2018 Rule 5 Draft thread

[SFGRTB]

The bold portion is a scenario based on my interpretation of the rule.

Unfortunately, I don't have a subscription with BA any longer. I see that the article notes that he was assigned to a roster. Typically, the Giants don't assign their international signees to rosters that season. If a player isn't assigned to a roster, and the new signing period has started, does that first year really count?

What's so shrewd about the Rays move then if they didn't have to assign him to a roster in the first place? I think the point is moot.

 

[LHG]

What's so shrewd about the Rays move then if they didn't have to assign him to a roster in the first place? I think the point is moot.

Considering that none of the Giants' international signees in the 2018-2019 signing period showed up on any rosters, there are one of three scenarios I can think of:
1. The minor league websites simply don't show inactive players on their websites or are inconsistent (I say that because there were inactive players listed on different teams throughout the season but usually they were inactive for just a few days).
2. The rule for placing them on rosters has changed between 2014 and 2018. Then, teams had to place them on rosters, regardless of whether they would play. Now, they are not required to be on a minor league roster.
3. The BA writer doesn't understand roster requirements and made an assumption that Hernandez was on a roster. I would assume that the writer is more knowledgeable than I am concerning these matters, but she or he may also be new to this part of the minor leagues.

Fabian's minor league player profile shows his first team assignment made on May 29, 2015 to the DSL Giants. Hernandez' player profile shows his first assignment in 2015 as well. So maybe MiLB doesn't show their first assignments after they sign.

 

[LHG]

Today, infielders:

Jonah Arenado, 3rd - The brother of the Giant killer doesn't look like he will be killing anything except his chances of a major league career. After repeating high A ball in 2017, and putting up semi-promising numbers (.268/.308/.439) as a 22 year old, Arenado put up the worst season of his career in 2018 with Richmond. In 102 games, he hit a .200/.244/.303. Man, Richmond really is a cemetery for hitters. His defense at 3rd isn't that great either and so he played 31 games at 1st base.
Kelvin Beltre, 2nd - Beltre was the starting 2nd baseman for Augusta in 2017 but served in a utility role with San Jose in 2018, playing 22 games at shortstop, 20 games at 3rd base and 14 games at 2nd base. Offensively, he started strong in the US in 2015 (.723 OPS with AZL) and 2016 (.758 OPS with AZl/Augusta) before dropping to a .690 OPS in 2017 and .656 OPS in 2018. Still young (he'll be 22 years old all of next season), Beltre will still easily pass through the Rule 5 draft.
Wander A Franco, 1st - So a player wandered into the org and brought his little brother . . . This Wander would be the little brother. A free agent pickup after his released from the Houston organization, the Giants played Franco at Salem-Keizer. Nothing in his time with the Astros' farm suggested he could hit. Maybe they just moved him too fast. At Salem, he posted a .314/.351/.519 clash on the season, finishing on a torrid couple of weeks, playing mainly 1st with some 3rd sprinkled in It will be interesting to see how the Giants play him next year but its safe to say he probably won't be protected from the Rule 5.
Wander J Franco, 3rd - Here is another player that should be a minor league free agent but is not listed as one. Big brother Wander J got picked up off waivers from the Royals and somehow earned Cal League All-Star honors despite hitting .277/.296/.386 as the starting 3rd baseman (with a dozen games split between 1st and short). I assume he'll be back at San Jose in 2019.
Manuel Geraldo, ss - After two years of bouncing from Augusta to Salem-Keizer, Geraldo finally put together a season where he hit well enough to play an entire season with Augusta. In fact, he started out well enough that a promotion looked to be in the works before he slumped in the 2nd half, to finish with a .294/.337/.385 slash. Those are better numbers than a few higher profile prospects put together on that team. Just 22 years of age, he'll probably play next year in San Jose (where he'll need to work on cutting down his strikeouts, he had 121 in Augusta in 2018).
CJ Hinojosa, ss - Two years ago, Hinojosa looked like a rising prospect. Now, after 2 and a half seasons of mediocre hitting in Richmond, a drug suspension and more awful hitting in the AFL, its doubtful he will be picked up on to the 40 man roster The good news is that his .265/.330/358 in Richmond this year was been the best of his three tries there. At least he's versatile. He played 37 games at shortstop, 25 games at 2nd base and 10 games at 3rd base in 2018.
Robinson Medrano, 1st - Medrano had a nice stint in 27 games with Salem last year but was sent back to get more playing time there in 2018. His return did not look as good. In 54 games, he slashed .230/.338/.418, slumping while Franco streaked. Considering both play mainly 1st base, and Medrano is older (24 next year), I don't know where he will be in 2019.
John Riley, 1st - The bat has not generally been a problem for the converted catcher. In 2015 with Salem, he hit .246/.364/.377 . . . and was sent back there in 2016, when he hit .274/.369/.404. Now this is where it gets interesting. A catcher in his debut and sophomore seasons (2013 & 2014), he played 1st base solely in 2015. So maybe they thought that, when they moved him back to catcher in 2016 that he needed to get used to that spot in short A ball. So where does he go in 2017? Well, mainly not on any roster, but outside of 1 game with San Jose, he plays all of his time, again, with Salem, which was 8 games (only 3 at catcher, while also playing 1 in left field and 3 at 1st base). Finally, he starts 2018 in full season ball, as Augusta's occasional DH, 1st baseman and catcher (7, 7, and 3 games respectively). He tears it up in his time there, hitting .316/.385/.632. In between stints in Augusta, he logs in 14 games with San Jose (12 at 1st, 1 at catcher and 1 pinch hitting) and looked much worse - .205/.255/.341. Then, he gets moved up to Richmond, again slitting time between catcher and 1st (with some left and right field action sprinkled in), hitting .250/.338.383 in 26 games. Folks, that's some of the best offensive production Richmond got from any of their players, and was solely a reserve at all three stops. Who knows where he'll go to start 2019 at 25 years of age, but he won't be on the 40 man roster.

 

[LHG]

In light of the conversation about Fabian and the fact that the Giants re-signed Brock Stassi before he hit free agency (along with Ronnie Freeman), I'll add those two to this thread:

Brock Stassi, 1st - A late season add to Sacramento's roster, Stassi spent the first third of 2018 with the Twins' AAA team, hitting .211/.316/.316 before getting released. He landed in independent ball, hitting .361/.458/.592 in 40 games before being picked up by the Giants. He proceeded to hit .391/.536/.547 in 21 late season games. He has some major league experience if a lower level team desperate for a bat off the bench wants to find one in the Rule 5 draft.
Sandro Fabian, rf - When Fabian made his stateside debut in 2016, he hit so well that the Giants decided to skip him all the way up to Augusta in 2017. He struggled mightily in the 1st half of 2017 but hit well enough the 2nd half for the Giants to promote him to San Jose for 2018. This year, he only struggled, hitting .200/.260/.325 on the season. He is young (turning 21 next year), so he has plenty of time to turn his career around. He is safe, however, from being picked up in the Rule 5 and probably does not need to be protected.

 

[LHG]

Today's list, starting pitchers, is quite lengthy (13 total). Tomorrow, I'll post relievers, which should be even longer.

Melvin Adon, sp – Since he came stateside in 2016, Adon has not been very impressive as a starter. His lowest ERA was posted in 2017 with Augusta (4.35) and his lowest WHIP was in 2017 as well (1.460). While his home runs per 9 have been good (0.7 the highest) and walk rate has been decent to poor (between 3.2 and 4.5), his K rate has not looked that great (highest was 8.2 in 2018). Considering he will turn 25 years old next June, it looks to be time to have him transition to a relief pitcher. The numbers he’s posted in the AFL seem to back that up. Considering his electric stuff, the Giants may do just that and protect him on the 40 man roster this year.

Mike Connolly, sp-rp – Connolly has been used more as a started than relief pitcher the past three years, so I’m sticking him here. A 27th round pick in 2013, Connolly spent the 1st 2 seasons of his career solely in relief, before converting to a started with Salem-Keizer in 2014. Posting okay numbers in 2014 and 2015, he’s moved one step up each year, until 2018. He looked rather mediocre in San Jose last year but still got bumped up to Richmond in 2018 and bounced between the Flying Squirrels and RiverCats throughout the season. All told, his numbers weren’t good at all. In 29 games (14 starts) he posted a 5.79 ERA, 1.551 WHIP and a mere 6.3 K rate.

Israel Cruz, sp – One of the pitchers the Giants got from the Rangers in the Matt Moore deal, Cruz repeated the AZL this year with the Giants. In 13 games (12 starts), he showed flashes of good. He posted a new 10.1 K rate and a decent 3.97 ERA but his WHIP (1.441) and walk rate (4.0) is a bit troubling. Turning 22 years old next June, he is a bit old to still be figuring out the AZL. I suspect he’ll be either in Salem or Augusta to start 2019. He most likely won’t be on a 40 man roster though.

Juan de Paula, sp – If SFGRTB is correct on the years counting toward Rule 5 eligibility, de Paula has to be considered for protection. Already on his third organization, de Paula came over from the Yankees in the McCutchen trade. He made one start for the Giants’ org before the minor league season ended and it was a good one. He threw 5 innings for Augusta, giving up only 2 hits, 1 run (on a home run), 1 walk and struck out 9 batters! For whatever reason, the Yankees had him repeat short A ball in 2018 where he’s thrown well both years. His ERA this year was much lower (1.71 vs 2.90 last year) but his WHIP did go up (1.289 from 1.081). More importantly, though, his K rate went from 7.7 to 8.7. His 2016 K rate (with the Mariners’ AZL affiliate) seems to be an outlier so far (11.6) but if the start in Augusta was any indicator, he may yet get back to that. He’ll be all of 21 all next year. He can probably stay under the Rule 5 radar, but he could possibly get picked up.

Jason Forjet, sp – I only list him because (A) he was drafted in 2012 by the Giants, (B) he is not listed as a minor league free agent (probably because he hasn’t pitched the past couple of years) and (C) he is still controlled by the Giants. There is no official notification by MiLB that he is retired so he is technically active and the Giants haven’t released him so he is still part of the organization.

Tyler Herb, sp – As much of a revelation that Herb was in 2017 after a minor swap with the Mariners, that the Giants added him to the 40 man roster, his 2018 season was such a disaster that he got dfa’d last month off the 40 man roster. The guy got killed in his first taste of starting in AAA. A 5.35 ERA, 1.599 WHIP and 7.5 K rate will do nothing to earn a big league shot. Since it is his first dfa, he’ll be back in 2019 (barring a release) as no team will be drafting him.

Jordan Johnson, sp – Johnson started the season repeating at Richmond and, while not posting great numbers, he looked so much better than most guys at either AA or AAA that he got a mid season promotion to Sacramento. He looked exposed a bit with the River Cats, seeing an increase in ERA (3.63 to 4.66), WHIP (1.399 to 1.534) and Ks to walks (2.48 to 1.12) while seeing his K rate go down (8.7 to 5.7). Overall, his numbers are AAA, considering the league, weren’t bad but probably not enough to warrant protection. We’ll see. He could be a bubble candidate.

Mac Marshall, sp – A 4th round pick of the 2015 draft, Marshall has yet to get his promise to turn into results. He started the 2018 season off decently but it nose dived toward the end of the season, posting rather pitiful numbers in ERA (5.43), WHIP (1.544) and walk rate (6.4). However, his K rate (10.2) shows some promise. Maybe his future is a reliever.

Jose Marte, sp – An international signing in 2015 at the age of 19 years old, Marte could be eligible for the Rule 5 after playing just 3 seasons. He got his first chance at full season ball this year with Augusta and the results weren’t that good. In 25 starts, he posted a 4.70 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 8.5 K rate. He’ll be 23 halfway through 2019 so he’ll probably be safe from the draft.

Domenic Mazza, sp – A mid late round (22nd) pick of the 2015 draft, Mazza was unable to capitalize on a successful 2017 with Augusta in 2018 with San Jose. Injured part of the year, Mazza made 11 starts (with 4 relief appearances, 2 rehab ones in AZL) and posted a 4.52 ERA and 1.611 WHIP. His home runs per 9 were low (0.8) but his K rate was nothing special (7.4). He’ll turn 25 late July of 2019.

Cory Taylor, sp – Off to a decent start with Richmond in 2018 (at least, compared to the rest of the rotation), Taylor’s 2018 season got cut short by injury. He was repeating in Richmond after a meh 2017 season, after which he was rushed up the farm in 2016. His 2018 numbers weren’t great (3.95 ERA, 1.463 WHIP, 1.3 HR9) but it was his walk rate (4.4), K rate (5.1) and K to walk ratio (1.15) that really needs work.

Raffi Vizcaino, sp – A repeat to this list (as a few others are), Vizcaino is similar to Adon in that, since his stateside debut, he just hasn’t looked that good as a starter. In 16 starts (and 1 relief appearance) for San Jose, he posted a 4.65 ERA, 1.538 WHIP but a good 9.6 K rate. He’ll turn 23 years old next month, so there may be some time for him to yet work out as a starter. Considering how thin the upper levels are on starting pitching, he may get that chance again in 2019 with Richmond.

Logan Webb, sp – Based upon results, at least, Webb is probably the closest thing to a sure fire 40 man roster spot on this list. A lefthander who just turned 22 years old today(!), Webb got to start for the first time since 2016. His numbers, mainly in San Jose but with 6 starts in Richmond, look impressive. He posted a 2.41 ERA (1.82 in SJ), 1.252 WHIP, 8.6 K rate and 0.5 HR9 rate. His numbers weren’t as good in Richmond as they were in San Jose but he is young, a lefty and already getting experience in Richmond. He needs protection.

 

[SFGRTB]

Today's list, starting pitchers, is quite lengthy (13 total). Tomorrow, I'll post relievers, which should be even longer.

Melvin Adon, sp – Since he came stateside in 2016, Adon has not been very impressive as a starter. His lowest ERA was posted in 2017 with Augusta (4.35) and his lowest WHIP was in 2017 as well (1.460). While his home runs per 9 have been good (0.7 the highest) and walk rate has been decent to poor (between 3.2 and 4.5), his K rate has not looked that great (highest was 8.2 in 2018). Considering he will turn 25 years old next June, it looks to be time to have him transition to a relief pitcher. The numbers he’s posted in the AFL seem to back that up. Considering his electric stuff, the Giants may do just that and protect him on the 40 man roster this year.

Mike Connolly, sp-rp – Connolly has been used more as a started than relief pitcher the past three years, so I’m sticking him here. A 27th round pick in 2013, Connolly spent the 1st 2 seasons of his career solely in relief, before converting to a started with Salem-Keizer in 2014. Posting okay numbers in 2014 and 2015, he’s moved one step up each year, until 2018. He looked rather mediocre in San Jose last year but still got bumped up to Richmond in 2018 and bounced between the Flying Squirrels and RiverCats throughout the season. All told, his numbers weren’t good at all. In 29 games (14 starts) he posted a 5.79 ERA, 1.551 WHIP and a mere 6.3 K rate.

Israel Cruz, sp – One of the pitchers the Giants got from the Rangers in the Matt Moore deal, Cruz repeated the AZL this year with the Giants. In 13 games (12 starts), he showed flashes of good. He posted a new 10.1 K rate and a decent 3.97 ERA but his WHIP (1.441) and walk rate (4.0) is a bit troubling. Turning 22 years old next June, he is a bit old to still be figuring out the AZL. I suspect he’ll be either in Salem or Augusta to start 2019. He most likely won’t be on a 40 man roster though.

Juan de Paula, sp – If SFGRTB is correct on the years counting toward Rule 5 eligibility, de Paula has to be considered for protection. Already on his third organization, de Paula came over from the Yankees in the McCutchen trade. He made one start for the Giants’ org before the minor league season ended and it was a good one. He threw 5 innings for Augusta, giving up only 2 hits, 1 run (on a home run), 1 walk and struck out 9 batters! For whatever reason, the Yankees had him repeat short A ball in 2018 where he’s thrown well both years. His ERA this year was much lower (1.71 vs 2.90 last year) but his WHIP did go up (1.289 from 1.081). More importantly, though, his K rate went from 7.7 to 8.7. His 2016 K rate (with the Mariners’ AZL affiliate) seems to be an outlier so far (11.6) but if the start in Augusta was any indicator, he may yet get back to that. He’ll be all of 21 all next year. He can probably stay under the Rule 5 radar, but he could possibly get picked up.

Jason Forjet, sp – I only list him because (A) he was drafted in 2012 by the Giants, (B) he is not listed as a minor league free agent (probably because he hasn’t pitched the past couple of years) and (C) he is still controlled by the Giants. There is no official notification by MiLB that he is retired so he is technically active and the Giants haven’t released him so he is still part of the organization.

Tyler Herb, sp – As much of a revelation that Herb was in 2017 after a minor swap with the Mariners, that the Giants added him to the 40 man roster, his 2018 season was such a disaster that he got dfa’d last month off the 40 man roster. The guy got killed in his first taste of starting in AAA. A 5.35 ERA, 1.599 WHIP and 7.5 K rate will do nothing to earn a big league shot. Since it is his first dfa, he’ll be back in 2019 (barring a release) as no team will be drafting him.

Jordan Johnson, sp – Johnson started the season repeating at Richmond and, while not posting great numbers, he looked so much better than most guys at either AA or AAA that he got a mid season promotion to Sacramento. He looked exposed a bit with the River Cats, seeing an increase in ERA (3.63 to 4.66), WHIP (1.399 to 1.534) and Ks to walks (2.48 to 1.12) while seeing his K rate go down (8.7 to 5.7). Overall, his numbers are AAA, considering the league, weren’t bad but probably not enough to warrant protection. We’ll see. He could be a bubble candidate.

Mac Marshall, sp – A 4th round pick of the 2015 draft, Marshall has yet to get his promise to turn into results. He started the 2018 season off decently but it nose dived toward the end of the season, posting rather pitiful numbers in ERA (5.43), WHIP (1.544) and walk rate (6.4). However, his K rate (10.2) shows some promise. Maybe his future is a reliever.

Jose Marte, sp – An international signing in 2015 at the age of 19 years old, Marte could be eligible for the Rule 5 after playing just 3 seasons. He got his first chance at full season ball this year with Augusta and the results weren’t that good. In 25 starts, he posted a 4.70 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 8.5 K rate. He’ll be 23 halfway through 2019 so he’ll probably be safe from the draft.

Domenic Mazza, sp – A mid late round (22nd) pick of the 2015 draft, Mazza was unable to capitalize on a successful 2017 with Augusta in 2018 with San Jose. Injured part of the year, Mazza made 11 starts (with 4 relief appearances, 2 rehab ones in AZL) and posted a 4.52 ERA and 1.611 WHIP. His home runs per 9 were low (0.8) but his K rate was nothing special (7.4). He’ll turn 25 late July of 2019.

Cory Taylor, sp – Off to a decent start with Richmond in 2018 (at least, compared to the rest of the rotation), Taylor’s 2018 season got cut short by injury. He was repeating in Richmond after a meh 2017 season, after which he was rushed up the farm in 2016. His 2018 numbers weren’t great (3.95 ERA, 1.463 WHIP, 1.3 HR9) but it was his walk rate (4.4), K rate (5.1) and K to walk ratio (1.15) that really needs work.

Raffi Vizcaino, sp – A repeat to this list (as a few others are), Vizcaino is similar to Adon in that, since his stateside debut, he just hasn’t looked that good as a starter. In 16 starts (and 1 relief appearance) for San Jose, he posted a 4.65 ERA, 1.538 WHIP but a good 9.6 K rate. He’ll turn 23 years old next month, so there may be some time for him to yet work out as a starter. Considering how thin the upper levels are on starting pitching, he may get that chance again in 2019 with Richmond.

Logan Webb, sp – Based upon results, at least, Webb is probably the closest thing to a sure fire 40 man roster spot on this list. A lefthander who just turned 22 years old today(!), Webb got to start for the first time since 2016. His numbers, mainly in San Jose but with 6 starts in Richmond, look impressive. He posted a 2.41 ERA (1.82 in SJ), 1.252 WHIP, 8.6 K rate and 0.5 HR9 rate. His numbers weren’t as good in Richmond as they were in San Jose but he is young, a lefty and already getting experience in Richmond. He needs protection.

Adon and Webb are most likely locks. De Paula feels like he could be so the Giants don't risk wasting part of their return for Cutch. The clock starts ticking fast, though.

Jose Marte is the other interesting arm on this list. He had a really bad second half, but his stuff is intriguing. At least his fastball is. Probably not enough to get nabbed unless there's a really bold team out there.

 

[SFGRTB]

Today, infielders:

Jonah Arenado, 3rd - The brother of the Giant killer doesn't look like he will be killing anything except his chances of a major league career. After repeating high A ball in 2017, and putting up semi-promising numbers (.268/.308/.439) as a 22 year old, Arenado put up the worst season of his career in 2018 with Richmond. In 102 games, he hit a .200/.244/.303. Man, Richmond really is a cemetery for hitters. His defense at 3rd isn't that great either and so he played 31 games at 1st base.
Kelvin Beltre, 2nd - Beltre was the starting 2nd baseman for Augusta in 2017 but served in a utility role with San Jose in 2018, playing 22 games at shortstop, 20 games at 3rd base and 14 games at 2nd base. Offensively, he started strong in the US in 2015 (.723 OPS with AZL) and 2016 (.758 OPS with AZl/Augusta) before dropping to a .690 OPS in 2017 and .656 OPS in 2018. Still young (he'll be 22 years old all of next season), Beltre will still easily pass through the Rule 5 draft.
Wander A Franco, 1st - So a player wandered into the org and brought his little brother . . . This Wander would be the little brother. A free agent pickup after his released from the Houston organization, the Giants played Franco at Salem-Keizer. Nothing in his time with the Astros' farm suggested he could hit. Maybe they just moved him too fast. At Salem, he posted a .314/.351/.519 clash on the season, finishing on a torrid couple of weeks, playing mainly 1st with some 3rd sprinkled in It will be interesting to see how the Giants play him next year but its safe to say he probably won't be protected from the Rule 5.
Wander J Franco, 3rd - Here is another player that should be a minor league free agent but is not listed as one. Big brother Wander J got picked up off waivers from the Royals and somehow earned Cal League All-Star honors despite hitting .277/.296/.386 as the starting 3rd baseman (with a dozen games split between 1st and short). I assume he'll be back at San Jose in 2019.
Manuel Geraldo, ss - After two years of bouncing from Augusta to Salem-Keizer, Geraldo finally put together a season where he hit well enough to play an entire season with Augusta. In fact, he started out well enough that a promotion looked to be in the works before he slumped in the 2nd half, to finish with a .294/.337/.385 slash. Those are better numbers than a few higher profile prospects put together on that team. Just 22 years of age, he'll probably play next year in San Jose (where he'll need to work on cutting down his strikeouts, he had 121 in Augusta in 2018).
CJ Hinojosa, ss - Two years ago, Hinojosa looked like a rising prospect. Now, after 2 and a half seasons of mediocre hitting in Richmond, a drug suspension and more awful hitting in the AFL, its doubtful he will be picked up on to the 40 man roster The good news is that his .265/.330/358 in Richmond this year was been the best of his three tries there. At least he's versatile. He played 37 games at shortstop, 25 games at 2nd base and 10 games at 3rd base in 2018.
Robinson Medrano, 1st - Medrano had a nice stint in 27 games with Salem last year but was sent back to get more playing time there in 2018. His return did not look as good. In 54 games, he slashed .230/.338/.418, slumping while Franco streaked. Considering both play mainly 1st base, and Medrano is older (24 next year), I don't know where he will be in 2019.
John Riley, 1st - The bat has not generally been a problem for the converted catcher. In 2015 with Salem, he hit .246/.364/.377 . . . and was sent back there in 2016, when he hit .274/.369/.404. Now this is where it gets interesting. A catcher in his debut and sophomore seasons (2013 & 2014), he played 1st base solely in 2015. So maybe they thought that, when they moved him back to catcher in 2016 that he needed to get used to that spot in short A ball. So where does he go in 2017? Well, mainly not on any roster, but outside of 1 game with San Jose, he plays all of his time, again, with Salem, which was 8 games (only 3 at catcher, while also playing 1 in left field and 3 at 1st base). Finally, he starts 2018 in full season ball, as Augusta's occasional DH, 1st baseman and catcher (7, 7, and 3 games respectively). He tears it up in his time there, hitting .316/.385/.632. In between stints in Augusta, he logs in 14 games with San Jose (12 at 1st, 1 at catcher and 1 pinch hitting) and looked much worse - .205/.255/.341. Then, he gets moved up to Richmond, again slitting time between catcher and 1st (with some left and right field action sprinkled in), hitting .250/.338.383 in 26 games. Folks, that's some of the best offensive production Richmond got from any of their players, and was solely a reserve at all three stops. Who knows where he'll go to start 2019 at 25 years of age, but he won't be on the 40 man roster.

Hinojosa also dealt with a lot of injuries the past 2+ years, including torn Achilles. I think before the Giants acquired Avelino, there was a good chance that Hinojosa would have been added as a Kelby replacement. Now it's a long shot.

 

[Stokes1931]

Hinojosa also dealt with a lot of injuries the past 2+ years, including torn Achilles. I think before the Giants acquired Avelino, there was a good chance that Hinojosa would have been added as a Kelby replacement. Now it's a long shot.

Hinojosa's showing in the AFL did not help his cause.

Of course, when KT went to the AFL he hit less than .100, but since they were working with him on some things, it really helped his chances and he soon became a utility guy for the Giants. KT at least has speed. Not sure that Hinojosa's strengths are anything special.

 

[SFGRTB]

Hinojosa's showing in the AFL did not help his cause.

Of course, when KT went to the AFL he hit less than .100, but since they were working with him on some things, it really helped his chances and he soon became a utility guy for the Giants. KT at least has speed. Not sure that Hinojosa's strengths are anything special.

He's got a great arm. Unfortunately I think his tools/athleticism has just fallen off after the Achilles, which isn't surprising.

 

[LHG]

Get ready. Here is the final installment, and not too soon as decisions will be made tomorrow. This list is a doozy (nearly twice as many as starters) - relief pitchers (disclaimer: You can probably guess a rant is coming in this one).
Deiyerbert Bolivar, lhp - The injury bug has bit Bolivar hard, limiting his professional experience to just the DSL and AZL leagues. This year, the soon to be 23 year old, got in just 6 games with AZL Orange, with mixed results (4 hits and 4 walks, but only 2 runs and 6 Ks in 6 innings, all relief).
Greg Brody, rhp - Brody has been used sparingly in the Giants org since they drafted him in the 11th round of the 2014 draft. He has thrown in only 29 games total in his career, missing all of 2015 and 2018. His career high for games is 14 for the AZL team in 2014. His career numbers are actually good (2.90 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 12.5 K/9) but most of that has been in rookie ball. His 13 games above rookie ball has been awful.
Sandro Cabrera, lhp - One of the few lefties on this list, Cabrera has moved slowly up the chain, considering his age (24 next June). His numbers have supported his slow move. With San Jose in 2018, he appeared in 34 games (9 starts) and posted a 4.88 ERA, 1.806 WHIP and 4.7 BB/9 (with only a 7.5 K/9, lowest of his career).
Sam Coonrod, rhp - Once a highly touted starting pitching prospect, Coonrod now looks like he may not even bee a good relief prospect. The 26 year old missed most of 2018 with an injury. He pitched 4 games with AZL Black and another 6 with San Jose (2 starts, both with AZL). He combined to throw 11.7 innings, giving up 11 hits, 7 earned runs, 3 walks but 23 strikeouts! Maybe he gets his pitches under control and turns out to be a good relief prospect in 2019.
Tyler Cyr, rhp - After a strong 2017 in Richmond, Cyr's disappointment for 2018 was having to repeat 2018 with Richmond. Then, the bigger disappointment came after 6 poor relief starts, when he went down with season ending TJ surgery. Now, he'll have to start 2019 in rehab instead of competing for a big league job.
Ian Gardeck, rhp - Gardeck, a former 40 man roster player, should be a minor league free agent, having been in the farm for 7 years. While I cannot find anything to show why, I would guess it has to do with his missing 2 full years (2016 & 2017, but they would have still been under contract). When he finally got to pitch late in 2018, he started off slow in 4 rehab appearances with AZL Orange (7.36 ERA, 1.909 WHIP, 7.4 BB/9) but settled down a bit in 10 games between San Jose and Richmond (WHIP down to 1.400 and ERA down to 0.90, BB/9 down to 3.6 but K/9 also down to 7.2). The almost 28 year old (in 2 days) can probably safely pass through the Rule 5 draft.
David Graybill, rhp - Having spent the entire 2018 season on the AZL Black's restricted list, Graybill hasn't thrown in a professional game since 2015. In his sole season he threw in all of 5 games, giving up 6 runs on 4 walks and 6 hits, with only 2 strikeouts in 3 innings.
Ryan Halstead, rhp - Having posted 2 good season in a row, Halstead needs to be considered for the 40 man roster. After being lights out in San Jose last year (1.11 ERA, 1.068 WHIP and 10 K/9), he struggled in a mid season promotion to Richmond in 2017. He came back strong this year for Richmond, posting a nice 2.72 ERA, 1.189 WHIP and an okay 8.1 K/9. He did get knocked around in a 3 game stint with Sacramento. His age, 27 in late May, may prevent the Giants from picking him up, though.
Dusten Knight, rhp -The just turned 28 year old has been in the farm since 2013, but just got his first real chance above single A last year. He held his own in AA for 31 games last year but got bumped down to Richmond this year, despite pitching well to start with Sacramento. He also missed time with an injury this year (a common theme for this group). All told he had a good year across the board (1.71 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 29 games), yet I think he won't be protected.
Ryan Koziol, rhp - After having missed all of 2017, Koziol only got in 15 games with Augusta in 2018 (and 1 game with AZL Black). When healthy enough, he pitched well (2.55 ERA, 1.176 WHIP) but will be 25 years old next year, having never pitched above low A ball.
Rodolfo Martinez, rhp - Remember when he was the bigger prospect than Moronta? That 2016 promotion to Richmond seemed to do something to him. He spent all of 2018 with San Jose and his numbers are a far cry from what he did there in 2016. This year, he went to post a 5.769 ERA, 1.793 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9. He'll turn 25 this next April and will probably only be in Richmond as a last ditch effort to try once more to see what they got.
Jacob McCasland, rhp - He is 27 and has yet to pitch well above Augusta. He bounced between the bullpen and starting for Richmond in 2018 and had mediocre numbers (4.66 ERA, 1.505 WHIP, 6.3 K/9).
Dillon McNamara, rhp - Brought over from the Yankees in 2017, McNamara killed it with Richmond this year. He allowed only 6 earned runs in 45 innings pitched, walked only 8 batters and struck out 50! He had a rough time of it in 6 games with Sacramento and will be 27 years old in 2019, but, like Halstead, have forced at least some consideration.
Connor Overton, rhp - A 2016 indy pickup, he's only pitched in 1 Giants org game before 2018. He filled in for 3 teams from high A to AAA, with mediocre results (4.91 ERA, 1.469 WHIP and 3.2 BB/9 but 9.1 K/9) when healthy.
Olbis Parra, rhp - His first season above rookie ball turned out quite well. In 35 games for Augusta, he posted a mere 2.24 ERA, 1.112 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 1.2 BB/9 but a low 6.6 K/9. He threw two good games in a brief stint with Richmond as well. He will be 24 years old next season.
Orleny Quiroz, lhp - While old for it (25 in 2019), his stateside debut went decently in 2018, pitching in Salem-Keizer, Augusta and San Jose. Combined he posted a 3.31 ERA, 11.335 WHIP and 2.4 BB/9 in 29 games.
Nolan Riggs, rhp - After spending all of 2017 with Augusta, having a good season there, Riggs pitched mainly with San Jose in 2018, with 2 relief appearances each for Richmond and Sacramento. He wasn't too good, going with a 4.52 ERA, 4.8 BB/9 and 1.361 WHIP. He did have a nice 9.9 K/9. He'll turn 26 in late May.
Tyler Rogers, rhp - RANT ALERT! WHY THE HECK ISN"T THIS GUY NOT ALREADY IN THE BIG LEAGUES!?!?! In 130 games in the PCL (THE PCL!), he has a 2.94 ERA and 1.260 WHIP. Yes, his walk rate is a bit high (3.5) and K rate a bit low (6.4) but we are talking about the PCL. How many of the Giants' pitchers have had success in AAA in 2018? Not much. If you dismiss his 24 game stint with Sacramento in 2016, his numbers look a lot better. In 2017, it was 2.37 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 3.3 B/9 and 5.1 K/9. It got better in 2018 - 2.13 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9. I hope someone takes a chance with him in 2019.
Caleb Simpson, rhp - Drafted by the Giants in the 21st round of the 2013 draft, Simpson has only one full season under his belt. He missed all of both 2014 and 2015, most of 2016 and parts of 2018 due to injuries. When healthy for Richmond this last year, he was a study in contrasts. He posted strong numbers in ERA (1.53), HR/9 (none!) and Ks per 9 (11.4). However, his WHIP (1.739) and was per 9 (8.9) were awful! Considering his age (27 for 2019) and health history, it will be interesting o see how much longer the Giants remain patient with him.
Dan Slania, rhp - The only guy on this list with big league experience, Slania seems to have been forgotten in Richmond. His performance in 47 games there (2.47 ERA, 1.024 WHIP and 8.8 K/9) and big league time suggest he may get drafted this year.
Heath Slatton, rhp - Much like Jason Forjet, Slatton wasn't assigned to any roster in 2018, however he is not listed as retired or released. After a good season with Augusta in 2016 (2.37 ERA but 1.439 WHIP), he bounced as filler between Salem, San Jose and Sacramento in 2017, not producing anywhere (combined 8.20 ERA, 1.890 WHIP but 9.8 K/9 in 29 games).
Caleb Smith, lhp - Another guy who spent he season on a restricted list, Smith was placed on Richmond's list after a poor 2017 between (mainly) Augusta and San Jose. He is only two years removed from a good season with Augusta (1.096 WHIP, 2.35 ERA, 12.7 K/9). However, he will be 2 next season and has yet to show anything beyond low A ball.
Jesus Tona, rhp - A converted catcher, Tona just started pitching this year (well, 2 games last year with AZL). In 23 games with Salem-Keizer, he was absolutely un-hitable. He gave up a mere 17 hits and 8 walks in 31 innings, with only 3 earned runs and striking out 41 batters! Some team (I'm looking at you San Diego) would be desperate enough to pick him up.
Sam Wolff, rhp - Another would be minor league free agent, Wolff, a product of the Matt Moore trade, missed much of the first half of 2018 due to injury recovery. When healthy, he looked awful (6.91 ERA, 1.902 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9) except in Ks per 9 (12.5) However, a strong showing in the AFL will almost assuredly put the 28 year old on the 40 man roster tomorrow.

 

[LHG]

Thinking about this list, as we are about 2 hours from knowing who the Giants purchase, I believe that there are 3 for certain players that will be added - Melvin Adon, Logan Webb and Sam Wolff. That leaves 3 open spots.

The next group is likely to be added, but not all of them. They are: Jesus Tona, CJ Hinojosa and Juan dePaula. If the Giants want to make a selection again in the Rule 5 draft, at least one of them will be left off.

A third group have an outside chance of being added if a player (or players) in the 1st 2 groups are surprisingly not added. They are: Matt Winn, Manuel Geraldo, Ryan Halstead, Dusten Knight, Dillon McNamara, Tyler Rogers and Dan Slania.

 

[LHG]

For whatever reason, the Giants only purchased 3 contracts and Sam Wolff was not one of them. I expected them to pass on Sam Coonrod but they didn't. Weird.
I think the more weird part is the 3 open roster spots. I guess the Giants are going to take a guy in the Rule 5 draft and expect to pick up a couple of free agents soon. Otherwise, I have no idea why they let go of Julian Fernandez.

 

[SFGRTB]

For whatever reason, the Giants only purchased 3 contracts and Sam Wolff was not one of them. I expected them to pass on Sam Coonrod but they didn't. Weird.
I think the more weird part is the 3 open roster spots. I guess the Giants are going to take a guy in the Rule 5 draft and expect to pick up a couple of free agents soon. Otherwise, I have no idea why they let go of Julian Fernandez.

Would rather see Fernandez than Coonrod. Who knows.

The other two aren't surprising.

 

[LHG]

Would rather see Fernandez than Coonrod. Who knows.

The other two aren't surprising.

Coonrod over Wolff is a unusual move as well. Both came back from significant injuries and di not pitch well in limited appearances. Coonrod goes home for the winter while Wolff is sent to the AFL, where he looks good. I have to think that some teams will consider taking Wolff in the Rule 5. We will see.
If you think about it, of the 6 guys assigned to the AFL, 4 of them will be Rule 5 eligible this December. Two of them, Winn and Hinojosa, didn't show anything and didn't get purchased. The other two, Adon and Wolff, both looked good. Only Adon gets purchased. There are still 3 open roster spots. Why would the org let Fernandez go when they still had room and/or not purchase Wolff? I guess that are done with Fernandez, regardless of the situation and they think Wolff is either worth losing or won't be taken.

 

[Stokes1931]

Coonrod over Wolff is a unusual move as well. Both came back from significant injuries and di not pitch well in limited appearances. Coonrod goes home for the winter while Wolff is sent to the AFL, where he looks good. I have to think that some teams will consider taking Wolff in the Rule 5. We will see.
If you think about it, of the 6 guys assigned to the AFL, 4 of them will be Rule 5 eligible this December. Two of them, Winn and Hinojosa, didn't show anything and didn't get purchased. The other two, Adon and Wolff, both looked good. Only Adon gets purchased. There are still 3 open roster spots. Why would the org let Fernandez go when they still had room and/or not purchase Wolff? I guess that are done with Fernandez, regardless of the situation and they think Wolff is either worth losing or won't be taken.

Wonder how much of this tips Zaidi's hand? The six (seven) chosen to be part of the AFL this season were before Zaidi came aboard. He may not think much of the AFL crop this year. The Wolff and Rogers omissions are puzzling. Perhaps Tyler can join his brother in Minnesota and prove LHG's now two year rant prescient.

While Wolff pitched well in the AFL, he was also 4-6 years older than most of the hitters there. I saw him pitch twice, and while he pitched well, he wasn't overpowering. Adon had some sizzle on his pitches, and was a more compelling pitcher, even if some of Wolff's stats were "better".

 

[LHG]

Wonder how much of this tips Zaidi's hand? The six (seven) chosen to be part of the AFL this season were before Zaidi came aboard. He may not think much of the AFL crop this year. The Wolff and Rogers omissions are puzzling. Perhaps Tyler can join his brother in Minnesota and prove LHG's now two year rant prescient.

While Wolff pitched well in the AFL, he was also 4-6 years older than most of the hitters there. I saw him pitch twice, and while he pitched well, he wasn't overpowering. Adon had some sizzle on his pitches, and was a more compelling pitcher, even if some of Wolff's stats were "better".

I completely forgot about Garrett Williams! I also didn't think about the fact that the AFL started before Zaidi came on board. Still, why clear so many extra rosters spots? It seems like he expects to sign at least 4 free agents. There isn't much in the farm for him to trade to get players on the 40 man roster that way and doing a re-build would empty the 40 man roster, not load it. I guess we'll see in the next few weeks? Maybe some big stuff will happen at the winter meetings. Of course, this free agent market isn't nearly as exciting as the hype has been the past few years. I get the feeling that the guys he signs will be frustrating pick ups.

 

[calsnowskier]

Sure, he may have a plan to sign a shit-ton of FAs, but why does he need to clear the roster spots now?

I guess he has no faith in Fernandez, so he just cut bait on him (he required a 25 spot for the first 3 months of the season), but why punt Johnson now? Even if he HATES Johnson, that move could have taken place later with absolutely zero cost.

 

[LHG]

Sure, he may have a plan to sign a shit-ton of FAs, but why does he need to clear the roster spots now?

I guess he has no faith in Fernandez, so he just cut bait on him (he required a 25 spot for the first 3 months of the season), but why punt Johnson now? Even if he HATES Johnson, that move could have taken place later with absolutely zero cost.

Even Fernandez could have been later. If Zaidi had less experience (i.e. no GM time) I would chalk it up to not understanding the rules, thinking that he needed to clear roster space by November 20th (not protect guys from the draft by November 20th).
With Johnson, he stays in the system. Just seems like an unnecessary move. Both Fernandez and Johnson could have been kept on the 40 man roster now and two spots would still be open. If he needed space later, he could make the move at the point of need. Overall, the difference is negligible but the moves are headscratchers.

 

[calsnowskier]

Even Fernandez could have been later. If Zaidi had less experience (i.e. no GM time) I would chalk it up to not understanding the rules, thinking that he needed to clear roster space by November 20th (not protect guys from the draft by November 20th).
With Johnson, he stays in the system. Just seems like an unnecessary move. Both Fernandez and Johnson could have been kept on the 40 man roster now and two spots would still be open. If he needed space later, he could make the move at the point of need. Overall, the difference is negligible but the moves are headscratchers.

But if he knew he didn’t like Fernandez, and was not going to give him a 25 spot, it doesn’t matter when he is kicked to the curb. Johnson wasn’t eating a 25 spot. No rush on him. Fernandez was definitely not (apparently) getting a 25, so might as well boot him now.

 

[LHG]

But if he knew he didn’t like Fernandez, and was not going to give him a 25 spot, it doesn’t matter when he is kicked to the curb. Johnson wasn’t eating a 25 spot. No rush on him. Fernandez was definitely not (apparently) getting a 25, so might as well boot him now.

But if you can carry him to spring, and he does well, you can shop him. If he does poorly, return him to Colorado and get some of the money back (although I think that maybe Miami pays the Giants for the Rule 5 fee and if they return him they get half of it back, I don't know).