2019 MLB Draft

[calsnowskier]

The 21st round pick, Bryce Fehmel, has signed and is on the AZL Black squad.

That leaves the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 8th, 11th, 25th, 27th, 28th, 32nd and 34th-40th round picks unsigned. I don't expect many of those guys from the 25th round on to sign. The 11th round pick is shaky as well. Hopefully, we can get the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 8th round guys locked up.

There were the stories just a couple days after the draft that the #11 had already signed. I wonder the story behind that was.

 

[calsnowskier]

From Gs website:
SAN FRANCISCO -- The Giants have officially signed their top two picks from their 2019 Draft class, reaching agreements with Arizona State outfielder Hunter Bishop and Louisville first baseman Logan Wyatt on Saturday.

Bishop, the 10th overall pick of the 2019 Draft, signed for $4.1 million, more than $600,000 below slot value, according to MLB Pipeline's Jim Callis. Wyatt, a second-round selection, also signed an under-slot deal worth $1 million.

While I still want 4, 8 and 11, if we stop now, it can be considered a successful signing stage.

 

[SFGRTB]

While I still want 4, 8 and 11, if we stop now, it can be considered a successful signing stage.

Giants have signed all of their top-10 picks (which is very, very key). Likely the only one they'll get post 10th round is 11th round pick Trevor McDonald.

 

[LHG]

Giants signed a 2nd NDFA - pitcher Austin Reich, a 6 ft 3 in righthander from Northwestern State.

 

[SFGRTB]

Giants have signed their top 24 picks now.

 

[LHG]

Simon Whiteman (9th) is the first 2019 draft pick to make it to Augusta. He replaced Jett Manning (2018, 20th), who was released by the org.
Interestingly enough, none of the 13 pitchers who were drafted and signed this year have made it, yet, past the AZL. Five of them are on the AZL Black squad, 7 of them are on the AZL Orange squad and one (Trevor McDonald) hasn't been assigned to a team yet.

 

[LHG]

I know that we typically review drafts 5 years later but I wanted to circle back to this draft as this was the first day by the FZ regime and the last draft to go 40 rounds.
So where are we, 4 years later, on this draft class? It looks fairly weak, with some notable exceptions. Of the 40 players drafted, the Giants signed 29 of them. In addition, they signed 2 NDFAs. Out of those 31 players signed, 24 are still active in professional baseball and 16 are still in the Giants' organization.
How many have made it to the big leagues? 2 - And one did so with the Chicago Cubs (Caleb Kilian, 8th round pick).
Let's take a look at the 16 guys still in the organization, in draft order:
1st round pick - Hunter Bishop - He is more likely to be in indy ball next year than in the big leagues, at this point. His numbers, when healthy, have been underwhelming. And he is injured a lot. This pick is looking a lot like a bust.
2nd round pick - Logan Wyatt - Wyatt finally made it to AA this year but his hitting leaves a lot to be desired. He does have a combined .798 OPS between Eugene and Richmond this year but that isn't very good for a 1st base only player.
3rd round pick - Grant McCray - Now here is a player may not be a bust. McCray seemed like an overdraft when he was first picked in 2019, and while his progress up the farm chain has been slow, it has shown some promise. However, his offense is looking not as good this year with Eugene (.747 OPS). He is young (22 years old) but if his offensive numbers continue to decline, he may never make the big leagues (or just get a cup of coffee here and there). He is highly rated, so he may yet turn around the numbers.
4th round pick - Tyler Fitzgerald - We finally have a guy on this list who has made it to the AAA level and is succeeding. With the exception of a 19 game stint in Augusta in 2019 and his 2022 season with Richmond, he has posted an OPS of .800 or better throughout his career. That includes an OPS of .822 in 52 games with Sacramento. He plays primarily at shortstop but has had some playing time at 2nd base, 3rd base and, with Sacramento, center field.
5th round pick - Garrett Frechette - Another 1st base only guy (with some limited action in the outfield), Frechette has done nothing but NOT hit. His career OPS of .678 is a testament to that. He is young (22 years old) but the fact that he cannot even hit in low A San Jose is troubling. In fact, he's gotten demoted to the ACL in both 2021 and 2023 due to lack of hitting. I've got to think that he won't be in the org much longer. Maybe one more shot in 2024.
6th round pick - Dilan Rosario - A middle infielder, with a typical middle infielder's bat, Rosario has been stuck mainly in the lower minors. He spent the first 3 years of his professional career (4 if you count 2020) in the ACL, only escaping to low A San Jose last year. He has filled in as an emergency player for both Sacramento and Richmond but has otherwise played most of the year with San Jose. He looks like the org guy who bounces around to different teams as needed.
9th round pick - Simon Whiteman - Another middle infielder, Whiteman has occasionally shown decent hitting but it must be his glove and versatility that has moved him as high as Richmond, where he has played all or parts of the last 3 years at. Initially, he has played primarily at 2nd base but has played 6 positions this year, all but pitcher, catcher and 1st base. He also looks to be an org filler.
11th round pick - Trevor McDonald - Hey, our first pitcher of the group! A gamble high school pick, as cal pointed out in 2019, McDonald simply has not stayed healthy, throwing 183.2 IP in 52 games since 2019. He has been decent he can pick (10.2 K, 1.345 WHIP, 3.09 ERA for his career) but has barely made it to high A ball, throwing in a total of 3 games between last year and this year. He is on a rehab assignment in the ACL. If he can stay healthy, he may turn out to be a good pick.
12th round pick - Chris Wright - Another guy who has reached AAA and another pitcher, Wright has generally looked good until he got to Sacramento this year, where he has hit a buzzsaw. His ERA (5.08), WHIP (1.835) and BB/9 (8.6) all look concerning. However, he does have a good K/9 (13.7) so if he can figure out the control he may be a decent bullpen piece.
14th round pick - Nick Morreale - This pitcher looks like he has stalled out at high A ball. He was actually decent with Eugene last year (3.33 ERA, 1.204 WHIP, 10.7 K/9) but was sent back in 2023 and his numbers have gotten significantly worse (4.98, 1.431, but 11.0 K/9). Not sure how much longer he'll be in the org.
15th round pick - Carter Aldrete - The son of a former Giant farmhand and nephew of another, Aldrete looked like a possible steal at one point. Last year with Eugene, he posted a slash line of .289/.369/.546 in 74 games, earning a promotion to Richmond toward the end of last year. In 106 games with Richmond since then, he has hit only .239/.298/.413. Yes, it is AA but more guys are hitting there than they used to so he may not make it to the big leagues as a corner infielder.
16th round pick - Brandon Martorano - A catcher, Martorano has handled the bat pretty well, until last year. He has posted an OPS of .850 in 61 games from rookie to advanced A ball but only an OPS of .682 in AA. Maybe another guy who stalls out at AA.
17th round pick - Connor Cannon - The third 1st base only player the Giants drafted in 2019, Cannon had been traded to the Yankees, only to get reacquired this past off-season. He has yet to play this year due to injury and isn't expected to play at all in 2023. His career could be finished. It is too bad because he actually looked really good in his debut season but has played in only 43 games since 2019 and all of them were last year.
18th round pick - Cole Waites - Hey look, we finally got to a guy who has played in the big leagues! Waites' 2022 season was phenomenal, going all the way from Eugene to San Francisco. As good as he looked last year, he has not looked good at all this year. Another casualty of the RiverCats' pitching curse, he is likely not to pitch the rest of the year due to injury.
19th round pick - Kanoa Pagan - A younger college pitcher who signed with the Giants, Pagan has looked good in limited looks in rookie ball but struggled in his brief time with San Jose in 2021. He spent most of last year and all of this year on the restricted list.
26th round pick - Nick Avila - The lowest pick to still be with the org from the 2019 draft, Avila didn't look like he had much of a future after the 2021 season. He had just finished the year with Eugene, where he had mediocre ERA (6.51), WHIP (1.605) and K/9 (9.2) numbers. Yet the Giants kept him and he rewarded them with a phenomenal 2022 season split between Eugene and Richmond (combined 1.14 ERA, 0.976 WHIP, 9.4 K/9). Yet the Giants left him exposed in the Rule 5 draft, where the White Sox took him. Fortunately, the Giants got him back and he has held his own in AAA this year. While the numbers aren't fantastic (3.80 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 8.4 K/9), considering the numbers of most of his fellow pitchers, they are pretty good.

In summary, it looks like, as of now, the Giants may get a backup infielder, possibly a 4th outfielder and 2 to 3 bullpen pieces from this draft (oh, and 2 months of Kris Bryant). Underwhelming, to say the least.

 

[calsnowskier]

Awesome writeup!

I think serious analysis can start 2-3 years after the draft (we can BEGIN looking at the ‘21 draft now, for example), so doing a deep dive into the ‘19 draft is absolutely reasonable. I wouldn’t state with any conviction that a draft is a bust or a boon until AT LEAST 5 years later (so the ‘19 draft is realistically now into that neighborhood), but I think reviews are valid until the book closes on all drafted players (so we still can’t fully close the book on the ‘07 draft yet).

 

[LHG]

Awesome writeup!

I think serious analysis can start 2-3 years after the draft (we can BEGIN looking at the ‘21 draft now, for example), so doing a deep dive into the ‘19 draft is absolutely reasonable. I wouldn’t state with any conviction that a draft is a bust or a boon until AT LEAST 5 years later (so the ‘19 draft is realistically now into that neighborhood), but I think reviews are valid until the book closes on all drafted players (so we still can’t fully close the book on the ‘07 draft yet).

I will say that there is time still for some of the drafted guys to get better. Maybe Wyatt starts hitting better in 2024. Maybe McDonald gets it all together and stays healthy in 2024. That's part of the fun of baseball, seeing the surprises.
I am excited to see what Fitzgerald can do in the big leagues (if he gets a chance, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a trade this month). But, generally, this draft is turning out to be a big dud.

So, is someone going to write up a review of the 2006 draft? I think all of those players are out of baseball.

 

[calsnowskier]

I will say that there is time still for some of the drafted guys to get better. Maybe Wyatt starts hitting better in 2024. Maybe McDonald gets it all together and stays healthy in 2024. That's part of the fun of baseball, seeing the surprises.
I am excited to see what Fitzgerald can do in the big leagues (if he gets a chance, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a trade this month). But, generally, this draft is turning out to be a big dud.

So, is someone going to write up a review of the 2006 draft? I think all of those players are out of baseball.

I would say there are still 6 “prospects” in that class…

Wyatt
McCray
Fitzgerald
Aldrete
Waites
Avila

McCray has flirted with top 100 lists over the last couple years. I am personally not convinced he is anything yet, but people “in the know” tend to like him, so he is on my radar.

Fitzgerald seems to have the highest floor of this group. I think it is a safe bet he will AT LEAST get a cuppo, but will it be with the Giants?

Waites and Avila are 2 lottery tickets that currently look good, but TINSTAAPP.

Wyatt was a 2nd rounder and is still around, but I don’t really see him doing anything.

Aldrete is kinda a Duffy-like wildcard.

At this point, this class definitely looks more like a bust than a boon. But if we can trade Fitz for a piece and/or 2 of McCray/Waites/Avila become replacement or better, than the draft won’t be a complete waste.

 

[calsnowskier]

Of the first 16 picks of the 2019 draft, only 3 players have yet make it to the majors…

2 of those 3 are with the Giants. Hunter Bishop and Will Wilson.

In a class that was so epically well scouted by the league as a whole, the Giants scouted it badly on an equally epic level.

 

[LHG]

Of the first 16 picks of the 2019 draft, only 3 players have yet make it to the majors…

2 of those 3 are with the Giants. Hunter Bishop and Will Wilson.

In a class that was so epically well scouted by the league as a whole, the Giants scouted it badly on an equally epic level.

Wilson's shine is fall rapidly too. Third straight year in AA and he is hitting worse there this year, since his demotion, then he did last year.