2024 Free agency and draft thread

[Sharkonabicycle]

The gist I get about the Vikings GM is that he needs to knock this draft out of the park or he is in a hot seat.

I think the Raiders are in 'win now' mode. Broncos in deep rebuild with job security. To me, this screams Vikings trade up for JJ McCarthy and Penix and Nix both are overhyped and fall. I could be wrong.

How are Penix/Nix overhyped? Most analysts are pegging them in the 2nd round or late 1st. Penix has gotten a little hype since the combine.

The biggest overhyped player is McCarthy. He was in most cases a mid 2nd and in some cases a 3rd round pick until he won the Championship and then Harbaugh started hyping the ever living F out of him when he took the Chargers job. And Harbaugh I'm sure cares about the kid, but he has an ulterior motive (IMO). Either 4 QBs go top 4 and then Harbaugh has his pick of the litter (Chargers don't need a QB) OR Harbaugh can trade Harrison Jr. effectively for a haul (teams will trade up for Harrison Jr... he's the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson). OR the Cards just take Harrison Jr. in which case Harbaugh can hold McCarthy ransom and meanwhile rave about it on the phone to dumbass organizations willing to trade up.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

If they try to wait for the 2nd round for Penix, they don't really want him IMO.

I don't mean the Raiders are saying that.. a lot of analysts and talking heads in general are saying "Get Penix in the 2nd round" to any team interested in him. I think they are underrating/valuing Penix... and I think there are teams who need a QB that are more than willing to spend a 1st on him. My point is, to analysts/fans/media saying, "Grab such and such with the 1st and then Penix in the 2nd!" I don't think Penix will realistically be there in the 2nd. I also would be surprised if McCarthy is traded up for... and naturally will be giving any team that moves into the top 5 to take him an F grade (because that means they plan to start him day 1, and that is IMO LIKELY to be a fuckin' disaster).

Could be wrong. We'll find out in ~1 week.

 

[shopson67]

JJ reeks of a smoke screen, but there is just so much smoke. I mean, his best receiver needed the Senior bowl to really get noticed. There's such limited tape to base your evaluation on for a championship team. This was a considerable jump up from his previous play too. The loaded roster factor certainly comes into play too.

 

[shopson67]

I don't mean the Raiders are saying that.. a lot of analysts and talking heads in general are saying "Get Penix in the 2nd round" to any team interested in him. I think they are underrating/valuing Penix... and I think there are teams who need a QB that are more than willing to spend a 1st on him. My point is, to analysts/fans/media saying, "Grab such and such with the 1st and then Penix in the 2nd!" I don't think Penix will realistically be there in the 2nd. I also would be surprised if McCarthy is traded up for... and naturally will be giving any team that moves into the top 5 to take him an F grade (because that means they plan to start him day 1, and that is IMO LIKELY to be a fuckin' disaster).

Could be wrong. We'll find out in ~1 week.

The Vikes trading up depends on reading the Giants intentions (and the other QB needy teams desire or lack thereof to move up).

 

[HaroldSeattle]

The gist I get about the Vikings GM is that he needs to knock this draft out of the park or he is in a hot seat.

I think the Raiders are in 'win now' mode. Broncos in deep rebuild with job security. To me, this screams Vikings trade up for JJ McCarthy and Penix and Nix both are overhyped and fall. I could be wrong.

Thing is Broncos don't have a second so do they want to trade next years first (which could be a early pick)? Maybe but I think they sit tight and see which QBs are left. Raiders? Think Penix fits what they like in a QB and they'll gamble that he will be there when there pick comes up (If they decide to go QB). Unless the Vikings want who ever is available at pick #3 (Daniels or Maye) there isn't a good reason to move up. Personally think Penix will be a better QB that his draft status but will need at least decent pass blocking OL. As far as over hyped I think Daniels and McCarty are the two being over hyped IMO, but I could be wrong of course.

 

[Clayton]

JJ reeks of a smoke screen, but there is just so much smoke. I mean, his best receiver needed the Senior bowl to really get noticed. There's such limited tape to base your evaluation on for a championship team. This was a considerable jump up from his previous play too. The loaded roster factor certainly comes into play too.

It feels like there is a lot of smoke right now. My personal evaluation of the talent would have the draft go:

1. Bears - Caleb Williams
2. WFT - Drake Maye
3. Patriots - Marvin Harrison Jr
4. Cardinals - Malik Nabers
5. Vikings* - Jayden Daniels
6. Giants - Rome Odunze
7. Titans - Joe Alt

So thats totally different than how people think it will happen. At this point I'm just sorta speculating.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

It feels like there is a lot of smoke right now. My personal evaluation of the talent would have the draft go:

1. Bears - Caleb Williams
2. WFT - Drake Maye
3. Patriots - Marvin Harrison Jr
4. Cardinals - Malik Nabers
5. Vikings* - Jayden Daniels
6. Giants - Rome Odunze
7. Titans - Joe Alt

So thats totally different than how people think it will happen. At this point I'm just sorta speculating.

I could see something like that. Harbaugh apparently really likes Alt as well... but getting two firsts from the Vikings would be a pretty solid reason to trade back. The OT class is fairly deep. I get Alt is the standout prospect, but there's a lot of talent at the OL in this draft...

 

[PDay8810]

I'm just sorta speculating.

everyone is

 

[Clayton]

I could see something like that. Harbaugh apparently really likes Alt as well... but getting two firsts from the Vikings would be a pretty solid reason to trade back. The OT class is fairly deep. I get Alt is the standout prospect, but there's a lot of talent at the OL in this draft...

Could see him really liking Latham, Mims, or Fuaga on the right side since they already have a LT. I dont actually think Alt really separates from the pack but he is the best LT prospect. Chargers could trade down without having to shift their OL and get the upgrade they desire. Seems like an easy decision imo.

 

[Clayton]

everyone is

If you're right and there is only 1 QB in this class then its really going to f' up a lot of teams because I do think you'll see at least 4 go high.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

At this point I'm just sorta speculating.

everyone is

Yep, we all are, and that's what makes it so much fun. A lot of variables are at play in this draft to go along with a super talented draft class. Hell, if all the top picks in the first round were already set in stone, there'd be little drama leading up to draft night. I think this will be the highest ratings for the draft ever, and a large part of it is all these variables have been feeding the anticipation.

 

[eaglesnut]

If you're right and there is only 1 QB in this class then its really going to f' up a lot of teams because I do think you'll see at least 4 go high.

All 6 gone by 13.

In my speculation.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

All 6 gone by 13.

In my speculation.

Wow, now THAT's a bold take my friend!!!

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Wow, now THAT's a bold take my friend!!!

Vikes take McCarthy, Broncos take Nix, Raiders take Penix... I guess.

 

[PDay8810]

If you're right and there is only 1 QB in this class then its really going to f' up a lot of teams because I do think you'll see at least 4 go high.

To be clear. I said I see one QB that is an NFL starting QB. Like almost all drafts, teams must REACH for lighting in a bottle for a QB. We see a boat load of examples yearly. This draft will be no different.

 

[shopson67]

To be clear. I said I see one QB that is an NFL starting QB. Like almost all drafts, teams must REACH for lighting in a bottle for a QB. We see a boat load of examples yearly. This draft will be no different.

Yeah, I'm sure many were doubting guys like Josh Allen and Lamar, even Mahomes in their drafts.

 

[DJ Fieri]

Yeah, I'm sure many were doubting guys like Josh Allen and Lamar, even Mahomes in their drafts.

A lot of teams are regretting not taking Mahomes.

LOL.

 

[shopson67]

A lot of teams are regretting not taking Mahomes.

LOL.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. He went 10th overall in 2017 in a draft where a team traded up to #2 for Mitch Trubisky and really only Mahomes and Watson have proven to be quality QB selections. Guys like Trubisky, Solomon Thomas, Fournette, Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross were taken ahead of Mahomes, for whom the Chiefs acquired the pick from the also QB-needy Bills.

On top of that, Mahomes sat a year and learned.

 

[PDay8810]

Yeah, I'm sure many were doubting guys like Josh Allen and Lamar, even Mahomes in their drafts.

brilliant point.

i guess

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. He went 10th overall in 2017 in a draft where a team traded up to #2 for Mitch Trubisky and really only Mahomes and Watson have proven to be quality QB selections. Guys like Trubisky, Solomon Thomas, Fournette, Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross were taken ahead of Mahomes, for whom the Chiefs acquired the pick from the also QB-needy Bills.

On top of that, Mahomes sat a year and learned.

Well that and Mahomes also had one of the best offensive coaches in NFL history teaching him.