2021 salary cap and how it will impact free agency

[averagejoe]

Here is a link which shows all 32 teams and their 2021 salary cap. NFL 2021 Salary Cap Tracker

14 teams are already over their cap including the Saints, Packers, Rams, Steelers, Chiefs and Texans.
There has been a lot of chatter about teams making a run for Deshaun Watson. Stafford is now an option. Seems like Aaron Rodgers is angling for a discount double check (an opportunity on another team).
Locally, the sports talking heads wonder if the Bears will lose Allen Robinson.

Another 8 NFL teams have less than $15 mill in cap space including the Cards, Cowboys, Seahawks, Niners, and Browns.

I'm no expert on salaries and salary caps.
Looking at the players about to hit free agency, there is Dak and Deshaun. But many other players may not be considered "impact" players.
Yet even these non-impact players are making $7, 8 and 9 million.
I'm sure there are plenty of role players making descent money that teams may be forced to look at.

This tells me that 2021 has the potential to be a cap-casualty bloodbath.

 

[leftypower]

Joe, it could certainly be as you say, but there are inventive ways for them to get there (roster bonus, incentives, etc). I'm not saying there won't be guys looking for big deals that won't be disappointed since there certainly will - just saying the teams do have cap wizards. But what will players settle for is the big issue. Most all are looking for long-term deals and may have to settle for significantly less in order to manage the cap for the 'contenders' - who are the primary teams with major cap issues.
If a big payday is the primary focus, they may be forced to go teams like NYJ, JAC or WAS who have $$ but aren't gonna get them a trophy.

 

[molsaniceman]

well they havent set the cap yet but they agreed the lowest it will be is 175

that said lots of teams are in trouble even if rumours are right and its 195

saints/eagles will be in cap hell and need to release some players

Spielberger: Projecting 2021 NFL cap casualties | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

 

[TREFF]

The first issue that needs to be in place before anything can really be forecast, is - just what exactly is the cap going to be??

Currently projected to be 176 million. A DECREASE of 20+ million from this year. There is currently a belief among some agents and league sources that the league and the union might be able to work out a deal that maintains the current cap somewhere around this year's 198 million.

IF they can manage that,, The Saints are still screwed, even after Brees retires, Eagles are still hurting, but for everyone else, it would become much more manageable.

They've got just little over a month to get it finalized, new league year starts March 17th

 

[Trudem]

Here is a link which shows all 32 teams and their 2021 salary cap. NFL 2021 Salary Cap Tracker

14 teams are already over their cap including the Saints, Packers, Rams, Steelers, Chiefs and Texans.
There has been a lot of chatter about teams making a run for Deshaun Watson. Stafford is now an option. Seems like Aaron Rodgers is angling for a discount double check (an opportunity on another team).

Locally, the sports talking heads wonder if the Bears will lose Allen Robinson.

Another 8 NFL teams have less than $15 mill in cap space including the Cards, Cowboys, Seahawks, Niners, and Browns.

I'm no expert on salaries and salary caps.
Looking at the players about to hit free agency, there is Dak and Deshaun. But many other players may not be considered "impact" players.
Yet even these non-impact players are making $7, 8 and 9 million.
I'm sure there are plenty of role players making descent money that teams may be forced to look at.

This tells me that 2021 has the potential to be a cap-casualty bloodbath.

Stop it. Rodgers isnt angling for anything. Jesus

The national media have kicked this into overdrive


With that said, the expected cap was supposed to drop to 175 but recent murmurs have it around 190. Where that figure lands is very important for many teams, especially competitive ones.

 

[TREFF]

Stop it. Rodgers isnt angling for anything. Jesus

The national media have kicked this into overdrive


With that said, the expected cap was supposed to drop to 175 but recent murmurs have it around 190. Where that figure lands is very important for many teams, especially competitive ones.

Well they certainly have TOTALLY blown the entire Rodgers thing out of proportion...BUT.... They DID trade up to take a QB last year, and he would be a savings against the cap by trading/cutting, so it is reasonable to speculate, even if it is a far fetched speculation.

 

[Trudem]

Well they certainly have TOTALLY blown the entire Rodgers thing out of proportion...BUT.... They DID trade up to take a QB last year, and he would be a savings against the cap by trading/cutting, so it is reasonable to speculate, even if it is a far fetched speculation.

The first out has always been after the 2021 season. It makes no sense to move on from Rodgers right now. More than 31 million in dead cap to move him right now.



Even if they designate him as a post June 1st cut, it would still be expensive especially when his potential replacement hasnt even gotten a real off season program yet.

 

[Trudem]

One angle that hasnt really been discussed is the teams with alot of money are going to have a larger pot of decent players this year IMO. With so many teams needing to shed players to fit under the cap some teams are going to really get qaulity players while most teams cant afford to spend any money.

 

[TREFF]

The first out has always been after the 2021 season. It makes no sense to move on from Rodgers right now. More than 31 million in dead cap to move him right now.

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Even if they designate him as a post June 1st cut, it would still be expensive especially when his potential replacement hasnt even gotten a real off season program yet.

Of course I highly doubt anything would come of it, but just like D. Watson..dead cap, or salary+bonuses.. that money is already spent, whether he stays or goes. Dead cap is such a scary word, but it really is kinda meaningless. Most of that number, is going to count, whether he's on the team or not. Biggest difference is, and the only number that truly matters, the cap savings, or the cap hit. In Watson's case its a hit because of prorated signing bonus. In Rodgers case, it's be a cap savings, as his bonuses are structured different.

Doesn't really matter that he'd leave behind 30 million in dead cap this year, as between salary and bonuses, it's costs them over 35 to keep him.

Again, not in any way saying it's a route they will take, or even explore. But strictly dollars and cents? It'd save money..which puts it into the realm of reasonable speculation, given the other factors

 

[Trudem]

Of course I highly doubt anything would come of it, but just like D. Watson..dead cap, or salary+bonuses.. that money is already spent, whether he stays or goes. Dead cap is such a scary word, but it really is kinda meaningless. Most of that number, is going to count, whether he's on the team or not. Biggest difference is, and the only number that truly matters, the cap savings, or the cap hit. In Watson's case its a hit because of prorated signing bonus. In Rodgers case, it's be a cap savings, as his bonuses are structured different.

Doesn't really matter that he'd leave behind 30 million in dead cap this year, as between salary and bonuses, it's costs them over 35 to keep him.

Again, not in any way saying it's a route they will take, or even explore. But strictly dollars and cents? It'd save money..which puts it into the realm of reasonable speculation, given the other factors

It does matter though because if he were to say force his way out we would have to eat the dead money and he would be gone and the savings would only be 6 million dollars and it would create a big hole. That is the big difference between this year(save 6 mill) and next(save 22 mill).

 

[TREFF]

It does matter though because if he were to say force his way out we would have to eat the dead money and he would be gone and the savings would only be 6 million dollars and it would create a big hole. That is the big difference between this year(save 6 mill) and next(save 22 mill).

But it's not a big hole..its a hole they very well may have planned for with that draft pick last year, and they're spending that money no matter what way they go, so they aren't technically eating anything. Houston would "eat" 5-6 million trading Watson, and it would leave a hole. Green Bay..maybe a hole, maybe the door to the future, maybe that 6 mill helps re-sign someone that would definitely leave a hole. I have zero thoughts they'd cut him, just jokes no sense..but trade??? When you've got Love..the supposed future locked up for a cheap 4 years, a rookie RB who looks to be pretty decent, Adam's still young, and a potential haul of 2-3 #1's, maybe a couple 2's or something like that, which could potentially be the beginnings of a dynasty?? Ya gotta at least entertain the possibility if you're a smart GM.
I hated my Cowboys trading away H. Walker, one of my all time fav's, but look where it put the Cowboys in the 90's. I wasn't happy my Raiders traded away Cooper and K. Mack, but that could've been the start of something major too..except Chucky totally EFFED the draft, in true Raider fashion.

As a GM, the possibility that trading Rodgers could set you up as a dominant team for a decade (if Love IS the future, and you have faith that you're better in the draft than the friggin Raiders) cannot be dismissed just because it looks bad to eat the contract of a guy who won't be there. But cutting him, that makes zero sense, unless Rodgers decides he rely is pissed off and won't play for them..something I've seen nor heard any indication of.

That's all I'm saying..not that they should, not that thry will, but that it isn't necessarily such a bad idea that it can be unilaterally dismissed without a second thought, and that's why it has traction, and will continue to have traction for awhile.

 

[Trudem]

But it's not a big hole..its a hole they very well may have planned for with that draft pick last year, and they're spending that money no matter what way they go, so they aren't technically eating anything. Houston would "eat" 5-6 million trading Watson, and it would leave a hole. Green Bay..maybe a hole, maybe the door to the future, maybe that 6 mill helps re-sign someone that would definitely leave a hole. I have zero thoughts they'd cut him, just jokes no sense..but trade??? When you've got Love..the supposed future locked up for a cheap 4 years, a rookie RB who looks to be pretty decent, Adam's still young, and a potential haul of 2-3 #1's, maybe a couple 2's or something like that, which could potentially be the beginnings of a dynasty?? Ya gotta at least entertain the possibility if you're a smart GM.
I hated my Cowboys trading away H. Walker, one of my all time fav's, but look where it put the Cowboys in the 90's. I wasn't happy my Raiders traded away Cooper and K. Mack, but that could've been the start of something major too..except Chucky totally EFFED the draft, in true Raider fashion.

As a GM, the possibility that trading Rodgers could set you up as a dominant team for a decade (if Love IS the future, and you have faith that you're better in the draft than the friggin Raiders) cannot be dismissed just because it looks bad to eat the contract of a guy who won't be there. But cutting him, that makes zero sense, unless Rodgers decides he rely is pissed off and won't play for them..something I've seen nor heard any indication of.

That's all I'm saying..not that they should, not that thry will, but that it isn't necessarily such a bad idea that it can be unilaterally dismissed without a second thought, and that's why it has traction, and will continue to have traction for awhile.

I wont say there is a 0% chance of it happening, short of Rodgers forcing it ala Watson right now, but I will say 99% it wont happen. The only chance would be a king's ransom and thats if they have seen enough from Love in very limited reps.

 

[leftypower]

Id say it's possible but ONLY if he can take Adams with him. ......

 

[leftypower]

Stop it. Rodgers isnt angling for anything. Jesus

The national media have kicked this into overdrive

With that said, the expected cap was supposed to drop to 175 but recent murmurs have it around 190. Where that figure lands is very important for many teams, especially competitive ones.

They got nothing else to do right now - and it is sooo very typical of them to create a 'story' where little substance exists. ...

 

[averagejoe]

But the other scenario is that some of the more elite players may want to go to contending teams - teams who may not have the cap space.

Other players will just want to cash in... and will land on bad teams.

At some point, i think there will have to be some compromises. I can foresee some egos getting hurt.

Cant wait.

 

[Trudem]

They got nothing else to do right now - and it is sooo very typical of them to create a 'story' where little substance exists. ...

Every year

 

[Barilko]

I’ll I will say is Thanks Boys

Reading this input sure as hell is more insightful and interesting than the crap the talking heads spit out on my TV

 

[BigKen]

First, rthere are a bunch of legal issues that the league must follow and the single biggest threat is Anti-Trust. They thought about holding the cap at $198.6M until 2024 and figured that the revenue losses for 2020 would be made up and they'd be able to pop the cork and and increase the cap to $230M in 2024. Then the lawyers got involved. They wanted the league to take a massive hit in 2021 and take the cap all the way back to $138M and suffer a single year, but ownership would have nothing to do with a $60M cut that would decimate teams.

A lot of numbers have been tossed around but the number that seems to work best and would allow most teams to have some financial flexibility is $180M. At $180M it's very possible that the league might be able to move the cap up to $193-198M in 2022 if revenues rebound. If revenues don't reach the 2019 levels, the cap cannot be reset at the 2020 level of $198.6.

Nobody need this vaccine to be plugged into 250M arms as much as the NFL.

As far as 2021 goes, there's no question that there are few teams in what could oinly be described as worse than Cap Hell. The Saints are in the worst position at +$96M. A bigger problem for players is that no team can give a new contract expecting that the cap will go up 15-20% every year. Free agent contracts will be very level and much lower than previously. Even teams with a pile of cash will not spend to the cap and will hold back a bit. For teams that do have cash, it will mean that they can sign players for as much as 20-25% below the record levels set in 2019-20.

As a Patriots fan, they have roughly $62M and I expect Belichick to sign as many as 8 free agents and more than likely trade Stephon Gilmore and have money in the bank in November.

 

[BigKen]

Agents are saying that they are being told that players will only sign one year contracts and hope that the cap rebounds in 2022. They may be in for a surprise and teams with money are not going to pay them top dollar and lose them the next year.

The Jags, Jets, Colts and patriots have the largest amounts to spend. The only team that may overspend is the Jets because the AFC East will be brutal. Bills have pretty much got everyone in place. The Dolphins are loaded and may get Deshaun Watson. The Patriots are reloading and the big mystery is who the QB will be. The Jets have the #2 pick and a huge pile of cash to spend.

Teams must have the cap number no later than Saturday 3////13 because the tampering period starts Sunday.

Best guess is $180M, but only if the 2020 revenues can support it.

 

[averagejoe]

Gonna hijack my own thread.

Yes, its early, but is there anyone besides Watson you might avoid in redrafts?