The latest trade chart indicates Vikings 2 firsts are more then enough for the #3 and down and who else can even match those 2 firsts much less beat it.
Going by Draft Tek's chart, which is my preferred version, being you can plug various teams name to see their pick #s highlighted, the Vikings would fall a bit short, points-wise, so they might have to throw in one of their two 4th rounders or perhaps a 3rd round from '25, something along those lines. But that aside, yeah, they're in a good position to move up.
Draft Tek uses the Rich Hill trade chart which is considered the most modern and accurate, here it is:
I'm not disputing the charts or their usefulness. However, they are generic. In some years some of the top picks are more valuable than in some other years either due to being better prospects or the prospects being in higher value positions. I'm merely suggesting that this year the top prospects seem to be of better quality and/or are in premium positions. Thus they have higher than normal values. The #3 pick in 2013 was cheap. The #6 pick in 2024 will probably be expensive.
I agree that this years top picks are better then the run of the mill but I also think this years top 20 is better then the run of the mill. Ultimately the value is whatever someone is willing to pay. Vikings and Cards are the only team with multiple firsts and the Cards are not bidding against the Vikings. Vikings have the option of waiting until pick 11 for a QB if the asking price for a top 5 pick is to high and if I was the Vikings the 2 firsts would be as high as I'd be willing to go, but any thing is possible.
If no one is trading up for your QB at 11, don't take a QB at 11 because he sucks.
That's fine if you want BPA. If you want a specific player at a specific position and other players/positions are of significantly less value to you then you should either move up to get your player or prepare to move down if he's not available to where you will get value. Expecting the #4 QB in this Draft to be available at #11 is optimistic. It might happen, but it's optimistic. 5 QBs could go in the top 10.
It’s not that optimistic IMO, I’m certain Penix/Daniels/Maye will go 1-2-3, but after that the only teams I see taking a QB in the first round are the Vikings and Broncos - possibly the Raiders, and the Vikings pick ahead of both the Broncos and Raiders. I don’t see the Cards, Chargers, Giants, Titans, Falcons, Bears at #9, or Jets taking a QB - the only one remotely possibly taking a QB in that group is the Giants. So if I were the Vikings I would wait until #11, and I might not even take a QB there, I don’t know if McCarthy/Penix/Nix are worth that high of a pick.
Yeah I obviously meant Caleb Williams at 1. I agree that it’s amazing the hype McCarthy is getting, he never impressed me in college, he was just a game manager QB and I agree that he’ll struggle in Minnesota or wherever he goes if he starts right away. I don’t know why teams think McCarthy is better than Penix, Penix is better IMO.
Fascinating. Whenever I bring up DT's chart, it's the exact same layout as above, but it's showing the old Jimmy Johnson formula, ie, the 1st pick is worth 3000, 2nd worth 2600 and so on. Thanks for this updated version - fewer points to mess with.
I could definitely see the Giants drafting McCarthy or even the Jets considering it and having him sit and learn for a year. Both teams really need to look at 2025 and beyond because they really have nothing right now in the QB room for the future. Of course, both those franchises are poorly ran so they may go something totally different. The Giants do need a lot on the offensive side as well. Arguably the worst WR room in the league right now or at least, in the conversation.
