2019-20 Quest for the cup(The Carter Hart era begins)

[FlyerFinFan]

I agree with his role now is just what he is a 5/6 but i would never agree to a trade of a 2nd and 3rd round for a 5/6 actually a 6. I do disagree with Myers not being ready. He was ready all along. I also disagree about our PK. Our PK is only good because of Hayes and his partner up front then we come in with Couts and his partner up front. Those guys have been invaluable on the PK.

Bottom line is a IMO a 2nd and a 3rd round pick was way too much for Braun For that price we could've gotten a much better defenseman.

Remember when the Flyers were on their cup run and Parent was sooooo weak that they virtually lost because of the lack of D depth? I'm of the opinion that you can never have enough experienced dmen especially those that have made it to the finals. He can play 3-4 if needed but is perfectly cast as a 5-6. At the start of the year some of these young dmen were a little scary vets like Niskanen helped them get through it but theres no way to predict how they will react to the playoffs.

So two guys make the third best pk gotcha. I always thought it was a team game? Who would have known. Besides didn't you rip the Hayes signing even though he was specifically brought in for the pk role and leadership? Score some key goals from time to time. FA or vets always cost more but I sure feel more comfortable than just going with rookies hoping that they will figure it out immediately.

 

[lasgop8]

The Colorado Avalanche could trade for Taylor Hall as early as this week
Wish we could make this move.

Im hearing Boston is in the mix as well as Pitt.

 

[lasgop8]

Remember when the Flyers were on their cup run and Parent was sooooo weak that they virtually lost because of the lack of D depth? I'm of the opinion that you can never have enough experienced dmen especially those that have made it to the finals. He can play 3-4 if needed but is perfectly cast as a 5-6. At the start of the year some of these young dmen were a little scary vets like Niskanen helped them get through it but theres no way to predict how they will react to the playoffs.

So two guys make the third best pk gotcha. I always thought it was a team game? Who would have known. Besides didn't you rip the Hayes signing even though he was specifically brought in for the pk role and leadership? Score some key goals from time to time. FA or vets always cost more but I sure feel more comfortable than just going with rookies hoping that they will figure it out immediately.

Im sorry i dont go as far back to remember Parent but i have to assume the game has changed a little since then so that comparison doesn't hold up.If me saying we shouldn't have given Hayes both years and money that we should gave him one or the other is ripping the signing than so be it i still stand by that. BTW its 4 players as my post said Hayes and his partner and the Couts and his partner.We have an experienced defenseman in Nisky who's been to the finals why do we need two especially at a cost of a 2nd and a 3rd and blocking a young defenseman at the same time.

 

[awaz]

Braun is 4th on the team in SHTOI (3rd dman). I think he's definitely played a role in it improving. How big a role is tough to gage. Hayes is obviously a huge addition to the PK as well, he's 3rd on the team in SHTOI (1st fwd) and you can't discount coaching changes.

Goalie play gets sighted a lot, but I would say it hasn't been THAT big of a difference on the PK. They're at about .879 sv% this year compared to .859 last year. Using last years shots against, that's 7 fewer goals allowed over the course of a season based on goalie play.

For me, I'm happy they added Braun. I think he brings a good presence. I think he allows Sanheim to activate more, which we've seen a lot more of lately. And I think he's a big benefit to the PK.

I do think the Flyers probably overpaid for him a bit. A 2nd and a 3rd when the Sharks needed to clear the room anyway, is a little steep. But, I'd rather they have traded a 2nd and 3rd for Braun, then to not have made a move and rolled with Prov/Niskanen/Sanheim/Hagg/Ghost/Myers. I think Braun is better than Hagg on a nightly basis and can be trusted higher in the lineup when necessary. I also think it's a big benefit to have 7 guys that can play a regular shift on defense. And considering the Flyers collective age and our desire to start winning, a 2nd and a 3rd doesn't wind me up too much.

 

[awaz]

Data is outdated, but from 2000-2009, only 44% of 2nd round picks played 50 or more games in the NHL. And only 30% of those chosen in the 3rd round or later, played 50 games in the NHL. The graph also shows the chances of getting an NHL player out of draft pick return. For a 2nd and 3rd, it looks like it's about a 60% chance of getting an NHL player. And that's just playing 50 games, a pretty low bar to be considered impactful.

Playing the percentages in the NHL Draft - TSN.ca

This one also gives a decent evaluation of draft pick number and the value of that pick, again, a little outdated: Cullen: Updated NHL Draft Pick Values, Observations

So, again, I think they probably overpaid a bit for Braun. But they basically gave up a 60% chance to get one NHL player (of TBD impact) from those draft picks. That's not a huge loss, especially considering all the young talent already on the team and in the system.

 

[lasgop8]

Could a prospect be nearing a return to Flyers?

We really could use Patrick back in the line up.

 

[lasgop8]

Braun is 4th on the team in SHTOI (3rd dman). I think he's definitely played a role in it improving. How big a role is tough to gage. Hayes is obviously a huge addition to the PK as well, he's 3rd on the team in SHTOI (1st fwd) and you can't discount coaching changes.

Goalie play gets sighted a lot, but I would say it hasn't been THAT big of a difference on the PK. They're at about .879 sv% this year compared to .859 last year. Using last years shots against, that's 7 fewer goals allowed over the course of a season based on goalie play.

For me, I'm happy they added Braun. I think he brings a good presence. I think he allows Sanheim to activate more, which we've seen a lot more of lately. And I think he's a big benefit to the PK.

I do think the Flyers probably overpaid for him a bit. A 2nd and a 3rd when the Sharks needed to clear the room anyway, is a little steep. But, I'd rather they have traded a 2nd and 3rd for Braun, then to not have made a move and rolled with Prov/Niskanen/Sanheim/Hagg/Ghost/Myers. I think Braun is better than Hagg on a nightly basis and can be trusted higher in the lineup when necessary. I also think it's a big benefit to have 7 guys that can play a regular shift on defense. And considering the Flyers collective age and our desire to start winning, a 2nd and a 3rd doesn't wind me up too much.

I 100% disagree. If Hagg were out there on a nightly basis he would've developed further. Braun is blocking his development and Braun doesn't do anything out there that Hagg wouldn't be able to do just as well if give the chance.

You also say your happy they added a player that has 0 goals 5 assts and is minus 11 for a 2nd and a 3rd rounder. That is nuts.

 

[lasgop8]

Data is outdated, but from 2000-2009, only 44% of 2nd round picks played 50 or more games in the NHL. And only 30% of those chosen in the 3rd round or later, played 50 games in the NHL. The graph also shows the chances of getting an NHL player out of draft pick return. For a 2nd and 3rd, it looks like it's about a 60% chance of getting an NHL player. And that's just playing 50 games, a pretty low bar to be considered impactful.

Playing the percentages in the NHL Draft - TSN.ca

This one also gives a decent evaluation of draft pick number and the value of that pick, again, a little outdated: Cullen: Updated NHL Draft Pick Values, Observations

So, again, I think they probably overpaid a bit for Braun. But they basically gave up a 60% chance to get one NHL player (of TBD impact) from those draft picks. That's not a huge loss, especially considering all the young talent already on the team and in the system.

60% chance to get a solid NHLer is low bar???

Have you had martinis for lunch today?

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Im sorry i dont go as far back to remember Parent but i have to assume the game has changed a little since then so that comparison doesn't hold up.If me saying we shouldn't have given Hayes both years and money that we should gave him one or the other is ripping the signing than so be it i still stand by that. BTW its 4 players as my post said Hayes and his partner and the Couts and his partner.We have an experienced defenseman in Nisky who's been to the finals why do we need two especially at a cost of a 2nd and a 3rd and blocking a young defenseman at the same time.

The point was Parent was a promising young dman injuries struck in the playoffs and he was forced to be out there. He wasn't close to handling the pressure the Hawks took complete advantage of him cost Philly a cup. I don't care what era this happened in as I never want to see it again. Draft picks to give depth now is a no brainer. This also bumps Hagg down but at least he can fill in when necessary instead of being forced in there daily.

As per Hayes they weren't getting him without term and salary everyone knows that FA you have to overpay. Is he perfect no but he fills a much needed need. Either way to say that you only need forwards to kill penalties is ridiculous man. Look at how badly AMac and the rookies did the past few years it's night and day.

 

[lasgop8]

The point was Parent was a promising young dman injuries struck in the playoffs and he was forced to be out there. He wasn't close to handling the pressure the Hawks took complete advantage of him cost Philly a cup. I don't care what era this happened in as I never want to see it again. Draft picks to give depth now is a no brainer. This also bumps Hagg down but at least he can fill in when necessary instead of being forced in there daily.

As per Hayes they weren't getting him without term and salary everyone knows that FA you have to overpay. Is he perfect no but he fills a much needed need. Either way to say that you only need forwards to kill penalties is ridiculous man. Look at how badly AMac and the rookies did the past few years it's night and day.

Im not saying you only need forwards to kill penalties but on this team the forwards i mentioned do 95% of the penalty killing especially since Braun's shot/dump out isn't strong enough to clear the puck out of thye defensive zone most times so the forwards have to do more work.

Braun doesn't do anything that Hagg wouldn't be able to do if he was in the line up and Hagg would develop as part of our future which Braun isnt.

 

[awaz]

60% chance to get a solid NHLer is low bar???

Have you had martinis for lunch today?

You're misunderstanding what I was trying to say there. 60% chance to get a player that plays 50 NHL games. 50 NHL games is the low bar. There's lots of players that have played at least 50 games that suck, just like there's a lot of them that have been 'solid'. There's no data in that article about what type of NHL you get (all star, 6th dman, 13th forward, hall of famer, etc).

The data says, with a 2nd and 3rd round pick, there is a 60% chance of getting 1 player that plays at least 50 NHL games.

Alternatively, the data says with a 2nd and 3rd round pick, there is a 40% chance you get 0 players that will go on to play at least 50 NHL games.

 

[purdue81]

The point was Parent was a promising young dman injuries struck in the playoffs and he was forced to be out there. He wasn't close to handling the pressure the Hawks took complete advantage of him cost Philly a cup. I don't care what era this happened in as I never want to see it again. Draft picks to give depth now is a no brainer. This also bumps Hagg down but at least he can fill in when necessary instead of being forced in there daily.

As per Hayes they weren't getting him without term and salary everyone knows that FA you have to overpay. Is he perfect no but he fills a much needed need. Either way to say that you only need forwards to kill penalties is ridiculous man. Look at how badly AMac and the rookies did the past few years it's night and day.

So many things have changed it's hard to pin down a plus or minus on the individual moves....

Unquestionably this is a better team than last year. The team over paid, and gave up future players to get better. I don't think the future has been mortgaged though. I'm not CAP savvy, so I don't know what freight train is headed toward us in the next several years.

I hated the JVR deal from the onset.

 

[awaz]

I 100% disagree. If Hagg were out there on a nightly basis he would've developed further. Braun is blocking his development and Braun doesn't do anything out there that Hagg wouldn't be able to do just as well if give the chance.

You also say your happy they added a player that has 0 goals 5 assts and is minus 11 for a 2nd and a 3rd rounder. That is nuts.

Would he have though? Hagg is almost 25 and he's played 449 professional hockey games (170 in the NHL). And he has been given the chance. He was the 4th dman by TOI two seasons ago. Last year he was 5th. This year he's our 7th dman. Guys that are progressing and developing typically don't get demoted year after year.

 

[lasgop8]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/future-flyers-report-could-prospect-183507690.html

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Im not saying you only need forwards to kill penalties but on this team the forwards i mentioned do 95% of the penalty killing especially since Braun's shot/dump out isn't strong enough to clear the puck out of thye defensive zone most times so the forwards have to do more work.

Braun doesn't do anything that Hagg wouldn't be able to do if he was in the line up and Hagg would develop as part of our future which Braun isnt.

I think that you are severely undervalueing Brauns value to the pk and leadership. Hagg and others were atrocious last year and weren't getting better. Don't get me wrong I don't mind Hagg hopefully after watching Niskanen and Braun maybe he'll learn from them and take a few steps forward. Either way he is still decent depth you can't win a cup with only 6 dmen it's almost guaranteed that one or two will go down at some point and I'm glad that they are prepared. At least more so than on that cup run it was devastating when injuries hit cost them a cup.

Hayes and Couts have been fantastic you won't hear me say a peep to their value but the D is part of the package whether you believe it or not. You are not top 3 without contributions from everywhere.

 

[lasgop8]

Would he have though? Hagg is almost 25 and he's played 449 professional hockey games (170 in the NHL). And he has been given the chance. He was the 4th dman by TOI two seasons ago. Last year he was 5th. This year he's our 7th dman. Guys that are progressing and developing typically don't get demoted year after year.

The others guys are progressing better than Hagg but im not comparing them to Hagg. im comparing Braun and there is nothing i see that a 32 year old Braun does batter than a 25 year old Hagg and we didn't have to trade a 2nd and 3rd for Hagg. Also you always say it takes defensemn longer to develop why doesn't that apply in Haggs case?

 

[FlyerFinFan]

So many things have changed it's hard to pin down a plus or minus on the individual moves....

Unquestionably this is a better team than last year. The team over paid, and gave up future players to get better. I don't think the future has been mortgaged though. I'm not CAP savvy, so I don't know what freight train is headed toward us in the next several years.

I hated the JVR deal from the onset.

JVR is a conundrum as we know that he's better than this. I'm just hoping that he'll eventually go off. Hopefully in the playoffs and personally I don't care what line he's on if doing so. That's how you win when 3rd or 4th liners rip it up. Balance kills when it counts and when healthy they'll have a crazy good bottom 6.

 

[lasgop8]

I think that you are severely undervalueing Brauns value to the pk and leadership. Hagg and others were atrocious last year and weren't getting better. Don't get me wrong I don't mind Hagg hopefully after watching Niskanen and Braun maybe he'll learn from them and take a few steps forward. Either way he is still decent depth you can't win a cup with only 6 dmen it's almost guaranteed that one or two will go down at some point and I'm glad that they are prepared. At least more so than on that cup run it was devastating when injuries hit cost them a cup.

Hayes and Couts have been fantastic you won't hear me say a peep to their value but the D is part of the package whether you believe it or not. You are not top 3 without contributions from everywhere.

Heres is Brauns value that im undervaluing.

30 games
0 goals
5 assists
minus 11


FYI we are 5th in PK tied with two other teams and just .7 from being 11th

 

[FlyerFinFan]

The others guys are progressing better than Hagg but im not comparing them to Hagg. im comparing Braun and there is nothing i see that a 32 year old Braun does batter than a 25 year old Hagg and we didn't have to trade a 2nd and 3rd for Hagg. Also you always say it takes defensemn longer to develop why doesn't that apply in Haggs case?

That's where you are mistaken as Braun is a far better penalty killer than Hagg right now. Have you already forgotten how bad they were last year? PK killed them. He's also a leader in the dressing room. So if his plus goes up throughout the year after a bad start will that not change your argument?

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Heres is Brauns value that im undervaluing.

30 games
0 goals
5 assists
minus 11


FYI we are 5th in PK tied with two other teams and just .7 from being 11th

Killing penalties doesn't show up in the stats only for the unit which is a million times better than last season. 11th is a drastic improvement. Leadership on a young team is also invaluable. So you are saying that the Flyers should have stayed with last years pk group? What if injuries hit who plays then?