2018 Top Prospects

[MarcoPolo]

Actually, you are probably right about DL implications. "Active roster" means that you are able to play (not on DL) - "service time" is racked up when on a major league roster even when on the DL.

 

[LHG]

The research could have used more depth and they keep overrating Bryan Reynolds, but, nonetheless, I found this an interesting article:
Just how bad is having the worst farm system in baseball, really?

 

[SFGRTB]

Putting the finishing touches on my list. Per usual, I went way over board. Just can't get enough out of this stuff, even with a Giants system that is overall below average. Lots of intriguing pieces though. More so than in recent years. The Giants, contrary to popular belief, are actually pretty active internationally and I think they have finally found some solid pieces that can break this trend. Wouldn't be surprised if in two years the Giants top-5 is four international guys and their 2018 pick (I'm counting Ramos as international).

I'm going to post a little primer before I drop the list.

 

[SFGRTB]

So I'm going to post my top-11 guys in a list because I think there's a clear spot where the Giants' prospect shift, in my personal criteria. The top-11 (formerly 13 before the trades) have a combination of potential, risk and intangibles (such as mechanics, for instance) that favors their ranks over guys below them. From there I'm going to post more guys that I like. How many? We'll see. I'm up to 34 right now

How do I come up with this? A combination of live looks, extensive video looks, online sources' analysis and personal sources analysis.

The Giants' system is among one of the worst in baseball. Hearing that is disappointing, but at the same time there is so much talent in baseball that every team has plenty of interesting players in their system. The Giants, contrary to popular belief, have such talent as well. They lack a ton of high-end talent and what you could call "comfortable" bets (betting on any prospect isn't really comfortable, but there are some that make you feel better than others), but that doesn't mean there aren't interesting players down there.

Now more than ever minor league players are getting more exposure for the better. Teams are investing in the minors with the same technology they use for the major league teams. The data that tracks launch angles, spin rate, route efficiency etc. is being used throughout the minor leagues now, and while this information isn't readily available to the public, data does leak and analysis is becoming more accurate than ever. Prospects are learning adjustments earlier than they ever have, tweaking mechanics thanks to widely available video.

This all applies to the Giants too. They've always invested heavily in the minor leagues and showed a willingness to learn and adjust themselves, as shown with the recent minor league upheaval. This upcoming season will be more exciting than ever with new minor league coaches and philosophies spreading over a draft class with good early returns, an upcoming draft where the Giants pick second every round and a very interesting group of Dominican League players expected to jump state-side. The Giants are also tied to one of the best international players in the next signing cycle.

The Giants' minor league system is already interesting if your willing to dig in a little bit, but it's about to get a lot more intrigue. Normally filled with older, college based prospects, the Giants soon look to pepper their ranks with a number of teenage and young 20-year olds. This list is going to look drastically difference come July with a number of the prospects towards the top looking to graduate, and a number of breakout candidates looking to blow up.

At the top, the Giants are composed mostly of starting pitchers and outfielders who are ready or near-ready to help the big club. The Giants also have a collection of relievers who can step in and potentially help. In a good way, the Giants have a number of prospects to assist the current big league club with injuries and general depth, though perhaps not many of these guys will be part of the Giants' next true competitive window. As mentioned above many of the Giants' prospects are older, 24-25 years old. Not to discount those players, they are certainly potentially good players that I hold in high regard, but likely no game changers. The next noteworthy wave is still a few years away, hopefully led by the kid who leads this list.

1. Heliot Ramos
2. Tyler Beede
3. Chris Shaw
4. Steven Duggar
5. Austin Slater
6. Andrew Suarez
7. Garrett Williams
8. Sandro Fabian
9. Shaun Anderson
10. Aramis Garcia
11. Jacob Gonzalez

 

[SFGRTB]

SFGRTB's Top Prospects:

1. Heliot Ramos (OF) - I personally don't care that he hasn't played above the AZL. This kid has the highest ceiling in system right now and it's not particularly close. If there was a redraft right now of the 2017 draft, Heliot (pronounced Ee-liot) would be a top-10, perhaps top-5 pick. There also aren't many better prospects out there with better power projection and I'm not exaggerating (different from power potential). Giants truly got a stud on their hands. This isn’t a case of a player getting overhyped in a bad system, Ramos is a gem.

2. Tyler Beede (P) - Tough to rank these next two for me but I go with Beede for reasons I'll state for Shaw. Overall I think there was a lot of good and a lot of bad with Beede's season. The numbers are pretty bleh but there are many cases where the PCL plays a factor. The stuff seems to come and go with him, but when he's on he throws a heavy fastball and cutter most often, generating plenty of groundballs. A reason I think he's best suited for the rotation is because his fastball plays better there. A heavy fastball isn't as useful in the Pen (unless you're a lefty, like Affeldt) where you typically look for more swings and misses. If Beede develops a chanegup, he'll get more swings and misses off that than his fastball, making him more useful as a starter and fulfill his #3 starter ceiling. In the Pen he'll never learn a changeup, and likely would be no more than another Gearrin.

(Formerly Christian Arroyo’s spot)

3. Chris Shaw (LF) - Went with Beede over Shaw because I believe more in Beede's ability to develop a changeup than I do Shaw's ability to translate to AT&T. It's not really fair to rank a prospect based on their park but I don't care, it's my list. I'm a huge fan of Shaw. He has huge power potential and good contact rate to give him tremendous power projection. The strikeouts in AAA were definitely concerning, but he similarly started off slow in A+ and AA before taking off late. My problem with him is I can't shake the sinking feeling that AT&T will destroy his value. LHH slow OFer is not a winning combination for SF. He has good value as a prospect, perhaps more somewhere else. Shaw does have power to all fields which helps. Also I'm not too worried about his defense. I think with more reps he becomes passable in LF. He's an OFer, though, as 1st base did not go well. Also I'm willing to bet within 3 years there will be a universal DH and he’ll be fine.

4. Steven Duggar (CF/RF) - My boy. Been pimping him for some time now. Projected back in 2016 he'd be the starting CFer/RFer by this season. I'm going to double down and say he's the opening day CFer this year. I think his floor is a 5th OFer, Gregor Blanco lite. Ceiling is perhaps an Adam Eaton type. Profile fits better in CF but in AT&T fits RF just fine.

(Formerly Bryan Reynolds’ spot)

5. Austin Slater (OF) - Just barely qualifies for this list, thought about not including him, but what the hey. The "Matt Duffy" of the outfield isn't really fair to Duffy because Duffman was an excellent defender while Slater is just average out there, depending where he is. Fine in LF, okay in RF, emergency only in CF. The bat profile is where the major similarities begin. Two guys who's swings and approach in college were broken by their respective coaching staffs, rebuilt by the Giants' staffs and grew at every step. The bat skills are real and there's power there for double-digit homers. So why does he rank below Duggar and Reynolds? Slater doesn't excel in anything (Duggar excels in at least two things), and has just a little less versatility than the others (Reynolds can switch hit, better defensive OFer). Still feels very safe if he's healthy (which may be a concern, I think I saw he had a setback). If he's helthy should be competing for a spot on the 25 man, and depending on the offseason could be the LFer.

6. Andrew Suarez (LHP) - Has four pitches but usually sticks with his fastball and slider. Low 90s with his fastball with tail.Throws the slider to righties and lefties and uses it as his primary K pitch. In my eyes he's always ranked above Blach because he has greater strikeout potential. Great feel for pitching, no huge command issues. Fields his position well. Solid back-end lefty.

7. Garrett Williams (LHP) - Drafted in 2016 as a lefty out of Oklahoma State in the middle rounds with a 95+ fastball and nasty curveball, there had to be something that caused him to fall. It was his command and control. He had none, that is. Still the Giants swooped him up because the potential was too tantalizing, a lefty with two plus pitches in the 7th round? Why not. The early returns have been very good so far. First the Giants cleaned up his delivery. In college he had this almost Kershaw-like hesitation rock-back (which makes a lot of sense, I'm sure he was trying to emulate him). Now he's nice and smooth, always moving forward. Next the Giants had him harness his stuff. He's throwing a sinker and cutter in the low 90s which has been a terrific pitch for him and generating groundballs and also helping him command the ball. The next development for him will be refining his changeup. Whether he ends up in the Pen or rotation will be a big part of his development of a changeup, which is why I rank him below Suarez. Should he remain a starter, there's mid-rotation upside here. Good value.

Here's his college, Kershaw-like rock (hard to see, best video I could find and clip for a gif):

Here's his new mechanics:

Just real simple, no wasted motion. Has him throwing strikes.

 

[SFGRTB]

8. Sandro Fabian (OF) - Hit .277 in his first full-season out of the Dominican Republic as a 19 year old, which is a huge accomplishment. Granted that came with a 2% walk rate that even Sandoval would tell the kid to calm down. The walk rate has more to do with the belief that he can hit anything than it does an utter lack of understanding of the strike zone though, which is good news because he does have a special ability to barrel up the ball. He hit .333/.353/.505 from July onward. He doesn't have big time power but he'll hit a lot of line drives to all fields. He also was a tremendous defender in RF with a good arm. He fits the RF in AT&T park nicely as a right-handed hitter and athletic defender. He'll be just 20 years old in San Jose next year.

9. Shaun Anderson (RHP) - Low-mid 90s fastball with late sink that just gets off the barrel of the bat. Sharp biting slider that just falls off the table at the last second. More than a "show-me" changeup that compliments his fastball well. 12-6 over the top curveball (though the Giants didn't have him throwing that in the limited starts). A full arsenal of pitches that are average-to-plus with good command and a starting pitchers' body. So why is he ranked so low? I need to see more of him. He's also a tad old for the Cal-League. His GB% and K% weren't elite either. But there's a really good pitcher here, not a thrower. His slider really took off when he joined the Giants, excited to see more of it. I mean look at this thing:

That's major leaguer Yunel Escobar. Thing just explodes late.

I think he's a fast mover. Outside shot to see the big leagues next September.

10. Aramis Garcia (C) - Drafted as an offense-first catcher, his defense has actually progressed faster than his offense so far to a point where I think it's a better tool for him. That actually might play into his favor as well. A good defensive backup catcher is vital, and if he can pop a homerun off every once in awhile that is a huge plus. He's been really unlucky with injuries in his career, most haven't even been when he's catching either. He's a really good person as well and I think will become a fan-favorite. I think he can be a really good backup to Buster Posey, but I don't think the Giants' catcher of the future is in the organization yet. AKA, the Giants aren't moving Posey any time soon.

11. Jacob Gonzalez (3B) - Giants are high on him, but there’s a lot of pressure on his bat especially if he needs to move to 1st base. His bat does have pretty good potential though. As a right-handed hitter his profile at least fits for AT&T too. He doesn’t need to sell out for power and has a good feel for hitting with more of a line drive approach as of now, as well as a good approach (8% walk rate, 11% K-rate in the AZL). He is older for his class though, which could play into those numbers. The bat ceiling is intriguing, 20/30+ homer potential with a high BA/OBP depending on his approach. Unless the kid totally crushes it, or unexpected becomes a good defender at 3rd, he’ll likely always be undervalued a la Chris Shaw, including me until I see it in a full-season league. Just tons of pressure on the bat.

I think this is a pretty clear top-11 (was top 13) for the Giants’ system. From here I’m going to list guys, in a semblance of order, of guys I like. Most will be grouped based on certain criteria, like a string of relievers, or utility type guys, or international guys. All of these players are interesting in their own ways, but the Giants have a ton of wildcards that just make it tough to say this guy should be ahead of this guy. Alex Canario might be listed ahead of Garrett Cave, but I don’t necessarily think one guy is clearly better, yet.

A good way to look to this, in my opinion, is all of these guys are fighting to be the next group of guys in a clear tier ahead of the rest. The next group of players can be considered “throw-ins” in trades, if you will, while the players listed above would be considered “headliners”. The term “throw-in” is somewhat derogatory though, there are some interesting pieces here. Anywho…

 

[calsnowskier]

I have been playing with my list, wanting to get it. Out before you posted yours. I knew I wasn’t going to be able to compete. But I wasn’t able to get it done. I will finish it soon, but it will basically just be a list. I can’t coompete with that thoroughness...

 

[calsnowskier]

One surprising omission...

Alexander Canario. What do you think of him?

And I guess Ziegler’s late-season swan dive scared you off of him?

 

[SFGRTB]

One surprising omission...

Alexander Canario. What do you think of him?

And I guess Ziegler’s late-season swan dive scared you off of him?

I love Canario's outlook, it's just so, so early. I have him slated 17th, behind a slew of relievers. Definitely a kid to keep an eye on and he should be state-side this year. Could be top-5 depending how things shake out. Had rave reviews this fall.

Ziegler didn't get as good of reviews, but yeah his second half was so bad that it could skew information. He's not unique anymore with guys like Bryce Johnson and Aaron Bond potentially already passing him, but I still like him.

I have some stuff on these guys past 11th, but I figured I'd wait to dump more information later.

 

[SFGRTB]

I have been playing with my list, wanting to get it. Out before you posted yours. I knew I wasn’t going to be able to compete. But I wasn’t able to get it done. I will finish it soon, but it will basically just be a list. I can’t coompete with that thoroughness...

When you spend so much time in the minors with these options.....

jokes aside this is all to spark a discussion and get different opinions. Certain guys may not be on the radar and it's cool to get to know them. I like to hear how people value prospects.

 

[calsnowskier]

When you spend so much time in the minors with these options.....

jokes aside this is all to spark a discussion and get different opinions. Certain guys may not be on the radar and it's cool to get to know them. I like to hear how people value prospects.

The whole “radar” concept is all any of this is when you get right down to it. Then you can place kids into groups (most consider the top 3 of this org as the unquestioned top 3, for example). Actual rankings within these groups is almost immaterial. Most rank Ramos as #1 while I have him at #3, but I totally get why others put him at 1.

 

[SFGRTB]

The whole “radar” concept is all any of this is when you get right down to it. Then you can place kids into groups (most consider the top 3 of this org as the unquestioned top 3, for example). Actual rankings within these groups is almost immaterial. Most rank Ramos as #1 while I have him at #3, but I totally get why others put him at 1.

A few years ago I did just go simply position-by-position, the top 3 at each.

Yeah I mean frankly the ranking system is almost completely arbitrary, even for professionals, because the variables are so random. The criteria can't be too broad because everyone can look good in a certain lens, but it can't be too specific because it's not an exact science. In the end it becomes a name recognition exercise and gut feelings.

There are definitely guys that have a certain "look" of a major league player. Good swing or good pitching motion, athletic, no wasted motion etc. Heliot Ramos has that. But as we all know, it's not a science. Look to Lincecum and Pence.

I have some interesting (to me at least) information on some radar guys for the Giants. One prospect in particular has been doing something that only a current dodger stud pitcher has been doing. (shameless cliffhanger)

 

[SFGRTB]

As mentioned above the rest of these guys I'm listing aren't necessarily ranked by best player or whatever. I tired to "rank" them but it proved futile. I kept changing guys around and was stuck in an infinite cycle. That being said, it's "somewhat" leaning towards potential ML impact based. I would just alphabetize the rest of these guys if I thought equally of them, so I guess keep that in mind... but this is mostly just a way to get to know some of the deeper guys.

Without further ado:

12. Reyes Moronta (RHP)

13. Julian Fernandez (RHP)

14. Melvin Adon (RHP)

15. Tyler Cyr (RHP)

16. D.J. Snelten (LHP)

Five relief guys (well Adon is still a starter but not for long) who are all pretty close to the majors (well, except Adon but I think he makes a big jump, plus I like Adon a lot) and could make an impact in the next year or two. Moronta currently has the nastiest 1-2 punch with his SL and FB, but Fernandez and Adon have significantly better fastballs and deception (which says a lot because Moronta has a good bit of both), and higher potential. Adon is basically the new Gregorio. Cyr relies more on a sinker in the low 90s but can get it up to 95 with a 4-seam. Also throws a slider, cutter and split, and can go multiple innings. Snelten is similar to Cyr but from the left side and his delivery is pretty funky. Groundball machine.

I typically don't put relievers near the top of my rankings because they're inherently limited. That being said this is a nice group with diverse pitch types and some very high ceilings. Fernandez and Adon, in particular, could be studs.

 

[SFGRTB]

This next group might be my favorite:

17. Alexander Canario (OF)

18. Gregory Santos (RHP)

19. Camilo Doval (RHP)

20. Seth Corry (LHP)

Four extremely talented, but volatile risks. Each could easily skyrocket these rankings very quickly. Canario is already garnering some love, he’s a five-tool talent in CF/RF. Had the best DSL season for a Giant since Pablo Sandoval in 2003. Santos has drawn rave reviews from scouts as well. Tops out at 97 as an 18 year old, with command. Scouts overwhelmingly believe he’ll be a reliever but definitely see a major league pitcher. Both guys will be state-side this year, likely in the AZL. Doval might be my favorite sleeper this year though. Pure reliever but has a lightning rod in his arm that he doesn’t seem to realize yet. He was throwing 95 mph fastballs, with lively cut, at 2700 rmp. Only one pitcher in the major leagues threw a pitch with that criteria in 2017…. Kenly Jansen. Doval has a long road ahead, and he’s not throwing that consistently just yet. Huge, huge relief upside if he does. Could be in Augusta next year. Finally there’s Corry. Scouts were kind of down on him but willing to write it off. He might be the furthest behind anyone on this list, including the Dominican players. Has a lot of mechanical issues.

 

[tzill]

So I'm going to post my top-11 guys in a list because I think there's a clear spot where the Giants' prospect shift, in my personal criteria. The top-11 (formerly 13 before the trades) have a combination of potential, risk and intangibles (such as mechanics, for instance) that favors their ranks over guys below them. From there I'm going to post more guys that I like. How many? We'll see. I'm up to 34 right now

How do I come up with this? A combination of live looks, extensive video looks, online sources' analysis and personal sources analysis.

The Giants' system is among one of the worst in baseball. Hearing that is disappointing, but at the same time there is so much talent in baseball that every team has plenty of interesting players in their system. The Giants, contrary to popular belief, have such talent as well. They lack a ton of high-end talent and what you could call "comfortable" bets (betting on any prospect isn't really comfortable, but there are some that make you feel better than others), but that doesn't mean there aren't interesting players down there.

Now more than ever minor league players are getting more exposure for the better. Teams are investing in the minors with the same technology they use for the major league teams. The data that tracks launch angles, spin rate, route efficiency etc. is being used throughout the minor leagues now, and while this information isn't readily available to the public, data does leak and analysis is becoming more accurate than ever. Prospects are learning adjustments earlier than they ever have, tweaking mechanics thanks to widely available video.

This all applies to the Giants too. They've always invested heavily in the minor leagues and showed a willingness to learn and adjust themselves, as shown with the recent minor league upheaval. This upcoming season will be more exciting than ever with new minor league coaches and philosophies spreading over a draft class with good early returns, an upcoming draft where the Giants pick second every round and a very interesting group of Dominican League players expected to jump state-side. The Giants are also tied to one of the best international players in the next signing cycle.

The Giants' minor league system is already interesting if your willing to dig in a little bit, but it's about to get a lot more intrigue. Normally filled with older, college based prospects, the Giants soon look to pepper their ranks with a number of teenage and young 20-year olds. This list is going to look drastically difference come July with a number of the prospects towards the top looking to graduate, and a number of breakout candidates looking to blow up.

At the top, the Giants are composed mostly of starting pitchers and outfielders who are ready or near-ready to help the big club. The Giants also have a collection of relievers who can step in and potentially help. In a good way, the Giants have a number of prospects to assist the current big league club with injuries and general depth, though perhaps not many of these guys will be part of the Giants' next true competitive window. As mentioned above many of the Giants' prospects are older, 24-25 years old. Not to discount those players, they are certainly potentially good players that I hold in high regard, but likely no game changers. The next noteworthy wave is still a few years away, hopefully led by the kid who leads this list.

1. Heliot Ramos
2. Tyler Beede
3. Chris Shaw
4. Steven Duggar
5. Austin Slater
6. Andrew Suarez
7. Garrett Williams
8. Sandro Fabian
9. Shaun Anderson
10. Aramis Garcia
11. Jacob Gonzalez

Interesting...no Cyr?

 

[tzill]

As mentioned above the rest of these guys I'm listing aren't necessarily ranked by best player or whatever. I tired to "rank" them but it proved futile. I kept changing guys around and was stuck in an infinite cycle. That being said, it's "somewhat" leaning towards potential ML impact based. I would just alphabetize the rest of these guys if I thought equally of them, so I guess keep that in mind... but this is mostly just a way to get to know some of the deeper guys.

Without further ado:

12. Reyes Moronta (RHP)

13. Julian Fernandez (RHP)

14. Melvin Adon (RHP)

15. Tyler Cyr (RHP)

16. D.J. Snelten (LHP)

Five relief guys (well Adon is still a starter but not for long) who are all pretty close to the majors (well, except Adon but I think he makes a big jump, plus I like Adon a lot) and could make an impact in the next year or two. Moronta currently has the nastiest 1-2 punch with his SL and FB, but Fernandez and Adon have significantly better fastballs and deception (which says a lot because Moronta has a good bit of both), and higher potential. Adon is basically the new Gregorio. Cyr relies more on a sinker in the low 90s but can get it up to 95 with a 4-seam. Also throws a slider, cutter and split, and can go multiple innings. Snelten is similar to Cyr but from the left side and his delivery is pretty funky. Groundball machine.

I typically don't put relievers near the top of my rankings because they're inherently limited. That being said this is a nice group with diverse pitch types and some very high ceilings. Fernandez and Adon, in particular, could be studs.

There's Cyr!!

 

[SFGRTB]

Interesting...no Cyr?

I typically don't have relievers in my top.... tier I guess is the term.

To me they are inherently limited. Not to disregard the importance of good bullpen pieces (we know full well how that is, seeing it from both sides), but they are already volatile by nature. Starters can fall back on relieving. Relievers typically don't get stretched out and become aces all of a sudden.

I do really like Cyr, and he's a Bay Area kid so he gets bonus points. He'll be in Sacramento for anyone who wants to check him out.

 

[calsnowskier]

How do you pronounce his name?

Seer or Sire or Sir?

 

[SFGRTB]

How do you pronounce his name?

Seer or Sire or Sir?

Seer

 

[MarcoPolo]

When I am relieving myself, I don't think about the bullpen either ...