

I get what you're saying, but.....


Giants' 1st pick in 2016 - 59th


Andrew Suarez - 61st overall

Steven Duggar - 186th overall

Tyler Cyr - 306th overall

C.J Hinojosa - 336th overall

Matt Winn - 426th overall


Sam Coonrod - 148th overall

Austin Slater - 238th overall

Jordan Johnson - 688th overall


That's in the last 2 years.

Bickford 18
Shaw 31
Beede 14
Arroyo 25
Stratton 20
Panik 29
Wheeler 6
Posey 5
Bumgarner 10
Lincecum 10

That's in the last 10 years.

 

[SFGRTB]

Bickford 18
Shaw 31
Beede 14
Arroyo 25
Stratton 20
Panik 29
Wheeler 6
Posey 5
Bumgarner 10
Lincecum 10

That's in the last 10 years.

Just pointing out that there is talent outside of the 1st round, and the last two years in particular we've been adept at finding guys later (which I know you know)

 

[Mays-Fan]

You are assuming JC does not Opt out?

For now, yes. JC becomes something of a high-priced wash either way in 2018. If he is very good and he opts out, we lose an excellent pitcher but gain $22 mm in cap space, but we'd have to spend that much at least to replace him. If he is less than very good and does not opt out, then the BBRef numbers apply - at $22 mm.

Certainly he is off to an opt-out-able start, but we are still 270+ games away from that decision point - anything could happen.

 

[calsnowskier]

For now, yes. JC becomes something of a high-priced wash either way in 2018. If he is very good and he opts out, we lose an excellent pitcher but gain $22 mm in cap space, but we'd have to spend that much at least to replace him. If he is less than very good and does not opt out, then the BBRef numbers apply - at $22 mm.

Certainly he is off to an opt-out-able start, but we are still 270+ games away from that decision point - anything could happen.

Assuming the QO system remains, we would also get a pick if he walks.

 

[LHG]

Assuming the QO system remains, we would also get a pick if he walks.

Also assuming that the team is always going to have to fill holes from outside the farm.